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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1039

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#1 | paulg235 | Posted 12/17/2011 11:57:00 PM | message detail
Link/Ganon vs Batman/Joker for Bonus match plz

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~*Character Contest Histories*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories

~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

~*All the Match Pics*~
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/index.php

~*Leonhart4's Trend Charts*~
https://spreadsheets.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?hl=en&key=tOGmynfNIiNy5VukpEF-PdA&hl=en#gid=0

~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages

~*Say What? Common Stats Topic Lingo Defined*~

SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote. This is the best example of SFF we've ever seen. However take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make perfect sense.

Extrapolated Standings - The mathematical "strength" of a contestant that's determined based on their performance relative to the rest of the field. This number is typically based on the contest entrant's loss, but adjustments are sometimes made. See above for a watered down explanation for how the stats are calculated.
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#2 | pjbasis | Posted 12/18/2011 9:04:08 AM | message detail
And the worst part is, there's no way Cloud/Tifa › Link/Zelda anymore.

Oh Romance Rumble, I hardly knew ye.
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#3 | LeonhartFour | Posted 12/18/2011 11:28:02 AM | message detail
What a shame.
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#4 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 12/18/2011 12:09:55 PM | message detail
I'd rather watch Link 90/10 Ganondorf than Link/Ganondorf 60/40 Batman/Joker.

Though I guess the latter would be nice to shut everyone up.
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Current Let's Play: Final Fantasy IV (FF2US)
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#5 | Kotetsu534 | Posted 12/18/2011 8:57:49 PM | message detail
Link/Ganon had 61.37% at the freeze, for reference.
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#6 | charmander6000 | Posted 12/18/2011 8:58:39 PM | message detail
The board vote is going to be interesting
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/Rivalry%20BOP.xls
Rivalry Rumble: 117/160 Today: Cloud/Sephiroth
#7 | jacko_vdz | Posted 12/18/2011 8:59:24 PM | message detail
I know it's probably been said a lot but #1 is hands down the best match pic of the contest.
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#8 | RockMFR 5 | Posted 12/18/2011 8:59:24 PM | message detail
1st match pic is amazing.
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#9 | _Regaro_ | Posted 12/18/2011 8:59:34 PM | message detail

From: charmander6000 | #498
If Trainers win convincingly I'm jumping on the Mario > Link wagon.


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#10 | GrapefruitKing | Posted 12/18/2011 9:00:08 PM | message detail
preidx: Trainers will actually lead until 2 AM EST, then crumble and lose 49-51
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#11 | Janus5000 | Posted 12/18/2011 9:00:22 PM | message detail
nothing will ever make me jump on a Mario > Link bandwagon unless we're talking about certain games
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#12 | tennisboy213 | Posted 12/18/2011 9:01:17 PM | message detail
Vote Accepted

Pokemon Trainer Red vs. Pokemon Trainer Blue 71.43% 25
Cloud vs. Sephiroth 28.57% 10
TOTAL VOTES 35
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#13 | Janus5000 | Posted 12/18/2011 9:01:21 PM | message detail
Pokemon Trainer Red vs. Pokemon Trainer Blue

80%




16



Cloud vs. Sephiroth

20%




4



TOTAL VOTES



20

only 80%, disappointed
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Fight like dragons, have no fear, swords are made of STEEEEEEEEL~
#14 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 12/18/2011 9:01:22 PM | message detail
That board vote.
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Current Let's Play: Final Fantasy IV (FF2US)
http://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3445328
#15 | Kotetsu534 | Posted 12/18/2011 9:01:26 PM | message detail
First vote for Cloud/Seph!
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Praise the Black Turtle, Game of the Decade Guru Champ.
(Well, I never promised creativity, did I?!)
#16 | RockMFR 5 | Posted 12/18/2011 9:01:35 PM | message detail
what a board vote!
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Be a good little washing machine, now... o_0
#17 | abdou | Posted 12/18/2011 9:01:38 PM | message detail
Damn..
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#18 | LeonhartFour | Posted 12/18/2011 9:01:41 PM | message detail
Vote Accepted

Pokemon Trainer Red vs. Pokemon Trainer Blue 70.3% 71
Cloud vs. Sephiroth 29.7% 30
TOTAL VOTES 101

Hahahahahahaha
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#19 | Xcarvenger | Posted 12/18/2011 9:01:50 PM | message detail
Pokemon Trainer Red vs. Pokemon Trainer Blue 80.95% 17
Cloud vs. Sephiroth 19.05% 4
TOTAL VOTES 21

XFD
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#20 | charmander6000 | Posted 12/18/2011 9:01:55 PM | message detail
Pokemon Trainer Red vs. Pokemon Trainer Blue 80% 12
Cloud vs. Sephiroth 20% 3
TOTAL VOTES 15

Awesome
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/Rivalry%20BOP.xls
Rivalry Rumble: 117/160 Today: Cloud/Sephiroth
#21 | Team Rocket Elite (Moderator) | Posted 12/18/2011 9:01:59 PM | message detail
Wow, that's a board vote alright.
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#22 | GrapefruitKing | Posted 12/18/2011 9:02:09 PM | message detail
bah, Trainers needed to have at least 70% right now to have a shot at winning this match
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#23 | AlecTrevelyan006 | Posted 12/18/2011 9:02:17 PM | message detail
#24 | PartOfYourWorld | Posted 12/18/2011 9:02:33 PM | message detail

From: GrapefruitKing | #022
bah, Trainers needed to have at least 70% right now to have a shot at winning this match


At least NINETY PERCENT.
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#25 | XIII_rocks | Posted 12/18/2011 9:02:42 PM | message detail
#26 | FateStayAlbion | Posted 12/18/2011 9:02:45 PM | message detail
Can Cloud gain 10% from the board vote here? I don't think Trainers are safe even with 60% at the freeze.
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#27 | charmander6000 | Posted 12/18/2011 9:02:49 PM | message detail
Let's go Mario > Link
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/Rivalry%20BOP.xls
Rivalry Rumble: 117/160 Today: Cloud/Sephiroth
#28 | Advokaiser | Posted 12/18/2011 9:02:59 PM | message detail
Vote Accepted

Pokemon Trainer Red vs. Pokemon Trainer Blue 71.76% 61
Cloud vs. Sephiroth 28.24% 24
TOTAL VOTES 85


Never. Again. NEVER.

*goes away and slams the door*
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I think I broke the LOL
#29 | legendmusketeer | Posted 12/18/2011 9:03:07 PM | message detail
What has Cloud come to?...
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LM
#30 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 12/18/2011 9:03:07 PM | message detail
100-vote barrier broken.
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Current Let's Play: Final Fantasy IV (FF2US)
http://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3445328
#31 | FateStayAlbion | Posted 12/18/2011 9:04:04 PM | message detail
#32 | Xuxon | Posted 12/18/2011 9:04:05 PM | message detail
Updater isn't active because the poll number is two higher than the last. Should have expected that with 64.jpg.
#33 | swordz9 | Posted 12/18/2011 9:04:11 PM | message detail
This is beautiful. I hope it goes on for the full 24 hours.
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#34 | LeonhartFour | Posted 12/18/2011 9:04:14 PM | message detail
Mario > Link let's do this

FIGHT THE LAW
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#35 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 12/18/2011 9:04:27 PM | message detail
Based on two minutes of data, this clearly proves Mario is the strongest character on the site and Link is always rSFFing him.
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Current Let's Play: Final Fantasy IV (FF2US)
http://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3445328
#36 | Shoenin_Kakashi | Posted 12/18/2011 9:04:45 PM | message detail
man that pokeboard vote and that ff7 board vote
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#37 | WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 12/18/2011 9:04:53 PM | message detail
Cloud/Seph are still going to run away with this, but it's fun to see anyways.
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#38 | Janus5000 | Posted 12/18/2011 9:04:59 PM | message detail
Already stalling. Disappointed.
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Fight like dragons, have no fear, swords are made of STEEEEEEEEL~
#39 | GrapefruitKing | Posted 12/18/2011 9:05:08 PM | message detail
psh, Trainers won't even be over 60% at the freeze
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#40 | LeonhartFour | Posted 12/18/2011 9:05:54 PM | message detail
Already under 60%

Cloud/Sephiroth's victory is guaranteed.
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#41 | Advokaiser | Posted 12/18/2011 9:06:27 PM | message detail
So Mario > Link could actually be POSSIBLE!
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I think I broke the LOL
#42 | XIII_rocks | Posted 12/18/2011 9:06:34 PM | message detail
Lead of 145 at the freeze.

The lead seemed to steadily increase throughout tbqh. Will probably still lose though =(
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#43 | LeonhartFour | Posted 12/18/2011 9:06:45 PM | message detail
Also, it's ironic that the match that literally counts for absolutely nothing could be the only really good match we have.
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#44 | Ngamer64 | Posted 12/18/2011 9:06:45 PM | message detail
Website got confused because of the skipped ID number, working now.

http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=4573&num=2
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#45 | FateStayAlbion | Posted 12/18/2011 9:08:12 PM | message detail | (edited)
So whats the biggest change in % from the freeze in a match? (not counting L-Block)
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#46 | tee316 | Posted 12/18/2011 9:07:23 PM | message detail
This will be fun to watch while we wait for Link to come in and destroy Mario again.
#47 | jacko_vdz | Posted 12/18/2011 9:07:37 PM | message detail
So right now... Trainers > Link haha
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"I am riding the Poke-wave, using the metaphorical Surf and hopping on my Blastoise, all the way to Mario vs Bowser." - RPGLord
#48 | charmander6000 | Posted 12/18/2011 9:08:33 PM | message detail
Updated Top 10

Top 10 Smallest 24h Vote Gaps
1. Squall Leonhart/Seifer Almasy – 26064 vs. Sora/Riku – 25356 – Round 3 - 708
2. Sora/Riku – 24538 vs. Dante/Vergil – 23715 – Round 2 - 823
3. Frog/Magus – 25211 vs. Chell/GlaDOS – 23729 – Round 2 – 1482
4. Mega Man X/Zero – 27259 vs. Sub-Zero/Scorpion – 24462 – Round 3 – 2797
5. Alucard/Dracula – 24561 vs. Frog/Magus – 21563 – Round 3 - 2998
6. Samus Aran/Ridley – 27360 vs. Big Boss/The Boss – 23810 – Round 3 – 3550
7. Mario/Bowser – 28859 vs. Red/Blue – 23011 – Round 5 - 5848
8. Big Boss/The Boss – 25862 vs. Chris Redfield/Albert Wesker – 19833 – Round 2 – 6029
9. Alucard/Dracula – 27431 vs. Phoenix Wright/Miles Edgeworth – 20976 – Round 2 – 6455
10. Link/Ganondorf – 34370 vs. Cloud Strife/Sephiroth – 24625 – Round 5 - 9745

Top 10 Most Popular 24h Polls
1. Link/Ganondorf vs. Cloud Strife/Sephiroth – Round 5 - 58995
2. Red/Blue vs. Ryu/Ken – Round 3 – 58843
3. Cloud Strife/Sephiroth vs. Solid Snake/Liquid Snake – Round 3 - 58655
4. Link/Ganondorf vs. Amaterasu/Orochi – Round 2 – 56036
5. Red/Blue vs. Samus Aran/Ridley – Round 4 - 55122
6. Red/Blue vs. Luigi/Waluigi – Round 2 – 54534
7. Link/Ganondorf vs. Alucard/Dracula – Round 4 - 54038
8. Mario/Bowser vs. Mega Man X/Zero – Round 4 - 53925
9. Mario/Bowser vs. Sonic the Hedgehog/Dr. Robotnik – Round 3 - 53823
10. Cloud Strife/Sephiroth vs. Kratos/Zeus – Round 2 - 52479

Top 10 Most Impressive 24h Losers
1. Sora/Riku – Round 3 – 25356
2. Cloud Strife/Sephiroth – Round 5 - 24625
3. Sub-Zero/Scorpion – Round 3 – 24462
4. Big Boss/The Boss – Round 3 - 23810
5. Chell/GlaDOS – Round 2 – 23729
6. Dante/Vergil – Round 2 – 23715
7. Ryu/Ken – Round 3 – 23514
8. Red/Blue – Round 5 - 23011
9. Solid Snake/Liquid Snake – Round 3 – 22220
10. Samus Aran/Ridley – Round 4 - 21735
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/Rivalry%20BOP.xls
Rivalry Rumble: 117/160 Today: Cloud/Sephiroth
#49 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 12/18/2011 9:10:12 PM | message detail | (edited)
59.17% at the freeze.

I said that I'd disappear in another thread, but the possibility of the Pokemon trainers collapsing and potentially losing despite a 59-41 beatdown after 5 minutes is just too good to pass up.

What % would the FFVII guys need so that the Snakes finish ahead of the premier Street Fighters and/or the Metroid team?
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#50 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 12/18/2011 9:08:55 PM | message detail
First 3 minutes of vote totals for Trainers/Cloud:

Time | Trainers | Cloud
12:02 AM | 164 | 90
12:03 AM | 257 | 153
12:04 AM | 331 | 204

If creativename sees this, those could be added as well.
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