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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1038

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#251 | LeonhartFour | Posted 12/17/2011 9:08:47 PM | message detail

From: transience | #238
this isn't unusual to you guys, is it? OOT was doing the same thing to FF7.


OoT was like 2.5% under this against FFVII at the freeze.
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#252 | Team Rocket Elite (Moderator) | Posted 12/17/2011 9:08:54 PM | message detail
Score-Brackets-% Right
128----4------------50.00
127----6------------83.33
126----4------------75.00
125----3------------66.67
124----5------------80.00
123----11----------100.00
122----14----------100.00
121----7------------85.71
120----180--------99.44
119----35----------94.29
118----33----------78.79
117----38----------89.47
116----61----------90.16
115----105--------95.24
114----110--------83.64
113----110--------92.73
112----125--------88.80
111----140--------84.29
110----371--------93.80
109----191--------86.91
108----200--------80.50
107----223--------85.65
106----248--------84.27
105----251--------86.45
104----287--------83.97
103----337--------87.83
102----313--------84.35
101----335--------85.37
100----337--------85.16
99------376--------85.37
98------341--------81.23
97------381--------81.10
96------357--------82.35
95------407--------83.54
94------398--------83.17
93------380--------80.79
92------392--------81.12
91------377--------78.25
90------382--------81.15
89------369--------79.67
88------340--------77.94
87------367--------80.38
86------364--------74.73
85------326--------74.85
84------288--------76.04
83------267--------64.04
82------299--------72.58
81------251--------63.35
80------256--------60.94
79------253--------61.26
78------206--------62.62
77------232--------53.88
76------208--------54.81
75------222--------51.80
74------176--------48.86
73------187--------51.87
72------147--------53.06
71------146--------49.32
70------144--------47.22
69------155--------49.68
68------137--------40.88
67------131--------34.35
66------123--------39.84
65------127--------35.43
64------113--------33.63
63------105--------36.19
62------116--------38.79
61------98----------25.51
60------94----------24.47
59------86----------24.42
58------91----------21.98
57------64----------25.00
56------69----------18.84
55------69----------13.04
54------56----------10.71
53------65----------13.85
52------66----------12.12
51------56----------7.14
50------59----------11.86
49------52----------7.69
48------53----------5.66
47------48----------10.42
46------37----------8.11
45------44----------11.36
44------36----------2.78
43------36----------5.56
42------52----------5.77

40------31----------6.45
39------19----------5.26
38------42----------14.29
37------25----------4.00

35------15----------6.67

32------14----------7.14

27------6------------16.67

25------5------------20.00

17------3------------33.33

15------4------------50.00

Nearly 70% support for Mario in the finals. Not bad at all. Looking at the top 54 brackets, they had roughly 84% support for Mario. The tiers below them do slightly better with high 80s to low 90s support for Mario. The prediction percentage fades from there.

7 people fell off the top 50. Former third place GranzonEx, Sentsuizan, LlednarTwem, Big_Bob, trogita2, zora32 and antony2k3 did not have Mario/Bowser winning the match.
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#253 | Kotetsu534 | Posted 12/17/2011 9:09:12 PM | message detail
Horrific votals though - under 700 at the freeze for Link vs. Cloud.
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#254 | FastFalcon05 | Posted 12/17/2011 9:09:13 PM | message detail
The same reason Link/Ganon is crushing Cloud/Seph should be the same reason Mario/Bowser destroys Link/Ganon.

Cloud/Seph is a one-off (or one-off plus spinoffs rivalry) whereas Link v. Ganon goes on across multiple games, systems, etc.

If there is any justice, Mario/Bowser would beat Link/Ganon for the same reason. Alas...
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#255 | charmander6000 | Posted 12/17/2011 9:09:18 PM | message detail
Updated Top 10

Top 10 Closest Matches
1. Squall Leonhart/Seifer Almasy – 50.69% vs. Sora/Riku – 49.31% – Round 3 – 1.38%
2. Sora/Riku – 50.85% vs. Dante/Vergil – 49.15% - Round 2 – 1.70%
3. Frog/Magus – 51.51% vs. Chell/GlaDOS – 48.49% - Round 2 – 3.02%
4. Mega Man X/Zero – 52.70% vs. Sub-Zero/Scorpion – 47.30% - Round 3 – 5.40%
5. Alucard/Dracula – 53.25% vs. Frog/Magus – 46.75% - Round 3 – 6.50%
6. Samus Aran/Ridley – 53.47% vs. Big Boss/The Boss – 46.53% – Round 3 – 6.94%
7. Luigi/Waluigi – 55.28% vs. Cecil Harvey/Golbez – 44.72% - Round 1 – 10.56%
8. Mario/Bowser – 55.61% vs. Red/Blue – 44.39% - Round 5 – 11.22%
9. Siegfried/Nightmare – 55.68% vs. Ramza Beoulve/Delita Hyral – 44.32% - Round 1 – 11.36%
10. Frog/Magus – 56.13% vs. Raiden/Vamp – 43.87% - Round 1 – 12.26%

Top 10 Smallest 24h Vote Gaps
1. Squall Leonhart/Seifer Almasy – 26064 vs. Sora/Riku – 25356 – Round 3 - 708
2. Sora/Riku – 24538 vs. Dante/Vergil – 23715 – Round 2 - 823
3. Frog/Magus – 25211 vs. Chell/GlaDOS – 23729 – Round 2 – 1482
4. Mega Man X/Zero – 27259 vs. Sub-Zero/Scorpion – 24462 – Round 3 – 2797
5. Alucard/Dracula – 24561 vs. Frog/Magus – 21563 – Round 3 - 2998
6. Samus Aran/Ridley – 27360 vs. Big Boss/The Boss – 23810 – Round 3 – 3550
7. Mario/Bowser – 28859 vs. Red/Blue – 23011 – Round 5 - 5848
8. Big Boss/The Boss – 25862 vs. Chris Redfield/Albert Wesker – 19833 – Round 2 – 6029
9. Alucard/Dracula – 27431 vs. Phoenix Wright/Miles Edgeworth – 20976 – Round 2 – 6455
10. Samus Aran/Ridley – 30282 vs. Terra Branford/Kefka Palazzo – 19530 – Round 2 – 10752

Top 10 Least Impressive 24h Winners
1. Sora/Riku – Round 2 – 24538
2. Alucard/Dracula – Round 3 - 24561
3. Frog/Magus – Round 2 - 25211
4. Big Boss/The Boss – Round 2 – 25862
5. Squall Leonhart/Seifer Almasy – Round 3 - 26064
6. Mega Man X/Zero – Round 3 – 27259
7. Samus Aran/Ridley – Round 3 - 27360
8. Alucard/Dracula – Round 2 – 27431
9. Mario/Bowser – Round 5 - 28859
10. Ryu/Ken – Round 2 – 29617

Top 10 Most Impressive 24h Losers
1. Sora/Riku – Round 3 - 25356
2. Sub-Zero/Scorpion – Round 3 – 24462
3. Big Boss/The Boss – Round 3 - 23810
4. Chell/GlaDOS – Round 2 – 23729
5. Dante/Vergil – Round 2 – 23715
6. Ryu/Ken – Round 3 – 23514
7. Red/Blue – Round 5 - 23011
8. Solid Snake/Liquid Snake – Round 3 – 22220
9. Samus Aran/Ridley – Round 4 - 21735
10. Frog/Magus – Round 3 - 21563
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/Rivalry%20BOP.xls
Rivalry Rumble: 117/144 Today: Cloud/Sephiroth
#256 | LeonhartFour | Posted 12/17/2011 9:09:22 PM | message detail

From: vcharon | #250
Cloud won the board vote


LOL
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#257 | Kibago | Posted 12/17/2011 9:09:23 PM | message detail
RIP Link Allowed in Contests 2002-2011

it's been fun
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#258 | SuperNiceDog | Posted 12/17/2011 9:09:24 PM | message detail
"XD gamefaqs so terrible."

nah its cool to like Link. He has bombs, hookshots, arrows, and also fairys.

Don't forget his green tunic!
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#259 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 12/17/2011 9:09:30 PM | message detail
nintendogirl1 (Moderator) | Posted 12/18/2011 12:07:28 AM | message detail | quote
Also - votals.

Where they at?


It's too early to make a prediction on where they will finish at, because using the first 5 minutes is not going to give you an accurate idea at all. But yeah, it fell about 300 short of breaking 1000. I was almost sure we wouldn't break 1000 at the freeze, as there are only about 4400 users online right now.
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#260 | red sox 777 | Posted 12/17/2011 9:09:33 PM | message detail
One Winged Angel is a great theme song.......for Link. Think about what makes Sephiroth cool and super powerful and stuff. Link is like that, in these contests, except more powerful.
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2002 Link, 2003 Cloud, 2004 Link, 2005 Link, 2006 Link, 2008 Link, 2010 Link, 2011 Cloud.
Link 6, Cloud 2
#261 | Kotetsu534 | Posted 12/17/2011 9:09:53 PM | message detail
*listens to Aerith's Theme*
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Praise the Black Turtle, Game of the Decade Guru Champ.
(Well, I never promised creativity, did I?!)
#262 | Lopen | Posted 12/17/2011 9:10:11 PM | message detail

From: WarThaNemesis2 | #246
BOLD PREDICTION: Mario/Bowser does better on Link/Ganon than Cloud/Sephiroth do.


Bah I already did this one

Just without the BOLD

But suffice to say I approve this prediction.

I'm surprised to hear that Link always goes up the second update though. That's kinda weird.
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#263 | SnoicFactor | Posted 12/17/2011 9:10:45 PM | message detail
Yeah no hope for this site. nintendrones are rampant.. Mario and pokemon would have prob beat cloud.
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#264 | vcharon | Posted 12/17/2011 9:11:10 PM | message detail
Up Link goes
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:>
#265 | LeonhartFour | Posted 12/17/2011 9:11:23 PM | message detail
#266 | charmander6000 | Posted 12/17/2011 9:11:29 PM | message detail
XD he went even higher
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/Rivalry%20BOP.xls
Rivalry Rumble: 117/144 Today: Cloud/Sephiroth
#267 | FateStayAlbion | Posted 12/17/2011 9:11:45 PM | message detail
#268 | Kotetsu534 | Posted 12/17/2011 9:11:46 PM | message detail
Link, hold back at once!
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Praise the Black Turtle, Game of the Decade Guru Champ.
(Well, I never promised creativity, did I?!)
#269 | red sox 777 | Posted 12/17/2011 9:11:47 PM | message detail
There you have it- Link's 2nd update gain. Only half a percent though, less than it usually is.
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2002 Link, 2003 Cloud, 2004 Link, 2005 Link, 2006 Link, 2008 Link, 2010 Link, 2011 Cloud.
Link 6, Cloud 2
#270 | vcharon | Posted 12/17/2011 9:11:54 PM | message detail
You guys are still selling Link short even with all the evidence in front of you. I've gotta see Link wreck Mario like he did Mega Man, hilarious it'll be.
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:>
#271 | SnoicFactor | Posted 12/17/2011 9:12:03 PM | message detail
#272 | TheOneAboveAll | Posted 12/17/2011 9:12:04 PM | message detail
This... this doesn't make any sense. Why would having Seph hurt Cloud so much?
#273 | WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 12/17/2011 9:12:10 PM | message detail
#274 | pjbasis | Posted 12/17/2011 9:12:11 PM | message detail
Link would have doubled Snake or something?

XFD
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#275 | CP724 | Posted 12/17/2011 9:12:14 PM | message detail
I don't buy Cloud recovering here. Link looks too strong, Cloud won the board vote and Link is not letting up. I'm with Lopen; Link goes to 62% on the next update

Have you missed trends from the last billion contests?
#276 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 12/17/2011 9:12:22 PM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=4571&region=US

Well, there's your problem on why Link is doing so well early on. Though Link is under 59% in Canada though.
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#277 | transience | Posted 12/17/2011 9:12:30 PM | message detail
this is a dozen Zelda games vs. FF7. Mario would probably beat Cloud.

which leads us to Cloud vs. Red. could be an ugly-ass board vote.
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xyzzy
#278 | EmDubyaSee | Posted 12/17/2011 9:12:31 PM | message detail

From: CP724 | #244
I think if FFVII was remade and it was super well recived like the original Cloud would own Link but until then Cloud is gonna have to enjoy this 55-45 and probbaly worse in the years after this.




Nope. No, not ever again, not after this. There truly is no turning back. That might put him back to 50.5 losses, instead of the 56 this is going to be, but never will he ever beat Link again. This is it. I always figured Final Fantasy VII itself was the 3rd strongest entity on this site after LoZ (Series) and Ocarina of Time. But this is Cloud and Seph, this is Final Fantasy VII, against Link, and Link is destroying what I thought to be untouchable by character. Link is now the 3rd strongest entity on this site, and I am now tempted to at least take him over Ocarina of Time. OoT could not put this on FF VII. I am pretty confident LoZ (series) could put this one VII though.
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From: Regaro_Ukiera |
MWC is god-tier
#279 | MarioSuperstar | Posted 12/17/2011 9:12:46 PM | message detail
It's not that Seph is hurting Cloud. Link just isn't losing in anything.
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#280 | ZFS | Posted 12/17/2011 9:13:05 PM | message detail
Need Link to just get as high as possible. A 58%+ finish beats the usual 54/46!
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#281 | Lopen | Posted 12/17/2011 9:13:48 PM | message detail

From: transience | #277
this is a dozen Zelda games vs. FF7. Mario would probably beat Cloud.

which leads us to Cloud vs. Red. could be an ugly-ass board vote.


This

It's a series contest, with one game rivalries being hamstrung. Rivalry factor is a sham.
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This is a cute and pop genocide of love!
#282 | FastFalcon05 | Posted 12/17/2011 9:14:24 PM | message detail
A characters vs. games/series contest would be very strange, but intriguing.

Probably have horrific vote totals though...
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#283 | charmander6000 | Posted 12/17/2011 9:14:59 PM | message detail
With this kind of a performance I wouldn't be surprised if SBAllen retires Link.

Trainers vs. Cloud/Sephiroth may be interesting.
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/Rivalry%20BOP.xls
Rivalry Rumble: 117/144 Today: Cloud/Sephiroth
#284 | GuessMyUserName | Posted 12/17/2011 9:15:16 PM | message detail
... oh hey, another alt of mine just made the leaderboard >_>
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#285 | JJH777 | Posted 12/17/2011 9:15:18 PM | message detail
So Nintendo boost after losing half our voters?
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#286 | WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 12/17/2011 9:15:56 PM | message detail | (edited)
I'm expecting Red/Blue to be at least doubling Cloud/Sephiroth at the freeze tomorrow.

Edit: And still lose.
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#287 | spooky96 | Posted 12/17/2011 9:15:55 PM | message detail
Asia is the best place....where I LIVE INDIA!!!!

Link vs. Ganondorf 29.41%
Cloud Strife vs. Sephiroth 70.59%
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#288 | ExThaNemesis | Posted 12/17/2011 9:16:02 PM | message detail

From: JJH777 | #285
So Nintendo boost after losing half our voters?


It would follow that all the no-lifers that still hang around here are the Link drones!
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#289 | CP724 | Posted 12/17/2011 9:16:10 PM | message detail
Nope. No, not ever again, not after this. There truly is no turning back. That might put him back to 50.5 losses, instead of the 56 this is going to be, but never will he ever beat Link again. This is it. I always figured Final Fantasy VII itself was the 3rd strongest entity on this site after LoZ (Series) and Ocarina of Time. But this is Cloud and Seph, this is Final Fantasy VII, against Link, and Link is destroying what I thought to be untouchable by character. Link is now the 3rd strongest entity on this site, and I am now tempted to at least take him over Ocarina of Time. OoT could not put this on FF VII. I am pretty confident LoZ (series) could put this one VII though

Dude Cloud and Seph got the vast majority of their strength from one game and it's been out for like 15 years, a remake that's well recieved would for sure at the very least put Cloud slightly over Link again.
#290 | Dr_Football | Posted 12/17/2011 9:16:18 PM | message detail
higher and higher we go
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Fire Todd Haley
#291 | vcharon | Posted 12/17/2011 9:16:18 PM | message detail
I'm going to bed.
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:>
#292 | ZFS | Posted 12/17/2011 9:16:22 PM | message detail
Greatest of all time.
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"When I was a young man, I had liberty, but I did not see it. I had time, but I did not know it."
#293 | charmander6000 | Posted 12/17/2011 9:16:33 PM | message detail
This is getting better.
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/Rivalry%20BOP.xls
Rivalry Rumble: 117/144 Today: Cloud/Sephiroth
#294 | red sox 777 | Posted 12/17/2011 9:16:33 PM | message detail
Again. Wow.
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2002 Link, 2003 Cloud, 2004 Link, 2005 Link, 2006 Link, 2008 Link, 2010 Link, 2011 Cloud.
Link 6, Cloud 2
#295 | transience | Posted 12/17/2011 9:16:35 PM | message detail
damn you ff7 board vote
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xyzzy
#296 | pjbasis | Posted 12/17/2011 9:16:38 PM | message detail
#297 | SnoicFactor | Posted 12/17/2011 9:16:42 PM | message detail
I still dont get why this site likes zelda so much.. Most are mediocre
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#298 | The Mana Sword | Posted 12/17/2011 9:16:42 PM | message detail
dat ff7 board vote
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#299 | WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 12/17/2011 9:16:44 PM | message detail
Link isn't slowing down, just wait until the FF7 Power Hour ends this'll get to a doubling easy.
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#300 | spooky96 | Posted 12/17/2011 9:17:01 PM | message detail
Woops India has Link winning.
I'm one out of the 20 people who voted for Cloud in India
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