GameFAQs Contests
Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1036
Still better than Kratos's chances of being worth 40% on Mario. --- http://i43.tinypic.com/dgwh0.gif http://www.majhost.com/gallery/atukam/OHWD/snownd.gif |
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Samus was worth almost 44% on Link through as direct results as possible for a Nintendo character --- Starcraft is my life, so without it I wouldn't exist. - Artosis |
I don't see Kratos/Zeus being able to be the new and western rivalry that actually doesn't suck in this contest. Kratos isn't a Western character is he? --- Pokemon VGC2011 US Nationals - 54th place Pokemon VGC2012 NW Regional - 16th place |
From: -LusterSoldier- | #299 More like no one in Wyoming has internet access. Usually the percentages displayed there are just a by-product of Bacon's super secret contest trend simulator. --- http://www.megaupload.com/?d=77WDL08B |
Kratos
must have a legitmate chance at 40% on Mario, because that is what
direct extrapolation through Charizard says (and he's significantly
north of 40% there so he has some cushion room). It's fine if you don't
think so, but you can't seriously call that kind of result impossible. --- 2002 Link, 2003 Cloud, 2004 Link, 2005 Link, 2006 Link, 2008 Link, 2010 Link, 2011 Cloud. Link 6, Cloud 2 |
Samus was worth almost 44% on Link through as direct results as possible for a Nintendo character Mario 'aint Samus. --- 2002 Link, 2003 Cloud, 2004 Link, 2005 Link, 2006 Link, 2008 Link, 2010 Link, 2011 Cloud. Link 6, Cloud 2 |
I
seriously can because I don't see much reason to have that much respect
for his strength other than "I don't like to argue with direct
results," which is a silly counterargument anyway. --- http://img267.imageshack.us/img267/2369/mythbattlers.jpg http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v516/Sensui22/1248835958206.png |
Results >>> Personal expectations (what people call "common sense," except that it really isn't) Samus wouldn't let Charizard break 46% on her! --- 2002 Link, 2003 Cloud, 2004 Link, 2005 Link, 2006 Link, 2008 Link, 2010 Link, 2011 Cloud. Link 6, Cloud 2 |
Kratos isn't beating Big Boss and Big Boss only got 63% on Mario in his best time/Mario's worst. --- http://www.megaupload.com/?d=77WDL08B |
From: red sox 777 | #308 There's a contradiction in this post somewhere. --- "I can set you free, mate." "My freedom was forfeit long ago!" |
There
isn't. Samus has years and years of results backing up her strength,
and last contest, she put up her most impressive performance ever
breaking 47% on Cloud. --- 2002 Link, 2003 Cloud, 2004 Link, 2005 Link, 2006 Link, 2008 Link, 2010 Link, 2011 Cloud. Link 6, Cloud 2 |
Anyway, I'm tired of arguing this. Yesterday's chart: Time | Red/Blue | Samley | Votes | Demographic EBV | 67.71% | 32.29% | 799 | (0:00-0:05) PHV | 64.26% | 35.74% | 5230 | (0:00-1:00) FNV | 61.44% | 38.56% | 10665 | (1:00-6:00) BSV | 58.36% | 41.64% | 6047 | (6:00-9:00) DSV | 58.58% | 41.42% | 12985 | (9:00-14:30) ASV | 61.00% | 39.00% | 16956 | (14:30-22:00) SNV | 61.56% | 38.44% | 3239 | (22:00-24:00) These trends are pretty different than what Samus is used to seeing, but that's what happens when you face someone with stronger Nintendo trends than you, I guess. --- "I can set you free, mate." "My freedom was forfeit long ago!" |
From: red sox 777 | #311 So you're trying to say Mario wouldn't match said performance or come that close to it? (Hint: Samus is probably overrated based on that Cloud match anyway) --- "The great GF...Bahamut." "...GF? I...? Using my powers...It is you humans...I fear..." |
So you're trying to say Mario wouldn't match said performance or come that close to it? (Hint: Samus is probably overrated based on that Cloud match anyway) He would not match it. Come close, that depends on what you mean by close. I'd go with 2-4% worse than Samus if making a guess. And there's no reason for Samus or Snake to have been overrated against Cloud- if they were overrated in those matches, they're going to be just as overrated in every match against Cloud/Seph in the future, which means they are not really overrated at all. --- 2002 Link, 2003 Cloud, 2004 Link, 2005 Link, 2006 Link, 2008 Link, 2010 Link, 2011 Cloud. Link 6, Cloud 2 |
So
is it pretty well accepted that we're going to finish with 61 perfect
battle brackets? I can't believe not one of us took Samus or Sora/Riku --- Toronto Maple Leafs: 15-10-3, 33 Points, 6th Place Toronto Raptors: 0-0 |
From: IngmarBirdman | #275 Samus vs. Ridley is better represented by the Metroid series than any individual game within it, and the values for the series are probably somewhat inaccurate considering the juggernaut it ran into --- thelefty for analysis crew 2008 imo -tranny I have a third degree burn in flame-o-nomics -Sir Chris |
Go Link! vanquish evil with your master sword --- MMM... cookies |
So
is it pretty well accepted that we're going to finish with 61 perfect
battle brackets? I can't believe not one of us took Samus or Sora/Riku No. Some brackets will take a risk on Cloud/Sephiroth because they don't have a good enough tiebreaker to win a prize if Link wins and are unlikely to want to take the Mario upset. --- Pokemon VGC2011 US Nationals - 54th place Pokemon VGC2012 NW Regional - 16th place |
Some people should feel the pressure to go for a win in the semifinals. --- 2002 Link, 2003 Cloud, 2004 Link, 2005 Link, 2006 Link, 2008 Link, 2010 Link, 2011 Cloud. Link 6, Cloud 2 |
From: red sox 777 | #314 Except the standard isn't Cloud. It's Link. If the standard were Cloud, you'd have a valid point. --- "So cold. I am always by your side." "There ain't no gettin' off of this train we on!" |
Except the standard isn't Cloud. It's Link. If the standard were Cloud, you'd have a valid point. Are you saying that Cloud overperformed on Link? Because he didn't. If you mean that Cloud anti-votes matter the least against Link, yes, that's true, but it's a minimal difference between an opponent that gets 53% or 47%. It's when you get to the 70s that the anti-votes start to make a big difference x-stats wise. --- 2002 Link, 2003 Cloud, 2004 Link, 2005 Link, 2006 Link, 2008 Link, 2010 Link, 2011 Cloud. Link 6, Cloud 2 |
I
see no reason at all to assume Samus is stronger than Mario, if
anything I'd take Mario to be indirectly stronger against Cloud and
Sephiroth. --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
The
reason I see Mario at 45% as impossible is because Link got 64.5% on
Mario directly. Link has consistently scored in the low-mid 60s on
Mario for many years, with actual strength ranging from 60% to a few
points higher than that. In 2010, Link put up the same performance he
always does on Mario. And we're supposed to believe that he fell to 55% on Mario, that's half the smallest gap that has ever existed between Link and Mario, and simultaneously made up the difference by increasing his SFF powers? Even though he couldn't really SFF Luigi much (compare with the demolition he put on Yoshi once)? We're supposed to believe he SFF'd Mario 3-4 times harder than he has done in the past? --- 2002 Link, 2003 Cloud, 2004 Link, 2005 Link, 2006 Link, 2008 Link, 2010 Link, 2011 Cloud. Link 6, Cloud 2 |
All the while believing Samus is worth 44% on Link, despite never coming that close before, of course. --- "So cold. I am always by your side." "There ain't no gettin' off of this train we on!" |
From: th3l3fty | #264 you know that calculator is inaccurate for values above 50 right the actual percentage for those two values would be 79.36% |
Samus
is overrated because she didn't go the full 24 hours with Cloud. As for
Mario being stronger indirectly, well, he should probably put up a
performance once in awhile giving us some actual confidence in that, but
it's a legit (perhaps even majority) stance. That being said, I have a
hard time envisioning even a bandwagon Charizard putting up 47% on
Cloud. --- http://i48.tinypic.com/1ryijd.jpg http://fc03.deviantart.com/fs14/f/2007/020/b/f/Ariel_by_lolita_art.jpg |
Man,
this is why I don't come around here too often in the off season. Too
many crazy people with insane ideas (generally they are all about
Samus). --- :> |
Samus
and Snake got the performances to prove it. Besides, Samus was already
worth 40% on a stronger Link back in 2004. She has a history of being
substantially stronger than Mario, Mario only has a history of being
even with Samus (maybe slightly stronger at best). But if you want to say Samus is weaker than 44% on Link, that's a whole lot better than claiming Mario is at 45% on Link.* Maybe it's the totally boring contest we have going here, but even thinking about that 45% claim makes me angry. It feels like a slap in the face more than anything else. *Objectively, it's probably not any better. But it doesn't trigger feelings of anger or frustration. --- 2002 Link, 2003 Cloud, 2004 Link, 2005 Link, 2006 Link, 2008 Link, 2010 Link, 2011 Cloud. Link 6, Cloud 2 |
Then let me ask you this: Mario vs. Samus tomorrow: What happens? --- http://images.cheezburger.com/completestore/2011/8/22/2094c2de-bae8-4f5b-9f27-67eaff0aaeaf.jpg |
Mario, of course. SFF, same as last time. Well, in result anyway, it's probably closer this time. --- 2002 Link, 2003 Cloud, 2004 Link, 2005 Link, 2006 Link, 2008 Link, 2010 Link, 2011 Cloud. Link 6, Cloud 2 |
Samus has looked absolutely horrible this contest, I can't believe people really still believe this. --- :> |
From: vcharon | #331 Irrelevant for projecting a 1-on-1 result. --- http://i848.photobucket.com/albums/ab48/Leonhart4/Squall.jpg |
rSFF, you mean? I don't see any real difference in SFF mechanics if a character is at 50.1%, 50.0%, or 49.9%. If Mario can 60/40 Samus from a 50/50 match, he can SFF her when he's at 47% on her. I.e. Mario probably would have won in 2004 too, but it'd have been closer. --- 2002 Link, 2003 Cloud, 2004 Link, 2005 Link, 2006 Link, 2008 Link, 2010 Link, 2011 Cloud. Link 6, Cloud 2 |
So what makes Samus indirectly stronger then. --- "Why must we always choose between certain death and probable death?" "I'm in an epic battle to the death, FIGURE IT OUT YOURSELF!" |
She gets a better percentage against any non-Nintendo character. --- 2002 Link, 2003 Cloud, 2004 Link, 2005 Link, 2006 Link, 2008 Link, 2010 Link, 2011 Cloud. Link 6, Cloud 2 |
What makes that advantage go away when she faces Mario if she's stronger indirectly. That's the thing that's always bothered me about claiming rSFF in the first place. If you're stronger to begin with, why aren't you winning? --- http://www.miscupload.com/upload/452457071929141623517416.gif |
Not
sure what happened with Luigi, but if you just consider how much Link
SFFed Sonic and apply that to Mario it brings him up in Samus's range.
You really don't think that's plausible, red sox? |
I
don't find it "irrelevant" completely, but whatever. If the overall
goal here is to rank characters based on their indirect strength,
there's no way Samus can be above Mario. The fact this contest is duos
allows people who want to still believe that about Samus to keep their
delusions alive; it shouldn't be fed. --- :> |
What makes that advantage go away when she faces Mario if she's stronger indirectly. That's the thing that's always bothered me about claiming rSFF in the first place. If you're stronger to begin with, why aren't you winning? The overlapping fanbase favors Mario disproportionately. In this case, the Nintendo fanbase prefers Mario but will usually vote either of them over non-Nintendo characters. Samus gets more votes from outside the Ninty fanbase. Do you think Mario wouldn't have won in 2004? I don't see how 10 points of SFF should suddenly disappear just because we cross a line from 50/50 to 49/51. I would perhaps say that under the theory that says rSFF can't exist, 10 points of SFF cannot exist in a 50/50 match either (or a 52/48 match for that matter). But Mario/Samus proves that large amounts of SFF can and do occur in essentially even matches. --- 2002 Link, 2003 Cloud, 2004 Link, 2005 Link, 2006 Link, 2008 Link, 2010 Link, 2011 Cloud. Link 6, Cloud 2 |
Not
sure what happened with Luigi, but if you just consider how much Link
SFFed Sonic and apply that to Mario it brings him up in Samus's range.
You really don't think that's plausible, red sox? Link didn't even SFF Sonic that hard. It felt good after a string of disappointments, and for the novelty of seeing a Noble Niner held under 30%, but objectively wasn't that great. Cloud put 66% on a stronger Sonic before, after all......Link/Sonic SFF would not be sufficient to bridge the gap between Link's actual 64.5% score on Mario and the theoretical 55% being thrown around. It would land Mario in the low 40s, which sounds about right to me, and is already the highest he's ever been relative to Link. The more important thing than Sonic though is past Link/Mario matches. Link has never hit Mario very hard with SFF before; why would he start now, in his weakest year ever relative to Mario? Also, comparing Snake and Mario: Snake put 53% on Sephiroth. Mario put 53% on Charizard. That really should say it all I think. --- 2002 Link, 2003 Cloud, 2004 Link, 2005 Link, 2006 Link, 2008 Link, 2010 Link, 2011 Cloud. Link 6, Cloud 2 |
From: red sox 777 | #1608 No, she USED to have a history of looking stronger than Mario pre-2K5. In 2K5 everything changed and Mario has looked at least her equal ever since. From: red sox 777 | #1654 There's definitely a difference. rSFF has zero - literally, zero - evidence for ever occurring. It is purely a "maybe this exists but we have nothing to back it" thing at this point. It has no place in any real discussion. Remember, Mario was different pre-2K5. And we've seen SFF situations switch before. Sora/Aeris for instance. Cloud/Sephiroth probably as well - remember that Seph probably beats Cloud in 2K2. He was very close the next year, despite Cloud having a much bigger role in KH. Plus most FF7 fanbase members at the time will tell you Seph was preferred to Cloud back then (prior to KH). But that whole situation switched, *big* time. Now Cloud not only easily beats Seph, he SFF-trounces him. In a situation that has a lot of parallels to Mario/Samus. So we've already seen situations where a weaker character has gone on to increase strength, enough to badly SFF the formerly stronger one. In all likelihood, this is exactly what happened in Mario/Samus. It's the simplest possible explanation, and the one that fits the data the best by far. Mario was once weaker than Samus, and would have lost to her. But then "The Shift"/"The Mario Boost" happened and ever since, Mario has been stronger and has had the SFF powers. --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
Honestly,
arguing Samus vs. Mario at the level they're at is irrelevant. Mario
vs. Samus directly will never get another debate, and do people really
take Samus to beat someone but not Mario and vice-versa? If Samus can
drain Snake's Nintendo support, Mario can do much worse, and well, I
don't trust Sephiroth against anyone of elite strength. 53% on a
rally-lacking Missingno and 56% on Tifa doesn't exactly inspire. I get
the feeling if you take Sephiroth or Snake over one, you take it over
the other. --- http://i259.photobucket.com/albums/hh293/zukiraphaera/war-sig-1.png http://i.imgur.com/597oi.png |
red sox 777 posted... Also, comparing Snake and Mario: Snake put 53% on Sephiroth. Mario put 53% on Charizard. That really should say it all I think. Snake was expected to get like 56% on Vincent. Samus got 50.5% on Tifa. Snake was expected to get like 57% on Ganondorf. Samus got 55% on Zelda. Snake beats Samus easily, right? --- http://i259.photobucket.com/albums/hh293/zukiraphaera/war-sig-1.png http://i.imgur.com/597oi.png |
From: red sox 777 | #1660Do you think Mario wouldn't have won in 2004? I don't see how 10 points of SFF should suddenly disappear just because we cross a line from 50/50 to 49/51. I would perhaps say that under the theory that says rSFF can't exist, 10 points of SFF cannot exist in a 50/50 match either (or a 52/48 match for that matter). But Mario/Samus proves that large amounts of SFF can and do occur in essentially even matches. Your match is off. 10 points doesn't need to be switched. If he was once at 47% on her, he just needs to boost to 53% and then SFF the rest. And guess what, Mario got smashed 53% by Crono one year. Then he smashed Crono with almost 54% the next. He boosted. Plain and simple. The level of that boost - almost 7 points based just off Crono - would account for most of a Mario/Samus shift. The rest is accounted for by SFF. It doesn't seem like a complicated situation. This isn't really rocket science. Things change. These contests are very dynamic. The Mario who beat Samus was far different than any Mario previously seen. --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
Let
me just say that next CB, assuming it doesn't have goofiness in the
format, just plain needs to force Snake/Mario with winner facing Samus,
winner of that facing Cloud. That way we don't waste any
elites/near-elites as Cloud/Samus/Snake/Mario fodder, and we'll see who
really thinks Samus > Mario indirectly! Samus > Mario 2005 pickers
will have a chance at the ultimate justification! --- http://i259.photobucket.com/albums/hh293/zukiraphaera/war-sig-1.png http://i.imgur.com/597oi.png |
No,
she USED to have a history of looking stronger than Mario pre-2K5. In
2K5 everything changed and Mario has looked at least her equal ever
since. Until 2010, when Samus posted more impressive numbers again. And Mario has looked like Samus's equal indirectly since 2005, not her superior, and there's no reason Samus couldn't have gotten ahead of him again. That's what the 2010 numbers suggest. There's definitely a difference. rSFF has zero - literally, zero - evidence for ever occurring. It is purely a "maybe this exists but we have nothing to back it" thing at this point. It has no place in any real discussion. rSFF has 1 match backing it up. Mario/Samus. Not conclusively, but it argues more in favor it. Which may suggest it is very rare, but fortunately it is this exact pair of characters we are discussing. As far as data goes, we have data that tends to show: the bigger the strength gap, the more the SFF. So we would not expect a character that loses 65/35 to get rSFF on the other. Don't see the data that says there's any kind of hard dividing line at 50% though- that feels like a false dichotomy to me. In any case, how Mario/Samus would go directly is not terribly relevant here. If Samus is stronger, and rSFF doesn't exist, then logically Samus would win now. But that wouldn't be so strange if you think that a small change in real strength can create or eradicate 10 points of SFF just like that. --- 2002 Link, 2003 Cloud, 2004 Link, 2005 Link, 2006 Link, 2008 Link, 2010 Link, 2011 Cloud. Link 6, Cloud 2 |
Your
match is off. 10 points doesn't need to be switched. If he was once at
47% on her, he just needs to boost to 53% and then SFF the rest. And guess what, Mario got smashed 53% by Crono one year. Then he smashed Crono with almost 54% the next. He boosted. Plain and simple. The level of that boost - almost 7 points based just off Crono - would account for most of a Mario/Samus shift. The rest is accounted for by SFF. It doesn't seem like a complicated situation. This isn't really rocket science. Things change. These contests are very dynamic. The Mario who beat Samus was far different than any Mario previously seen. Samus was stronger than Crono, she was at 56% on Mario in 2004. So 7 points brings him to 51%. Then he needs 9 points of SFF to go the rest of the way. I have a very hard time believing that if he can get 9 points of SFF at 51%, he can't get any SFF at 49%. And I'd argue that CT was weaker in 2005 on top of that, so Mario probably didn't quite gain 7 points. --- 2002 Link, 2003 Cloud, 2004 Link, 2005 Link, 2006 Link, 2008 Link, 2010 Link, 2011 Cloud. Link 6, Cloud 2 |
From: red sox 777 | #1707rSFF has 1 match backing it up. Except this is patently false, since Mario looked plain stronger that year or at the very worst her indirect equal. So no. rSFF has literally zero matches backing it up. Including Mario/Samus. --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
Snake
was expected to get like 56% on Vincent. Samus got 50.5% on Tifa. Snake
was expected to get like 57% on Ganondorf. Samus got 55% on Zelda.
Snake beats Samus easily, right? What is that supposed to prove exactly? That strange matches happen? You may as well have just cited Kirby > L-Block > Link for a much stranger result. There are many more matches that are not strange than are strange, that's why we say they are strange. --- 2002 Link, 2003 Cloud, 2004 Link, 2005 Link, 2006 Link, 2008 Link, 2010 Link, 2011 Cloud. Link 6, Cloud 2 |
