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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1036

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#101 | JJH777 | Posted 12/13/2011 9:59:23 PM | message detail

From: LinkMarioSamus | #093
JJH777 posted...
Other M

The reason why I picked Half-Life 2 > Metroid Prime last contest, and Samus shot me in the back for it. So I decide to pick a Metroid entrant to go further this contest, and what do I get? This.

Although I just realized that the strongest Metroid entrant, in all our past three contests, lost the minute it got out of its division. Okay.


oh Other M was before GotD? Never mind about that being a factor in this then.
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#102 | LeonhartFour | Posted 12/13/2011 10:01:46 PM | message detail
Yesterday's chart:

Time Mowser | X/Zero | Votes | Demographic
EBV | 65.76% | 34.24% | 736 | (0:00-0:05)
PHV | 65.75% | 34.25% | 5180 | (0:00-1:00)
FNV | 65.43% | 34.57% | 10444 | (1:00-6:00)
BSV | 67.96% | 32.04% | 5836 | (6:00-9:00)
DSV | 67.49% | 32.51% | 12854 | (9:00-14:30)
ASV | 66.84% | 33.16% | 16525 | (14:30-22:00)
SNV | 65.52% | 34.48% | 3086 | (22:00-24:00)

Doubling during the daylight hours, not quite a doubling during nighttime hours.
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#103 | LeonhartFour | Posted 12/13/2011 10:05:31 PM | message detail
Also, 3.5% drop for the Trainers from the freeze to the end of the Power Hour.
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#104 | anondum | Posted 12/13/2011 10:05:33 PM | message detail
samus has consistently beaten megaman

SFF has almost no effect on pokemon

sounds like an upset
#105 | IngmarBirdman | Posted 12/13/2011 10:34:07 PM | message detail
Everything Nintendo is so pressed beneath Link's boot that they can't ever hope to get out from under it.

LINK WEARS HOVER BOOTS. THEY HAVE A CHANCE.

- This message brought to you by the committee to re-elect Link
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#106 | JJH777 | Posted 12/13/2011 11:34:00 PM | message detail
Wow what a fall. Samus normally has an amazing board vote too. In every match this contest Samus has fallen from the board vote against the bosses and Terra she fell over 5%. I really want a trainers vs Cloud/Seph final match just so we can watch them lose the board vote 60-40 and then win the match anyways.
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#107 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 12/13/2011 11:49:29 PM | message detail
Oh wow Samus is over 37%. I actually feel kinda happy for her team now.
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#108 | The_Djoker | Posted 12/13/2011 11:51:43 PM | message detail
The reason why I picked Half-Life 2 > Metroid Prime last contest

Thats your own fault. If anything othem made prime stronger because people appreciated it more.


Expected. Samley weak. Samus loses her sex appeal and smash fanbase when paired with fodder.
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#109 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 12/13/2011 11:54:51 PM | message detail
JJH777 posted...
From: LinkMarioSamus | #093
JJH777 posted...
Other M

The reason why I picked Half-Life 2 > Metroid Prime last contest, and Samus shot me in the back for it. So I decide to pick a Metroid entrant to go further this contest, and what do I get? This.

Although I just realized that the strongest Metroid entrant, in all our past three contests, lost the minute it got out of its division. Okay.
oh Other M was before GotD? Never mind about that being a factor in this then.


It actually could be a factor in this sudden "weakness" however. Other M came out less than two months before GOTD, during the nomination period in fact, so it isn't hard to explain Prime and Fusion exceeding expectations there in comparison to now, especially considering how the Metroid series has received nothing since then (unless Metroid II now being on the 3DS Virtual Console counts).

At the very least, between the Metroid series being on everyone's minds during GOTD due to a recent release and Prime benefitting from a day match, I would pick Half-Life 2 over Metroid Prime now.
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#110 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 12/13/2011 11:57:00 PM | message detail
Surskit posted...
From: LinkMarioSamus | #093
The reason why I picked Half-Life 2 > Metroid Prime last contest, and Samus shot me in the back for it.
rofl
This is like saying Pokémon Colosseum made Pokémon RBY weaker. You got shot in the back because you had no idea what you were doing.


To be fair, "I don't want to underestimate/overestimate this guy again" was most of the reason why I picked Sub-Zero > Leon and Big Boss > Tidus this contest.

So are we all in all labelling this performance as unimpressive on the Pokemon trainers' part?
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#111 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 12/14/2011 12:01:34 AM | message detail
Oh no Samus is back under 37%.

Pokemon day vote incoming?
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#112 | The_Djoker | Posted 12/14/2011 12:03:47 AM | message detail
Its not unimpressive. You cant pick fighters over these guys and say its unimpressive veverything theyve done has been impressive. They wont win and certainly wont beat mowser but theyve done wel and exceeded expectations. Star of the contest by a mile unless clouderoth upset linknan
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#113 | IngmarBirdman | Posted 12/14/2011 12:04:33 AM | message detail
This performance seems about right considering what we've seen. Underperforming would be doing worse than against Ryu / Ken. This result displays their strength while indicating they will still lose to Mario / Bowser, albeit in what would be a close match for this contest.
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#114 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 12/14/2011 12:10:01 AM | message detail | (edited)
Well good. I was asking just so I could make one comment...

In this contest and the last character contest, the Pokemon series put on some amazing performances, but in GOTD, the series was a flop all around compared to expectations aside from maybe RSE breaking 40% on Mario Galaxy. What happened?

EDIT: Oh ho, back above 37%! All right, goodbye. Tell me how the Pokemon ASV goes.
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#115 | IngmarBirdman | Posted 12/14/2011 12:20:01 AM | message detail
Well, the pokémon / trainers who are kicking ass appear to be RBY-related, which was not present in the series contest. GSC looks pretty good in the x-stats in any case.
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#116 | AxemRedRanger | Posted 12/14/2011 1:37:53 AM | message detail
...Why is Samus doing best in Europe?
>_>
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#117 | JJH777 | Posted 12/14/2011 1:38:56 AM | message detail

From: AxemRedRanger | #116
...Why is Samus doing best in Europe?
>_>


Trainers vs Cloud/Seph Euro vote will be glorious
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#118 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 12/14/2011 2:08:40 AM | message detail
AxemRedRanger | Posted 12/14/2011 4:37:53 AM | message detail | quote
...Why is Samus doing best in Europe?


I don't know why. Samus has always done terrible in Europe prior to this match. As for the Trainers, their performance in Europe is very similar to the worldwide result.
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#119 | The_Djoker | Posted 12/14/2011 2:47:39 AM | message detail
Noone cares about r/ s /e or d /p/ p.

No mostalgia at all and only hardcore pokemon fanbase care and they arent that significant. Its why pokemon games do terribly bad on goty polls.
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#120 | Safer Sephiroth 777 | Posted 12/14/2011 3:04:07 AM | message detail | (edited)
Well nice match.At least it is not doubling.Hope they beat Mario too.Also the previous match ended EXACTLY in a doubling.I don't think that has happened before.
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#121 | spooky96 | Posted 12/14/2011 3:44:02 AM | message detail
Anyone here to give me this hope....Trainers>Mario Bowser >_>
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#122 | Safer Sephiroth 777 | Posted 12/14/2011 3:58:35 AM | message detail
It is the same change as Cloud beating Link,meaning a really low one.
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#123 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 12/14/2011 4:00:54 AM | message detail
The_Djoker posted...
Noone cares about r/ s /e or d /p/ p.

No mostalgia at all and only hardcore pokemon fanbase care and they arent that significant. Its why pokemon games do terribly bad on goty polls.


More or less what I thought. So then...gee, how's BW looking? Probably going to be just slightly ahead of RSE/DPP in contest strength, and still significantly below GSC (let alone RBY).

Pretty sad that I smile just because a losing rivalry is approaching 38%. But how in god's name has Samus risen so much during the night? Isn't she usually absolutely terrible in the night?
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#124 | Ultimaphazon | Posted 12/14/2011 4:05:19 AM | message detail
Pokemon is as frontloaded as it gets outside of joke entrants. This is not too surprising.
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#125 | jacko_vdz | Posted 12/14/2011 4:07:24 AM | message detail
Cloud/Seph vs Trainers final is too good to actually happen =/
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#126 | Azp2k32 | Posted 12/14/2011 4:07:49 AM | message detail
spooky96 posted...
Anyone here to give me this hope....Trainers>Mario Bowser >_>

Well, we've already got a bandwagon forming to some extent and with power along those lines Charizard came pretty damn close on Mario last year....

Really, in my opinion, the best support for Trainers actually winning in this instance in the context of Mario v. Charizard is that Charizard's just a Pokémon. Definitely the most legitimately popular among the gaming public, very well known otherwise, and certainly likely to elicit RBY nostalgia from a large number of people who've played the games. Trainers may not have individual power like Charizard does but they represent the games a lot better and those are certainly more popular than Charizard. I don't imagine they're popular enough to take down Link without a super-charged and super-rallied voter-base, but I think they're popular enough to take down a generic Mario/Bowser coupling that can be associated with any number of games. More people may know Mario/Bowser but RBY elicit much stronger nostalgic feeling than any individual Mario game can for a good portion of the voters on this site.
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#127 | The_Djoker | Posted 12/14/2011 4:11:26 AM | message detail
Clouderoth have a much better chance than trainers cmon. I think people are downplaying clouds chances more. Mario will spank trainers everwhere its almost certain. The only thing stopping cloud from beating link is the monstrous us vote. If clouderith can keep the zelda duo anything below 53% in us it should be a close match. We know zelda has never beaten ffvii outside us.
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#128 | The_Djoker | Posted 12/14/2011 4:24:43 AM | message detail

From: LinkMarioSamus | #123
More or less what I thought. So then...gee, how's BW looking? Probably going to be just slightly ahead of RSE/DPP in contest strength, and still significantly below GSC (let alone RBY).

Pretty sad that I smile just because a losing rivalry is approaching 38%. But how in god's name has Samus risen so much during the night? Isn't she usually absolutely terrible in the night?


Trends vary depending on games. Pokemon isn't exactly the night god.
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#129 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 12/14/2011 4:39:31 AM | message detail
Well, Pokemon is the only thing Nintendo that isn't crap in Asia while Metroid is bottom of the barrel bad there, which is why I'm so surprised.

I guess the Europe vote plays a much larger role in the night vote, huh?
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#130 | BK_Sheikah00 | Posted 12/14/2011 4:52:50 AM | message detail
Ultimate Loser possibilities:

Mario/Trainers>Cloud: Ness/Giygas
Mario/Trainers>Link: Sol Badguy/Ky Kiske
Link/Cloud>Mario: Dan/Sagat
Link/Cloud>Trainers: Ezio/Rodrigo

How fodderific.
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#131 | Wii_TuRtLe | Posted 12/14/2011 5:09:37 AM | message detail
So essentially, Dan/Sagat

That's a shame, Sagat is my favourite SF2 character behind Cammy.
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#132 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 12/14/2011 5:39:48 AM | message detail
LinkMarioSamus | Posted 12/14/2011 7:39:31 AM | message detail | quote
I guess the Europe vote plays a much larger role in the night vote, huh?


Yes, that's true here. When we get to about 4:00 AM, Europe dominates the poll big time until about 7:00 AM.
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#133 | WhiteLens | Posted 12/14/2011 5:58:35 AM | message detail

From: BK_Sheikah00 | #130
Link/Cloud>Mario: Dan/Sagat


This would be incredibly fitting.
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#134 | The_Djoker | Posted 12/14/2011 6:20:46 AM | message detail
How did DanSagat even get nominated? in fact we have at least 4 fighting game rivalries but no Jin Kazama/Devil.
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#135 | __Smurf__ | Posted 12/14/2011 6:37:30 AM | message detail
So what do people think about the idea that Other M has absolutely destroyed Samus and her future appearances will more likely mirror her medicore game/series showings rather than the top 5 beast we've been used to seeing.
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#136 | charmander6000 | Posted 12/14/2011 6:41:05 AM | message detail
it's silly
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#137 | Kotetsu534 | Posted 12/14/2011 6:47:47 AM | message detail
Hopefully lots of people will buy into it and pick some crazy upset because of it!
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#138 | __Smurf__ | Posted 12/14/2011 6:51:25 AM | message detail
to be fair picking both trainers and fighters over her prior to this contest may have been considered a "crazy upset"
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#139 | Safer Sephiroth 777 | Posted 12/14/2011 7:15:05 AM | message detail
Yeah that is true.I believe the prediction percentage will be really low.
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#140 | SuperAngelo128 | Posted 12/14/2011 7:21:20 AM | message detail
Other M may not have been well received but it definitely has not ruined her popularity overall

since people can still put whatever personality they want on her
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#141 | Kotetsu534 | Posted 12/14/2011 7:32:03 AM | message detail
People weren't picking Trainers/Fighters over her, but over Samus vs. Ridley.
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#142 | The_Djoker | Posted 12/14/2011 7:33:39 AM | message detail
IT depends on the Pics. If you put Super/Prime or Brawl.Melee pic then she'll be fine in Debatable matches.

A game doesn't ruin a series or character. Unless we see 3-4 other M sequels all being Trash. People will not forget the masterpieces that were Super and Prime or her appearances in Smash games.

IF we have a debated match 1v1 with Samus and it's an Other M picture...you can bet your ass she would lose.

Pics in these sense make a big difference. IF Metroid fans see the picture of her crying or giving a thumbs Down...they aren't going to be too happy. Sure it won't effect things greatly..but enough for her to close a Close match say for example against Solid Snake.
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#143 | The_Djoker | Posted 12/14/2011 7:34:26 AM | message detail

From: Kotetsu534 | #141
People weren't picking Trainers/Fighters over her, but over Samus vs. Ridley.


It's amazing how many people still don't get this. You would have thought how bad this pair looked when they couldn't even double Terra/Kefka FFS.
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#144 | The n00b Avenger | Posted 12/14/2011 7:34:38 AM | message detail
I actually picked the bosses over Samus >_>

I was really banking on rivalries mattering and went for a sort of upset bracket. Obviously that didn't turn out well(but the bosses did put up a good fight at least)
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#145 | The_Djoker | Posted 12/14/2011 7:42:19 AM | message detail

From: The n00b Avenger | #144
I actually picked the bosses over Samus >_>

I was really banking on rivalries mattering and went for a sort of upset bracket. Obviously that didn't turn out well(but the bosses did put up a good fight at least)


HOw much did bosses get like 46%? No doubt if it was Snake/Liquid would have been an easy win for the MGS Duo. But Bosses are only really tied to 1 game and we all saw how MGS done last game contest.


Personally i think the strongest MGS rivalry would have been Snake/Ocelot. Would have drawed in a lot more votes.
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#146 | izNotPerfect | Posted 12/14/2011 7:50:51 AM | message detail
This is really gonna fudge up a lot of Brackets. I wonder how many perfects picked Trainers here...
We're also gonna see quite a few Battle picks die.


X-Stats are going to love Trainers and hate Bosses.


Next two days are boring, so that gives two days for everyone to foolishly speculate Trainers beating Mario (rofl you guys)
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#147 | The_Djoker | Posted 12/14/2011 8:14:11 AM | message detail
NExt 3 days is boring. Look at the drop off. 63%-60% from 10 am to 4 pm now(GMT) against friggin Samus. As impressive as they've been, they can't go into the Mowser match with that. They'll get destroyed.

The only good match left is Clouderoth Vs Link.

It will be an epic day for an upset and an upset that i can foresee.
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#148 | White_Tiger | Posted 12/14/2011 8:43:48 AM | message detail
Why are you people excited for Link/Cloud match? Link/Cloud will be as interesting as it has been since 2003, Link will win with ease.
#149 | spooky96 | Posted 12/14/2011 8:52:34 AM | message detail
White_Tiger posted...
Why are you people excited for Link/Cloud match? Link/Cloud will be as interesting as it has been since 2003, Link will win with ease.

Cloud has got Sephiroth's boost while Ganon won't do any good to Link, but it's like Link>>Cloud>Sephiroth>>>Ganon. So this match really is exciting.
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#150 | Xuxon | Posted 12/14/2011 8:54:00 AM | message detail
Ganon actually does a lot for Link or he wouldn't have tripled Mega Man. But Seph should add a bit more to Cloud.