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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1035

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#151 | The_Djoker | Posted 12/12/2011 1:40:27 PM | message detail

From: Safer Sephiroth 777 | #141
Well yeah Squall has it.Less than 1000 but he has it.Now for Samus...Does anyone really expect her to win?


No.Will be an SFF beatdown.
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#152 | XIII_socks | Posted 12/12/2011 1:41:17 PM | message detail
YES SQUALL DO IT
BE CHAMPIONS
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#153 | RottingToe | Posted 12/12/2011 1:41:58 PM | message detail

From: The_Djoker | #151
No.Will be an SFF beatdown.


Sadly this. Like I said in a topic I made this morning, that match will be my downfall if Sora manages to win this.
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#154 | The Mana Sword | Posted 12/12/2011 1:42:10 PM | message detail
what on earth is going on in here
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#155 | KingButz | Posted 12/12/2011 1:42:38 PM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=4565&region=USXCA

Dat California vote
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#156 | MegatokyoEd | Posted 12/12/2011 1:43:42 PM | message detail
Yeah, this is over. Sora can't do anything consistently.
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#157 | RottingToe | Posted 12/12/2011 1:48:42 PM | message detail
Since the first big ASV cut, Sora has been on pace to win with his current hourly average vote cut.

And he just won another one.

I'm not surprised by all this.
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#158 | The_Djoker | Posted 12/12/2011 1:50:24 PM | message detail

From: RottingToe | #157
Since the first big ASV cut, Sora has been on pace to win with his current hourly average vote cut.

And he just won another one.

I'm not surprised by all this.


He stil won't win. Cmon the lead is well over 1200. HE can't make up that much and Squall is going to cut back every 4-5 Updates before the Night vote hits.

Squall will win with 500 or so votes to spare. Comfortable
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#159 | The Mana Sword | Posted 12/12/2011 1:50:32 PM | message detail
Thing is, Sora's not going to be cutting at this rate for the remaining 7 hours. His gains are going to get smaller over the course of the evening.
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#160 | shane15 | Posted 12/12/2011 1:50:52 PM | message detail
Naa Squall got dis! It's Persona 4 vs Dead Rising all over again.Squall will hold off this pathetic no taste American vote and ride it out with a glorious win because Squall>all.
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#161 | XIII_socks | Posted 12/12/2011 1:51:34 PM | message detail

From: The Mana Sword | #159
Thing is, Sora's not going to be cutting at this rate for the remaining 7 hours. His gains are going to get smaller over the course of the evening.


This.

THIS.

...then a 28-vote cut GODDAMN
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#162 | Haguile | Posted 12/12/2011 1:51:44 PM | message detail
I just want one more lead change. I don't even care that much who wins. I just want it to be exciting.
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#163 | The_Djoker | Posted 12/12/2011 1:53:54 PM | message detail

From: Haguile | #162
I just want one more lead change. I don't even care that much who wins. I just want it to be exciting.


A match wre KH could possibly win is never exciting.
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#164 | RottingToe | Posted 12/12/2011 1:54:07 PM | message detail
But I expect Sora to improve as the ASV goes on and have even bigger lead cuts. There's still a significant amount of kiddies, even those who got out a while ago, who have yet to vote.

Plus the SNV slightly favors Sora.

The ASV slope increasing can give Sora just enough ground to cover as he begins to level off during the SNV.
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#165 | LOLContests | Posted 12/12/2011 1:54:15 PM | message detail
Axel/Frog didn't really get going until this time, IIRC.
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#166 | TRE Public Account | Posted 12/12/2011 1:54:38 PM | message detail
Sora isn't going to do as well percentagewise once the ASV starts to fade. On top of that, the number of voters per hour will start to fade as well. Sora barely staying on pace during the ASV isn't really that good and Sora is actually slightly behind pace right now.
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#167 | Haguile | Posted 12/12/2011 1:56:02 PM | message detail

From: The_Djoker | Posted: 12/12/2011 4:53:54 PM | #163
A match wre KH could possibly win is never exciting.


Fortunately I like KH so I'm okay with it winning.
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#168 | Haguile | Posted 12/12/2011 1:56:18 PM | message detail
17-vote cut!
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#169 | The_Djoker | Posted 12/12/2011 1:58:51 PM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of a moderator or administrator]
#170 | XIII_Rock1525 | Posted 12/12/2011 2:01:48 PM | message detail
SquallStall

do it
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#171 | RottingToe | Posted 12/12/2011 2:03:30 PM | message detail
Yup, Sora's just gonna stall in the first half hour of every hour, then wipe the floor in the second half.

Not enough, Sora...not enough...I am ashamed to have picked you in my bracket.
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#172 | Kotetsu534 | Posted 12/12/2011 2:04:03 PM | message detail
Yeah, I was worried because I thought they might start opening those 40-50 cuts quite frequently, but they're struggling to keep pace to take the lead. Not worried now.
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#173 | shane15 | Posted 12/12/2011 2:05:59 PM | message detail
Squall's just warming up he's used renzokuken to take the lead and now he's readying Lionheart
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#174 | RottingToe | Posted 12/12/2011 2:06:25 PM | message detail
what a stall

what
a
stall
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#175 | The_Djoker | Posted 12/12/2011 2:07:02 PM | message detail

From: Kotetsu534 | #172
Yeah, I was worried because I thought they might start opening those 40-50 cuts quite frequently, but they're struggling to keep pace to take the lead. Not worried now.


For sora to make consistent cuts like that he has to win 60-40 updates.
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#176 | Kotetsu534 | Posted 12/12/2011 2:11:40 PM | message detail
In a really big ASV swing that can happen. See any famous comeback against CT.
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#177 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 12/12/2011 2:14:40 PM | message detail
This isn't a big enough swing to counteract Squall, though.

Another Kingdom Hearts chokefest.
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#178 | XIII_Rock1525 | Posted 12/12/2011 2:14:44 PM | message detail
Sonic/Crono 06 GoaT match
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#179 | UltimaterializerX | Posted 12/12/2011 2:16:11 PM | message detail
Yeah Sora's going too slow. This isn't Frog/Axel where one guy is actually liked and has a monster day vote against CT, Squall is fine during the day. Closest this could get is 500, but I'll be surprised if it even gets below 800.
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#180 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 12/12/2011 2:17:54 PM | message detail
Plus this contest has been so dull that nobody gives a s*** about the interesting matches. There's too much apathy for a comeback bandwagon to give the extra oomph needed for Sora/Riku to complete a comeback.
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#181 | RottingToe | Posted 12/12/2011 2:22:54 PM | message detail
Well I have a ton of work to get done. I'll be back at around 10 central to see how big Squall's gonna win by.
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#182 | XIII_Rock1525 | Posted 12/12/2011 2:29:36 PM | message detail
ASV is cyclical
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#183 | FateStayAlbion | Posted 12/12/2011 2:31:36 PM | message detail
#184 | XIII_Rock1525 | Posted 12/12/2011 2:34:44 PM | message detail

From: XIII_Rock1525 | #182
ASV is cyclical


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#185 | The_Djoker | Posted 12/12/2011 2:36:52 PM | message detail

From: FateStayAlbion | #183
Typical 2nd half of the hour dominance


To quote Extha..."It makes no sense"
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#186 | The_Djoker | Posted 12/12/2011 2:37:15 PM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
#187 | vcharon | Posted 12/12/2011 2:49:40 PM | message detail
Credit to Kingdom Hearts here I suppose. It'll be interesting to see how Sora can perform next singles contest (if there actually is one after this fiasco) and if KH3 is at least announced by then. Squall is either on his way down the ranks or Seifer is a big drain on him. Little doubt Seifer is probably the weakest character that made round 3 though. I really doubt him even against Wily and Robotnik; he may be able to beat Blue simply because as a singular character the trainers are not very good in this.
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#188 | Bigwig_rah | Posted 12/12/2011 2:51:14 PM | message detail
I'd take Seifer over plenty of characters who made this round, like almost half of them.
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#189 | TRE Public Account | Posted 12/12/2011 2:52:34 PM | message detail
I don't think this match really says anything about Sora or Squall. Also keep in mind Sora nearly lost to Dante in the previous round which is a step down from where Sora used to be.
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#190 | The_Djoker | Posted 12/12/2011 2:54:22 PM | message detail

From: vcharon | #187
Credit to Kingdom Hearts here I suppose. It'll be interesting to see how Sora can perform next singles contest (if there actually is one after this fiasco) and if KH3 is at least announced by then. Squall is either on his way down the ranks or Seifer is a big drain on him. Little doubt Seifer is probably the weakest character that made round 3 though. I really doubt him even against Wily and Robotnik; he may be able to beat Blue simply because as a singular character the trainers are not very good in this.


You'd think that but Seifer the way he is...could lose to virtually anyone.
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#191 | Safer Sephiroth 777 | Posted 12/12/2011 2:59:07 PM | message detail
I wonder why this happen?I mean I am sure nobody expected this match to be that close.Is Seifer so weak that he is dragging down Squall?
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#192 | Zylo the wolf | Posted 12/12/2011 3:01:54 PM | message detail
Considering that Seifer is the only good thing in FFVIII, I'm sure he's popular enough to at least beat Dr Wily and such characters.
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#193 | abdou | Posted 12/12/2011 3:04:34 PM | message detail
Sora/Riku is the better rivalry in the eyes of many I assume which explains why they are doing better than expected. We have already seen rivalry factor at work more than once.
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#194 | The_Djoker | Posted 12/12/2011 3:06:59 PM | message detail

From: Safer Sephiroth 777 | #191
I wonder why this happen?I mean I am sure nobody expected this match to be that close.Is Seifer so weak that he is dragging down Squall?




This match isn't Squall Vs. Sora. IT's a rivalry battle. So yeah pretty much. Same reason why Samus has looked like Turd this contest. Rivalry does matter when a strong character is paired with a complete Fodder.

You Pair Link up with Tingle and he doesn't do so well.
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#195 | vcharon | Posted 12/12/2011 3:07:05 PM | message detail
I've always considered Squall, Dante and Sora near elites and probably in the next 9 right under then NN. It's not really bothersome they all three will end up pretty near one another in the stats this time. Makes going forward more interesting, really.
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#196 | vcharon | Posted 12/12/2011 3:07:45 PM | message detail
The_Djoker posted...

You Pair Link up with Tingle and he doesn't do so well.


No way, Link still wins. He's Link and is immune to being dragged down.
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#197 | The_Djoker | Posted 12/12/2011 3:08:40 PM | message detail

From: Zylo the wolf | #192
Considering that Seifer is the only good thing in FFVIII, I'm sure he's popular enough to at least beat Dr Wily and such characters.


The only good thing in what is probably the 3rd ot 4th strongest FF game has never been nominated in a contest. Such a force this Seifer is.
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#198 | LeonhartFour | Posted 12/12/2011 3:10:05 PM | message detail
Not bad, Sora. 400 votes cut in 3 hours.

Doesn't look like it'll be enough because he won't be able to cut at that rate once we get the last few hours of the poll.

Squall defies all expectations.

Eat it, red sox
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#199 | __Smurf__ | Posted 12/12/2011 3:10:35 PM | message detail

From: abdou | #193
Sora/Riku is the better rivalry in the eyes of many


I would be shocked if this were the case. Squall/Seifer was a far more predominant rivalry in its game, it got a 1st seed to reflect its significance in the eyes of nominators whereas he had a 2 in the last battle, Sora went the other way on the rivalry seeding stakes.
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#200 | The_Djoker | Posted 12/12/2011 3:10:43 PM | message detail

From: vcharon | #196
No way, Link still wins. He's Link and is immune to being dragged down.


Bollocks. You don't understand this rivalry system. Link paired up with Tingle would not be as strong don't be silly.

Link/Tingle Vs MArio/bowser

Mario/Bowser wins that match. I would bet my house on it.
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