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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1035

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#51 | foxhead84 | Posted 12/12/2011 12:27:35 PM | message detail
red sox 777 posted...
I've called big comebacks that everyone else was dismissive of at least once a contest since 2009, and this contest will be no exception.

at least your the one that keeps this interesting... but seriously not gonna happen.
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#52 | izNotPerfect | Posted 12/12/2011 12:27:43 PM | message detail
12 vote cut

Gotta do better...
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#53 | FateStayAlbion | Posted 12/12/2011 12:28:38 PM | message detail
If Sora gets a few big cuts, like 25+ here soon, maybe I'll reconsider... but I'm not feeling good about it now. The early ASV should be one of the better times for him.
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#54 | XIII_socks | Posted 12/12/2011 12:31:44 PM | message detail
Surely the next half hour is vital if we're going to see anything? I forget when the ASV really kicks in...dumb time difference
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#55 | red sox 777 | Posted 12/12/2011 12:32:12 PM | message detail
Sora's already at 52.5% in California and it's not the ASV here yet, so he'll probably get stronger as the match goes on.
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2002 Link, 2003 Cloud, 2004 Link, 2005 Link, 2006 Link, 2008 Link, 2010 Link, 2011 Cloud.
Link 6, Cloud 2
#56 | GranzonEx | Posted 12/12/2011 12:32:18 PM | message detail
Right about now.
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#57 | TRE Public Account | Posted 12/12/2011 12:32:40 PM | message detail
Surely the next half hour is vital if we're going to see anything? I forget when the ASV really kicks in...dumb time difference

The ASV started about 30 minutes ago.
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Pokemon VGC2011 US Nationals - 54th place
Pokemon VGC2012 NW Regional - 16th place
#58 | izNotPerfect | Posted 12/12/2011 12:32:42 PM | message detail
ROFL what an update
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#59 | The Mana Sword | Posted 12/12/2011 12:33:17 PM | message detail
lol
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#60 | XIII_socks | Posted 12/12/2011 12:33:41 PM | message detail

From: TRE Public Account | #057
Surely the next half hour is vital if we're going to see anything? I forget when the ASV really kicks in...dumb time difference

The ASV started about 30 minutes ago.


Ah

When do americans finish school? Right on 3pm?
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#61 | red sox 777 | Posted 12/12/2011 12:33:46 PM | message detail
Yeah, this is the ASV right now so it should be concerning that Sora's not making much progress yet, but the important thing is to look at hourly numbers and not individual updates. Individual updates have very high variance, hourly numbers are fairly reliable.
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2002 Link, 2003 Cloud, 2004 Link, 2005 Link, 2006 Link, 2008 Link, 2010 Link, 2011 Cloud.
Link 6, Cloud 2
#62 | FateStayAlbion | Posted 12/12/2011 12:35:16 PM | message detail | (edited)
red sox 777 posted...
Yeah, this is the ASV right now so it should be concerning that Sora's not making much progress yet, but the important thing is to look at hourly numbers and not individual updates. Individual updates have very high variance, hourly numbers are fairly reliable.

You mean how he's cut 1 vote since 3 pm started?
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#63 | XIII_socks | Posted 12/12/2011 12:35:09 PM | message detail

From: red sox 777 | #061
Yeah, this is the ASV right now so it should be concerning that Sora's not making much progress yet, but the important thing is to look at hourly numbers and not individual updates. Individual updates have very high variance, hourly numbers are fairly reliable.


Well Sora won that half-hour by 1 vote. Woo!
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#64 | XIII_socks | Posted 12/12/2011 12:35:17 PM | message detail
#65 | XIII_socks | Posted 12/12/2011 12:36:28 PM | message detail
#66 | TRE Public Account | Posted 12/12/2011 12:37:26 PM | message detail
That was Sora's first cut that was actually on pace to make the comeback (14.6votes/update).
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Pokemon VGC2011 US Nationals - 54th place
Pokemon VGC2012 NW Regional - 16th place
#67 | izNotPerfect | Posted 12/12/2011 12:37:36 PM | message detail
holy s***

more like that please
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#68 | __Smurf__ | Posted 12/12/2011 12:37:50 PM | message detail
The last 30 posts or so show just how desperate people are for a match in this contest. Willing to grasp on to the slenderest of hopes.
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#69 | izNotPerfect | Posted 12/12/2011 12:40:43 PM | message detail

From: __Smurf__ | #068
The last 30 posts or so show just how desperate people are for a match in this contest. Willing to grasp on to the slenderest of hopes.


Isn't every contest like that though?
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#70 | FateStayAlbion | Posted 12/12/2011 12:40:46 PM | message detail
#71 | XIII_socks | Posted 12/12/2011 12:40:51 PM | message detail
We'll see what the next update is like then...
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#72 | XIII_socks | Posted 12/12/2011 12:41:14 PM | message detail
#73 | Janus5000 | Posted 12/12/2011 12:41:22 PM | message detail
oh hi 46 vote cut
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#74 | The Mana Sword | Posted 12/12/2011 12:41:46 PM | message detail
ha

well, alright, that's a bit better

still not happening, though.
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#75 | izNotPerfect | Posted 12/12/2011 12:42:07 PM | message detail
http://myfacewhen.com/images/176.jpg
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#76 | TRE Public Account | Posted 12/12/2011 12:44:11 PM | message detail
The last 30 posts or so show just how desperate people are for a match in this contest. Willing to grasp on to the slenderest of hopes.

Unless the previous close matches, the trends actually call for an outside chance at the upset. While I'm still confident in Squall, I think a match like this would get discussing in any contest not just because this one lacked upsets.
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Pokemon VGC2011 US Nationals - 54th place
Pokemon VGC2012 NW Regional - 16th place
#77 | FateStayAlbion | Posted 12/12/2011 12:44:26 PM | message detail
With that update, Sora/Riku take back the lead in North America, as well.
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#78 | __Smurf__ | Posted 12/12/2011 12:44:29 PM | message detail
66 cut in the first 40 minutes of the ASV? He'll drag Squall below 51% and no more. Would still expect Squall to win by over 1000.
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#79 | FateStayAlbion | Posted 12/12/2011 12:46:00 PM | message detail
#80 | Janus5000 | Posted 12/12/2011 12:46:34 PM | message detail
94 votes in 15 minutes. Not bad.
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#81 | XIII_socks | Posted 12/12/2011 12:47:29 PM | message detail
#82 | TRE Public Account | Posted 12/12/2011 12:47:29 PM | message detail
66 cut in the first 40 minutes of the ASV? He'll drag Squall below 51% and no more. Would still expect Squall to win by over 1000.

65 of that came from the last 10 minutes which is the problem for Squall.
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Pokemon VGC2011 US Nationals - 54th place
Pokemon VGC2012 NW Regional - 16th place
#83 | izNotPerfect | Posted 12/12/2011 12:47:32 PM | message detail
We have a ball game
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#84 | XIII_socks | Posted 12/12/2011 12:47:57 PM | message detail
Doesn't Squall still have the SNV to fall back on?
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#85 | Kotetsu534 | Posted 12/12/2011 12:48:58 PM | message detail
Gotta be honest, I'm worried.
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#86 | XIII_socks | Posted 12/12/2011 12:50:17 PM | message detail

From: Kotetsu534 | #085
Gotta be honest, I'm worried.


My nerves are on edge.

This might make me unable to enjoy raw tonight
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#87 | The_Djoker | Posted 12/12/2011 12:50:53 PM | message detail
If he's going to make a comeback and make this match interesting then i hope hope he comes back takes the lead only to lose the match by 1 vote in the last update.
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#88 | XIII_socks | Posted 12/12/2011 12:51:03 PM | message detail
stall him. please STALL HIM.
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#89 | XIII_socks | Posted 12/12/2011 12:51:25 PM | message detail
F***ING STOP THIS NOW
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#90 | izNotPerfect | Posted 12/12/2011 12:52:28 PM | message detail
oh my god best match of the contest
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#91 | red sox 777 | Posted 12/12/2011 12:52:31 PM | message detail
Based on Squall/Sora 2008 R3, Sora/Riku win with 50.68%.
Based on Squall/Sora 2008 R2, Sora/Riku win with 50.56%.

Gotta leave for about 5 hours now, hopefully I'll return to an exciting match. Also, the last 30 minutes demonstrates how many people still have not figured out the concept of variance. That 46 vote cut was no more noteworthy than the miniscule cuts Sora was getting earlier.
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2002 Link, 2003 Cloud, 2004 Link, 2005 Link, 2006 Link, 2008 Link, 2010 Link, 2011 Cloud.
Link 6, Cloud 2
#92 | Janus5000 | Posted 12/12/2011 12:52:55 PM | message detail
In 2008, Squall and Sora seemed to roughly split the SNV. This was with Sora trailing Squall. So if they're almost 50/50 going into it...
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#93 | WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 12/12/2011 12:52:56 PM | message detail
XIII_socks posted...
From: Kotetsu534 | #085

This might make me unable to enjoy raw tonight


No, WWE will make you unable to enjoy RAW tonight!
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#94 | XIII_socks | Posted 12/12/2011 12:53:42 PM | message detail
We can't all be as jaded as you!
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#95 | Kyle Bowen | Posted 12/12/2011 12:54:45 PM | message detail
WarThaNemesis2 posted...
XIII_socks posted...
From: Kotetsu534 | #085

This might make me unable to enjoy raw tonight

No, WWE will make you unable to enjoy RAW tonight!


Unless CM Punk gets ample time... this.
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KB
#96 | WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 12/12/2011 12:55:17 PM | message detail
I'm going to be watching Russo-era WCW instead of Raw. My favorite promotion in the world is NWA: Mountain State. My standards aren't very high!
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#97 | XIII_socks | Posted 12/12/2011 12:56:33 PM | message detail
#98 | Bigwig_rah | Posted 12/12/2011 12:56:38 PM | message detail
Sure 1350 is too many votes to overcome right? Right?
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#99 | XIII_socks | Posted 12/12/2011 12:57:24 PM | message detail

From: Bigwig_rah | #098
Sure 1350 is too many votes to overcome right? Right?


YES IT IS YES IT IS YES IT IS YES IT IS *sticks fingers in ears*
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#100 | Safer Sephiroth 777 | Posted 12/12/2011 12:58:18 PM | message detail
Nice match.Squall wins with at least 500 votes though.
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