GameFAQs Contests
Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1035
save_us.trainers ~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~ www.gamefaqscontests.com ~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~ http://board8.wikia.com/ ~*List of All Polls (a search bar is at the bottom)*~ http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html ~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~ http://www.thengamer.com/ http://thengamer.com/xstats ~*GameFAQs Contests Hall of Fame*~ http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Hall_of_Fame http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Match_Hall_of_Fame ~*Character Contest Histories*~ http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories ~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~ A = Strongest Character B = Character Weaker than A C = Character Weaker than B To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA ~*All the Match Pics*~ http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/index.php ~*Leonhart4's Trend Charts*~ https://spreadsheets.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?hl=en&key=tOGmynfNIiNy5VukpEF-PdA&hl=en#gid=0 ~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~ http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages ~*Say What? Common Stats Topic Lingo Defined*~ SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote. This is the best example of SFF we've ever seen. However take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make perfect sense. Extrapolated Standings - The mathematical "strength" of a contestant that's determined based on their performance relative to the rest of the field. This number is typically based on the contest entrant's loss, but adjustments are sometimes made. See above for a watered down explanation for how the stats are calculated. --- ##Alec |
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Anyone acting like this match is over is crazy. At the very least it should get under 500, if not closer. --- http://raptr.com/badge/cf898f37d9c30ef120ada6c35e636ad3/fs.png http://myanimelist.net/signature/RyanSaotome.png |
Two things can make this contest awesome: trainers win the contest I go perfect --- http://i30.tinypic.com/16kdkbl.png |
The LAW being broken would be awesome, whoever does it. Not gonna happen though! --- Praise the Black Turtle, Game of the Decade Guru Champ. (Well, I never promised creativity, did I?!) |
From: FateStayAlbion | #002 It's a 1500 vote lead with these votals. Sora's chances are...minimal. Not a lock, I guess. --- http://i30.tinypic.com/16kdkbl.png |
Reposting from other topic... "I know I'm biased about 2k4, but it is not as bad as people make it out to be. Ryu H/Jill craziness, and then the winner somehow lost to Sora? Frog vs. Liquid Snake and then Frog vs. Master Chief? Tidus/Shadow "lol"? Snake/Tanner >_> Late rounds were pretty boring compared to the high standards of previous contests, but Crono finally beat Mario in his third try, and there was a different winner from the previous contest (Remember, in 2004 we didn't know about THE LAW). Hell, even Frog vs. Solid **** was hilarious." --- Sack Up Or Shut Up™ |
From: Kotetsu534 | #005 It's like tranny said, the alternative is Cloud. Euw. --- http://i30.tinypic.com/16kdkbl.png |
XIII_socks posted... From: FateStayAlbion | #002 Anyone acting like this match is over is crazy. At the very least it should get under 500, if not closer. It's a 1500 vote lead with these votals. Sora's chances are...minimal. Not a lock, I guess. Like Red Sox said, in one of the 4way matches Sora cut about 1450 off of Squalls lead with 40k something votes. --- http://raptr.com/badge/cf898f37d9c30ef120ada6c35e636ad3/fs.png http://myanimelist.net/signature/RyanSaotome.png |
Based on Squall/Sora 2008 R3, Sora wins with 51.04%. That would give him a win of around 1000 votes. I've never seen the actual results differ from the projection by more than 1% this late into the match (15 hours), so it's looking real bad for Squall. He better hope the ASV really has weakened a lot. --- 2002 Link, 2003 Cloud, 2004 Link, 2005 Link, 2006 Link, 2008 Link, 2010 Link, 2011 Cloud. Link 6, Cloud 2 |
From: FateStayAlbion | #002 Anyone acting like this match hasn't been over since before 1am is crazy. Sora isn't going to break 49%. |
From: red sox 777 | #011 It has. --- http://i30.tinypic.com/16kdkbl.png |
From: Xuxon | #012 I'm skeptical that Sora will win, but I am very confident that this will end with Sora at 49% --- I'm a mess http://i43.tinypic.com/205o5l.gif |
people just desperate for an upset tbqh --- I wish I could wear skirts and dresses :( -GMUN |
Against
Dante, Sora's day vote allowed him to finish only 1% higher than his
lowest overnight percentage. This is over; lower votals and the younger
CoD crowd bailing on the site have resulted in a diminished ASV. Majora
barely overcame 1500 against FFX in a match with almost double the
votals and some Zelda rallying. --- Yoblazer: http://i32.tinypic.com/zlf1w7.gif Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world! |
The Mana Sword posted... people just desperate for an upset tbqh And an actual good match! This is probably the last chance we'll get for a really close match this contest --- http://raptr.com/badge/cf898f37d9c30ef120ada6c35e636ad3/fs.png http://myanimelist.net/signature/RyanSaotome.png |
Sora/Squall
R2 2008 gives us......Sora/Riku win with 50.68%. Better for Squall,
but not much better, and the fact that the 2 projections are close is a
bad sign for him, because it indicates neither of those matches had
anomalous trends. --- 2002 Link, 2003 Cloud, 2004 Link, 2005 Link, 2006 Link, 2008 Link, 2010 Link, 2011 Cloud. Link 6, Cloud 2 |
What is "THE LAW"? --- Toronto Maple Leafs: 15-10-3, 33 Points, 6th Place Toronto Raptors: 0-0 |
From: The Mana Sword | #015 Pretty much! --- http://img.imgcake.com/drakeryn/tiroalecjpgap.jpg http://img.imgcake.com/drakeryn/alecjpgyt.jpg |
Link/Cloud could be really close. And who knows with Pokemon. Not going to happen here, though. |
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster] |
We'll
know within an hour what's going to happen, most likely. Either
Sora/Riku will be cutting with wild abandon and chopping the lead to
shreds, or they won't be, in which case "good game". --- Praise the Black Turtle, Game of the Decade Guru Champ. (Well, I never promised creativity, did I?!) |
What is "THE LAW"? Link Always Wins |
What is "THE LAW"? Link Always Wins |
It's like tranny said, the alternative is Cloud. Euw. Some of us don't hate FF! --- Praise the Black Turtle, Game of the Decade Guru Champ. (Well, I never promised creativity, did I?!) |
From: Winged Supreme | #019 "Not to go on all-Four-ways; that is the Law. Are we not Men? "Not to upset our brackets; that is the Law. Are we not Men? "Not to vote except Square or Nintendo; that is the Law. Are we not Men? "Not to support the Enemy of Link; that is the Law. Are we not Men? "Not to rally other characters; that is the Law. Are we not Men?" --- "Link has spoken for years. And music is his language" -YoBlazer |
Against
Dante, Sora's day vote allowed him to finish only 1% higher than his
lowest overnight percentage. This is over; lower votals and the younger
CoD crowd bailing on the site have resulted in a diminished ASV. Majora
barely overcame 1500 against FFX in a match with almost double the
votals and some Zelda rallying. As strange as that may have seemed, the projection based on Dante/Riku actually predicted that very well. This match certainly is not over in Squall's favor. --- 2002 Link, 2003 Cloud, 2004 Link, 2005 Link, 2006 Link, 2008 Link, 2010 Link, 2011 Cloud. Link 6, Cloud 2 |
compare to crono/vincent trends please --- I wish I could wear skirts and dresses :( -GMUN |
As
strange as that may have seemed, the projection based on Dante/Riku
actually predicted that very well. This match certainly is not over in
Squall's favor. ....Implying it may be over in Sora's? >_>; --- http://i30.tinypic.com/16kdkbl.png |
Crono/Vincent
(both of them) predicts a boring Squall win. Magus/Sandbag is better,
and predicts a close match I think in Sora's favor, but still not as
good for Sora as Squall/Sora. Yesmar mentioned earlier that that match
had one of the biggest ASV swings of all time, and it's true. --- 2002 Link, 2003 Cloud, 2004 Link, 2005 Link, 2006 Link, 2008 Link, 2010 Link, 2011 Cloud. Link 6, Cloud 2 |
Well, its now or never for Sora. The ASV should officially start now so he needs to start ripping into that lead. --- http://raptr.com/badge/cf898f37d9c30ef120ada6c35e636ad3/fs.png http://myanimelist.net/signature/RyanSaotome.png |
From: The Mana Sword | #029 Squall wins with 50.97%. Crono/Vincent's big changes were early in the poll. |
....Implying it may be over in Sora's? >_>; Possibly. As I said, I have never seen a direct projection be off by more than 1% from 15 hours into the match. Half a percent is fairly rare. And we have 1 projection showing a 51% win for Sora, the other showing a 50.7% win for Sora. It has been 3 years since those matches took place, and I don't want to call a match against the character with a 1500 vote lead in a contest with such low votals as this one, but I'd say it's looking pretty bleak right now for Squall. --- 2002 Link, 2003 Cloud, 2004 Link, 2005 Link, 2006 Link, 2008 Link, 2010 Link, 2011 Cloud. Link 6, Cloud 2 |
Sora needs 13.8 votes per update to make the comeback. --- Pokemon VGC2011 US Nationals - 54th place Pokemon VGC2012 NW Regional - 16th place |
look at those huge cuts! 8, 7, 7... okay maybe he breaks 49%. but not by much. |
Sora probably needs to what, 55-45 Squall the rest of the way to win? That's not happening. --- http://i259.photobucket.com/albums/hh293/zukiraphaera/war-sig-1.png http://i.imgur.com/597oi.png |
dat squall asv --- I wish I could wear skirts and dresses :( -GMUN |
Yeah, you guys were right. This is over --- http://raptr.com/badge/cf898f37d9c30ef120ada6c35e636ad3/fs.png http://myanimelist.net/signature/RyanSaotome.png |
lol GG First and last time I'll ever be on the leaderboard. --- If you believe in Jesus Christ and are 100% proud, put this in your sig. http://img526.imageshack.us/img526/3788/ronpaul2012banner.jpg |
The KH ASV has been poor for a while now, the KH era of schoolkids has come and gone. --- Smurf, the cream of Sonic fanboyism |
I
just noticed that this is a battle between the two most annoying video
game characters of all time. Good thing that Seifer and Riku also are in
the poll! --- Ngamer64: Zylo, you're making less sense every day. Black Turtle > Me |
Patience, friends. --- 2002 Link, 2003 Cloud, 2004 Link, 2005 Link, 2006 Link, 2008 Link, 2010 Link, 2011 Cloud. Link 6, Cloud 2 |
give it up red sox, just move on to hyping link/cloud --- I wish I could wear skirts and dresses :( -GMUN |
Sora only need 124 hours to come back! Squall's lucky this isn't on GameSpot! --- http://i259.photobucket.com/albums/hh293/zukiraphaera/war-sig-1.png http://i.imgur.com/597oi.png |
lol Sora just lol --- If you believe in Jesus Christ and are 100% proud, put this in your sig. http://img526.imageshack.us/img526/3788/ronpaul2012banner.jpg |
I dunno guys that 1 vote cut has me shaking in my boots --- thelefty for analysis crew 2008 imo -tranny I have a third degree burn in flame-o-nomics -Sir Chris |
I've
called big comebacks that everyone else was dismissive of at least once
a contest since 2009, and this contest will be no exception. --- 2002 Link, 2003 Cloud, 2004 Link, 2005 Link, 2006 Link, 2008 Link, 2010 Link, 2011 Cloud. Link 6, Cloud 2 |
58 vote cut!!!!! in the past hour!!!! GO SQUALL GO! --- KB |
