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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1034

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#351 | JJH777 | Posted 12/12/2011 12:08:05 AM | message detail
Dang Squall still over 60% in Europe I thought that would settle down a bit. That's kind of scary but Sora should still have this!
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#352 | IngmarBirdman | Posted 12/12/2011 12:11:16 AM | message detail
Maybe people in that red blob around Ukraine are waking up and Sora-voting.

Either way, it took Dante until what 6:00 AM to grab the lead? I expect another hour of stalling. Barely past midnight on the west coast.
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"Ovelia ... SPOILERS IN THE KEYWORDS WOOPS"
- Vormav
#353 | CP724 | Posted 12/12/2011 12:17:01 AM | message detail
Tinfoil hats Iin this topic.
#354 | CP724 | Posted 12/12/2011 12:19:15 AM | message detail
*in
#355 | SuperNiceDog | Posted 12/12/2011 12:28:11 AM | message detail
Squall: ...Everybody. This is Squall. How's everyone doing? You're all probably too tired to even stand up after all the fighting. But I want everyone to listen to me... We still have a chance to win, and I need your help. This is going to be our final battle. We're going to attack them before they come in again. To do that, we're going to head straight into their Garden. So I want everyone to prepare for a major collision. Take care of the junior classmen. Irvine, Quistis, Zell and Selphie will lead the attack into their Garden. As for everyone else, please support them if you can. SeeD was formed to fight the Sorceress; at least, that's what I heard. And Garden was created to train SeeDs. So this battle is Garden's destiny and also our destiny. It's a grueling battle and I'm sure you guys are all exhausted. But I don't want to have any regrets. I don't want anyone to look back and regret this day. So just this once, I want you guys to give everything you've got! For yourselves and for me!

lets DIS SQUAALLLL
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#356 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 12/12/2011 12:29:37 AM | message detail
Seems like Squall is finally moving again. He might even reach a 100 vote lead by the end of this hour and could spend the next 2 hours hopefully getting the lead above 500. Then there will be about 9 hours for Squall to continue increasing his lead past 6 AM, which I hope should be enough time to add another 500 to the lead and get that lead above 1000.
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#357 | nintendogirl1 (Moderator) | Posted 12/12/2011 12:46:09 AM | message detail
From: Lopen | #350
2. Our votes don't actually count and someone just designed a contest trend simulator to simulate matches and gave it to Bacon to use

This would make an awful lot of sense. And I doubt it'd even be too hard to implement!
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:o
#358 | SnoicFactor | Posted 12/12/2011 1:01:19 AM | message detail
Lol squall.. Wat a dip in quality.
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#359 | The_Djoker | Posted 12/12/2011 1:05:40 AM | message detail | (edited)
LeonhartFour posted...
Nope, there will be no more fun for me in this contest.

I have literally voted for the winner exactly once this round, so I pretty much have zero rooting interest left in this contest.


I told you this was going to hapen. I told everyone. But noooooo they were "squall got dis". I actually have sora winning in my bracket pre contest. People seem to put too much importance on friggin 1-1.

Dont underestimate kh on this site. Also LOL @ seifer. Whoever wins this its going to be close. I want it to be soriku so they can get raped next round
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#360 | IngmarBirdman | Posted 12/12/2011 1:17:07 AM | message detail
Sora and Riku have their work cut out for them. They need America around 52% if Europe holds 62% for Squall.
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"Ovelia ... SPOILERS IN THE KEYWORDS WOOPS"
- Vormav
#361 | The_Djoker | Posted 12/12/2011 1:31:30 AM | message detail | (edited)
Surprise surPrise look who it is supporting those terrible characters again. Damn usa. Terrible taste that country has glad i dont live there.


This just makes absolutely zero sense. There's no way that Riku helps close the gap that Squall has repeatedly displayed on Sora.

Extha again with his "logic". It makes perfect sense. Us prefers kh. We dont know how strong seifer is. Add to the fact squall/sora matches are fairly close and recent kh games it makes perfect sense. Dont go on about another bs 1v1 stat again. In fact it wasnt even 1v1 it was friggin fourways. Sora/ squall have not met 1v1 i font think


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#362 | jacko_vdz | Posted 12/12/2011 2:08:25 AM | message detail
Lame.
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#363 | transience | Posted 12/12/2011 2:19:15 AM | message detail
hrm... Squall going wild now. Europe going nuts for Sora is expected though. best match of the contest for sure. I'd call Sora the fave if he did anything of note against Dante in the day. he just kind of outlasted him.
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xyzzy
#364 | transience | Posted 12/12/2011 2:19:57 AM | message detail
#365 | Safer Sephiroth 777 | Posted 12/12/2011 2:34:11 AM | message detail
I just woke up and checked the results.Okay Cloudoth did amazingly well,I don't think anyone expected over 62%.Now for today's match that close?Sure nobody expected that.Also it seems for the first 2 hours it was actually a tie?Nice.And here in Europe Squall is over 63% but in USA KH wins.Still I believe Squall got this.Who knew that Seifer would be that weak?
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#366 | Some_Character | Posted 12/12/2011 2:39:01 AM | message detail
Squall gaining.
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#367 | SabrielAbhorsen | Posted 12/12/2011 2:45:56 AM | message detail
Wow Squall making some space. Should be real interesting too see where we are in 12 hours.
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#368 | paerarru | Posted 12/12/2011 2:50:42 AM | message detail
Squall gaining big. 500 barrier up soon.

Will he be safe with that? Who wins the morning vote?
#369 | IngmarBirdman | Posted 12/12/2011 2:51:53 AM | message detail
Squall's up another percentage in Europe to 63% and he's gradually dwindling back to that 50% mark in North America. I'd be surprised if Sora can actually bring this back below 51%. Pretty good start though.
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"Ovelia ... SPOILERS IN THE KEYWORDS WOOPS"
- Vormav
#370 | Safer Sephiroth 777 | Posted 12/12/2011 2:51:59 AM | message detail
I am guessing since Squall is doing better in Europe and Sora doing better in USA,Sora will win.Still I don't think he can do it.
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#371 | paerarru | Posted 12/12/2011 3:03:04 AM | message detail
Well Squall's putting them up. Even if Sora ends up winning the morning, by the time they kick in Squall will have a nice cushion if he keeps up at this rate... but what happens then? An interesting match! Unless Squall just runs away with the lead now.
#372 | nintendogirl1 (Moderator) | Posted 12/12/2011 3:12:16 AM | message detail
Squall averaged 58.92% that last hour. \couple more hours like that and it'll be too far gone for Sora to come back from IMO.
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:D
#373 | PartOfYourWorld | Posted 12/12/2011 3:15:01 AM | message detail
Nearing 600 now. That alone may be enough. I'm not sure how strong KH's morning vote is, but if the at-school vote is kind enough to Squall that he has his largest lead before the ASV, he should win.
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#374 | ejm5446 | Posted 12/12/2011 3:16:23 AM | message detail
If the continental percentages of the total vote are the same as yesterday, then I'd project Squall win by around 52-48...which is what it's at currently
#375 | JJH777 | Posted 12/12/2011 3:17:44 AM | message detail
Dang at the 64% in Europe that is crazy. Yeah seems like no way Squall loses at this point unless the U.S. swings like 3-4% once the day vote starts.
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Starcraft is my life, so without it I wouldn't exist. - Artosis
#376 | transience | Posted 12/12/2011 3:30:33 AM | message detail
this will all depend on if Sora can stall the during-school vote because of America being awake. chances are the answer is no and Squall will hold on. Sora's not coming back from more than 1000 votes and even that is sketchy.
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xyzzy
#377 | Safer Sephiroth 777 | Posted 12/12/2011 3:41:04 AM | message detail
I wonder why Squall is winning everywhere except USA myself.
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#378 | __Smurf__ | Posted 12/12/2011 3:44:50 AM | message detail | (edited)
The bizarre North America love for Kingdom Hearts, there are no words.

Bit disappointed Squall is in a match here, figured he'd cruise it. Once again I underestimated the US KH vote.
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#379 | PartOfYourWorld | Posted 12/12/2011 3:46:57 AM | message detail | (edited)
As an American, I've long since wondered why European voters seem to really like the non-Disney characters in my Kingdom Hearts.
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#380 | XIII_Lockes | Posted 12/12/2011 3:49:41 AM | message detail
Not what I wanted to wake up and see.
#381 | PartOfYourWorld | Posted 12/12/2011 3:52:43 AM | message detail
There's the first cut in forever, and Squall's pace has slowed, indicative of the morning vote. The smilin' one's first test is now!
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Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
#382 | Guess how many teens | Posted 12/12/2011 3:53:07 AM | message detail
Did anyone with a perfect battle bracket even back Sora? Would be a sick all perfect snipe!
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#383 | PartOfYourWorld | Posted 12/12/2011 3:59:04 AM | message detail | (edited)
IIRC, we lost 7/68 on Frog, and a few of those seven guys may have just been hesitant to go against their brackets. Squall is a huge bracket favorite and Sora hasn't looked good before today. I'm guessing no more than 2-3 went with him.

As for the battlers: assuming Squall holds on and we're left with ~60, I don't think we'll lose a single one for the entire quarterfinal round. I don't see anyone backing Samus.
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Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
#384 | ExThaNemesis | Posted 12/12/2011 4:03:05 AM | message detail
Dang, and here I was just about to call it for Squall. Sora's not done yet.
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#385 | ExThaNemesis | Posted 12/12/2011 4:05:03 AM | message detail
Also I hope Squall/Seifer win because the ensuing FFVII v. FFVIII match will tell us a little bit about Link/Cloud.

If FFVII can really harness the SFF and hammer FFVIII into the ground (like Sephiroth has had trouble doing in the past), then there is a slight glimmer of hope.

If they struggle, even slightly, well...
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#386 | Safer Sephiroth 777 | Posted 12/12/2011 4:10:10 AM | message detail | (edited)
Even if they struggle that is no problem.I mean it will not look bad.Yeah it is the same series but it is not like Mario or Zelda series where we have always the same good guys and the same set-up.So that would be okay.Still I would like for Sora to win here so we lose almost every battle and bracket.I voted for Sora myself.Also if the final was Trainers vs Cloudoth I wouldn't had a problem with Trainers winning.
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#387 | PartOfYourWorld | Posted 12/12/2011 4:11:18 AM | message detail
If Sora wins, this will be the first time in nine contests that Squall suffers an upset loss. Even in 4ways, he has never lost a match that B8 expected him to win beforehand. He may be fed to Cloud and Snake every year, but he always gets the job done for the brackets supporting him. Losing ten years of such consistent history to

http://images.wikia.com/kingdomhearts/images/8/8c/KH_Sora.jpg

this stuff just writes itself.
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Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
#388 | Kotetsu534 | Posted 12/12/2011 4:19:50 AM | message detail
Normally I do a playthrough of FFX over the Christmas holidays... if Squall pulls this out, I'm doing FFVIII!
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#389 | PartOfYourWorld | Posted 12/12/2011 4:21:26 AM | message detail

From: ExThaNemesis | #385
If FFVII can really harness the SFF and hammer FFVIII into the ground (like Sephiroth has had trouble doing in the past), then there is a slight glimmer of hope.

If they struggle, even slightly, well...


I just realized that FFVII's only disappointing match so far was against a team that is a fraction Nintendo-y. I'd have enjoyed seeing them face a scrubby Nintendo team (DK, Fox, even Luigi lol) before Link. Watching Waluigi lead Cloud AND Sephiroth for a few seconds would have been a huge highlight of the contest.
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Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
#390 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 12/12/2011 4:41:47 AM | message detail
Kotetsu534 | Posted 12/12/2011 7:19:50 AM | message detail | quote
Normally I do a playthrough of FFX over the Christmas holidays... if Squall pulls this out, I'm doing FFVIII!


You play through FFX every year during the Christmas holidays?
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#391 | __Smurf__ | Posted 12/12/2011 4:42:19 AM | message detail

From: PartOfYourWorld | #383
IIRC, we lost 7/68 on Frog, and a few of those seven guys may have just been hesitant to go against their brackets. Squall is a huge bracket favorite and Sora hasn't looked good before today. I'm guessing no more than 2-3 went with him.

As for the battlers: assuming Squall holds on and we're left with ~60, I don't think we'll lose a single one for the entire quarterfinal round. I don't see anyone backing Samus.


Nah some will back Samus, it'd be insane against a noble to not have a shred of doubt in the trainers. All they've done is beaten some Street Fighter duo after all. Rightfully favourites but I'd be surprised to see a clean sweep in predictions for them.
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#392 | Kotetsu534 | Posted 12/12/2011 4:43:08 AM | message detail
Yep. It only takes like 15 hours.
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Praise the Black Turtle, Game of the Decade Guru Champ.
(Well, I never promised creativity, did I?!)
#393 | ExThaNemesis | Posted 12/12/2011 4:49:41 AM | message detail
Oh, this is over with. Almost 800 now, and Squall continues to trim the deficit in the US.

Good riddance, Kingdom Hearts, you constant blight.
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#394 | Kotetsu534 | Posted 12/12/2011 4:54:19 AM | message detail
800 vote barrier engaged. With votals so low, that's at least the equivalent of 1k or so in bygone contests.
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Praise the Black Turtle, Game of the Decade Guru Champ.
(Well, I never promised creativity, did I?!)
#395 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 12/12/2011 4:54:20 AM | message detail
Squall is getting really close to taking the lead in North America overall.

__Smurf__ | Posted 12/12/2011 6:44:50 AM | message detail | quote | (edited)
The bizarre North America love for Kingdom Hearts, there are no words.


It's a US thing, because Squall is over 55% in Canada, but still losing the US.
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#396 | __Smurf__ | Posted 12/12/2011 5:04:20 AM | message detail | (edited)
I'd imagine its to do with the US's love for Disney rather than anything KH specific? I think Disney is seen as a more of a kids exclusive thing in this part of the world, in the US it seems like more of a wide appeal thing like the Simpsons or whatever.
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#397 | __Smurf__ | Posted 12/12/2011 5:16:21 AM | message detail
well anyway assuming Squall wins this with somewhere between 51-52% I'm not really sure where that leaves conclusions on the two teams. As someone whos played both games I'd have said the FFVIII rivalry was infinitely more significant and relevant to the contest theme than the KH kids, which arguably wasn't much of a rivalry to begin with. Sora/Riku are as much a rivalry as Leon/Ada who got absolutely destroyed. i.e. they're more predominantly allies and lovers than enemies.

There were always theories that the sum of a teams parts could equal its total strength which put the KH duo in a strong place but seeing what Vergil did accompanied by a character who by rights is supposed to be weaker than Sora led me to only one conclusion. The KH duo have fallen off a cliff in terms of popularity, its supported by the Heart Division and was looking like a fine conclusion up until this. I don't really know what to think now, has Squall plummeted as well? Do rivalries actually not matter at all and the sum of its parts theory is correct? Is this just some sort of anomaly where the USA will vote Kingdom Hearts in large amounts over practically everything?

Interestingly if you look at the US/Europe figures from the 4-way involving Sora/Squall/Yoshi/Fox and compare them to today the results are practically mirroring the Squall/Sora contest in both regions. Although given that the poll was 3 years ago, Sora was supposed to have collapsed and Squall is supposed to have the stronger rivalry its very odd that the figures would remain consistent.
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#398 | Kotetsu534 | Posted 12/12/2011 5:21:24 AM | message detail
I dunno, I think the Sora/Riku rivalry is perceived as being better than you think. In KH1 the rivalry is actually quite good. They both more or less want the same thing (Kairi, their home back) but go about it in different ways. It probably doesn't hurt that the best stretch of the game includes two boss fights between them.
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Praise the Black Turtle, Game of the Decade Guru Champ.
(Well, I never promised creativity, did I?!)
#399 | Kotetsu534 | Posted 12/12/2011 5:22:01 AM | message detail
That Squall/Sora/Yoshi/Fox match was caused by Smilin' Squall. -_-
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Praise the Black Turtle, Game of the Decade Guru Champ.
(Well, I never promised creativity, did I?!)
#400 | CP724 | Posted 12/12/2011 5:24:06 AM | message detail
Seriously, I think smilin Squall is worse that solid !@#$