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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1034

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#301 | AsurasKordoth | Posted 12/11/2011 11:02:07 PM | message detail

From: pyresword | #297
I dont understand the whole theory that Squall gets votes from Kingdom Hearts.

Squall isn't even called Squall, its "Leon," unless there is like one scene or something. Unless people knew who Squall was before playing Kingdom Hearts, there would be no way to associate the KH "Leon" character with the Squall in the pole.


Depends on the picture. With casuals it's the difference between "hey i know that guy!" and "who the hell is this?". They vote for a character they recognize.
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#302 | Merc25 | Posted 12/11/2011 11:02:34 PM | message detail
Squall Leonhart vs. Seifer Almasy 49.99%

4049
Sora vs. Riku 50.01%

4051
TOTAL VOTES 8100
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#303 | LeonhartFour | Posted 12/11/2011 11:02:45 PM | message detail
Well, the fact that Squall and Seifer don't even know each other in the KH universe would keep KH fans from voting for a rivalry they know nothing about.
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#304 | SuperAngelo128 | Posted 12/11/2011 11:02:48 PM | message detail
although I wouldn't say I disliked Squall in FF8 I liked him a bit more in Kingdom hearts overall
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#305 | MoogleKupo141 | Posted 12/11/2011 11:03:07 PM | message detail
pyresword posted...
I dont understand the whole theory that Squall gets votes from Kingdom Hearts.

Squall isn't even called Squall, its "Leon," unless there is like one scene or something. Unless people knew who Squall was before playing Kingdom Hearts, there would be no way to associate the KH "Leon" character with the Squall in the pole.



They look the same. People have eyes. Also, knowing who Squall is because of FF8 does not necessarily equate to liking him because of FF8. The only reason I'd ever vote for Squall is KH, but I still know he's from FF8
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#306 | RottingToe | Posted 12/11/2011 11:03:28 PM | message detail
LeonhartFour posted...
Well, the fact that Squall and Seifer don't even know each other in the KH universe would keep KH fans from voting for a rivalry they know nothing about.

exactly.
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#307 | Lopen | Posted 12/11/2011 11:03:54 PM | message detail
Wow it's tough for Squall to take the lead and his momentum unnaturally stopped? Color me surprised!
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#308 | IngmarBirdman | Posted 12/11/2011 11:04:27 PM | message detail
I wasn't considering the games either. FF7 can stomp multiple games here but I wouldn't take FF8 over the KH series. Squall's still got this with individual strength but I should have bumped down the arbitrary Oracle safety.
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#309 | LeonhartFour | Posted 12/11/2011 11:05:14 PM | message detail
I think FFVIII beats either KH game, but it's close one way or the other.

But if KH2 had actually played up the Squall/Seifer rivalry, we wouldn't even having to be worrying about this silly match...!
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#310 | Ultimaphazon | Posted 12/11/2011 11:05:37 PM | message detail
Haha, if Sora wins this match, so many perfect battlers will be so mad.

I think I like Squall's odds right now, but this is the first really interesting match of the contest. Who would have expected that when we entered our brackets.
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#311 | SuperAngelo128 | Posted 12/11/2011 11:09:19 PM | message detail
ha I thought the fact there was still a 2 vote difference because I thought the poll refused to update

then I realized it just happened to still be a 2 vote difference somehow
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#312 | pyresword | Posted 12/11/2011 11:09:55 PM | message detail
Well, I guess why I dont get it is because I cant picture anyone voting for a character based on a non-canonical appearance of that character.

I guess if its a matter of voting "that guy from Kingdom Hearts" or "this other guy I've never heard of" I could see it, I guess I just underestimated hhow much that played a role in Squall's vote
#313 | LeonhartFour | Posted 12/11/2011 11:10:30 PM | message detail

From: pyresword | #312
Well, I guess why I dont get it is because I cant picture anyone voting for a character based on a non-canonical appearance of that character.


Yeah, it's not like we had three people right after you made your original post say that they do.
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#314 | LeonhartFour | Posted 12/11/2011 11:11:04 PM | message detail
I mean, canon really has nothing to do with it. If a character's cool, he's cool.
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#315 | Sorozone | Posted 12/11/2011 11:11:57 PM | message detail
Decent size cut again.
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#316 | sonicboom510 | Posted 12/11/2011 11:12:02 PM | message detail
#317 | LeonhartFour | Posted 12/11/2011 11:12:32 PM | message detail
looks like the Sora stuffers fell asleep

it was well past their bedtime anyway am I right
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#318 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 12/11/2011 11:13:20 PM | message detail
Sora has already started to lose percentage in the US. This happened last round when he lost percentage overnight against Dante before the morning vote kicked in.
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#319 | Lopen | Posted 12/11/2011 11:17:07 PM | message detail | (edited)
Pretty hard to not call this for Squall at this point. Sora only beat Dante by 700 votes total and Dante was behind 300-400 votes at this point. Unless you think Squall's day vote is going to be significantly weaker than Dante's.
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#320 | Naomi_Diamond | Posted 12/11/2011 11:16:49 PM | message detail
back to 50/50
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#321 | TheOneAboveAll | Posted 12/11/2011 11:17:36 PM | message detail
More like Squall stuffers that update. It's a tie!
#322 | LeonhartFour | Posted 12/11/2011 11:18:03 PM | message detail
Sora/Dante was a weekend match, so the trends were slightly different, but Squall still needs to get moving soon.
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#323 | Azp2k32 | Posted 12/11/2011 11:18:43 PM | message detail
pyresword posted...
Well, I guess why I dont get it is because I cant picture anyone voting for a character based on a non-canonical appearance of that character.


If Frog and/or Magus appeared as secret playable characters in FFX, their last match goes a completely different way, canon be damned. It's all about name/face recognition. Hell, I'd be surprised if Alucard/Dracula haven't been getting a fair amount of votes based off Dracula's sheer name recognition.
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#324 | FateStayAlbion | Posted 12/11/2011 11:20:40 PM | message detail | (edited)
Lopen posted...
Pretty hard to not call this for Squall at this point. Sora only beat Dante by 700 votes total and Dante was behind 300-400 votes at this point. Unless you think Squall's day vote is going to be significantly weaker than Dante's.

Well, both of the matches in 2008 had Sora ending up at a higher % then he was at 2 AM. So history supports Sora here, but I dunno if the ASV will be as strong as it was back then.
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#325 | PartOfYourWorld | Posted 12/11/2011 11:19:36 PM | message detail
No matter who wins this, it'll be close, which tells us that Squall/Seifer is roughly equal to Sora/Riku, which is roughly equal to Dante/Vergil. That's obviously not perfectly transitive (I'd take Squall's team to have a slightly easier time with Dante's than whatever the stats end up saying), but the three teams should still be in that same general strength area.

And that's kinda bad for Squall, and hell, Sora too (despite this potentially bracket-crushing result for him). I bet Squall would have been a B8 favorite over a team like the MK ninjas, and he would have gotten smashed.
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#326 | Lopen | Posted 12/11/2011 11:19:38 PM | message detail
Squall's obviously the one stuffing right now. They cut back on the flow a bit once Squall caught up-- no need to rush, then Sora dropped off and they interpreted it as a voting shift and cut the power to their stuffing turbines-- then it was variance and Squall got clobbered as a result.

True story
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#327 | Surskit | Posted 12/11/2011 11:19:55 PM | message detail
Squall Leonhart vs. Seifer Almasy 50% 4391
Sora vs. Riku 50% 4391

Amazing.
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#328 | RottingToe | Posted 12/11/2011 11:22:59 PM | message detail
best match of the contest right here
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#329 | LeonhartFour | Posted 12/11/2011 11:23:52 PM | message detail
Yeah, things wouldn't have turned out so well for Squall/Seifer elsewhere in the bracket.

But it will have the additional benefit of making people underestimate Squall the next time we have a 1-on-1 contest!
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#330 | RottingToe | Posted 12/11/2011 11:24:19 PM | message detail
damn squall

just damn...what an update
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#331 | Lopen | Posted 12/11/2011 11:25:20 PM | message detail
Yeah. Sub-Zero/Scorpion and Samus/Ridley were painfully wasted in this contest. Ryu/Ken to some extent too.
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#332 | RottingToe | Posted 12/11/2011 11:28:31 PM | message detail
Well I'm off to bed. I expect to see Squall/Seifer up by 300 when I wake up just in time for the ASV
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#333 | FastFalcon05 | Posted 12/11/2011 11:29:07 PM | message detail
It's Kingdom Hearts fanboys we're talking about here.

Right, and in a 50/50 poll, every fanboy counts.

I'm saying it's plausible KH fanboys would vote Squall over Sora, but not Squall vs. Unknown vs. Sora v. Riku. The idea of Sora v. Riku is more appealing than the idea of just Sora.

It doesn't really take many KH to feel that way to close the gap Charmander posted about on page 1.
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#334 | PartOfYourWorld | Posted 12/11/2011 11:29:13 PM | message detail
Bosses could have done some real work in this division. Hell, call me crazy, but Chris/Wesker might have made things interesting as well, especially if they had drawn Sora in a R1 night match. At least their rivalry spans 15 years and is more relevant today with RE5 and MvC3 than anything else the division has to offer.
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#335 | LeonhartFour | Posted 12/11/2011 11:30:01 PM | message detail
I was about to say "We'll just have to wait until the final X-Stats come out," but then I remembered that they're going to be borked beyond repair.
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#336 | SuperNiceDog | Posted 12/11/2011 11:31:16 PM | message detail
regardless of what happens now, this has been a great great match!
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#337 | ExThaNemesis | Posted 12/11/2011 11:33:45 PM | message detail

From: SuperNiceDog | #336
regardless of what happens now, this has been a great great match!


"great great"

featuring Final Fantasy VIII and Kingdom Hearts. Don't think so bro
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#338 | fallenstar | Posted 12/11/2011 11:36:07 PM | message detail
Hey it had more lead changes thus far than the rest of the contest :P.
Just waiting to see how far a lead Squall builds, and to see if sora can turn it come asv time.
Squall sure is taking his slow time to build a lead btw.
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#339 | Lopen | Posted 12/11/2011 11:36:31 PM | message detail
I don't think Samus wins this division. personally, so I don't think Bosses would do much here. (Which is what I meant by Samus was misused-- her division was too weak)
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#340 | Janus5000 | Posted 12/11/2011 11:54:11 PM | message detail
ahahahaha team KH just got a 61% update
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#341 | JJH777 | Posted 12/11/2011 11:55:19 PM | message detail
Past 4 updates: Squall leads 7. Sora leads 7. Squall leads 21. Sora leads 21.
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#342 | PartOfYourWorld | Posted 12/11/2011 11:56:09 PM | message detail
Against Majora, FFX began to really build its overnight lead at this point. Meanwhile, Squall is still down.
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#343 | Janus5000 | Posted 12/11/2011 11:56:09 PM | message detail
so next update squall leads by 63
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#344 | Janus5000 | Posted 12/11/2011 11:57:23 PM | message detail
Dante didn't really start cutting until around 4. Squall not moving isn't necessarily a bad sign for him.
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#345 | LeonhartFour | Posted 12/11/2011 11:57:55 PM | message detail
#346 | jacko_vdz | Posted 12/11/2011 11:59:33 PM | message detail
Wow this is tied almost 3 hrs in? Surely Sora has a good shot at this with the day vote!
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#347 | Lopen | Posted 12/11/2011 11:59:54 PM | message detail
I refuse to believe these updates are for real.
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#348 | LeonhartFour | Posted 12/12/2011 12:00:19 AM | message detail
#349 | LeonhartFour | Posted 12/12/2011 12:02:21 AM | message detail
#350 | Lopen | Posted 12/12/2011 12:04:07 AM | message detail
1. Stuffing/rallying on one or both sides because it's a high stakes match for people who pay too much attention to contests
2. Our votes don't actually count and someone just designed a contest trend simulator to simulate matches and gave it to Bacon to use
3. Legit updates

Those are my theories in order. I rather like the second theory.
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