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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1034

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#251 | Justin_Crossing | Posted 12/11/2011 10:02:45 PM | message detail
wow
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Black Turtle still didn't MAJORA'S MASK
#252 | Lopen | Posted 12/11/2011 10:03:05 PM | message detail

From: IngmarBirdman | #248
Yeah I knew there was something wrong with 68% on guys that can only make contests that are 4-ways.

Also Kingdom Hearts basically has its own Power Hour, jesus.


Kinda, yeah, but it's also Dante and Squall having terrible early votes.
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#253 | LeonhartFour | Posted 12/11/2011 10:03:56 PM | message detail
Oh, I see what the problem is with those X-Stats on the site.

I adjusted them again after I made that post explaining what I adjusted and why.

Here's the original set:

1. Link – 50.00%
2. Cloud Strife – 46.46%
3. Mario – 45.12%
4. Solid Snake – 44.52%
5. Samus Aran – 43.85%
6. Sephiroth – 41.88%
7. Mega Man – 40.05%
8. Missingno – 39.47%
9. Crono – 39.24%
10. Charizard – 38.69%
11. Sonic the Hedgehog – 37.54%
12. Vincent Valentine – 36.78%
13. Tifa Lockhart – 36.72%
14. Squall Leonhart – 36.35%
15. Pikachu – 35.61%
16. Auron – 35.04%
17. Bowser – 35.03%
18. Yoshi – 35.02%
19. Luigi – 35.01%
20. Kirby – 34.08%
21. Big Boss – 33.24%
22. Mega Man X – 32.72%
23. Ganondorf – 32.15%
24. Sora – 31.74%
25. Zelda – 31.70%
26. Ryu – 31.61%
27. Dante – 31.39%
28. Kratos – 31.00%
29. Ryu Hayabusa – 30.77%
30. Zack Fair – 30.71%
31. L-Block – 30.46%
32. Zero – 30.35%
33. Leon Kennedy – 29.88%
34. Aerith Gainsborough – 29.68%
35. Cid Highwind – 29.60%
36. Fox McCloud – 29.36%
37. Master Chief – 29.19%
38. Big Daddy – 29.05%
39. Rikku – 28.95%
40. Vivi Orunitia – 28.88%
41. Sub-Zero – 28.67%
42. Jill Valentine – 28.48%
43. Amaterasu – 28.30%
44. Alucard – 28.21%
45. Captain Falcon – 27.94%
46. Gordon Freeman – 27.93%
47. Commander Shepard – 27.77%
48. Duke Nukem – 27.66%
49. Lightning – 27.13%
50. Kefka – 26.85%
51. Shadow the Hedgehog – 26.83%
52. Ike – 26.67%
53. Mewtwo – 26.59%
54. Riku – 26.56%
55. Ness – 26.51%
56. Tidus – 26.46%
57. Meta Knight – 26.36%
58. Ridley – 26.28%
59. Princess Peach – 26.12%
60. Chris Redfield – 26.03%
61. Zidane Tribal – 25.84%
62. Terra Branford – 25.80%
63. Frog – 25.77%
64. Jecht – 25.54%
65. Altair – 25.53%
66. Yuna – 25.42%
67. Pokemon Trainer Red – 25.41%
68. Revolver Ocelot – 25.34%
69. Donkey Kong – 25.25%
70. Weighted Companion Cube – 24.62%
71. Protoman – 24.61%
72. Knuckles the Echidna – 24.52%
73. Miles “Tails” Prower – 24.19%
74. Phoenix Wright – 24.16%
75. Isaac – 24.07%
76. Ezio Auditore da Firenze – 24.02%
77. Darth Revan – 23.80%
78. Marth – 23.62%
79. Cecil Harvey – 23.54%
80. Crash Bandicoot – 23.51%
81. Roxas – 23.47%
82. Vault Boy – 23.42%
83. Magus – 23.40%
84. Akuma – 23.26%
85. Ken Masters – 23.26%
86. Spy – 23.23%
87. Albert Wesker – 23.11%
88. Midna – 23.09%
89. The Boss – 22.75%
90. Captain John Price – 22.43%
91. Ratchet – 22.39%
92. Soap MacTavish – 22.22%
93. Falco Lombardi – 22.11%
94. HK-47 – 22.00%
95. Nathan Drake – 21.67%
96. GlaDOS – 21.54%
97. Arthas Menethil – 21.17%
98. Sackboy – 21.03%
99. Liquid Snake – 20.98%
100. Laharl – 20.47%
101. Heavy – 20.21%
102. Thrall – 20.19%
103. Ramza Beoulve – 20.02%
104. Prinny – 20.01%
105. Marcus Fenix – 19.93%
106. Balthier Bunansa – 19.62%
107. Simon Belmont – 19.36%
108. Axel – 19.23%
109. Lloyd Irving – 19.22%
110. Kratos Aurion – 19.20%
111. The Prince of Persia – 18.69%
112. Niko Bellic – 18.68%
113. Geno – 18.66%
114. Travis Touchdown – 18.60%
115. Claptrap – 18.42%
116. Neku Sakuraba – 17.48%
117. Banjo – 17.74%
118. Captain MacMillan – 16.65%
119. Guybrush Threepwood – 16.60%
120. Jak – 16.38%
121. Wander – 16.13%
122. Miles Edgeworth – 15.81%
123. Yuri Lowell – 15.64%
124. Professor Layton – 15.03%
125. Fawful – 14.31%
126. Eddie Riggs – 14.16%
127. Ellis – 13.45%
128. Sandal – 10.78%
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#254 | Kotetsu534 | Posted 12/11/2011 10:05:46 PM | message detail
I realise Europe is only just waking up, but 67-33 is something else.
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#255 | ffmasterjose | Posted 12/11/2011 10:06:31 PM | message detail
Man out of all the upsets to happen we get THIS? Ugh.
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#256 | LeonhartFour | Posted 12/11/2011 10:06:59 PM | message detail
I guess after I readjusted them (I ended up readjusting them because I originally forgot to adjust Knuckles), I just put Kratos back to where he was before.

But you can use insert that value for Kratos in if you want to. The only real difference between the two sets of stats should be Knuckles and Kratos, but I haven't examined them thoroughly for any other inconsistencies.
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#257 | ExThaNemesis | Posted 12/11/2011 10:07:04 PM | message detail
Squall is really gonna have to boogie over night though. I can see Sora turning around anything in the ~500 range with his day vote.
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#258 | Lopen | Posted 12/11/2011 10:07:53 PM | message detail
Dante turned like 500 votes at night, and he was more behind than Squall and is relatively weaker in Europe.

Squall should easily get an insurmountable lead overnight.
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#259 | LeonhartFour | Posted 12/11/2011 10:08:40 PM | message detail
Oh right, yesterday's chart:

Time | Cloudoth | Solquid | Votes | Demographic
EBV | 55.14% | 44.86% | 613 | (0:00-0:05)
PHV | 59.21% | 40.79% | 5161 | (0:00-1:00)
FNV | 61.66% | 38.34% | 12182 | (1:00-6:00)
BSV | 62.61% | 37.39% | 5676 | (6:00-9:00)
DSV | 62.81% | 37.19% | 15597 | (9:00-14:30)
ASV | 62.40% | 37.60% | 16744 | (14:30-22:00)
SNV | 62.76% | 37.24% | 3295 | (22:00-24:00)

Cloud/Sephy are pretty consistent throughout after that first hour.
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#260 | Kotetsu534 | Posted 12/11/2011 10:08:44 PM | message detail
Squall will rock overnight, and likely hover/gain well into the day. That ASV scares me though.
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Praise the Black Turtle, Game of the Decade Guru Champ.
(Well, I never promised creativity, did I?!)
#261 | LeonhartFour | Posted 12/11/2011 10:09:45 PM | message detail
Squall should gain pretty consistently until the ASV once we hit the Euro-vote. KH doesn't really kick it into high gear until the ASV. Their morning vote isn't really that great.
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#262 | Lopen | Posted 12/11/2011 10:10:17 PM | message detail
Also BOLD PREDICTION cause I haven't done one in a while:

PHV is the only voting block Sora wins when Leon brings the CHART out tomorrow.
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#263 | LeonhartFour | Posted 12/11/2011 10:11:14 PM | message detail
It depends on what percentage Squall averages until then.

If Squall averages 55% until we hit the ASV or something, then yeah, Sora probably doesn't win the ASV outright.
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#264 | Lopen | Posted 12/11/2011 10:13:19 PM | message detail
I'm just saying Sora's going to underwhelm with the day vote since he's not the king

Need Master Chief vs Alien Scum in this bracket to show who the real king is. That's why this contest is so bad, just so you know.
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#265 | LeonhartFour | Posted 12/11/2011 10:14:44 PM | message detail
I still remember your claims of EVEN 10,000 VOTES IS NOT TOO MUCH FOR HALO in the Series Contest against Castlevania

Good times
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#266 | red sox 777 | Posted 12/11/2011 10:14:54 PM | message detail
Whoa, I didn't realize until now that Master Chief didn't make the bracket. How is that possible? He always gets high seeds.
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2002 Link, 2003 Cloud, 2004 Link, 2005 Link, 2006 Link, 2008 Link, 2010 Link, 2011 Cloud.
Link 6, Cloud 2
#267 | LeonhartFour | Posted 12/11/2011 10:15:18 PM | message detail

From: red sox 777 | #266
Whoa, I didn't realize until now that Master Chief didn't make the bracket. How is that possible? He always gets high seeds.


He doesn't have an individual rivalry.
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#268 | LeonhartFour | Posted 12/11/2011 10:15:44 PM | message detail
Also, as long as Board 8 is dominating the nomination process, tough luck, Master Chief.
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#269 | creativename | Posted 12/11/2011 10:16:14 PM | message detail

From: LeonhartFour | #1256
But you can use insert that value for Kratos in if you want to. The only real difference between the two sets of stats should be Knuckles and Kratos, but I haven't examined them thoroughly for any other inconsistencies.


OK, I'll take a closer look in the next couple days and use the ones you just gave :)

From: ExThaNemesis | #1257
Squall is really gonna have to boogie over night though. I can see Sora turning around anything in the ~500 range with his day vote.


He'll definitely do great overnight. Sora sucks overnight. And Squall should have a mild DSV edge. But the ASV and first part of the SNV will be ugly.

Here's the 15 minute trend charts from 2K8 for their matches:

www.gamefaqscontests.com/images/show_graph.php?matchnum=3286&type=2&seconds=900&max=0
www.gamefaqscontests.com/images/show_graph.php?matchnum=3297&type=2&seconds=900&max=0
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#270 | TheCodeisBosco | Posted 12/11/2011 10:18:57 PM | message detail
LMAO! Of all the matches that could have actually been shocking... it's this.

This makes Dante look pretty damn good, which is cool.
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#271 | creativename | Posted 12/11/2011 10:19:47 PM | message detail
This is probably the first match where we are really unsure about how things will turn out. Every other match that was close early, we knew the trends too well to really be unsure who'd win.

But this match is up in the air still. Sure took long enough!

From: Lopen | #1304
Need Master Chief vs Alien Scum in this bracket to show who the real king is. That's why this contest is so bad, just so you know.


Think Pokemon (depending on the Pokemon) or Kingdom Hearts would probably be the ASV king ahead of Halo.
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#272 | ExThaNemesis | Posted 12/11/2011 10:19:55 PM | message detail
Just looking at those charts, Squall should just eek it out, but this one's going to be close.

Great, a close match that I couldn't be more ambivalent about. Hate all four of these characters.
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#273 | Lopen | Posted 12/11/2011 10:20:42 PM | message detail

From: LeonhartFour | #267
He doesn't have an individual rivalry.


Yeah this pretty much. I nominate Chief every year but I couldn't really think of anything worth nominating him for.

I totally could've got him in though if I wanted. I got Sol/Ky in!
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#274 | LeonhartFour | Posted 12/11/2011 10:22:17 PM | message detail
Smash Bros. could still compete for ASV King, really.
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#275 | red sox 777 | Posted 12/11/2011 10:28:09 PM | message detail
Projections:

Based on Squall/Sora 2008 R3, Sora/Riku win with 52.19%.
Based on Squall/Sora 2008 R2, Sora/Riku win with 52.13%.

Those don't look good for Squall. Better hope the ASV's power has gone way down in the last 3 years.
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2002 Link, 2003 Cloud, 2004 Link, 2005 Link, 2006 Link, 2008 Link, 2010 Link, 2011 Cloud.
Link 6, Cloud 2
#276 | KamikazePotato | Posted 12/11/2011 10:30:24 PM | message detail
Don't know if anyone noticed, but Trainers/Fighters ended up beating Cloud/Snake in votals.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#277 | ExThaNemesis | Posted 12/11/2011 10:33:47 PM | message detail

From: KamikazePotato | #276
Don't know if anyone noticed, but Trainers/Fighters ended up beating Cloud/Snake in votals.


Trainers to win the contest confirmed.
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#278 | AxemRedRanger | Posted 12/11/2011 10:34:13 PM | message detail
Sora/Riku have been consistently entertaining this contest. Hitler match had fun trends followed by two close matches.
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#279 | Sorozone | Posted 12/11/2011 10:37:29 PM | message detail
Decent cut right there. Next update or two they might take over.
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#280 | Master Moltar | Posted 12/11/2011 10:37:34 PM | message detail
well that was an update
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#281 | FateStayAlbion | Posted 12/11/2011 10:37:34 PM | message detail
#282 | swordz9 | Posted 12/11/2011 10:38:47 PM | message detail
Who would have guessed Sora would have the most interesting matches this contest. He's giving us 2 close matches in a row.
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#283 | red sox 777 | Posted 12/11/2011 10:41:10 PM | message detail
Good night, hopefully Squall will built a massive lead when I wake up. I probably favor Sora right now though.
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2002 Link, 2003 Cloud, 2004 Link, 2005 Link, 2006 Link, 2008 Link, 2010 Link, 2011 Cloud.
Link 6, Cloud 2
#284 | sonicboom510 | Posted 12/11/2011 10:45:21 PM | message detail
#285 | Sorozone | Posted 12/11/2011 10:46:29 PM | message detail
And Squall takes the lead.
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#286 | RottingToe | Posted 12/11/2011 10:46:55 PM | message detail
Are the kiddies in school this week or do they all have Christmas vacation?
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#287 | TheCodeisBosco | Posted 12/11/2011 10:47:19 PM | message detail
Oh lordy. The night vote is going to be really ugly for the KH guys.
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#288 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 12/11/2011 10:49:09 PM | message detail
RottingToe | Posted 12/12/2011 1:46:55 AM | message detail | quote
Are the kiddies in school this week or do they all have Christmas vacation?


They are still in school this week. Next week is when high schools start to get off for Christmas vacation.
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#289 | Kijitow | Posted 12/11/2011 10:50:12 PM | message detail
My bracket says Squall, but my heart says Sora. I'm so conflicted.
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#290 | AxemRedRanger | Posted 12/11/2011 10:51:29 PM | message detail
If not all of this is rivalry factor or Seifer being awful, you know who looks really good as a result?
Bowser.
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#291 | LeonhartFour | Posted 12/11/2011 10:51:44 PM | message detail
#292 | RottingToe | Posted 12/11/2011 10:52:44 PM | message detail
-LusterSoldier- posted...
RottingToe | Posted 12/12/2011 1:46:55 AM | message detail | quote
Are the kiddies in school this week or do they all have Christmas vacation?

They are still in school this week. Next week is when high schools start to get off for Christmas vacation.


Well then I must pray for the night to be merciful and the kiddies to shine during the day.

Oh great and powerful KH ASV, do not fail me now...not when my bracket is on the leaderboard.
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#293 | FastFalcon05 | Posted 12/11/2011 10:54:52 PM | message detail
This isn't looking good for Squall.

I skimmed through the pages, but has anyone pointed out that a good chunk of people would know Squall from KH but not Seifer? There could be enough KH fans out there who prefer Squall to Sora solely on the basis of KH but not the idea of "Squall and Rando" vs "Sora v. Riku."

Sora is pretty intolerable as a character, but his rivalry with Riku is actually compelling.
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#294 | Solfadore | Posted 12/11/2011 10:55:58 PM | message detail
Ugh, Sora takes the lead again. It's not looking good for Squall. He'll grab a somewhat decent lead during the night, sure, but not enough to clinch victory over the KH ASV.

Oh well. Goodbye, perfect battle bracket. You will be missed.
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#295 | LeonhartFour | Posted 12/11/2011 10:56:24 PM | message detail
The idea that Seifer limiting Squall's appeal to FFVIII alone has been thrown around.
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#296 | SuperAngelo128 | Posted 12/11/2011 10:57:23 PM | message detail
I already forgot Seifer was in KH2

literally undeniable proof that he was totally owning those lamers
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#297 | pyresword | Posted 12/11/2011 10:59:12 PM | message detail
I dont understand the whole theory that Squall gets votes from Kingdom Hearts.

Squall isn't even called Squall, its "Leon," unless there is like one scene or something. Unless people knew who Squall was before playing Kingdom Hearts, there would be no way to associate the KH "Leon" character with the Squall in the pole.
#298 | PartOfYourWorld | Posted 12/11/2011 11:01:17 PM | message detail
I've never played FFVIII, and KH introduced me to Squall. I like him because of that series, not even his own game. I'm sure there are others like me and you can very reasonably assume that the average KH fan who frequents a site like this one knows that Squall Leonhart and "Leon" are one and the same.
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#299 | LeonhartFour | Posted 12/11/2011 11:01:27 PM | message detail
It doesn't really matter if you understand it or not! There's pretty substantial evidence out there that it does help him.

Plus, people do read the indexes and stuff, where Leon's bio says that he's Squall Leonhart from FFVIII.

And the fact that he's the coolest FF character in the series helps him out quite a bit. I've also heard people say that they didn't like him in FFVIII, but they like him in KH.

All sorts of explanations can exist for why KH helps him, but it's hard to say that it doesn't.
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#300 | RottingToe | Posted 12/11/2011 11:01:39 PM | message detail
FastFalcon05 posted...
This isn't looking good for Squall.

I skimmed through the pages, but has anyone pointed out that a good chunk of people would know Squall from KH but not Seifer? There could be enough KH fans out there who prefer Squall to Sora solely on the basis of KH but not the idea of "Squall and Rando" vs "Sora v. Riku."

Sora is pretty intolerable as a character, but his rivalry with Riku is actually compelling.

KH fans will look at this poll and say
"Oh, two Kingdom Hearts rivalries against each other! But wait Squall/Siefer? What? lol w/e, Sora and Riku are the main characters anyways so it doesn't matter *votes Sora/Riku*"

It's Kingdom Hearts fanboys we're talking about here.
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