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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1034

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#201 | Kotetsu534 | Posted 12/11/2011 9:32:34 PM | message detail
Squall gonna force his way! http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CZMWszd5SRk
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#202 | 14_and_counting | Posted 12/11/2011 9:33:01 PM | message detail

From: GrapefruitKing | #159
Pokemon Trainer Red vs Pokemon Trainer Blue
Cloud vs Sephiroth


That is your Final.


wait, you made a mistake, Link/Ganondorf should be in there




No one respects the LAW more than me. How often do I say things like



BOW DOWN TO THE EIGHT TIME CHAMP!!!. And my blood literally boils when thinking about the cheating of L Block*, or that a Wind Waker picture was the only reason he lost in 03. (**** all L Block* voters)

I hope I'm wrong, and I would never say flat out that Link would lose, but I feel right now, after this match, there is just no way to not think Cloud and Seph are going to do this. If you want to claim second character stength matters, then you are looking at like the 20th strongest character on this site vs the third. If you want to say rivalry matters, then you are looking at a really good rivalry across many games, vs one of the best rivalries in the contest.


At this current juncture, unless Link and Cloud are so big compared to everyone else (totally possible by the way) that the match still becomes Link vs Cloud part 11, I don't see how Link overcomes this.
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From: Regaro_Ukiera |
MWC is god-tier
#203 | JJH777 | Posted 12/11/2011 9:33:10 PM | message detail
So assuming Sora/Riku do win how many perfect battle brackets are left tomorrow? Think we'll still have 10 or so? Or even less?
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#204 | creativename | Posted 12/11/2011 9:33:21 PM | message detail

From: Team Rocket Elite | #903
ATTN: LeonHart

Where on the board 8 wiki can one find your adjusted x-stats for the last character contest?


This might be it but I'm not sure:
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/X-stats#Winter_2010_X-Stats


Thanks. I saw those though, I think they are unadjusted.

From: LeonhartFour | #909
What's wrong with my stats on the site? Not sure why they would've changed.


Because I was looking and I think I have some stuff wrong. For instance your adjustment explanation says "Didn't like where Kratos was, so I bumped him down just a little below Sora arbitrarily, admittedly" but the adjusted value for Kratos is much higher than Sora.
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#205 | LeonhartFour | Posted 12/11/2011 9:33:27 PM | message detail
Yeah, Battle Brackets will get wrecked by this result if it holds.
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#206 | LeonhartFour | Posted 12/11/2011 9:34:21 PM | message detail

From: creativename | #204
Because I was looking and I think I have some stuff wrong. For instance your adjustment explanation says "Didn't like where Kratos was, so I bumped him down just a little below Sora arbitrarily, admittedly" but the adjusted value for Kratos is much higher than Sora.


Oh? Hmm.

I'll see if I can scrounge them up.
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#207 | PartOfYourWorld | Posted 12/11/2011 9:37:06 PM | message detail
Just got home and LMFAO

My expanded thoughts in a few minutes.
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#208 | red sox 777 | Posted 12/11/2011 9:37:52 PM | message detail
Squall is at 66% in Europe. If that holds up, Sora's in for a world of hurt in a few hours.
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#209 | ExThaNemesis | Posted 12/11/2011 9:39:05 PM | message detail
Oh my goodness what is happening.

My heart goes out to those perfect battle brackets if this result holds.
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#210 | Kotetsu534 | Posted 12/11/2011 9:39:27 PM | message detail
Forza Sora/Riku: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ajZhlZzHWhk
(Forza del male)
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#211 | Luis_Sera89 | Posted 12/11/2011 9:39:51 PM | message detail
This is all somehow Leon's fault.
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#212 | WhiteLens | Posted 12/11/2011 9:40:27 PM | message detail
Well maybe banking on the Trainers vs Fighters match wasn't such a bad idea after all.
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#213 | creativename | Posted 12/11/2011 9:40:37 PM | message detail
Yeah this upset would be totally out of left field. This match was like not discussed at all. It would be like Magus/Knuckles.

Everyone was talking about how such and such reach upset pick might ruin the cookie cutter brackets, but it certainly wasn't this match.

And people are talking about Squall getting a lead, he should do well overnight and with the DSV, but if he's already losing now I don't like his chances. The KH ASV and SNV are too good. And the Power Hour shouldn't really favor either side, so Sora winning right now is a good sign for him.

However, there's a long way to go so who knows.
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#214 | ExThaNemesis | Posted 12/11/2011 9:40:40 PM | message detail
This just makes absolutely zero sense. There's no way that Riku helps close the gap that Squall has repeatedly displayed on Sora.
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#215 | LeonhartFour | Posted 12/11/2011 9:41:04 PM | message detail
Honestly, this match isn't over. Squall still has a good chance of coming back and winning this fairly comfortably.

But this result will pretty much be the death knell of getting any other FFVIII characters into 1-on-1 contests, so this match sucks immeasurably.
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#216 | ExThaNemesis | Posted 12/11/2011 9:41:16 PM | message detail

From: WhiteLens | #212
Well maybe banking on the Trainers vs Fighters match wasn't such a bad idea after all.


Yeah, banking right before this probably won you prizes.
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#217 | Kotetsu534 | Posted 12/11/2011 9:41:33 PM | message detail
First proper update win for Squall.
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#218 | LeonhartFour | Posted 12/11/2011 9:41:35 PM | message detail

From: ExThaNemesis | #214
This just makes absolutely zero sense. There's no way that Riku helps close the gap that Squall has repeatedly displayed on Sora.


This isn't a 1-on-1 contest. Don't look at it that way.
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#219 | 14_and_counting | Posted 12/11/2011 9:41:46 PM | message detail

From: ExThaNemesis | #216
Yeah, banking right before this probably won you prizes.




I banked on Frog Alucard.
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From: Regaro_Ukiera |
MWC is god-tier
#220 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 12/11/2011 9:41:52 PM | message detail
Squall is doing his best to keep the lead from growing out of control here.
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#221 | JJH777 | Posted 12/11/2011 9:42:03 PM | message detail
51-49 isn't really that much of a gap (I know Cloud SFFs Squall more than Sora but not that much more).
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#222 | Kotetsu534 | Posted 12/11/2011 9:42:05 PM | message detail
Hey, I'm still up for Laguna! No one else though.
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#223 | LeonhartFour | Posted 12/11/2011 9:42:05 PM | message detail

From: Kotetsu534 | #217
First proper update win for Squall.


Nah, he won the 15 minute update.
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#224 | red sox 777 | Posted 12/11/2011 9:42:48 PM | message detail
I guess Riku is just way stronger than Seifer.
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#225 | Kotetsu534 | Posted 12/11/2011 9:42:58 PM | message detail
He did (also the 31 minutes one), but not by more than 10 votes.
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#226 | LeonhartFour | Posted 12/11/2011 9:43:44 PM | message detail

From: red sox 777 | #224
I guess Riku is just way stronger than Seifer.


It doesn't even matter if he is.

Meta Knight would beat Robotnik very, very easily.
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#227 | Janus5000 | Posted 12/11/2011 9:44:45 PM | message detail
Pre-contest, this upset didn't seem bad at all - not that Squall/Seifer's a bad rivalry, but Sora/Riku a rivalry that (sort of) spans multiple games and features two characters which have been established to at least not suck. I took it and felt pretty good until the KH pair started actually having matches.
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#228 | Kotetsu534 | Posted 12/11/2011 9:44:50 PM | message detail
There wasn't anything obvious going against Sora in this match and he got destroyed by Squall (unless you think Sonic overlaps with him): http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2918
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#229 | red sox 777 | Posted 12/11/2011 9:45:35 PM | message detail
Or Sora/Riku is a better (meaning more appealing to voters) rivalry then Squall/Seifer. One of those. Riku being stronger than Seifer feels more likely to me.
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2002 Link, 2003 Cloud, 2004 Link, 2005 Link, 2006 Link, 2008 Link, 2010 Link, 2011 Cloud.
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#230 | Kotetsu534 | Posted 12/11/2011 9:45:49 PM | message detail
It probably helps that Sora and Riku have cool boss fights with each other. I might not care for KH that much, but I can see the appeal of Sora/Riku as rivals. Oh well.
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#231 | creativename | Posted 12/11/2011 9:46:17 PM | message detail

From: ExThaNemesis | #1054
This just makes absolutely zero sense. There's no way that Riku helps close the gap that Squall has repeatedly displayed on Sora.


The gap wasn't that large though. As I said on the first page of this topic:

In 4-ways, Sora got 48.17% on Squall, then 48.99% when Cloud was added in. In my hyper-adjusted x-stats Sora is projected to get 46.63% on Squall. Now many suspect Sora has gotten weaker since then, however Riku should be stronger than Seifer.

So Squall should get between 52%-53% on Sora 1v1 based on prior results. That's not a big gap. It's why I was so surprised people were going over 55% for Squall here.
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#232 | JJH777 | Posted 12/11/2011 9:46:55 PM | message detail

From: Kotetsu534 | #228
There wasn't anything obvious going against Sora in this match and he got destroyed by Squall (unless you think Sonic overlaps with him): http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2918


Squall Leonhart 50.00%
Sora 48.17%
Yoshi 42.42%
Fox McCloud 38.13%

Year later. No overlap with any of those characters. Much more relevant.
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#233 | LeonhartFour | Posted 12/11/2011 9:47:33 PM | message detail
Riku is probably stronger than Seifer.

But these results aren't 1-on-1 correlations, so they shouldn't be treated that way.
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#234 | Kotetsu534 | Posted 12/11/2011 9:47:51 PM | message detail
Also known as "Smilin' Squall" >.>
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#235 | Bigwig_rah | Posted 12/11/2011 9:48:01 PM | message detail
*Squall cuts again*

Go freedom train go!
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#236 | MoogleKupo141 | Posted 12/11/2011 9:48:08 PM | message detail
here comes the comeback

come on Squall.
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#237 | UltimaterializerX | Posted 12/11/2011 9:48:20 PM | message detail
So, crisis averted?
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#238 | red sox 777 | Posted 12/11/2011 9:48:44 PM | message detail
So Squall should get between 52%-53% on Sora 1v1 based on prior results. That's not a big gap. It's why I was so surprised people were going over 55% for Squall here.

Part of it was that I expected SFF, and part of it is that Sora went from 56% on Yoshi to 47% on Bowser from 2008 to 2010, a pretty big difference.
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#239 | LeonhartFour | Posted 12/11/2011 9:49:28 PM | message detail

From: UltimaterializerX | #237
So, crisis averted?


Eh, there wasn't much reason to have a crisis unless Sora was up like 55/45 at the end of the hour or something. Squall was going to come back and take the lead eventually.

Match is still up for grabs overall though, just depends on what Squall can do before the ASV.
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#240 | LeonhartFour | Posted 12/11/2011 9:49:57 PM | message detail

From: red sox 777 | #238
and part of it is that Sora went from 56% on Yoshi to 47% on Bowser from 2008 to 2010, a pretty big difference.


You can blame Fox for that.

Or just blame Yoshi for looking like complete and utter crap that year.
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#241 | red sox 777 | Posted 12/11/2011 9:50:11 PM | message detail
Riku is probably stronger than Seifer.

But these results aren't 1-on-1 correlations, so they shouldn't be treated that way.


If we don't have a better, alternative, way to think about them, of course we're going to use the tools we have. I think people are pretty well aware that this format doesn't line up exactly with 1v1.
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2002 Link, 2003 Cloud, 2004 Link, 2005 Link, 2006 Link, 2008 Link, 2010 Link, 2011 Cloud.
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#242 | creativename | Posted 12/11/2011 9:50:22 PM | message detail

From: Kotetsu534 | #1108
There wasn't anything obvious going against Sora in this match and he got destroyed by Squall (unless you think Sonic overlaps with him): http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2918


That was in 2K7. Sora and Squall were both together again in 2K8 and it was much closer.
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#243 | LeonhartFour | Posted 12/11/2011 9:52:05 PM | message detail

From: red sox 777 | #241
I think people are pretty well aware that this format doesn't line up exactly with 1v1.


People seem puzzled by some of these percentages because it doesn't line up with 1-on-1 results, so I'm not sure I agree with that.
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#244 | Bigwig_rah | Posted 12/11/2011 9:52:57 PM | message detail
UltimaterializerX posted...
So, crisis averted?

Lets not say things like "crisis averted" until the crisis is actually averted.
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#245 | Lopen | Posted 12/11/2011 9:53:52 PM | message detail
Yeah. I'm convinced that the board has enough sway in close matches with these lowered vote totals that it's literally impossible for the underdog to win in a close one unless the underdog is Pokemon or something. I'm also convinced that against Squall Sora's strongest time is now. So yeah Squall should have this.
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#246 | ExThaNemesis | Posted 12/11/2011 9:53:56 PM | message detail
Squall is terrible and all. Normally I'd be A-Okay with him choking it up.

But it's against Kingdom Hearts... I'd root for his sorry ass over these girls.
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#247 | Xuxon | Posted 12/11/2011 9:57:07 PM | message detail

From: creativename | #231
So Squall should get between 52%-53% on Sora 1v1 based on prior results. That's not a big gap. It's why I was so surprised people were going over 55% for Squall here.


I just assumed Sora < Dante because Riku > Vergil. And my Squall estimate was higher than your stats, though I'm not really sure why, I've overestimated Squall every round this contest.
#248 | IngmarBirdman | Posted 12/11/2011 10:00:51 PM | message detail
Yeah I knew there was something wrong with 68% on guys that can only make contests that are 4-ways.

Also Kingdom Hearts basically has its own Power Hour, jesus.
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#249 | SuperNiceDog | Posted 12/11/2011 10:01:15 PM | message detail
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CZMWszd5SRk

GO Squall!! Lionheart!
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#250 | KingBartz | Posted 12/11/2011 10:02:34 PM | message detail
Lionheart
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