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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1034

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#151 | Team Rocket Elite (Moderator) | Posted 12/11/2011 9:12:44 PM | message detail
Score-Brackets-% Right
88------171--------100.00
87------19----------100.00
86------12----------100.00
85------6------------100.00
84------26----------100.00
83------72----------98.61
82------54----------98.15
81------52----------96.15
80------77----------98.70
79------72----------95.83
78------319--------99.06
77------149--------95.30
76------164--------94.51
75------227--------96.04
74------278--------93.17
73------305--------93.77
72------344--------93.60
71------430--------95.12
70------442--------90.95
69------470--------89.79
68------498--------90.16
67------567--------90.48
66------586--------88.05
65------578--------88.24
64------598--------88.13
63------612--------86.27
62------574--------83.62
61------612--------81.70
60------610--------82.30
59------610--------80.82
58------555--------80.54
57------557--------77.02
56------476--------74.79
55------476--------72.48
54------442--------72.85
53------411--------70.07
52------337--------69.73
51------303--------70.96
50------303--------64.36
49------251--------59.76
48------209--------53.11
47------200--------69.00
46------179--------58.10
45------145--------55.86
44------137--------45.26
43------124--------54.03
42------113--------51.33
41------91----------41.76
40------87----------54.02
39------71----------49.30
38------68----------50.00
37------63----------46.03
36------47----------51.06
35------38----------23.68
34------42----------30.95
33------38----------36.84
32------25----------24.00
31------23----------26.09
30------31----------29.03
29------19----------52.63
28------16----------25.00
27------10----------20.00
26------16----------56.25
25------6------------33.33
24------7------------14.29
23------9------------11.11

19------3------------33.33
18------4------------25.00
17------4------------25.00

13------2------------50.00

9--------5------------20.00

6--------6------------33.33

It's not that nearly 80% is bad for a prediction percentage but I would have expected more from Cloud. I guess Mario and Link didn't have to deal with an opponent like Snake. Everyone within 4 points of perfect got the match right and -18 (70 points) and better stay above 90.

No one fell off the Top 50.
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#152 | ZenOfThunder | Posted 12/11/2011 9:12:56 PM | message detail
hahaha it would be so funny if THIS was the only match people talked about when this is over
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#153 | AlecTrevelyan006 | Posted 12/11/2011 9:13:16 PM | message detail
Of course this is the night i've already taken sleeping stuff.
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#154 | red sox 777 | Posted 12/11/2011 9:13:21 PM | message detail
Bracket voters. Such a powerful effect. I guess bracket voters got rid of 2/3 of Crono's board vote against Vincent too, so it stands to reason they can swing more than 100% of most board vote gaps.
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2002 Link, 2003 Cloud, 2004 Link, 2005 Link, 2006 Link, 2008 Link, 2010 Link, 2011 Cloud.
Link 6, Cloud 2
#155 | voltch | Posted 12/11/2011 9:13:29 PM | message detail
Birth By Sleep boost
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Vote for this guy in every contest: War
#156 | 14_and_counting | Posted 12/11/2011 9:13:36 PM | message detail
And with that, for the FIRST time, I am now there.



Cloudiroth>LINK.



Fact, and this is now undeniable, not just rivalries matter.


RIVALRIES REALLY ****ING MATTER


Pokemon Trainer Red vs Pokemon Trainer Blue
Cloud vs Sephiroth


That is your Final.
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From: Regaro_Ukiera |
MWC is god-tier
#157 | RPGLord95 | Posted 12/11/2011 9:14:17 PM | message detail
this is a conspiracy .... Ngamer is somehow involved
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#158 | Kotetsu534 | Posted 12/11/2011 9:14:52 PM | message detail
Sora, you are becoming quite a nuisance. Killed me in CBVIII by sucking it up and now killing me here by showing up!
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#159 | GrapefruitKing | Posted 12/11/2011 9:15:10 PM | message detail
Pokemon Trainer Red vs Pokemon Trainer Blue
Cloud vs Sephiroth


That is your Final.


wait, you made a mistake, Link/Ganondorf should be in there
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Oracle Challenge ~ Rank: 15th ~Today's prediction: Cloud / Seph - 61.16%
#160 | 14_and_counting | Posted 12/11/2011 9:15:47 PM | message detail

From: ZenOfThunder | #152
hahaha it would be so funny if THIS was the only match people talked about when this is over




Red vs Blue>Samus vs Ridley will be talked about for a long time.



It still does not officially break the Noble Nine (as they have never lost one on one in a 24 hour match) but it would be the first loss ever sustained by one of them in a 24 hour non 4 way match.
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From: Regaro_Ukiera |
MWC is god-tier
#161 | ViviffTheMobile | Posted 12/11/2011 9:15:55 PM | message detail
Who would ever bracket-vote Cloud or Sephiroth unless it's against Link/BS Snake/OoT? They win comfortably everywhere else.
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#162 | red sox 777 | Posted 12/11/2011 9:16:10 PM | message detail
And with that, for the FIRST time, I am now there.



Cloudiroth>LINK.



Fact, and this is now undeniable, not just rivalries matter.


RIVALRIES REALLY ****ING MATTER


Pokemon Trainer Red vs Pokemon Trainer Blue
Cloud vs Sephiroth


That is your Final.


Welcome aboard. Let's do this.
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2002 Link, 2003 Cloud, 2004 Link, 2005 Link, 2006 Link, 2008 Link, 2010 Link, 2011 Cloud.
Link 6, Cloud 2
#163 | JJH777 | Posted 12/11/2011 9:16:17 PM | message detail
This isn't really evidence of rivalries really mattering Sora got 49% of Squall last time they had a poll together. Bowser last year was at his strongest if Charizard didn't get stronger from the Bowser match to Mario match. I definitely think he did get stronger throughout the contest but I don't buy a big difference between those two since the Bowser one was on HG/SS release day.
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#164 | MoogleKupo141 | Posted 12/11/2011 9:17:50 PM | message detail
I hate this. If Squall loses, I'm burning my copy of FF VIII.
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#165 | MegatokyoEd | Posted 12/11/2011 9:18:05 PM | message detail
If Sora/Riku wins this I might seriously have a chance at winning the contest. I have Trainers over Samus too.

I just need them to actually lose to Mario.
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#166 | 14_and_counting | Posted 12/11/2011 9:18:05 PM | message detail

From: red sox 777 | #162
And with that, for the FIRST time, I am now there.



Cloudiroth>LINK.



Fact, and this is now undeniable, not just rivalries matter.


RIVALRIES REALLY ****ING MATTER


Pokemon Trainer Red vs Pokemon Trainer Blue
Cloud vs Sephiroth


That is your Final.


Welcome aboard. Let's do this.




There ain't no getting off this train we're on.
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From: Regaro_Ukiera |
MWC is god-tier
#167 | Kotetsu534 | Posted 12/11/2011 9:18:06 PM | message detail
There is so much evidence of rivalries mattering it's weird to deny it. Just means Seifer is bringing little while Riku brings something (we knew that from Sora/Dante in R2 though - Dante wouldn't struggle with Sora 1v1).
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#168 | UItimaterializer | Posted 12/11/2011 9:18:12 PM | message detail
Link/Ganon actually is a legit and good rivalry though.

Cloud/Seph is just fangirl yaoi fanfic stuff at this point.
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#169 | LeonhartFour | Posted 12/11/2011 9:18:40 PM | message detail

From: Kotetsu534 | #167
Dante wouldn't struggle with Sora 1v1


I'm still not sure how anyone says this with confidence unless you're talking strictly night matches!
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#170 | LeonhartFour | Posted 12/11/2011 9:19:03 PM | message detail

From: UItimaterializer | #168
Cloud/Seph is just fangirl yaoi fanfic stuff at this point.


You...realize that has nothing to do with the rivalry...right
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#171 | KamikazePotato | Posted 12/11/2011 9:19:08 PM | message detail
Cloud/Seph in FF7>>>Link/Ganondorf.

Link/Ganondorf>>>Cloud/Seph outside of FF7
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#172 | red sox 777 | Posted 12/11/2011 9:19:29 PM | message detail
wait, you made a mistake, Link/Ganondorf should be in there

I hope you realize you're talking to the guy who regularly exalts the wonderful strength of Link and talks about how Link could beat <insert several strong character> all by himself with both hands tied behind his back. If he's not taking Link, that should be a sign to you!
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2002 Link, 2003 Cloud, 2004 Link, 2005 Link, 2006 Link, 2008 Link, 2010 Link, 2011 Cloud.
Link 6, Cloud 2
#173 | JJH777 | Posted 12/11/2011 9:19:50 PM | message detail
I do think they matter just not 10% difference in character strengths like everyone else seems to think. I don't think changing the name of the contest can possibly have that big of an effect and in every example where a character over performed to those extents there are other explanations. Besides I guess Trainers vs Ryu/Ken.
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#174 | charmander6000 | Posted 12/11/2011 9:20:06 PM | message detail
Dante wouldn't struggle with Sora 1v1

I would hesitate to call Dante the favourite IMO.
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Rivalry Rumble: 77/92 Today: Sora/Riku
#175 | KingBartz | Posted 12/11/2011 9:20:45 PM | message detail
This might be the most interesting match this contest. I hope the close battle keeps up!
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wat
#176 | vcharon | Posted 12/11/2011 9:20:46 PM | message detail
I kinda felt this might happen. Squall has looked bad in this format.

Interesting.
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:>
#177 | KingBartz | Posted 12/11/2011 9:21:28 PM | message detail
lol this is over.
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wat
#178 | _Regaro_ | Posted 12/11/2011 9:21:28 PM | message detail
#179 | Lopen | Posted 12/11/2011 9:21:33 PM | message detail
Yeah, I feel kinda vindicated. Even if Squall wins I think Dante could've easily taken this-- SFF split favors Squall so yeah. (Reverse SFF right here!)
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#180 | Xuxon | Posted 12/11/2011 9:21:34 PM | message detail
this match isn't even evidence of rivalries mattering, only the second character mattering. Squall/Seifer is pretty cool as a rivalry. Seifer on his own isn't that great.
#181 | MegatokyoEd | Posted 12/11/2011 9:21:41 PM | message detail
I do think they matter just not 10% difference in character strengths like everyone else seems to think. I don't think changing the name of the contest can possibly have that big of an effect and in every example where a character over performed to those extents there are other explanations. Besides I guess Trainers vs Ryu/Ken.

What about Subby/Scorp?
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#182 | LeonhartFour | Posted 12/11/2011 9:21:50 PM | message detail
#183 | Team Rocket Elite (Moderator) | Posted 12/11/2011 9:23:07 PM | message detail
ATTN: LeonHart

Where on the board 8 wiki can one find your adjusted x-stats for the last character contest?


This might be it but I'm not sure:
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/X-stats#Winter_2010_X-Stats
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Pokemon VGC2011 US Nationals - 54th place
Pokemon VGC2012 NW Regional - 16th place
#184 | MoogleKupo141 | Posted 12/11/2011 9:23:28 PM | message detail
Lopen posted...
Yeah, I feel kinda vindicated. Even if Squall wins I think Dante could've easily taken this-- SFF split favors Squall so yeah. (Reverse SFF right here!)

This is totally Riku stealing Squall's KH votes. Squall wouldn't be having trouble with Dante.
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At least Kupo has class and doesn't MESSAGE the people -Dr Pizza
#185 | hylianknight3 | Posted 12/11/2011 9:23:45 PM | message detail
Pokemon Trainer Red vs Pokemon Trainer Blue
Cloud vs Sephiroth

That is your Final.


As a Link fan, I think I could go for this. Especially the first part.
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#186 | KingBartz | Posted 12/11/2011 9:23:49 PM | message detail

From: KingBartz | #177
lol this is over.


From: _Regaro_ | #178
Hm

This match is over


Excellent same time posts
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wat
#187 | red sox 777 | Posted 12/11/2011 9:24:05 PM | message detail
This looks like it could end really close. Squall needs......let's say 1500 votes at 3 PM tomorrow.
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2002 Link, 2003 Cloud, 2004 Link, 2005 Link, 2006 Link, 2008 Link, 2010 Link, 2011 Cloud.
Link 6, Cloud 2
#188 | JJH777 | Posted 12/11/2011 9:25:09 PM | message detail

From: MegatokyoEd | #181
I do think they matter just not 10% difference in character strengths like everyone else seems to think. I don't think changing the name of the contest can possibly have that big of an effect and in every example where a character over performed to those extents there are other explanations. Besides I guess Trainers vs Ryu/Ken.

What about Subby/Scorp?


Ada sucks extremely bad + MK9. For the MMX/Zero match hopefully just MMX isn't as close to Mega Man as everyone thought. We'll know for sure after Mario vs MMX.
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#189 | LeonhartFour | Posted 12/11/2011 9:25:39 PM | message detail
What's wrong with my stats on the site? Not sure why they would've changed.
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#190 | Lopen | Posted 12/11/2011 9:26:24 PM | message detail
I think if Squall gets ahead by 1000 he'll be safe. Squall to some extent exhibits FF7 trends too and I'm pretty sure this will be his weakest point in the poll. KH's fabled ASV will probably be weaker percentagewise than the firsst three hours.
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#191 | transcience | Posted 12/11/2011 9:26:25 PM | message detail
well, even if Squall wins I think it's safe to say Seifer is a bust. we can also finally say that Kingdom Hearts is propping Squall up to a certain extent. I would think Auron/whoever would be doing better just because FF10 is a more respected game.
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#192 | creativename | Posted 12/11/2011 9:27:11 PM | message detail
I was thinking that this match would end up closer than people thought. Was going to drop my Squall pick by a couple points, but was way too engrossed in the awesome Giants game and it was midnight by the time it ended.

From: Kotetsu534 | #807Dante wouldn't struggle with Sora 1v1).


I agree with others - people are underrating Sora. As I said earlier, if you adjust Sora to 47% on Bowser that's not bad at all. Sora/Dante 1v1 would be close. (before the new druggie DMC release of Dante anyway)

From: Xuxon | #860
this match isn't even evidence of rivalries mattering, only the second character mattering. Squall/Seifer is pretty cool as a rivalry. Seifer on his own isn't that great.


Agreed. Rivalries for sure matter, but this match says nothing about that.
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#193 | LeonhartFour | Posted 12/11/2011 9:27:27 PM | message detail
Well, I suppose someone out there thought I still needed convincing that this was the worst contest ever.
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#194 | Kotetsu534 | Posted 12/11/2011 9:27:50 PM | message detail
Is this going to be a fateful night for Sora and Riku? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_JUlNMAklhs
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Praise the Black Turtle, Game of the Decade Guru Champ.
(Well, I never promised creativity, did I?!)
#195 | KingBartz | Posted 12/11/2011 9:28:03 PM | message detail
All this talk of Squall getting ahead by X amount of votes, when he may very well be hard-pressed to see the lead again!
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wat
#196 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 12/11/2011 9:28:14 PM | message detail
red sox 777 | Posted 12/12/2011 12:24:05 AM | message detail | quote
This looks like it could end really close. Squall needs......let's say 1500 votes at 3 PM tomorrow.


Back in 2008, Sora cut about 1600 votes off Squall's lead in the match without Cloud in there. That was when Squall and Sora combined for about 75000 votes. With the ASV being weaker now than in 2008, 1000 should be enough with these votals.
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#197 | Bigwig_rah | Posted 12/11/2011 9:29:40 PM | message detail
Oh god looking at the Squall pick in my battle bracket is like watching an episode of Destroyed in Seconds.
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#198 | Xuxon | Posted 12/11/2011 9:30:08 PM | message detail

From: transcience | #191
well, even if Squall wins I think it's safe to say Seifer is a bust. we can also finally say that Kingdom Hearts is propping Squall up to a certain extent. I would think Auron/whoever would be doing better just because FF10 is a more respected game.


Auron/Jecht, yeah, but that's obvious because Jecht is worth something. No way Auron/Yunalesca is winning this match.
#199 | red sox 777 | Posted 12/11/2011 9:30:25 PM | message detail
Well, I suppose someone out there thought I still needed convincing that this was the worst contest ever.

Man, you've got to support Cloud/Seph over Link if you want to have some fun this contest! Either that, or root for Pokemon. Or root for Link to crush everything again. But I know you don't really like the latter two so the first is your only option!

I'd probably agree with 1000 as a target for 3 PM. The ASV is a lot weaker than it used to be because the site has gotten older.
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2002 Link, 2003 Cloud, 2004 Link, 2005 Link, 2006 Link, 2008 Link, 2010 Link, 2011 Cloud.
Link 6, Cloud 2
#200 | LeonhartFour | Posted 12/11/2011 9:31:06 PM | message detail
Nope, there will be no more fun for me in this contest.

I have literally voted for the winner exactly once this round, so I pretty much have zero rooting interest left in this contest.
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