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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1034

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#451 | RottingToe | Posted 12/12/2011 8:04:27 AM | message detail
Oh what a nice vote cut. Keep it up Sora.
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#452 | The Mana Sword | Posted 12/12/2011 8:05:49 AM | message detail
Well played.
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#453 | __Smurf__ | Posted 12/12/2011 8:07:37 AM | message detail

From: The_Djoker | #441
Link doesn't go anywhere near 56% I'm sorry that's just fanboy talk.


I've literally never voted for Link in a final. I don't even "like" Link, whatever feelings I have for the Zelda series are overruled by the destruction his dominance has brought on the contest for the past 7 years so I'm deeply offended by that accusation, sir!
I will always vote for Cloud and hope he wins, a 56% prediction is realism talk based on performances so far, the LoZ obsession on this site, the FF7 collapse in recent years and probable Skyward Sword owners hovering about.
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#454 | LOLContests | Posted 12/12/2011 8:08:54 AM | message detail
Surprisingly good votals for a SFF match. Should outdo Sora/Dante
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#455 | LOLContests | Posted 12/12/2011 8:11:54 AM | message detail
Ooh, two cuts and a stall in the last 3 updates. I like the sound of this one.

Keep in mind that Squall/Sora R3 in 2008 is the second largest comeback of all time, adjusted for votals, and R2 is still Top 15.
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#456 | charmander6000 | Posted 12/12/2011 8:12:30 AM | message detail
Like Ryu Dante is a surprisingly low vote draw relative to his strength.
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/Rivalry%20BOP.xls
Rivalry Rumble: 77/92 Today: Sora/Riku
#457 | The Mana Sword | Posted 12/12/2011 8:15:26 AM | message detail
Sora's not coming back from this. Vote intake is too low this contest.
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#458 | aNiceLay | Posted 12/12/2011 8:17:45 AM | message detail
Nooo Sora! You deserve to win everything ;(
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#459 | red sox 777 | Posted 12/12/2011 8:23:23 AM | message detail
Yeah, far from over if 2008 has anything to say about it.
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2002 Link, 2003 Cloud, 2004 Link, 2005 Link, 2006 Link, 2008 Link, 2010 Link, 2011 Cloud.
Link 6, Cloud 2
#460 | LOLContests | Posted 12/12/2011 8:26:58 AM | message detail
Votals are not nearly as important as percentages when determining comeback possibilities, and by the latter counter Sora is still in it. What he has working against him are weaker trends this contest, not the lower votals.
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#461 | pjbasis | Posted 12/12/2011 8:27:16 AM | message detail
Ashamed to be a Squall fan and missed the beginning of this match.

But I'm here now, and it looks like everything is gonna be ok.
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#462 | FateStayAlbion | Posted 12/12/2011 8:55:23 AM | message detail
Well if Sora wants to win this, he has to prove he is infact the king of the ASV. Don't like his chances, though.
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#463 | charmander6000 | Posted 12/12/2011 9:12:39 AM | message detail
Sora needs the US to swing hard too, right now Canada is keeping North America on Squall's side.
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/Rivalry%20BOP.xls
Rivalry Rumble: 77/92 Today: Sora/Riku
#464 | KamikazePotato | Posted 12/12/2011 9:14:31 AM | message detail
Haha, wow. I figured Squall was going to put it away with the night vote but not by this much.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#465 | The_Djoker | Posted 12/12/2011 9:59:20 AM | message detail

From: __Smurf__ | #453
I've literally never voted for Link in a final. I don't even "like" Link, whatever feelings I have for the Zelda series are overruled by the destruction his dominance has brought on the contest for the past 7 years so I'm deeply offended by that accusation, sir!
I will always vote for Cloud and hope he wins, a 56% prediction is realism talk based on performances so far, the LoZ obsession on this site, the FF7 collapse in recent years and probable Skyward Sword owners hovering about.




Collapse? FFVII has never collapsed. Zelda/Nintendo getting stronger on this site doesn't mean FFVII collapsed. FFVII is the only game that can hold it's own against Nintendo elite on this site. The ONLY game. Cloud has been the only character ever to Beat Link. FFVII has been the only thing to beat Zelda. It's more impressive how FFVII has been able to hold it's own all these years despite 1 game and a few spin off appearances. IT's still an absolute beast on this site and one of the most popular games. Unfortunately for Cloud and co, so was OoT(another iconic game for this site).
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#466 | RottingToe | Posted 12/12/2011 10:09:24 AM | message detail
Too early to call this a stall?
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#467 | __Smurf__ | Posted 12/12/2011 10:12:15 AM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1363
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3853

You can call it what you like but its a pretty sharp decline in authority for both the FFVII boys who at one stage along with Link formed the trio that were on a different planet to everyone else. These days Cloud struggles for 52% against the mid-tier nobles and Sephiroth is well capable of losing to those he once could 60-40.

I remember the days when 59% on Samus was seen as a disaster for Cloud. He's just happy to win that now.
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#468 | TheOneAboveAll | Posted 12/12/2011 10:15:52 AM | message detail
Yeah Smurf, but Cloud isn't that much weaker against Link than he was back then. I think that's more Clinkeroth reaching a peak (Sephy has probably fallen a bit but not Cloud) and Samus and Snake getting much stronger than it is FFVII dropping. Because if FFVII has dropped that much, that means that Link has pretty much dropped close to that much as well.
#469 | The Mana Sword | Posted 12/12/2011 10:16:01 AM | message detail
Those polls are like 7 years apart! That's not a "sharp" decline!
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#470 | The Mana Sword | Posted 12/12/2011 10:17:37 AM | message detail
I mean, Cloud did better against Link last year then he ever did since winning in 2003.

It's not so much that Cloud and Sephiroth have dropped off, the entire upper field has gotten closer together.
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#471 | red sox 777 | Posted 12/12/2011 10:19:01 AM | message detail
FFVII has fallen pretty hard, but so has Link.
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2002 Link, 2003 Cloud, 2004 Link, 2005 Link, 2006 Link, 2008 Link, 2010 Link, 2011 Cloud.
Link 6, Cloud 2
#472 | RottingToe | Posted 12/12/2011 10:29:57 AM | message detail
I'd like to take a break from our regularly scheduled FF decline talk to point out that Squall has been slowly bleeding % for the last hour and is gaining votes at a decreasingly slower rate, and stalled for a while there.

I estimate that Sora will need to average around a 12 vote cut per update to pull off a comeback. That's probably way off though.
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#473 | FateStayAlbion | Posted 12/12/2011 10:31:18 AM | message detail
If Sora can keep it under 1500 by the time the ASV starts, I'll give him a small chance of being able to win. Like, 10-15%.
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#474 | The_Djoker | Posted 12/12/2011 10:44:06 AM | message detail
Enough of this crappy match. God i can't wait until this is over, not only do we get ito the business end of the Contest but we don't get to see those little kids on the front of GF for a long time.

Anyway.....MArio/Bowser...does he do better against the MMX duo than he did on Sonic?
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#475 | The_Djoker | Posted 12/12/2011 10:46:56 AM | message detail

From: FateStayAlbion | #473
If Sora can keep it under 1500 by the time the ASV starts, I'll give him a small chance of being able to win. Like, 10-15%.


I'd give them no chance. Sora is good..but he's no Link.
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#476 | Wii_TuRtLe | Posted 12/12/2011 10:47:52 AM | message detail
FateStayAlbion posted...
If Sora can keep it under 1500 by the time the ASV starts, I'll give him a small chance of being able to win. Like, 10-15%.

He's not going to be able to swing that much
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#477 | AlecTrevelyan006 | Posted 12/12/2011 11:18:53 AM | message detail
I can't believe Sora and Riku, bottom tier characters in terms of quality, are managing to lose to an even worse character.

At least Seifer is okay I guess.
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#478 | th3l3fty | Posted 12/12/2011 11:19:55 AM | message detail

From: RottingToe | #472
I'd like to take a break from our regularly scheduled FF decline talk to point out that Squall has been slowly bleeding % for the last hour and is gaining votes at a decreasingly slower rate, and stalled for a while there.


the percentage hasn't moved more than .1 away from 52.42% in the last five hours

I would hardly qualify that as bleeding %!
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#479 | __Smurf__ | Posted 12/12/2011 11:28:30 AM | message detail
I don't really agree with people putting 2004 on rivalry or villain levels of badness. It was a very disappointing contest but for different reasons, reasons that are more unfortunate with unfoldings than it being a bad idea and bracket from the outset.

SFF was an unproven theory at the time which explains why there was some shadow of doubt over that first division. It wasn't a popular belief but there was some suspicions that the villains could overperform using rSFF on the big cheeses of their respective games. I believe somebody who went perfect for all of round 1 chose Ganon over Link in round 2 because of that. It was a pretty horrible idea and the division turned out dull but there were talking points and at least potential for something interesting to happen. Not least the Mario/Crono placement, who knew the votal decline would lead to that being so one sided after what it had delivered in previous years.

The frog matches alone lit up the contest, are there were other interesting results like DK choking, Ryu Arabusha and hey a different winner than the previous. It was a hard act to follow from 2003 and was a lower point compared to other contests but it was on a way different planet to this mess.
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#480 | Wii_TuRtLe | Posted 12/12/2011 11:28:58 AM | message detail
AlecTrevelyan006 posted...
I can't believe Sora and Riku, bottom tier characters in terms of quality, are managing to lose to an even worse character.

At least Seifer is okay I guess.


It's hard to be surprised given how many times we've seen this match.
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#481 | TheOneAboveAll | Posted 12/12/2011 11:29:26 AM | message detail
Sora needs to start making cuts and big ones soon to have chance.
#482 | __Smurf__ | Posted 12/12/2011 11:29:37 AM | message detail
And Sora hasn't a hope here, even if he was against Magus or DK in this position he'd have a lot to do.
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#483 | FateStayAlbion | Posted 12/12/2011 11:32:32 AM | message detail
Theres a 17 vote cut to start the ASV. Lets hope theres more of that to come!
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#484 | Kotetsu534 | Posted 12/12/2011 11:34:19 AM | message detail | (edited)
Sora/Riku need to cut 13.3 votes per update average to win. Since the last couple of hours are not going to be that good for them, they really need to be doing better than that throughout the ASV.
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#485 | FateStayAlbion | Posted 12/12/2011 11:34:55 AM | message detail
Kotetsu534 posted...
Sora/Riku need to cut 13.3 votes per update average to win. Since the last couple of hours are not going to be that good for them, they really need to be doing better than that throughout the ASV.

I don't see why they wouldn't do well in the 2nd night vote. Thats a heavy US voting block, since Europe is asleep... and the only place Squall is really dominating is Europe.
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#486 | AlecTrevelyan006 | Posted 12/12/2011 11:35:00 AM | message detail

From: Wii_TuRtLe | #480
AlecTrevelyan006 posted...
I can't believe Sora and Riku, bottom tier characters in terms of quality, are managing to lose to an even worse character.

At least Seifer is okay I guess.


It's hard to be surprised given how many times we've seen this match.


It surprises me every time!

How could a character as miserable as Squall Leonhart do anyhting at all in this contest?
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#487 | red sox 777 | Posted 12/12/2011 11:35:27 AM | message detail
1517 lead at 2:30 as we shift to the ASV. It's a shame I'm not going to online all afternoon, because we are about to see some fireworks. Hopefully when I get back this evening Squall will be defending a small lead as Sora continues to make gains in the transition from ASV to SNV.
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2002 Link, 2003 Cloud, 2004 Link, 2005 Link, 2006 Link, 2008 Link, 2010 Link, 2011 Cloud.
Link 6, Cloud 2
#488 | RottingToe | Posted 12/12/2011 11:36:20 AM | message detail
Aaaaahahaha, Squall just won an update.

The kiddies are slow getting home today.
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#489 | red sox 777 | Posted 12/12/2011 11:36:40 AM | message detail
Kingdom Hearts has a strong SNV, yes. They'll keep on gaining through to the end of the poll, only there's very few votes coming in at the end.

Also to the person who said Sora isn't Link: Sora's ASV is much better than Link's. KH, Halo, and Smash have the 3 strongest ASVs in the contest.
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2002 Link, 2003 Cloud, 2004 Link, 2005 Link, 2006 Link, 2008 Link, 2010 Link, 2011 Cloud.
Link 6, Cloud 2
#490 | RottingToe | Posted 12/12/2011 11:37:07 AM | message detail
Just curious, what's Sora's SNV history like?
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#491 | red sox 777 | Posted 12/12/2011 11:37:28 AM | message detail
3 PM is when the ASV really starts......2:30 to 3 is just transition zone.
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2002 Link, 2003 Cloud, 2004 Link, 2005 Link, 2006 Link, 2008 Link, 2010 Link, 2011 Cloud.
Link 6, Cloud 2
#492 | RottingToe | Posted 12/12/2011 11:37:59 AM | message detail

From: red sox 777 | #491
3 PM is when the ASV really starts......2:30 to 3 is just transition zone.


Ah, so this is just the stall period?
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#493 | th3l3fty | Posted 12/12/2011 11:39:11 AM | message detail

From: red sox 777 | #489
Also to the person who said Sora isn't Link: Sora's ASV is much better than Link's. KH, Halo, and Smash have the 3 strongest ASVs in the contest.


Pokemon?
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#494 | Kotetsu534 | Posted 12/12/2011 11:39:43 AM | message detail
I don't see why they wouldn't do well in the 2nd night vote. Thats a heavy US voting block, since Europe is asleep... and the only place Squall is really dominating is Europe.

I'm sure this has been said to you many times, but there are more to trends than lining up the geo-location results with what area is voting. Look at these graphs and watch how Sora slows down at the end while Squall stabilises:

http://images.wikia.com/board8/images/a/ad/Graph3286.png
http://images.wikia.com/board8/images/1/1b/Graph3297.png
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#495 | red sox 777 | Posted 12/12/2011 11:40:36 AM | message detail
Last time they met, Sora cut 1486 votes off of Squall's lead from the peak, in a match where they combined for about 45k votes.
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2002 Link, 2003 Cloud, 2004 Link, 2005 Link, 2006 Link, 2008 Link, 2010 Link, 2011 Cloud.
Link 6, Cloud 2
#496 | red sox 777 | Posted 12/12/2011 11:41:44 AM | message detail
Pokemon?

Historically, I don't think it's been quite up there with the big 3. That's probably the 4th most fearsome ASV I guess.
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2002 Link, 2003 Cloud, 2004 Link, 2005 Link, 2006 Link, 2008 Link, 2010 Link, 2011 Cloud.
Link 6, Cloud 2
#497 | Wii_TuRtLe | Posted 12/12/2011 11:42:34 AM | message detail
AlecTrevelyan006 posted...
From: Wii_TuRtLe | #480
AlecTrevelyan006 posted...
I can't believe Sora and Riku, bottom tier characters in terms of quality, are managing to lose to an even worse character.

At least Seifer is okay I guess.

It's hard to be surprised given how many times we've seen this match.
It surprises me every time!

How could a character as miserable as Squall Leonhart do anyhting at all in this contest?


I'll take an emo git over clown shoes any day.
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#498 | RottingToe | Posted 12/12/2011 11:43:50 AM | message detail

From: red sox 777 | #495
Last time they met, Sora cut 1486 votes off of Squall's lead from the peak, in a match where they combined for about 45k votes.


In that case, Sora may have a chance.
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#499 | AlecTrevelyan006 | Posted 12/12/2011 11:44:35 AM | message detail
I know I'm biased about 2k4, but it is not as bad as people make it out to be.

Ryu H/Jill craziness, and then the winner somehow lost to Sora? Frog vs. Liquid Snake and then Frog vs. Master Chief? Tidus/Shadow "lol"? Snake/Tanner >_>

Late rounds were pretty boring compared to the high standards of previous contests, but Crono finally beat Mario in his third try, and there was a different winner from the previous contest (Remember, in 2004 we didn't know about THE LAW). Hell, even Frog vs. Solid **** was hilarious.
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#500 | AlecTrevelyan006 | Posted 12/12/2011 11:44:43 AM | message detail