GameFAQs Contests

Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1033

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#251 | Kotetsu534 | Posted 12/10/2011 3:08:16 PM | message detail
Cloud put 52% on Solid on his own, despite him having every reason to overperform given he'd just powered past Sephiroth and few really wanted a Link/Cloud final. Hold the match at a more neutral time, throw in Seph and Liquid and that number should rise substantially, and that's before you consider that Solid/Liquid's performances so far haven't been that great (IMO). I'd be disappointed if this isn't in the high 50s.
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#252 | HaRRicH | Posted 12/10/2011 3:13:05 PM | message detail
60% on the Snakes is a high mark...but since Link/Ganon has shown Cloud/Sephiroth up the past two rounds and just put up another great (though near-meaningless) win over a Noble Niner, Cloud/Seph have to prove their worth somewhere. We won't get a good read on them against Squall/Seifer or Sora/Riku, either, so now's the time.

Cloud beats Snake again before considering the loss of SSBB's boost, Sephiroth kills Liquid again, FF7 >> MGS1, and FF7's focused rivalry > Snakes' scattered rivalry. That might be enough to hit 60%, which would be enough for me to feel some suspense leading up to Link/Ganon again.

Give us a reason to feel the hype!
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#253 | IngmarBirdman | Posted 12/10/2011 3:13:44 PM | message detail
Snake team may not be so bad if it turns out Pac-Man was just overperforming. Pac did beat expectations against the Crash team.

Snake looked normal against Crono as well.
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#254 | White_Tiger | Posted 12/10/2011 3:22:35 PM | message detail
Anti votes will keep Cloud/Seph from looking impressive.
#255 | The_Djoker | Posted 12/10/2011 3:51:34 PM | message detail
Why do people keep going on about Performances vs other contestants so much? Remember the whole 09 best game ever? FFVII supposedly had more impressive performances..it was the favourite, OoT won the match comfortably....twice.

IT all comes down to Next week whenever the match is. Clouderoth have it in them to win..key word there is THEM. IT's not Link/Cloud match. It's Link vs Cloud/Seph. We all know ganon doesn't do abslute *** in this matchup.

Can Link really beat Cloud AND sephiroth combined? Probably, but I got this feeling.

You...me...WE ALL have to believe this will happen. IF link loses it wil be the greatest moment in contest history imo. I can't believe more people aren't behind this. Get behind every FF fansite you know. This NEEDS to happen.

Also i'm not FF fanboy...in fact i was one of those people who was incredibly joyful when OoT(my fav. game ever) beat FFVII.

But Link/Ganon is a pretty average rivalry.
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#256 | SuperAngelo128 | Posted 12/10/2011 4:01:41 PM | message detail
some FF7 haters probably wouldn't want Cloud/Seph to be the Link beaters
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#257 | GranzonEx | Posted 12/10/2011 4:03:01 PM | message detail
Link losing after SS boost? LOL
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#258 | Safer Sephiroth 777 | Posted 12/10/2011 4:09:05 PM | message detail
It doesn't work that way.Yeah Cloud and Sephiroth combined have more power than Link and Ganon.That is true.But it doesn't work that way.People only vote for Link,that is the one they care.Link could be paired with CATS and still win.
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#259 | The_Djoker | Posted 12/10/2011 4:17:32 PM | message detail
#260 | th3l3fty | Posted 12/10/2011 4:23:24 PM | message detail
I don't think anything will ever surpass L-Block > Link in terms of greatest moments
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#261 | LeonhartFour | Posted 12/10/2011 4:24:30 PM | message detail
#262 | Azp2k32 | Posted 12/10/2011 4:24:49 PM | message detail
#263 | th3l3fty | Posted 12/10/2011 4:26:52 PM | message detail
Cloud > Link involves two bad characters who cares about that
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thelefty for analysis crew 2008 imo -tranny
I have a third degree burn in flame-o-nomics -Sir Chris
#264 | Ngamer64 | Posted 12/10/2011 4:28:19 PM | message detail
Mario > Cloud
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#265 | Kotetsu534 | Posted 12/10/2011 4:28:28 PM | message detail
Why do people keep going on about Performances vs other contestants so much?

Put it this way: if Link/Ganon had got 65% on MM/Wily would you think Cloud/Seph had a greater or lesser chance of beating them? Or if Cloud/Seph go out and 70/30 the Snakes?

And it was contested throughout the '09 contest who was performing better. At the time it wasn't thought that RBY was as strong as it is today, which probably contributed to more people siding with FFVII. It was also a 4-way contest, which are tougher to read with so much LFF.
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#266 | LeonhartFour | Posted 12/10/2011 4:29:09 PM | message detail
Well, really, Squall > Luigi was the best result of all time, but that goes without saying.

I thought we were just talking about contest-winning performances.
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#267 | Kotetsu534 | Posted 12/10/2011 4:29:09 PM | message detail
FFVII > OoT
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#268 | red sox 777 | Posted 12/10/2011 4:44:42 PM | message detail
For tonight, Cloud/Seph need:

To stay in this thing: 55%
To be the favorite: 60%
To be a virtual lock: 65%
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2002 Link, 2003 Cloud, 2004 Link, 2005 Link, 2006 Link, 2008 Link, 2010 Link, 2011 Cloud.
Link 6, Cloud 2
#269 | Haste_2 | Posted 12/10/2011 4:45:33 PM | message detail
Well, really, Squall > Luigi was the best result of all time, but that goes without saying.

I still remember how shocked Board 8 was on that day....man.... everyone thought Luigi was close to Mario's level back then.... some even had Luigi > Samus in their bracket.

For Cloud/Sephiroth to scare me and actually make me think they'd have any kind of shot on Link/Ganondorf, they'll need about 65%, I say. For Kratos to equal Pac-Man Cloud/Sephiroth will need 64.12% on Solid/Liquid. Now, Pac-Man's team probably beats that of Kratos, but if you take into account Cloud/Sephiroth anti-votes, it wouldn't be too illogical to think Kratos/Zeus could end up slightly higher than Pac-Man/Blinky. Of course, lol x-stats.... C/S will probably end up getting like 55%, anyway.

To have a SERIOUS chance at Link/Ganondorf I say C/S need 68% or so tomorrow.
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#270 | GrapefruitKing | Posted 12/10/2011 4:45:59 PM | message detail
more like

To stay in this thing: 60%
To be the favorite: 65%
To be a virtual lock: 70%
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#271 | LeonhartFour | Posted 12/10/2011 4:46:46 PM | message detail
I don't think 60% makes them the favorite. It's enough to stay in it, but they'd have to get a doubling before I'd seriously consider beating Link.

Mostly because I don't think much of Solid/Liquid as a rivalry from what I've seen from their first two matches.
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#272 | red sox 777 | Posted 12/10/2011 4:47:40 PM | message detail
What? 65% on Snake is absurdly strong. Link couldn't come close to that. The only way Cloud could possibly manage that is getting that old Playstation SFF.
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2002 Link, 2003 Cloud, 2004 Link, 2005 Link, 2006 Link, 2008 Link, 2010 Link, 2011 Cloud.
Link 6, Cloud 2
#273 | LeonhartFour | Posted 12/10/2011 4:48:33 PM | message detail
I have a hard time thinking Link doesn't blow the doors off of the Snakes.

Once again, this isn't the same as gauging a 1-on-1 match.
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#274 | Haste_2 | Posted 12/10/2011 4:50:16 PM | message detail
If Link can get 75% on Mega Man/Wily, then he might be capable of 70% on Snake/Liquid.... sadly....

In fact, if Link scored 70% on Snake/Liquid that still puts Pac-Man/Blinky above Ammy/(who?) by a significant margin in the stats.
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"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."
#275 | GrapefruitKing | Posted 12/10/2011 4:52:23 PM | message detail
What? 65% on Snake is absurdly strong.

yes, it is absurdly strong, which is how strong they need be in order to beat Link/Ganondorf
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Oracle Challenge ~ Rank: 16th ~Today's prediction: Aludrac - 53.77%
#276 | JJH777 | Posted 12/10/2011 4:53:31 PM | message detail
Through Cloud/Link and Cloud/Snake how much does Link actually get on Snake indirectly? If Cloud gets 65% tonight he is winning the contest. He won't though.
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#277 | KamikazePotato | Posted 12/10/2011 4:54:16 PM | message detail
Link/Ganondorf got 75% on Mega Man/Wily. Even after accounting for SFF, that's just stupidly strong.
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#278 | red sox 777 | Posted 12/10/2011 4:54:29 PM | message detail
I really doubt the format turns a 56/44 match 1v1 into a doubling for Link. Ganondorf is as far from Link as Liquid is from Solid, and I'm not seeing the extra rivalry synergy. Iconicness, sure, but I really doubt iconicness is that important- we just saw the Trainers blow the doors off a super iconic rivalry.

Link can double Nintendo related stuff at his pleasure, but that's just SFF. Tripling Megaman really doesn't mean that much, many of us thought it had a good chance of happening. If Cloud/Seph get 65% tonight, either it's because they are the ones getting SFF on Snake (a real possibility based on past FF/MGS stuff) or Link is doomed.
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2002 Link, 2003 Cloud, 2004 Link, 2005 Link, 2006 Link, 2008 Link, 2010 Link, 2011 Cloud.
Link 6, Cloud 2
#279 | Haste_2 | Posted 12/10/2011 4:58:12 PM | message detail | (edited)
Solid/Liquid and Crono/Lavos seem to be about equal to Snake and Crono themselves. However, Link/Ganondorf seems to be worth about 60% on Link alone when comparing L/G's Round 3 performance to past Link/Mega Man matches.... Link got 68% on MM in 2004 and 68% on MMX in 2010. That is why it appears at this point that Cloud/Sephiroth realy need to blow the Snakes out this round. Who knows, though?

Edit: I apologize for all my stats talk. It's just too much fun to do.

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#280 | LeonhartFour | Posted 12/10/2011 4:58:12 PM | message detail

From: red sox 777 | #278
I really doubt the format turns a 56/44 match 1v1 into a doubling for Link.


We've already seen this format is conducive to ridiculous results we don't normally see.

I would expect at least 60% for Link/Ganondorf on the Snakes. Cloud/Sephy would need more than that to make me even consider the upset.
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#281 | red sox 777 | Posted 12/10/2011 5:02:21 PM | message detail
Link gets about 55.5% on Snake through Link/Cloud and Cloud/Snake from last year. It's actually almost identical to what he got directly on bandwagoned Snake in the 2008 final, interestingly enough. Of course, that was a stronger Link, so it looks like the dropoff in Link's strength and Snake not having a bandwagon in 2010 just about canceled each other exactly.

As said, Link getting 75% on MM means nothing. Link got 67% on MM in 2004, when MM was much stronger, and without rivalry factor.

However, Link/Ganondorf seems to be worth about 60% on Link alone when comparing L/G's Round 3 performance to past Link/Mega Man matches.... Link got 68% on MM in 2004 and 68% on MMX in 2010.

MM 2004 >> MM now. MM now > MMX now. And MM > MM/Wily. X is also harder to SFF for Link because more of his games are on non-Nintendo systems. So to me, it looks more like Link/Ganondorf = Link.
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2002 Link, 2003 Cloud, 2004 Link, 2005 Link, 2006 Link, 2008 Link, 2010 Link, 2011 Cloud.
Link 6, Cloud 2
#282 | M13_SF | Posted 12/10/2011 5:06:15 PM | message detail
anything under 60% and Cloud/Sephiroth have no chance against Link IMO. If they can get mid 60s I would give them a 50-50 chance. I think Link/Ganon get around 65-67% on the Snakes.

I have this feeling that Cloud/Seph will disappoint , 54-56% is what they will probably get imo.
#283 | Haste_2 | Posted 12/10/2011 5:09:08 PM | message detail | (edited)
Something else to keep in mind if you think Link/Ganondorf can't get over 60% on Solid/Liquid:

Zelda: Ocarina of Time would arguably struggle to double Metal Gear Solid, but Zelda as a series got 74% on Metal Gear in the Series Contest. Now, Link/Ganondorf is not the Legend of Zelda series, but pairing Link/Ganondorf together certainly puts you one step closer to it.

Maybe the series contest is meaningless, but I'm just throwing it out there that if game matches can be drastically different by the type of contest (nobody, pre-contest, thought Legend of Zelda would destroy Metroid or Metal Gear like it did), it could be the same with characters.

Edit: Of course, because I just argued about all this, I'm sure now that the Snakes will be worth more than 40% on Link in the final x-stats!

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."
#284 | red sox 777 | Posted 12/10/2011 5:16:55 PM | message detail
Well, I think Link can break 60% on the Snakes, but 65% is really out there. There's a great chance that Cloud/Seph don't break 60% tonight. Say they get 58%. If Link gets a doubling on the Snakes, that projects them to get 60% on Cloud/Seph. If you want to predict that........well, too bad for you I guess.

So 60% I think is a good target for Cloud/Sephiroth tonight. They don't actually need it, but I'll be comfortable calling them the favorites if they do get it. It's about what I'd take Link to get.
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2002 Link, 2003 Cloud, 2004 Link, 2005 Link, 2006 Link, 2008 Link, 2010 Link, 2011 Cloud.
Link 6, Cloud 2
#285 | LeonhartFour | Posted 12/10/2011 5:17:48 PM | message detail
I didn't say Link would get it.

But I'd be surprised to see him get under 60%, so I can't call Cloud/Sephiroth the favorites just because they get 60%.
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#286 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 12/10/2011 5:42:31 PM | message detail
red sox 777 | Posted 12/10/2011 8:02:21 PM | message detail | quote
Link gets about 55.5% on Snake through Link/Cloud and Cloud/Snake from last year. It's actually almost identical to what he got directly on bandwagoned Snake in the 2008 final, interestingly enough. Of course, that was a stronger Link, so it looks like the dropoff in Link's strength and Snake not having a bandwagon in 2010 just about canceled each other exactly.


I do think Snake had a bandwagon against Cloud in 2010. It just wasn't enough to win against Cloud. I'll call Snake's match against Cloud to be an overperformance, because I'd probably pick Cloud to get around 55% on a non-bandwagoned Snake if they had a re-match.
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#287 | Neosadus | Posted 12/10/2011 5:48:19 PM | message detail
The real question is how many extra votes does Sephiroth add to Cloud? I'd love to see someone break the law, but end the end I can't really see the FFVII duo getting an extra 10% more people on board who isn't already voting for "FFVII". Especially when their combined power changed nothing about (such as over-riding/over-coming) the fact they are still getting anti-voted up the wazoo. Going from the last cloud vs snake battle 52-48, Cloud/Seph will need at least 61-63% to make it look interesting against Link. And that's not even taking into account how much liquid's factor might set solid back in this match.

So I agree with others that it needs to be 63-65% and we will have something to hype-up/crap-talk about in the semi's.
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#288 | foxhead84 | Posted 12/10/2011 7:09:18 PM | message detail | (edited)
http://image.com.com/gamefaqs/images/rivals/rivals-55-1.jpg
http://image.com.com/gamefaqs/images/rivals/rivals-55-2.jpg

lol It's the same picture for the snakes
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#289 | charmander6000 | Posted 12/10/2011 7:15:15 PM | message detail
Match LV: (1) Cloud Strife/Sephiroth vs. (2) Solid Snake/Liquid Snake

Previous Round

Cloud Strife/Sephiroth – 76.78%
Kratos/Zeus – 23.22%

Pac-Man/Blinky – 32.36%
Solid Snake/Liquid Snake – 67.64%

Analysis

While Solid Snake was able to upset Sephiroth in the last contest before falling to Cloud in the following round I don’t think anyone should feel Solid Snake should have a chance with the combined power of the two, sadly another wasted pair, have them against Mario and Bowser and people would be hyping the match. The main question is whether Cloud and Sephiroth can look impressive enough to handle Link after just witnessing him crushing Mega Man and Dr. Wily.

It would be ridiculous to expect a tripling like Link and Ganondorf did. Not only are the Snakes stronger than Mega Man and Dr. Wily, but there will be no SFF in this match. I do feel that Cloud and Sephiroth may perform a bit better than what some people are expecting them to do. I personally have not been impressed with the performance of Solid and Liquid Snake and while you could blame the picture or joke votes on his underperformance against Pac-Man and Blinky there isn’t much of an excuse of their performance against Crono and Lavos.

Either both Crono and Lavos do get some support from rivalry factor or Liquid Snake provides less support than I first thought. I feel Cloud and Sephiroth have a great chance at breaking 60% and they would probably need a performance like that to keep their hopes at defeating Link in the semi-finals.

charmander6000’s Bracket: Cloud Strife/Sephiroth > Solid Snake/Liquid Snake

charmander6000’s Prediction: Cloud Strife/Sephiroth wins, 60.16% - 39.84%
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#290 | red sox 777 | Posted 12/10/2011 7:21:31 PM | message detail
Link: Cloud, this contest has been so incredibly boring. What happened?
Cloud: Well, um, this team idea just hasn't worked very well.
Luigi: Hear, hear! Why did I get stuck with Waluigi?
Mario: I disagree. The reason, my lord, is that you are simply too dominant....uh...my lord.
Everyone: ...................
Link: You DARE to say I am the reason for this disaster of a contest?
Mario: Well, my lord, you haven't lost in years, I mean-
Link: You mean I have never lost ever! 2003 and 2007 are stricken from the history of this empire! They never happened!
Mario: I apologize and repent, my king, I just forgot myself-
Link: Silence. You say that I am too dominant. Well, I'll show you. We're changing the teams. Cloud, instead of having Zack as your partner, your new partner is Sephiroth. Whoever made the bracket put you against Snake again- you face off like every year. Well, I've had enough of watching Snake try to use his stupid little tricks against sheer power. No more. You and Sephiroth can just annihilate him.
Cloud: .....Let's do this.
Link: Then you get to face me. And it will be fun. I will have a challenge at last, after all these years! This contest might just turn around. I'll have fun winning for a change instead of it being so terribly boring.
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2002 Link, 2003 Cloud, 2004 Link, 2005 Link, 2006 Link, 2008 Link, 2010 Link, 2011 Cloud.
Link 6, Cloud 2
#291 | Geiki Ganger | Posted 12/10/2011 8:04:42 PM | message detail
This might be a bit late for this inquiry, but why the hell are the vote totals so low for the contest this year?

I remember contests use to crack the 100,000 mark to ease.

Now even polls with Link don't come close to approaching that total.
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#292 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 12/10/2011 8:16:45 PM | message detail | (edited)
Vote totals are very low because we have way less site traffic compared to a few years ago. This tells the entire story:

http://traffic.alexa.com/graph?&w=800&h=440&o=f&c=1&y=t&b=ffffff&n=666666&r=5y&u=gamefaqs.com

GameFAQs was in the top 200 sites near the end of 2007 and now we have fallen to around 1000. And if you look at this year, site traffic is already starting to die off after the hugely stacked line-up of games for November.

http://traffic.alexa.com/graph?&w=800&h=440&o=f&c=1&y=t&b=ffffff&n=666666&r=1y&u=gamefaqs.com

I would expect another traffic boost around Christmas when 3DS ownership gets a big boost and more people finally get around to receiving one or more of the big-name games that came out this year.
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#293 | FateStayAlbion | Posted 12/10/2011 8:17:46 PM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
#294 | pjbasis | Posted 12/10/2011 8:38:41 PM | message detail
Get ready for a championship performance!
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#295 | abdou | Posted 12/10/2011 8:52:53 PM | message detail
Getting ready for a massive disappointment.
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#296 | red sox 777 | Posted 12/10/2011 8:54:13 PM | message detail
The beginning may be rough, but remember that FFVII will rise and rise later.
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2002 Link, 2003 Cloud, 2004 Link, 2005 Link, 2006 Link, 2008 Link, 2010 Link, 2011 Cloud.
Link 6, Cloud 2
#297 | SnoicFactor | Posted 12/10/2011 8:58:27 PM | message detail
Yeah i expect them to rise like 4% or more.
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#298 | GrapefruitKing | Posted 12/10/2011 9:00:13 PM | message detail
Predix: Cloud will already be at 55% at the freeze and raise a looooot after that
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Oracle Challenge ~ Rank: 16th ~Today's prediction: Aludrac - 53.77%
#299 | Glenn_and_Toad | Posted 12/10/2011 9:00:20 PM | message detail
They could get 66% and I'd still feel quite confident in Link. It's Link.
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Bracket: DEAD (unless Waluigi proves himself as the people's champion) Battle: Still goin'
#300 | Kotetsu534 | Posted 12/10/2011 9:00:29 PM | message detail
Time for a Duel: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sV-gUtdryjI
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