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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1032

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#51 | XIII_rocks | Posted 12/7/2011 9:08:23 PM | message detail
AlecTrevelyan006 posted...
I was so close to betting a testicle with XIII over this match.

I nearly bet all my sigs with bartz, too. I changed my mind tonight and it feels good
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#52 | IngmarBirdman | Posted 12/7/2011 9:08:24 PM | message detail
Pretty comfortable victory here. Samus gonna do the Noble Nine thing where she doesn't really look good, but then as each opponent becomes tougher she doesn't fall off as hard.
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#53 | SHINE GET 64 | Posted 12/7/2011 9:08:35 PM | message detail
#54 | dethfdddddh | Posted 12/7/2011 9:09:16 PM | message detail
Terra/Kefka could have really done some damage with better bracket placement.
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#55 | LeonhartFour | Posted 12/7/2011 9:10:25 PM | message detail
East Division

Pokemon Trainer Red vs. Pokemon Trainer Blue – 50.00%
Ryu vs. Ken Masters – 39.96%
Fox McCloud vs. Wolf O’Donnell – 27.99%
Jim Raynor vs. Sarah Kerrigan – 23.08%
Luigi vs. Waluigi – 22.04%
Yuna vs. Seymour Guado – 21.87%
Cecil Harvey vs. Golbez – 19.71%
Ratchet vs. Dr. Nefarious – 14.68%

Southeast Division

Samus Aran vs. Ridley – 50.00%
Big Boss vs. The Boss – 41.71%
Terra Branford vs. Kefka Palazzo – 39.21%
Chris Redfield vs. Albert Wesker – 36.20%
Tidus vs. Jecht – 33.67%
The Kid vs. The Guy – 19.36%
Vyse vs. Galcian – 16.73%
Dan Hibiki vs. Sagat – 15.05%

The fight between Vyse/Galcian and Dan/Sagat is on! In order for Dan/Sagat to finish higher, the Bosses need at least 46.37% here.
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#56 | charmander6000 | Posted 12/7/2011 9:10:26 PM | message detail
Updated Top 5/10

Top 5 Most Popular 24h Polls
1. Red/Blue vs. Ryu/Ken – Round 3 - 58843
2. Link/Ganondorf vs. Amaterasu/Orochi – Round 2 – 56036
3. Red/Blue vs. Luigi/Waluigi – Round 2 – 54534
4. Mario/Bowser vs. Sonic the Hedgehog/Dr. Robotnik – Round 3 - 53823
5. Cloud Strife/Sephiroth vs. Kratos/Zeus – Round 2 - 52479

Top 5 Most Impressive 24h Losers
1. Sub-Zero/Scorpion – Round 3 - 24462
2. Chell/GlaDOS – Round 2 – 23729
3. Dante/Vergil – Round 2 – 23715
4. Ryu/Ken – Round 3 - 23514
5. Phoenix Wright/Miles Edgeworth – Round 2 - 20976

Top 10 Hardest Matches to Predict
1. Frog/Magus vs. Chell/GlaDOS – Round 2 – 33.41%
2. Alucard/Dracula vs. Phoenix Wright/Miles Edgeworth – Round 2 – 34.09%
3. Mega Man X/Zero vs. Sub-Zero/Scorpion – Round 3 – 34.75%
4. Big Boss/The Boss vs. Chris Redfield/Albert Wesker – Round 2 – 37.29%
5. Red/Blue vs. Ryu/Ken – Round 3 – 44.84%
6. Big Boss/The Boss vs. Tidus/Jecht – Round 1 – 55.06%
7. Phoenix Wright/Miles Edgeworth vs. Gordon Freeman/Dr. Breen – Round 1 – 57.30%
8. Sub-Zero/Scorpion vs. Donkey Kong/King K. Rool - Round 2 – 58.33%
9. Luigi/Waluigi vs. Cecil Harvey/Golbez – Round 1 – 60.19%
10. Sora/Riku vs. Dante/Vergil – Round 2 – 60.66%
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/Rivalry%20BOP.xls
Rivalry Rumble: 65/76 Today: Samus/Ridley
#57 | GrapefruitKing | Posted 12/7/2011 9:10:44 PM | message detail
I can't believe that Terra/Kefka are probably stronger than Frog/Magus
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Oracle Challenge ~ Rank: 18th ~Today's prediction: Samus / Ridley - 54.96%
#58 | LeonhartFour | Posted 12/7/2011 9:11:24 PM | message detail

From: GrapefruitKing | #057
I can't believe that Terra/Kefka are probably stronger than Frog/Magus


That's not surprising. They both looked stronger than Frog in 2010.
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#59 | AlecTrevelyan006 | Posted 12/7/2011 9:11:41 PM | message detail

From: XIII_rocks | #051
AlecTrevelyan006 posted...
I was so close to betting a testicle with XIII over this match.

I nearly bet all my sigs with bartz, too. I changed my mind tonight and it feels good


There you are. Why did you leave the chat?

Would you have taken a testicleb et?
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#60 | charmander6000 | Posted 12/7/2011 9:13:52 PM | message detail | (edited)
Looks like the Bosses will finish with a respectable result.
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/Rivalry%20BOP.xls
Rivalry Rumble: 65/76 Today: Samus/Ridley
#61 | TheCodeisBosco | Posted 12/7/2011 9:12:17 PM | message detail
I still remember when Darth Revan was considered a virtual lock to beat Terra.

Good times!
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#62 | greatone10 | Posted 12/7/2011 9:13:06 PM | message detail

From: LeonhartFour | #055
East Division
The fight between Vyse/Galcian and Dan/Sagat is on! In order for Dan/Sagat to finish higher, the Bosses need at least 46.37% here.


Just for this, I'm voting Samley to help Skies finish above Dan/Sagat.
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#63 | LeonhartFour | Posted 12/7/2011 9:13:14 PM | message detail

From: TheCodeisBosco | #061
I still remember when Darth Revan was considered a virtual lock to beat Terra.

Good times!


If we had any idea Dissidia would actually help FFVI, I doubt it would've been quite so one-sided.
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#64 | pjbasis | Posted 12/7/2011 9:13:40 PM | message detail
#65 | SnoicFactor | Posted 12/7/2011 9:13:48 PM | message detail
Lol @ bosss rising in the nintendo power hour. trainer destruction.
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#66 | XIII_rocks | Posted 12/7/2011 9:14:10 PM | message detail
AlecTrevelyan006 posted...
From: XIII_rocks | #051
AlecTrevelyan006 posted...
I was so close to betting a testicle with XIII over this match.

I nearly bet all my sigs with bartz, too. I changed my mind tonight and it feels good
There you are. Why did you leave the chat?

Would you have taken a testicleb et?


I probably would have done. Phew. Glad I saw sense.
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#67 | jkmill550 | Posted 12/7/2011 9:14:10 PM | message detail
Pokemon Trainer Red vs. Pokemon Trainer Blue – 50.00%
Ryu vs. Ken Masters – 39.96%
Fox McCloud vs. Wolf O’Donnell – 27.99%
Jim Raynor vs. Sarah Kerrigan – 23.08%
Luigi vs. Waluigi – 22.04%
Yuna vs. Seymour Guado – 21.87%
Cecil Harvey vs. Golbez – 19.71%
Ratchet vs. Dr. Nefarious – 14.68%

o_O more like Raynor/Kerrigan could have done some damage with better placement!
#68 | PartOfYourWorld | Posted 12/7/2011 9:14:37 PM | message detail
Terra/Kefka even had a great shot at Dante/Vergil.

Six years later: BRANFORD'S REVENGE
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#69 | LeonhartFour | Posted 12/7/2011 9:14:48 PM | message detail
Just remember, Samus doesn't have traditional Nintendo character trends. Other than her ridiculous early vote, she's pretty well balanced across every other timeframe.
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#70 | LeonhartFour | Posted 12/7/2011 9:15:06 PM | message detail

From: PartOfYourWorld | #068
Terra/Kefka even had a great shot at Dante/Vergil.

Six years later: BRANFORD'S REVENGE


Somewhere, RPGuy is shedding a tear of joy.
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#71 | WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 12/7/2011 9:15:26 PM | message detail
PartOfYourWorld posted...
Terra/Kefka even had a great shot at Dante/Vergil.

Six years later: BRANFORD'S REVENGE


I believe you mean Terra/Kefka had a great shot at Crono/Lavos.

I WOULD HAVE BEEN RIGHT IN 2005!
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#72 | charmander6000 | Posted 12/7/2011 9:15:42 PM | message detail
Other than her ridiculous early vote, she's pretty well balanced across every other timeframe.

Except during the dead zone. Bosses will be making some cuts I bet.
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/Rivalry%20BOP.xls
Rivalry Rumble: 65/76 Today: Samus/Ridley
#73 | Big Bob | Posted 12/7/2011 9:16:11 PM | message detail
Are we all taking Kerrigan to beat Yuna? Or are the Trainers getting stronger?
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#74 | LeonhartFour | Posted 12/7/2011 9:16:18 PM | message detail
Well, the Bosses will make cuts because that's when they're stronger than usual, not because Samus is particularly horrendous.
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#75 | PartOfYourWorld | Posted 12/7/2011 9:16:30 PM | message detail
Ryu/Ken managed two cuts during the dead vote, and they were battling from the high 30s. Bosses will be making lots of cuts.
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#76 | WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 12/7/2011 9:16:33 PM | message detail
More like Bosses won the board vote, m i rite? Samus for 70% confirmed.
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#77 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 12/7/2011 9:16:46 PM | message detail
Samus's night vote is very terrible and she's got the worst night vote out of any Nintendo character.
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#78 | TheCodeisBosco | Posted 12/7/2011 9:16:48 PM | message detail
LeonhartFour posted...
From: TheCodeisBosco | #061
I still remember when Darth Revan was considered a virtual lock to beat Terra.

Good times!
If we had any idea Dissidia would actually help FFVI, I doubt it would've been quite so one-sided.


Yeah, the Dissidia boost really was quite a shock. Not often that you see a portable game have such an impact.
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#79 | WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 12/7/2011 9:17:49 PM | message detail
Big Bob posted...
Are we all taking Kerrigan to beat Yuna? Or are the Trainers getting stronger?

Given that Tidus/Jecht look real bad, and Yuna/Seymour lost to Banjo/Grunty in the vote-ins, Raynor/Kerrigan beating Yuna/Seymour wouldn't shock me.
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#80 | Team Rocket Elite (Moderator) | Posted 12/7/2011 9:19:13 PM | message detail
Score-Brackets-% Right
72------201--------88.06
71------91----------34.07
70------266--------9.02
69------60----------31.67
68------84----------42.86
67------114--------42.98
66------163--------58.28
65------193--------55.44
64------241--------56.85
63------313--------51.44
62------409--------56.23
61------475--------57.26
60------548--------55.11
59------650--------53.69
58------686--------51.60
57------704--------50.43
56------721--------47.16
55------785--------49.68
54------746--------46.38
53------763--------46.40
52------734--------45.91
51------712--------42.13
50------655--------43.51
49------644--------43.32
48------549--------42.81
47------543--------42.91
46------477--------39.62
45------418--------38.04
44------356--------36.52
43------325--------37.85
42------304--------31.25
41------233--------42.06
40------177--------30.51
39------169--------32.54
38------160--------27.50
37------142--------30.99
36------122--------31.15
35------90----------22.22
34------75----------22.67
33------73----------30.14
32------56----------25.00
31------39----------35.90
30------40----------22.50
29------36----------16.67
28------28----------32.14
27------19----------36.84
26------28----------28.57
25------11----------27.27
24------10----------20.00
23------9------------44.44
22------9------------33.33

20------2------------50.00
19------7------------57.14
18------4------------25.00

11------5------------40.00

8--------1------------100.00

4--------2------------50.00

The casual bracket makers apparently thought this match was fairly obvious while the Gurus struggled with it. Discounting alts, 33% of the perfects, about 50% of the -1s and about 36% of the -2s got the match right. After the -3s who are in the low 30s, the prediction percentage actually starts going up as you go down the tiers and rises into the mid-50s. This was one of this matches where prior contest knowledge was working against you. After peaking at -11 (61 points) prediction percentage starts to fade once again.

33 people fell off the Top 50. Former second place Xuxon, former third place LeonhartFour, former fourth place ALAKA, former fifth place Falcon120, BlackMetalex, kneazlegirl, KadenceInc, foxhead84, Awesome_X, InvisibleOmega, Dragon66116, gedgieno11, LOLContests, Greyfeld, cyanlce, SuperSmash44, DantheSage, markwlin, Haste_2, stephyk, transience, Sorozone, Arkayo, ooBlack_Roseoo, HeroicShadow, tigger93, EdmundExley, VDontheLadyYo, Safer_777, KanzarisKelshen, Camden409, startme_up and dimi161 did not have Pokemon Trainer Red vs. Blue winning the match.
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#81 | AlecTrevelyan006 | Posted 12/7/2011 9:20:48 PM | message detail
My Awesome_X alt fell off the leaderboard to make way for Acid enema. Figures.

Well, while I enjoy a good testicle bet victory, it would somewhat demean it by having it on a match like this the day after Trainers/Fighters. It was probably for the best.
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#82 | LeonhartFour | Posted 12/7/2011 9:21:10 PM | message detail

From: -LusterSoldier- | #077
Samus's night vote is very terrible and she's got the worst night vote out of any Nintendo character.


Not really.

She drops a lot after the first hour because she's so ridiculously frontloaded, sure, but she's pretty balanced in everything from the first night vote to the end of the match. She doesn't have a lot of variance in her trends other than the fantastic early vote.
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#83 | LeonhartFour | Posted 12/7/2011 9:21:47 PM | message detail

From: Team Rocket Elite | #080
former third place LeonhartFour


Rub it in, TRE.

Rub it in.
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#84 | charmander6000 | Posted 12/7/2011 9:21:52 PM | message detail
That was only a 20 vote gain there
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/Rivalry%20BOP.xls
Rivalry Rumble: 65/76 Today: Samus/Ridley
#85 | LeonhartFour | Posted 12/7/2011 9:22:23 PM | message detail
#86 | ExThaNemesis | Posted 12/7/2011 9:26:14 PM | message detail

From: XIII_rocks | #048
ExThaNemesis posted...
50 ExThaNemesis 74 Link vs. Ganondorf

Hell yeah!


50 XIII_rocks 132600 132600

^5! We're like the 50 club!


Nifty 50's, IMO!
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#87 | PartOfYourWorld | Posted 12/7/2011 9:26:30 PM | message detail
Eh, this is a good sign for Link and a bad one for Cloud (if you want to read a lot into it). Samus/Ridley isn't well regarded or even iconic, and that will be apparent next round. Yet, they're winning easily over a much more legit, much more NOT NINTENDO rivalry.
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#88 | UltimaterializerX | Posted 12/7/2011 9:27:44 PM | message detail

From: LOLContests | #044
Wait, was I the only perfect Battle to bank?

I guess so.


Aw, man :(

Sorry dude
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#89 | charmander6000 | Posted 12/7/2011 9:28:08 PM | message detail
strength has something to do with it. Rivalry factor can only do so much.

At least Cloud and Sephiroth could outstrength Link and Ganondorf
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/Rivalry%20BOP.xls
Rivalry Rumble: 65/76 Today: Samus/Ridley
#90 | PartOfYourWorld | Posted 12/7/2011 9:28:48 PM | message detail
Anyway, counting this one, there are 12 matches to go. Assuming we get zero "current" upsets (like Frog over Alucard), how many of the 71 perfect battlers do you expect to run the table? If it's more than 50, I unfortunately won't see the Battle leaderboard despite having (hopefully) gone perfect throughout the whole thing.
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#91 | IngmarBirdman | Posted 12/7/2011 9:28:51 PM | message detail
lol Bosses > Fighters

Unlikely to be the case if Samus loses to Trainers. Ryu's value remains the same while everyone in Samus division drops.
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#92 | ZackFAQs | Posted 12/7/2011 9:29:02 PM | message detail

From: TheCodeisBosco | #078
Yeah, the Dissidia boost really was quite a shock. Not often that you see a portable game have such an impact.


You rang?
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#93 | -Tofa7- | Posted 12/7/2011 9:29:42 PM | message detail
I've got the feeling the casuals who are still perfect in the battle challenge are visiting board 8 each day to find out who the favorite is. This is just getting ridiculous. I hope there's an upset and 99% of you get wiped.
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#94 | LOLContests | Posted 12/7/2011 9:31:17 PM | message detail

Aw, man :(

Sorry dude


Hey, don't feel sorry. I want to be alone here. My tiebreaker's too high, so an upset wiping out the perfects is the only way I can get a prize (short of picking an upset I don't believe.) so I had to bank to get some kind of edge. The less people with me, the better.
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#95 | charmander6000 | Posted 12/7/2011 9:31:23 PM | message detail
Just looking at the top 50 I recognize a lot of people from board 8.
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/Rivalry%20BOP.xls
Rivalry Rumble: 65/76 Today: Samus/Ridley
#96 | PartOfYourWorld | Posted 12/7/2011 9:32:41 PM | message detail

From: -Tofa7- | #093
I hope there's an upset and 99% of you get wiped.


You mean you hope Frog wins, although that won't wipe out 99% of em (maybe like 90%). Anyway, don't get mad at the predictors for going with the favorites. Blame the contest itself for being so predictable.
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#97 | ZackFAQs | Posted 12/7/2011 9:32:52 PM | message detail
Battle Challenge is one big hivemind right now. If Frog/Magus somehow beat Alucard/Dracula in a couple days, 90-95% of that leaderboard will be erased.
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#98 | XIII_rocks | Posted 12/7/2011 9:35:45 PM | message detail
charmander6000 posted...
Just looking at the top 50 I recognize a lot of people from board 8.

Including me! YEAH no leaderboard for 7 years, then twice in one contest!

Also Ex I am all over nifty fifties. You should rejoin UCA and that can be our tagteam name.

Yo: I'm guessing 40 min, though you might see people with crappy tiebreakers making crazy upset picks to try and get ahead, so maybe less. I, on the other hand, am on the hunt for glorious perfection.
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#99 | PartOfYourWorld | Posted 12/7/2011 9:36:22 PM | message detail
We are a hivemind, but I'd like to hear some arguments for Frog/Magus to sway me. CT has done nothing but disappoint since 2009, and I dropped the ball by taking Frog/Magus in my bracket. I wouldn't have done it had I not played the game a few months prior.

Totally worth it, though.
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#100 | LeonhartFour | Posted 12/7/2011 9:36:44 PM | message detail
Man, these updates are all over the place right now.
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