GameFAQs Contests
Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1029
Oh hey, it's Leon4 right on schedule! So did you almost win the most recent Gamespot contest with blind luck or COLD CALCULATING LOGIC? --- `·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.~*ST*~.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.· http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v198/Burgess/1279169521588.png |
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That was my first contest. I had Final Fantasy 1 winning the whole thing. A more innocent time. --- Black Turtle did a pretty good job. |
When
I say logic, I don't mean X-Stats. There's other forms of logic that
exist besides them. SFF, Pic Factor, 4th Place Factor, LFF. These are
all factors that disrupt X-Stats, but are still logical. Mario > Samus was not what the X-Stats said, but there was a logical process behind it that anyone who follows the contests could have proposed. That's what I'm talking about. Ganondorf > Samus was a mistake which a lot of brackets made, but which could have been avoided had they been more familiar with the contests, and thought things through logically. --- "What's wrong with bootblacking? We like it very much!" This is Yesmar. |
From: UltimaterializerX | #151 COLD CALCULATING LOGIC IN 4CHAN TRENDS --- http://img600.imageshack.us/img600/8718/leonflowchart.png |
And
yeah, what Ulti said is what I was getting at. To a degree, logic
helps. We can accurately predict 95% of matches, after all. If you want
to get the debatable ones right? If you want to choose whichever entrant
happens to make a deep run? Luck. --- Black Turtle did a pretty good job. |
So did you almost win the most recent Gamespot contest with blind luck or COLD CALCULATING LOGIC? Leon almost won the Gamespot contest because he assumed there would be a rally based on previous Gamespot results. That's clearly logic. --- "What's wrong with bootblacking? We like it very much!" This is Yesmar. |
Hey
Ulti, how come you didn't try to get lucky by taking Arthas over Link?
It's almost like you KNEW SOMETHING that hinted at Link winning that
match. Good god what could it have been? From: charmander6000 | #145 I also take issue with the "no doubt" here. No doubt, really? Mario actually walked the walk against Cloud in 2002, while Samus failed against a (presumably weaker) Sephiroth. Yes, Mario got dicked by Seph one year later, but Samus was lucky to avoid the 2003 Cloud/Seph buzz saw. In 2004, she put up 41% on Cloud in what was a better year for Nintendo. I see little reason to assume Mario would have been incapable of such a performance. Sure, she could have been indirectly stronger. I'll even grant you "probably was" (or at least, probably was until you throw her into a huge match), but "no doubt" is silly. --- Yoblazer: http://8board.webs.com/ariel.jpg Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world! |
Wii_TuRtLe posted... Nothing 4 has ever done makes me think it would get within 10% of FF6 straight up. And 6 is top 15, if not top 10 still. http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1652 http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3496 FF3/6's still respectable as long as you aren't comparing it to its former self, but 45.54% on LoZ:LttP when SM and LoZ:LA share the poll isn't a top ten-performance...especially when LoZ:LA could get this on FF3/6: http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3456 http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3483 I really doubt that's a top fifteen-performance, too. --- http://img812.imageshack.us/img812/3492/eponaharr.jpg Nominate E P O N A. |
I
think some people are acting like luck and logic are mutually
exclusive. They aren't. To get lucky, you have to put yourself in a good
position for it to even matter. Let's use an example from sports. When a team wins the Super Bowl, do they get there through skill or luck? Both. The majority of it is skill because a bad team isn't going to win a championship through getting lucky the entire way. But EVERY championship team gets some lucky breaks somewhere along the way to the championship. It's as simple as that. --- "I can set you free, mate." "My freedom was forfeit long ago!" |
Has
Yesmar ever actually won a prize with this wonderful logic strategy of
his? I'm too lazy to check all the leaderboards, but I'm guessing no. I actually finished in the Top 5 of the most recent Games Contest. --- "What's wrong with bootblacking? We like it very much!" This is Yesmar. |
From: PartOfYourWorld | #157 I see little reason to assume he would based on matches with Crono and Link that same year unless you just want to say "It's friggin' Mario, of course he'd match Samus." Or you want to say any strong Nintendo character could've put up 41% on Cloud or something. The latter would be considered logical. The former isn't really logical. --- http://i43.tinypic.com/dgwh0.gif http://www.majhost.com/gallery/atukam/OHWD/snownd.gif |
From: KamikazePotato | #155 And this is why logic and knowledge matters a whole hell of a lot more than luck. If these contests were primarily luck-based, then you may as well take the bracket of someone who knows zero about video games versus a B8er's bracket. Think of it this way: before every contest, the taste of the entire site is shifted at random to make one video game entity the most popular around. It could be Zelda, Kingdom Hearts, King of Fighters, Madden, whatever. It's always shifting and always random. NOW we have luck-based contests. --- Yoblazer: http://i43.tinypic.com/25z1non.jpg Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world! |
From: PartOfYourWorld | #162 Nobody is saying these contests are primary luck-based. Nobody. That 5% that isn't logical is what wins contests. --- http://i.minus.com/iH9vIGOBoyTQ2.gif |
From: KamikazePotato | #049 --- Yoblazer: http://i33.tinypic.com/ml36gl_th.gif Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world! |
And yet you're trying to debunk this idea that luck matters by using silly examples like Link/Ganon vs. Arthas/Illidian. In a match between two characters who are virtually equal, do you get the match right because you're logical or because you're lucky? A little bit of both. If you picked Master Chief > Frog in 2004, your pick was a logical one, but you obviously got unlucky. If you picked Frog > Master Chief, your pick was a logical one, but you obviously got lucky. --- http://img38.imageshack.us/img38/7760/222bj.jpg |
Contest Luck and Discussion - Part 1 --- http://img812.imageshack.us/img812/3492/eponaharr.jpg Nominate E P O N A. |
Of
course luck matters. I'm not saying and will never say that it doesn't
(I'm the last guy here who'd ever try to hype this up about being "all
skill"). Luck, however, is insignificant in the face of past knowledge.
People are saying that "luck gives you the winning bracket." No, luck helps
give you the winning bracket. Know what helps way, way, way more? The
actual knowledge that guys like Link and Cloud are strong and will win a
ton of matches. Even in the most extreme cases where the actual contest
winner comes outta left field (L-Block), luck alone isn't enough. A guy
picking matches at random who just happened to give L-Block the win
still wouldn't have won, because we had a very clever predictor who
picked L-Block to win and KNEW that Link was strong enough to finish
second. --- Yoblazer: http://i33.tinypic.com/ml36gl_th.gif Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world! |
I was referring to debatable/unexpected stuff. Why are even we even discussing 90% Link blowouts? --- Black Turtle did a pretty good job. |
Because
if luck was king, we'd rarely see those Link blowouts coming, and a 90%
win over Aiai one year could be a loss against Ryo Hazuki the next. You
want a luck bracket? Have an old Congolese woman who has never watched
TV make the predictions. --- Yoblazer: http://oi53.tinypic.com/2hd0dh1.jpg Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world! |
From: PartOfYourWorld | #167 But most people who predict these contests and have a realistic chance at winning already know that. That doesn't give you a leg up over people who have a legit shot at prizes. Knowing Squall is stronger than Nightmare doesn't give you a shot at prizes because 3/4 of the people who predict these contests already know that. What makes the difference between a great bracket and a prize-winning bracket is getting lucky in those debated matches where stats and logic alone aren't enough to say for sure who wins. --- http://i.imgur.com/CbfFb.jpg |
From: LOLContests | #153 This actually makes way more sense than what I originally thought you meant, but it still doesn't change that if your argument held up, Board 8 would win every contest. As-is, we've won what, twice? --- Could this be the end? Is this the way I die? Sitting here alone, no one by my side? |
From: PartOfYourWorld | #169 You're totally misunderstanding what most of us seem to be saying when we're talking about luck, I feel like. None of us are saying anything remotely comparable to this. --- http://img38.imageshack.us/img38/7760/222bj.jpg |
From: LOLContests | #160 I am defeated --- "I wrote a sixteen page essay about why DAO is bad, but I had nowhere to post it so it's sitting on my desktop." -Anagram |
From: PartOfYourWorld | #169 This guy actually won User of the Year over <http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/61107415>; --- `·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.~*ST*~.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.· These lunatics deny the truth. |
A Board 8 member has only won twice? What does it take to be a B8 member anyway? --- http://i498.photobucket.com/albums/rr345/Rakaputra/pjbasis.png |
This
actually makes way more sense than what I originally thought you meant,
but it still doesn't change that if your argument held up, Board 8
would win every contest. As-is, we've won what, twice? They might not be common posters, but I would bet most people that have won lurked on the board to some degree. Even people that don't are probably at least familiar with the contests. You don't need the board to know all the previous results. --- "What's wrong with bootblacking? We like it very much!" This is Yesmar. |
From: LeonhartFour | #172 Seems like the majority are trying to discredit "basic" contest knowledge simply because almost everyone here has it. Just because it's a given can still mean it's the most important factor in winning. And yes, maybe I am seeing things differently. For me, even predicting a close match correctly isn't all about luck - not when you used knowledge and rationale to make that prediction. Last year, for example, Justin Crossing took some Vesperia game to win over Disgaea and said he did it because the game "sold like 500,000 more copies AFTER its disappointing GotY voting polls." That knowledge blew my mind. Blew my ****ing mind, and I immediately thought he had earned the hell out of his prediction. Was luck a part of that? Sure, a big part. But even in a case like that, I'd argue it isn't the only part. --- Yoblazer: http://i32.tinypic.com/zlf1w7.gif Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world! |
You guys are just disagreeing about how far out to look when you consider luck. First off, luck and skill are not replacements for each other. You do not and CANNOT forfeit any luck by attempting to use skill. It's literally impossible, by definition. You may get lucky by intentionally being unskillful, but you would have an equal chance of gettting lucky by being skillful. That's why luck is luck. It's uncontrollable random chance, meaning this is nothing you can do about no matter what. What is skill? Skill is whatever increases your probability of winning. So that could be: 1. Whatever maximizes your expected number of points. 2. Whatever maximizes your probability of winning the contest. A lot of people seem to be implying that going for #2 is using luck, but in fact, this is skill. You cannot use luck because luck is uncontrollable. To the extent that you are trying to align the probabilities in your favor- that is skill. --- 2002 Link, 2003 Cloud, 2004 Link, 2005 Link, 2006 Link, 2008 Link, 2010 Link, 2011 Cloud. Link 6, Cloud 2 |
But virtually none of us are arguing luck is the only part. Most luck is rooted in logic. I picked Squall > Magus in 2005, and I had a lot of logic to back it up. But my logic actually had to turn out to be true for it to even matter, and that requires a little bit of luck because my logic behind Magus being overrated was a bit circumstantial. But if someone picked Master Chief > Frog in 2004 and that was the only match they got wrong, they lost the contest because the contest winner's only mistake was a first round 1-point match. --- http://i.minus.com/iH9vIGOBoyTQ2.gif |
From: red sox 777 | #178 I don't make upset picks because they give me a better chance of winning the contest than picking chalk. I make upset picks because I believe they're possible, but they're upsets for a reason. Something has to go against what's expected for you to get it right, and most of the time, the reason a certain result is expected is rooted in logic and contest knowledge. --- "Why must we always choose between certain death and probable death?" "I'm in an epic battle to the death, FIGURE IT OUT YOURSELF!" |
From: red sox 777 | #178 Also, I disagree that the unskillful have an equal chance of benefiting from luck as much as the skillful. Being skillful often puts you in more of those situations than being unskillful does. --- "So cold. I am always by your side." "There ain't no gettin' off of this train we on!" |
Also,
it's a matter of sample size. Any close single match is going to be
more luck than skill. By the time we get to a whole contest, it's
probably the other way around. There's like 200 people predicting on
this board, compared to 40,000 (well, not nearly as many now, but you
get the picture) site-wide. Given those numbers, if bracketmaking was
about luck, we are extremely lucky to have even 1, much less 2, winners.
Based on luck, it should take us around 100 years to get our first
winner. --- 2002 Link, 2003 Cloud, 2004 Link, 2005 Link, 2006 Link, 2008 Link, 2010 Link, 2011 Cloud. Link 6, Cloud 2 |
Also,
I disagree that the unskillful have an equal chance of benefiting from
luck as much as the skillful. Being skillful often puts you in more of
those situations than being unskillful does. Being skillful puts you in more situations where you win. Because you are being skillful. Not because you are changing your luck. --- 2002 Link, 2003 Cloud, 2004 Link, 2005 Link, 2006 Link, 2008 Link, 2010 Link, 2011 Cloud. Link 6, Cloud 2 |
Being
skillful puts you in more situations where luck actually matters, I
suppose would be a better way of saying it. It doesn't matter if you
pick Missingno > Crono and Yoshi but losing to Sephiroth if the rest
of your bracket is a mess. --- http://img710.imageshack.us/img710/8516/whatisdesiresig.gif |
I
don't make upset picks because they give me a better chance of winning
the contest than picking chalk. I make upset picks because I believe
they're possible, but they're upsets for a reason. Something has to go
against what's expected for you to get it right, and most of the time,
the reason a certain result is expected is rooted in logic and contest
knowledge. I'm confused. Are you saying that you pick upsets that you believe are unlikely to happen, that you don't think increase your chance of winning? If so, why make such picks? I'm not talking about what the board or topic expects to happen, but what you honestly expect to happen. Because that's what matters when making your own bracket. --- 2002 Link, 2003 Cloud, 2004 Link, 2005 Link, 2006 Link, 2008 Link, 2010 Link, 2011 Cloud. Link 6, Cloud 2 |
From: red sox 777 | #185 No, I'm saying my reasoning for picking upsets isn't "Hey if I pick this it increases my chances of winning because it's an upset." I don't pick upsets for the sake of picking upsets. --- http://i.imgur.com/fe05x.png http://i.imgur.com/stNJf.png |
Luck
is important in really close matches, too. The ridiculous number of
matches I got right by a handful of votes in 2004 was nuts. Or, heck, even matches decided by only a few hundred are luck. Run that Portal/CT poll we just had 100 times and I'm sure Portal could win a few of them. --- ·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.~*ST*~.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.· You're not gonna reach my telephone. |
That
would fall under maximizing points then. But in that case, it's not an
upset to you, even if it is to everyone else. Insofar as you actually
believe it to be the more likely result. So there's no difference from a
normal pick. --- 2002 Link, 2003 Cloud, 2004 Link, 2005 Link, 2006 Link, 2008 Link, 2010 Link, 2011 Cloud. Link 6, Cloud 2 |
I
don't even pick it because it's the more likely result. Sometimes I do,
but not always. It's not much of a risk if I only pick stuff that I
think is the more likely result even if it's different from what the
board thinks. Sonic beating Crono in 2006 wasn't the "likely" result based on every contest we'd ever had up to that point, but I believed it was possible and it would pay off if it did happen. --- http://i43.tinypic.com/dgwh0.gif http://www.majhost.com/gallery/atukam/OHWD/snownd.gif |
We've had at least 3 winners come from B8. Me, Ulti, and Palmer/Dr. Football (lol fun entry). --- Thank you, Eddie Guerrero. http://img.imgcake.com/Icon/Punkjpguh.jpg |
I
think I'm the best one to comment on "luck" in this topic considering I
got a top 10 finish in 2007 and I'm historically one of the "worst"
contest predictors And what I have to say is both sides are kinda right, really. There's a mix of luck and logic to winning contests, but the luck we're talking about in this topic isn't the type to just be discarded as mere luck. It's not luck to say that Mario would easily beat Samus due to SFF-- that's a correct call. The match wasn't close and there was actually a reason for saying it wouldn't be close. You can claim she'd have beaten Mario in 2002-2004 and the only reason she didn't is because there was a big Nintendo boost in 2005, but until someone invents a time machine and holds Samus in 2003 and finds Samus did in fact win the easier explanation is that you were wrong. Suck it up. As someone who knows plenty about being wrong often, that's just something you accept. However the matches that are say 52-48 or closer and there are good arguments for both sides? That's luck, even if you thought the match was going to be 65-35 because you're crazy or because that's what evidence said or whatever. But you can easily get unlucky in those matches too. Alternatively, if you stumble on the winner in a match but it's obviously for entirely the wrong reason and your percent is way off (say, taking L-Block to win 2007 because of Tetris fans), you could argue that's luck too. But if you call a result for a reason (and it's not obviously the wrong one) and get it in the general percentage area and it's not that close? Upset or not, that's not luck, that's making the right call, and it should be given its just due. --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
From: HaRRicH | #158 What was wrong with those matches? Name me 15 games that would beat FF6 straight up. --- Game of the decade? More like Guru of the decade mirite? |
Lopen has arrived to be a voice of reason what has become of the stats topic for such a thing to occur --- http://i.minus.com/iH9vIGOBoyTQ2.gif |
Mario/Samus
of course. It happens every time that match is discussed. Plus, Lopen
was the only one daring enough in the Oracle to actually pick Mario to
get the 60/40, so I'd say he was dead on right about that match. It's
worse than Brawl because I think the Brawl side has learned to just
ignore all the vituperation we throw at it every time it is mentioned. --- 2002 Link, 2003 Cloud, 2004 Link, 2005 Link, 2006 Link, 2008 Link, 2010 Link, 2011 Cloud. Link 6, Cloud 2 |
The Brawl side realized that people didn't hate it as much as the people who hate Brawl thought. But if you picked Brawl, you still got a little lucky because there was no real data suggesting either game was stronger. --- http://i52.tinypic.com/2zfiu09.gif http://i54.tinypic.com/10729w2.gif |
Brawl
vs Melee was too close to not be a luck pick anyway. That result could
flip next contest really easy and I wouldn't bat an eye. But yeah that's pretty much the main reason I chipped in. I don't like me calling Samus/Mario to be a stomp, having that happen, then for people to say it's luck. 60-40s just aren't luck I don't think. That was one of my shining moments and that and Master Chief 2007 are probably the only reasons I'm not discarded as a totally bogus nut at this point. I had DIAGRAMS and crap, man. But I certainly do think luck matters quite a bit. Even this contest that has been dominated by the guru cookie is one I'd say has had some lucky matches-- yesterday being one of the prime examples! I'd also say that GLaDOS/Magus was luck too though. And then the people who just happened to get Sub-Zero/Leon or some other matches right but thought it'd be close-- that's luck. Basically luck's involved in all the matches that either A. Are close, or B. You think will be close. Contest has had little of the former, a bit more of the latter, but there's still some luck here! --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
I think I need to repeat, it takes skill to get a decent bracket, but it takes a bit of luck to win the contest. But if you picked Brawl, you still got a little lucky because there was no real data suggesting either game was stronger. Just looking around the internet you could tell Brawl was the more prefered game by the casuals. Of course I still acknowledge that outside of smash fan sites Melee probably had the best chance at winning on GameFAQs due to having more hardcore fans. --- BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/Rivalry%20BOP.xls Rivalry Rumble: 57/64 Today: Mario/Bowser |
Melee would have won a 24 hour match it was winning the U.S. and Canada. --- Starcraft is my life, so without it I wouldn't exist. - Artosis |
It takes a bit of luck to win the contest, yeah, but every upset that pans out isn't luck, either. In 2005 the "luck" involved isn't in calling Mario/Samus right (unless you were picking it as an upset or thought it'd be close). There's more luck in calling Snake > Bowser, Crono > Mega Man, or the dozens of low point close ones, there. --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
Melee would have won a 24 hour match it was winning the U.S. and Canada. Kingdom Hearts is going to win the ASV because it has 52% in the US http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=4172®ion=US US had something around 53% for Melee before the morning rose. --- BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/Rivalry%20BOP.xls Rivalry Rumble: 57/64 Today: Mario/Bowser |
