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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1028

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#351 | red sox 777 | Posted 12/4/2011 1:20:18 PM | message detail
Huh, Dante's cut 60 votes off the lead. Well, if he can actually mount an attempt at a comeback, then this would be close!
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#352 | HaRRicH | Posted 12/4/2011 1:20:44 PM | message detail
I'll call anything within 1,000 votes or 51-49 close...maybe a few other exceptions outside of that too, depending on the circumstances. Maybe they're not barnburner-close like From/MC, but they're still significantly more even than the majority of matches we see.

Today's match is close, both by my above idea of what's "close" and in context to the rest of the contest -- there's currently no closer example to compare, nor is there another match that had a lead-change during it.
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#353 | ZFS | Posted 12/4/2011 1:21:12 PM | message detail
red sox has a different perspective of these contests from pretty much everyone else, so it's understandable when you don't understand where he gets his ideas from!

By any metric, this is a close match. Saying otherwise is nonsense.
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#354 | The_Djoker | Posted 12/4/2011 1:22:27 PM | message detail
#355 | The_Djoker | Posted 12/4/2011 1:23:57 PM | message detail
If Dante comes back and wins this then this contest is officially Awesome. Otherwise it's still turd.
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#356 | PartOfYourWorld | Posted 12/4/2011 1:24:22 PM | message detail
Europe is still awake and voting. Give it a couple hours.

I don't think we've discussed this match in terms of strength, but I think it's more likely KH weakness keeping this close than Dante's strength. The other "Dante-esque" entrants like Kratos and Ezio have looked poor, and even with a more legit villain, I don't expect Dante to buck that trend. I think a team like Chris/Wesker could have possibly thrown a wrench in this fourpack.
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#357 | KamikazePotato | Posted 12/4/2011 1:26:49 PM | message detail
I would take both of these entrants over BB/The Boss.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#358 | GrapefruitKing | Posted 12/4/2011 1:27:46 PM | message detail
Dante has had an average of 53% over the past half-hour
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#359 | White_Tiger | Posted 12/4/2011 1:28:15 PM | message detail
Neither Kratos nor Ezio are on Dante's level
#360 | The_Djoker | Posted 12/4/2011 1:29:13 PM | message detail
#361 | abdou | Posted 12/4/2011 1:29:21 PM | message detail
Dante not giving up. Man I would be glad to lose my perfect battle bracket if Dante can still win this
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#362 | red sox 777 | Posted 12/4/2011 1:30:57 PM | message detail
Screw pre-votal collapse trends, let's do this comeback.
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#363 | The_Djoker | Posted 12/4/2011 1:31:34 PM | message detail
So does KH win the next match? BEcause i have no idea what to expect from Squall Siefer.
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#364 | Azp2k32 | Posted 12/4/2011 1:34:17 PM | message detail
The_Djoker posted...
So does KH win the next match? BEcause i have no idea what to expect from Squall Siefer.

The KH duo is getting destroyed next match, guaranteed.
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#365 | PartOfYourWorld | Posted 12/4/2011 1:34:20 PM | message detail

From: KamikazePotato | #357
I would take both of these entrants over BB/The Boss.


lol really

I was about to post "would anyone take either of these teams over The Bosses?"

Dante/Vergil hold little, if any, advantage over Bosses. Big Boss is at least on Dante's level if not above it. The Boss should be at least around Vergil's level if not above it. MGS3 crushes any DMC game. DMC duo would need some serious melty bosses picture advantage for me to consider their chances. I'd take Chris/Wesker over Dante before I take him over a rivalry of The Bosses' caliber.
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#366 | JJH777 | Posted 12/4/2011 1:36:03 PM | message detail
How badly does Sora beat Tidus?
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#367 | The_Djoker | Posted 12/4/2011 1:37:54 PM | message detail
The bosses would do A LOT better in Europe against KH, So yes i'd take Bosses over both.
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#368 | KamikazePotato | Posted 12/4/2011 1:38:07 PM | message detail
Big Boss is at least on Dante's level if not above it.

Dante would 57-43 BB.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#369 | abdou | Posted 12/4/2011 1:38:45 PM | message detail
JJH777 posted...
How badly does Sora beat Tidus?

Very very badly
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#370 | The_Djoker | Posted 12/4/2011 1:41:19 PM | message detail

From: KamikazePotato | #368
Big Boss is at least on Dante's level if not above it.

Dante would 57-43 BB.


yeah i'd agree on that, Big boss on his own isn't very strong but MGS3 >>>>Any DMC game. So this particular rivalry would be stronger imo.
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#371 | PartOfYourWorld | Posted 12/4/2011 1:42:24 PM | message detail

From: KamikazePotato | #368
Dante would 57-43 BB.


That's a real tall order considering Ryu fell short of 57% on sprite art Leon Kennedy.
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#372 | The_Djoker | Posted 12/4/2011 1:50:12 PM | message detail

From: abdou | #369
Very very badly


I wonder how strong Tidus could have been if he was a Cloud Clone.
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#373 | swirIdude | Posted 12/4/2011 1:56:06 PM | message detail

From: The_Djoker | #372
I wonder how strong Tidus could have been if he was a Cloud Clone.


Anyone willing to take Zack Fair over Tidus?
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#374 | Kotetsu534 | Posted 12/4/2011 1:57:20 PM | message detail
Zack would easily beat Tidus. Personally I'd like to see Tidus vs. Yuna (picking Yuna!).
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#375 | GrapefruitKing | Posted 12/4/2011 1:59:09 PM | message detail
Zack Fair vs. Big Boss

who ya got
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#376 | ffmasterjose | Posted 12/4/2011 2:01:17 PM | message detail
Big Boss. Especially with a good Naked Snake picture.
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#377 | GrapefruitKing | Posted 12/4/2011 2:04:40 PM | message detail
let's say it's a good Naked Snake picture vs. a good black-haired-Cloud-with-buster-sword picture
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#378 | ffmasterjose | Posted 12/4/2011 2:06:09 PM | message detail
Hmm..that could actually be a good matchup. I'd still take da Boss. Simply on the grounds of Snake > Sephiroth

aww yeah
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#379 | The_Djoker | Posted 12/4/2011 2:08:22 PM | message detail

From: Kotetsu534 | #374
Zack would easily beat Tidus. Personally I'd like to see Tidus vs. Yuna (picking Yuna!).


Yuna would win. There would be heavy SFF clash and neutrals would vote for the hotter chick.
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#380 | The_Djoker | Posted 12/4/2011 2:12:54 PM | message detail
Well after today the 2nd round is over so we can all look forward to better Matches.
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#381 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 12/4/2011 2:22:34 PM | message detail

From: The_Djoker | #380
Well after today the 2nd round is over so we can all look forward to better Matches.


Not that they'll be any more exciting, of course.

This is probably going to be the closest we'll have to an exciting match.
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#382 | GrapefruitKing | Posted 12/4/2011 2:33:25 PM | message detail
Trainers vs. Ridley will end up being the best match of the contest
you'll see
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Oracle Challenge ~ Rank: 19th ~Today's prediction: Sora/Riku - 50.73%
#383 | HaRRicH | Posted 12/4/2011 2:36:54 PM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=4317

Yeah, if Giovanni can get this close to Ridley, imagine what the Trainers are gonna do to him!


What do you mean, there's a woman in the way.....
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#384 | GrapefruitKing | Posted 12/4/2011 2:39:25 PM | message detail
we need to get Giovanni in a contest... he's the only one in this poll to never be in a contest!
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#385 | PartOfYourWorld | Posted 12/4/2011 2:43:57 PM | message detail
Most of the eight R3 matches have potential for something unexpected, actually.

Mario/Sonic has huge variance. Mario can shoot for 70% or Sonic can make it respectable. I'm gonna have Mario going huge, but no one knows for sure. The ninjas still have a shot, however small, to make a go at X/Zero. Trainers/Fighters will be the most hyped match up until that point. Samus/Bosses is still not even close to guaranteed. Despite being underdogs, Team CT can still challenge Alucard. Snake is up against FFVII yet again, and after the last couple years, you can never call that a locked down guarantee. I'd say even Sora has a tiny shot to challenge Squall. The only dialed in, 1000% predictable result is Link over Mega Man somewhere in the high 60s or around there.

That said, given the nature of this contest, I predict none of these matches to actually be exciting.
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#386 | transience | Posted 12/4/2011 2:45:34 PM | message detail
smart people would bank on the Trainers because it is so easy to mess up. everyone else is going all-in so there's a good chance you'll end up being top ten just by not being crazy.

I, of course, am not smart.
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#387 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 12/4/2011 3:02:02 PM | message detail
I don't think I'll be banking on Trainers/Fighters, but I will do it on Samus/Trainers if I can survive all of round 3.
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#388 | The_Djoker | Posted 12/4/2011 3:04:52 PM | message detail

From: HaRRicH | #383
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=4317

Yeah, if Giovanni can get this close to Ridley, imagine what the Trainers are gonna do to him!


What do you mean, there's a woman in the way.....




A women that in her recent game was shown to be weak, insecure and seductive. Seriously Samus/Ridley will end up as the turds of the tournament by the end. They'll get blown away by Trainers/Ryu.
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#389 | The_Djoker | Posted 12/4/2011 3:11:44 PM | message detail
Woman*. And i meant submissive not seductive lol
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#390 | charmander6000 | Posted 12/4/2011 3:12:49 PM | message detail
Dante would 57-43 BB.

You're underestimating BB badly if you believe that, that's almost noble nine or at least Vincent/Squall level.
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Rivalry Rumble: 55/62 Today: Sora/Riku
#391 | GranzonEx | Posted 12/4/2011 3:14:00 PM | message detail
Is BB all that strong? He shouldn't be anywhere near Snake level.
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#392 | charmander6000 | Posted 12/4/2011 3:19:53 PM | message detail | (edited)
Mario got 63% on him last year so that would put Dante at getting 43% on Mario which is low noble nine/vincent level.
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/Rivalry%20BOP.xls
Rivalry Rumble: 55/62 Today: Sora/Riku
#393 | IngmarBirdman | Posted 12/4/2011 3:58:22 PM | message detail
Where's Albion when you need him? Dante's within rally-range, assuming Hitler received as many rally votes as it looked like he did.
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#394 | th3l3fty | Posted 12/4/2011 4:04:01 PM | message detail
Dante is not within rally range because it's not "funny"
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#395 | BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 12/4/2011 4:31:22 PM | message detail

From: charmander6000 | #390
Dante would 57-43 BB.

You're underestimating BB badly if you believe that, that's almost noble nine or at least Vincent/Squall level.


Depends on which BB we're talking about. Naked Snake I would take to be pretty close. Melty Big Boss like we saw this round would probably be close to 55-45
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#396 | Safer Sephiroth 777 | Posted 12/4/2011 4:41:00 PM | message detail
What I believe
Mawser/Sotnik=Easy win for Mario.
Xo/Ninjas=Tough one.X is stronger but I don't know.Toss up I believe(for me of course).
Trainers/Fighters=Ah before the contest everyone had fighters.Now?Trainers are the favorite.Still toss up I believe.
Saley/Bosses=Almost 50-50.Samus has the advantage.
Vampires/Frogus=Vampires are the clear favorites.I don't think Frog can do it.
Cloudoth/Snakes=Before the contest some said Snakes.Now I don't believe anyone believes that Snakes can do it.Still not impossible,but extremely hard.
Squer/Soru=Squall will win.Not by much,but he shall.
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#397 | JaKyL25 | Posted 12/4/2011 5:01:55 PM | message detail
Sweet Sixteen Breakdown By Publisher

Nintendo: 4
Square: 4
Capcom: 3
Konami: 3
Sega: 1
Midway: 1

MK Ninjas last ones standing for Western developers!

Pretty evenly distributed now, but Nintendo could easily go 4-0 in Round Three.

Also Alucard/Dracula will probably go farther than any other Konami (read: Metal Gear) rivalry. <_<
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#398 | pjbasis | Posted 12/4/2011 5:05:47 PM | message detail
I had more confidence in Chris/Wesker > The Bosses than I have in any R3 upset.

The only thing I hold out hope for is Cloud > Link.
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#399 | greatone10 | Posted 12/4/2011 5:33:38 PM | message detail
This contest is amusing. We are having a "close" match, yet the stats topic is debating the definition of a close match than discussing the match. lol
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#400 | red sox 777 | Posted 12/4/2011 5:34:32 PM | message detail
I think that's ample evidence that this match isn't really that close!
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