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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1028

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#301 | Ex-Kefiroth | Posted 12/4/2011 11:07:09 AM | message detail
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#302 | XIII_rocks | Posted 12/4/2011 11:07:25 AM | message detail | (edited)

From: red sox 777 | #300
Dante's not the biggest choker ever. You're right that DK and Chief have victories, so I think the title goes to Magus. Yes, he beat Ganondorf and amazed against Link, but that was 8 years ago, and he's had nonstop chokes since then.


The Devil Division 2005
aka best division ever

(not really but it was amazing)
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#303 | xp1337 | Posted 12/4/2011 11:10:41 AM | message detail
*Looks at poll*

...That might be the only significant (post-freeze) lead change this entire contest has, and naturally it happens while I'm asleep. =(

This contest.
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#304 | charmander6000 | Posted 12/4/2011 11:11:03 AM | message detail
500 vote barrier finallly broken
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/Rivalry%20BOP.xls
Rivalry Rumble: 55/62 Today: Sora/Riku
#305 | HaRRicH | Posted 12/4/2011 11:12:49 AM | message detail
To Magus's credit, he and Frog did just beat Chell/GLaDOS in a close one. Still, yeah, he's arguably the biggest choker around.
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#306 | Xuxon | Posted 12/4/2011 11:20:25 AM | message detail
Dante didn't choke in the 4-ways. Some of the matches were weird but he went as far as expected both times and beat two characters that were debated against him (Leon in 2007, MC in 2008).
#307 | LOLContests | Posted 12/4/2011 11:28:41 AM | message detail
I agree that calling Dante a choker is a bit of a stretch. He hasn't won many debated matches, but he wasn't the favorite to win any of those. He's pretty much performed as expected in most contests, 2010 (and possibly 2006) aside.
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#308 | charmander6000 | Posted 12/4/2011 11:30:21 AM | message detail | (edited)
But Pikachu and Kirby spoiled that a bit.

I also remember Crono/Dante was one of the most hyped match in round 2, but that was 2002. Besides he was only favoured to defeat Yoshi and Ryu when he failed.

Magus should be the biggest choker though. While he did barely win over Ganondorf he was suppose to defeat him with no issue (especially since Ganondorf almost lost to Tidus).
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/Rivalry%20BOP.xls
Rivalry Rumble: 55/62 Today: Sora/Riku
#309 | KamikazePotato | Posted 12/4/2011 11:30:34 AM | message detail
HaRRicH posted...
To Magus's credit, he and Frog did just beat Chell/GLaDOS in a close one. Still, yeah, he's arguably the biggest choker around.

Key word.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#310 | PartOfYourWorld | Posted 12/4/2011 11:34:31 AM | message detail | (edited)
Yes, Dante's best performances have been in the 4ways (reaching the semis in 2007 and quarters in 2008), but no one remembers a thing about those outside L-Block and the Crono/Vincent battles. Both 07 and 08 are meaningless as far as current discussions go.
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#311 | red sox 777 | Posted 12/4/2011 11:32:24 AM | message detail
And now that I think about it, Magus had quite a few people here backing him over Link! I think he might have even had more brackets taking him to win the contest than Cloud on Board 8.
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2002 Link, 2003 Cloud, 2004 Link, 2005 Link, 2006 Link, 2008 Link, 2010 Link, 2011 Cloud.
Link 6, Cloud 2
#312 | th3l3fty | Posted 12/4/2011 11:34:00 AM | message detail

From: PartOfYourWorld | #310
Yes, Dante's best performances have been in the 4ways (reaching the semis in 2007 and quarters in 2008), but no one remembers a thing about those outside L-Block and the Crono/Vincent battles. Both 07 and 08 are meaningless as far as current discussion go.


people also remember Kirby beating Sonic!

(and get burned by it every year)
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#313 | red sox 777 | Posted 12/4/2011 11:34:28 AM | message detail
Dante's never:

1. Lost a really close match.
2. Given up a really big lead.
3. Lost a match he was a heavy favorite to win.

So he doesn't come anywhere close to biggest choker in my book.
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2002 Link, 2003 Cloud, 2004 Link, 2005 Link, 2006 Link, 2008 Link, 2010 Link, 2011 Cloud.
Link 6, Cloud 2
#314 | charmander6000 | Posted 12/4/2011 11:35:00 AM | message detail
I wouldn't be surprised from that, but to be truthful probably 90% of the people that made a serious bracket on board 8 had Link winning.
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/Rivalry%20BOP.xls
Rivalry Rumble: 55/62 Today: Sora/Riku
#315 | red sox 777 | Posted 12/4/2011 11:36:50 AM | message detail
Yeah, Link had 7 times as many brackets as Cloud site-wide. On Board 8, it was probably much much worse.
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2002 Link, 2003 Cloud, 2004 Link, 2005 Link, 2006 Link, 2008 Link, 2010 Link, 2011 Cloud.
Link 6, Cloud 2
#316 | KamikazePotato | Posted 12/4/2011 11:37:02 AM | message detail
Man, Dante, quit teasing me with those big updates. They never go anywhere!
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#317 | transcience | Posted 12/4/2011 11:38:07 AM | message detail
wait, what? the Ryu match fits all three categories. so does the Yoshi match.

maybe he hasn't pulled a Magus and lost a match he was an obvious to win, but no one on his level has fewer notable wins.
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#318 | PartOfYourWorld | Posted 12/4/2011 11:38:34 AM | message detail
You make some good points, sox. Maybe calling him the ultimate choker is a bit harsh, but he's still the only established, strong, been-here-forever entrant without his moment in the sun. Chief had the impressive run in 2007. Magus had the win against Ganon. Even Donkey Kong (who no one has ever considered strong) had a close win against Aya and a lot of redemption this year. When you compare Dante's resume to that of entrants with similar strength, it's really, really lacking. Outside of crushing fodder, he only has some wins against Leon Kennedy, and those were in 4way matches no one cares about.
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#319 | charmander6000 | Posted 12/4/2011 11:38:44 AM | message detail
1. Lost a really close match.

Depends on your defination of a really close match, he's broken 49% on both Yoshi and Ryu

2. Given up a really big lead.

True

3. Lost a match he was a heavy favorite to win.

He was the heavy favourite against Yoshi IIRC and had almost twice as many brackets against Ryu.
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/Rivalry%20BOP.xls
Rivalry Rumble: 55/62 Today: Sora/Riku
#320 | transcience | Posted 12/4/2011 11:39:13 AM | message detail
well, maybe not lost a big lead, but I think he held a lead in both (3 if you count this one)
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iphonesience
#321 | red sox 777 | Posted 12/4/2011 11:41:15 AM | message detail
wait, what? the Ryu match fits all three categories. so does the Yoshi match.

Oh yeah, the Ryu match was really close. I think I forgot about it because 12-hour matches are just too forgettable, like 4-ways. The Yoshi match was not really close, Yoshi won by like 1500 votes and it wasn't in debate after the first few hours. We knew that Yoshi would kill the match with the ASV, and he did.

But the Ryu match only meets that first category, not the others. Dante never had a large lead, and there were always lots of people backing Ryu here.
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2002 Link, 2003 Cloud, 2004 Link, 2005 Link, 2006 Link, 2008 Link, 2010 Link, 2011 Cloud.
Link 6, Cloud 2
#322 | Xuxon | Posted 12/4/2011 11:43:16 AM | message detail

From: charmander6000 | #319
He was the heavy favourite against Yoshi IIRC


Yoshi was definitely the favorite there. I don't remember by how much, but I think it was pretty even.
#323 | LOLContests | Posted 12/4/2011 11:44:32 AM | message detail
Dante had a good moment in 2005 as well. People were calling for him to be doubled after Vincent's R1 and he went out and kept it close. Probably the best he's ever looked.
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#324 | charmander6000 | Posted 12/4/2011 11:45:06 AM | message detail
The Yoshi match was not really close, Yoshi won by like 1500 votes and it wasn't in debate after the first few hours. We knew that Yoshi would kill the match with the ASV, and he did.

Dante was expected to win the match after defeating Hayabusa with no problem and Yoshi struggling against Riku and the match may have ended at 1500, but it was close for the most part of the day.
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/Rivalry%20BOP.xls
Rivalry Rumble: 55/62 Today: Sora/Riku
#325 | charmander6000 | Posted 12/4/2011 11:45:57 AM | message detail
Yoshi was definitely the favorite there. I don't remember by how much, but I think it was pretty even.

Maybe initially, but after round 1 people thought Dante had it.
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/Rivalry%20BOP.xls
Rivalry Rumble: 55/62 Today: Sora/Riku
#326 | red sox 777 | Posted 12/4/2011 11:48:59 AM | message detail
It's not close if we knew that Yoshi was going to win cleanly, and we did. Yoshi led almost all day, Dante didn't take the lead until less than an hour before the ASV started IIRC, so there was basically no chance he could have won.
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2002 Link, 2003 Cloud, 2004 Link, 2005 Link, 2006 Link, 2008 Link, 2010 Link, 2011 Cloud.
Link 6, Cloud 2
#327 | charmander6000 | Posted 12/4/2011 11:53:28 AM | message detail
Sure it is, just because we know trends doesn't make the match not close.
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/Rivalry%20BOP.xls
Rivalry Rumble: 55/62 Today: Sora/Riku
#328 | ffmasterjose | Posted 12/4/2011 11:54:16 AM | message detail
Holy crap close match. At least it didnt disappoint!
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#329 | red sox 777 | Posted 12/4/2011 11:55:22 AM | message detail
1500 simply isn't really close. It's possible for it to feel really close if we get there as a result of massive vote swings like in Crono/Sonic or DK/Chief, but that's the exception. A match that's even until 3 PM and then the ASV character explodes to put up 1500 on the board.......not close.
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2002 Link, 2003 Cloud, 2004 Link, 2005 Link, 2006 Link, 2008 Link, 2010 Link, 2011 Cloud.
Link 6, Cloud 2
#330 | charmander6000 | Posted 12/4/2011 12:00:31 PM | message detail
Again the match was close for most of the day and a win of 1500 votes, especially with those vote totals is close. Yoshi only got 50.55% of the votes, you might as well call this match not close too.
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/Rivalry%20BOP.xls
Rivalry Rumble: 55/62 Today: Sora/Riku
#331 | red sox 777 | Posted 12/4/2011 12:05:26 PM | message detail | (edited)
This match isn't really close. I said really close, not just close.

If you want to give really close a quantitative definition, I'd go with "a match the outcome of which is still in doubt 60% of the way through into it." This match was essentially over by 3 AM last night, so that's only about 13% of the way through the match.
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2002 Link, 2003 Cloud, 2004 Link, 2005 Link, 2006 Link, 2008 Link, 2010 Link, 2011 Cloud.
Link 6, Cloud 2
#332 | TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 12/4/2011 12:17:11 PM | message detail
Its artificially close. Kinda like Crono vs Missingno, remember redsox? :p
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#333 | Lightning Strikes | Posted 12/4/2011 12:19:43 PM | message detail
Oh, whew. Looks like my perfect battle score lives to fight another day. :)
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#334 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 12/4/2011 12:21:55 PM | message detail
Guess how many teens | Posted 12/4/2011 9:06:13 AM | message detail
Luster factor? :)


Nope.

red sox 777 | Posted 12/4/2011 2:34:28 PM | message detail
Dante's never:

1. Lost a really close match.
2. Given up a really big lead.
3. Lost a match he was a heavy favorite to win.

So he doesn't come anywhere close to biggest choker in my book.


I wouldn't consider Dante a choker in this situation. To be a choker, you have to come out of nowhere and lose a match that this board did not expect.

Magus/Knuckles would be one of those matches that we weren't even expecting Magus to lose. No one really considered a possible Knuckles upset, and very few people on this board actually took Knuckles here. In that case, Magus would be considered a choker.
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#335 | red sox 777 | Posted 12/4/2011 12:22:27 PM | message detail
Crono/Missingno finished at 50.29%, so it was actually close! Not to mention it was in doubt all the way until Missingno got that massive surge of rallied votes in the final 2 hours.
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2002 Link, 2003 Cloud, 2004 Link, 2005 Link, 2006 Link, 2008 Link, 2010 Link, 2011 Cloud.
Link 6, Cloud 2
#336 | charmander6000 | Posted 12/4/2011 12:24:53 PM | message detail
Most of us expected that surge of votes, just like most of us expected Sora to take the day vote.

Still was an exciting match given the upset.
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/Rivalry%20BOP.xls
Rivalry Rumble: 55/62 Today: Sora/Riku
#337 | Xuxon | Posted 12/4/2011 12:34:42 PM | message detail
Hmm, Dante's stalled for over an hour. Maybe this isn't over yet?
#338 | red sox 777 | Posted 12/4/2011 12:38:46 PM | message detail
A rally of hundreds/thousands of votes is very different from Sora winning the day vote. Sora wins the day vote every single match he's in, very few matches have rallies at all, and rallies of the power that Missingno got are exceptionally rare.

This is pretty obvious- just look at the stats topic from that day and today. That day, the discussion was all about the match. Today, the discussion has been all about a fictional character contest and Dante's status as a a choker.
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2002 Link, 2003 Cloud, 2004 Link, 2005 Link, 2006 Link, 2008 Link, 2010 Link, 2011 Cloud.
Link 6, Cloud 2
#339 | Safer Sephiroth 777 | Posted 12/4/2011 12:39:47 PM | message detail
People should relax.I believe a match is considered close if the winner has less than 52%.From 52 to 55 it should be considered okay difference and above that pretty much owned.
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#340 | transience | Posted 12/4/2011 12:46:56 PM | message detail
yeah, I'm nervous about this match. Sora's gone nowhere for nearly two hours.

by your criteria, we've had probably less than 15 close matches ever. Magus/Knuckles? not close since it was obvious after a few updates. DK/Chief? that was over the second the comeback started. Kuja/Hand? lol
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#341 | red sox 777 | Posted 12/4/2011 12:50:15 PM | message detail
Magus/Knuckles was not very close. It was over by 9 AM. It was big for a different reason: we all thought Magus would win easily and he lost. DK/Chief was in doubt until late in the afternoon, so it passes the test. Kuja/Hand was obviously not close, not even ordinary close, much less really close. It may have been fun for the ridiculousness of a 5000 vote ASV, but close? No way.
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2002 Link, 2003 Cloud, 2004 Link, 2005 Link, 2006 Link, 2008 Link, 2010 Link, 2011 Cloud.
Link 6, Cloud 2
#342 | Safer Sephiroth 777 | Posted 12/4/2011 12:55:10 PM | message detail
So close match is considered then what?I would like to see what people believe.
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#343 | The_Djoker | Posted 12/4/2011 12:58:25 PM | message detail

From: red sox 777 | #338
A rally of hundreds/thousands of votes is very different from Sora winning the day vote. Sora wins the day vote every single match he's in, very few matches have rallies at all, and rallies of the power that Missingno got are exceptionally rare.

This is pretty obvious- just look at the stats topic from that day and today. That day, the discussion was all about the match. Today, the discussion has been all about a fictional character contest and Dante's status as a a choker.


How is Dante a choker in this match?
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#344 | XIII_rocks | Posted 12/4/2011 12:58:57 PM | message detail
A triple-digit lead is a close match, for me. Some quadruple digit ones too I guess, but if it's less than 1000 I consider that close.
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#345 | IloveYoda | Posted 12/4/2011 1:00:11 PM | message detail

From: Safer Sephiroth 777 | #342
So close match is considered then what?I would like to see what people believe.


http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/(4)Team_Fortress_2_vs_(13)Fable_2010

This is a close match. The updates were pretty much split down the middle for the entire match, and Fable almost won it on the last few updates.
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#346 | BK_Sheikah00 | Posted 12/4/2011 1:02:13 PM | message detail
#347 | The_Djoker | Posted 12/4/2011 1:08:13 PM | message detail
This is still fairly close. You can't say one side is vastly stronger than the other. People expected a 54+% win KH which was absurd.
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#348 | red sox 777 | Posted 12/4/2011 1:08:16 PM | message detail
Dante isn't a big choker, that's what I've been saying. This match isn't that close, so Dante shouldn't have it held against him too much.
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2002 Link, 2003 Cloud, 2004 Link, 2005 Link, 2006 Link, 2008 Link, 2010 Link, 2011 Cloud.
Link 6, Cloud 2
#349 | Safer Sephiroth 777 | Posted 12/4/2011 1:09:54 PM | message detail
Okay these 2 matches are close all right.But I still believe that is a very narrow margin.I mean today's match so far has a difference of 500 votes and isn't considered close.Well okay maybe I am mistaken then.
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#350 | GrapefruitKing | Posted 12/4/2011 1:16:43 PM | message detail
Dante's epic comeback is starting
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Oracle Challenge ~ Rank: 19th ~Today's prediction: Sora/Riku - 50.73%