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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1026

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#301 | The Mana Sword | Posted 11/30/2011 11:51:22 AM | message detail
damn you chrono trigger asv
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#302 | Winged Supreme | Posted 11/30/2011 11:55:46 AM | message detail
Guess how many teens posted...
I wonder how many battle brackets we'll lose today.

We hiveminded pretty strong yesterday, but I feel like this one at least 10 should fall (or at least 10 should remain if the pretty much impossible happens), right?


I'm on board with Frogus, so it looks like I'll be sticking around.

I think we might dip below 100, but not much below. I honestly don't think we'll dip below 50 until the semifinals and we could realistically finish with 25-30 perfects.
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#303 | Kotetsu534 | Posted 11/30/2011 12:03:13 PM | message detail | (edited)
If you'd been in charge of matching up the 2-seeds and 7-seeds, how would you have gone about it? Here's my 2 cents:

2-seeds -------------------- 7-seeds
Sonic/Robotnik .......vs. Banjo/Gruntilda
Sub-Zero/Scorpion vs. Raiden/Vamp
Fox/Wolf................... vs. Blazkowicz/Hitler
MM/Wily.................... vs. Big Boss/The Boss
Tidus/Jecht............. vs. Katherine/Catherine
Frog/Magus............ vs. Leon/Ada
Solid/Liquid............ vs. Yuna/Seymour
Sora/Riku................ vs. Crono/Lavos

Okay, I'll admit that's partially with the benefit of hindsight, but I'd like to see several hundred brackets go perfect through that minefield!
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#304 | pjbasis | Posted 11/30/2011 12:02:58 PM | message detail
I somehow doubt we'd have that many perfects.

More than half are looking to get wiped out in one go, and then the others are gonna be split among more than one late round match.
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#305 | red sox 777 | Posted 11/30/2011 12:04:25 PM | message detail
3 PM, time to see what the ASV will do. My guess is nothing.
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2002 Link, 2003 Cloud, 2004 Link, 2005 Link, 2006 Link, 2008 Link, 2010 Link, 2011 Cloud.
Link 6, Cloud 2
#306 | Guess how many teens | Posted 11/30/2011 12:04:34 PM | message detail
I think no matter what the outcome of Sora vs Dante will be, we'll be below 70. There are some hard matches left after that, people might bank etc. I'd be surprised if we had more than 10 perfects by the end.
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#307 | red sox 777 | Posted 11/30/2011 12:08:17 PM | message detail
We're going to lose all our remaining perfects on Link/Cloud.
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2002 Link, 2003 Cloud, 2004 Link, 2005 Link, 2006 Link, 2008 Link, 2010 Link, 2011 Cloud.
Link 6, Cloud 2
#308 | junk_funk | Posted 11/30/2011 12:12:36 PM | message detail
That's what I'm thinking. If there's no upsets then sure, we'll have 25-35 perfects at the end. But hardly anyone wants to bank at this point. All it will take is one good upset to drop the perfects down 60 to 80%.

And if Mario breaks Link than all bets are off.

More than likely though, I'll agree, there will be 20 or so perfect by the end.
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#309 | PartOfYourWorld | Posted 11/30/2011 12:12:39 PM | message detail

From: Guess how many teens | #306
I think no matter what the outcome of Sora vs Dante will be, we'll be below 70. There are some hard matches left after that, people might bank etc. I'd be surprised if we had more than 10 perfects by the end.


Kinda doubt it. We lost like THREE on yesterday's match, which was a decent place to either bank or go for the upset. We might not even dip below 100 today. Regardless, we won't lose a single perfect on the Cloud/Snake/Squall matches, so the number left tonight is the same number that'll head into Sora/Dante. If it's around 100 and Sora wins, we'll still be way over 70. Assuming no upsets (which at this point, means the Trainers beat the Fighters), we may even be at 50 perfects for Alucard/Frog, which is ****ing ridiculous.
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#310 | Kotetsu534 | Posted 11/30/2011 12:12:58 PM | message detail
Anyone remember that wild theory someone had about CT/Castlevania SFF? Watch Frog/Magus take advantage of this unusual phenomenon to sneak to victory!
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Praise the Black Turtle, Game of the Decade Guru Champ.
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#311 | Kotetsu534 | Posted 11/30/2011 12:14:39 PM | message detail
Yes, I think most people who bet on Sora/Dante will go with Sora. Wouldn't surprise me if more people banked than went for Dante.
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Praise the Black Turtle, Game of the Decade Guru Champ.
(Well, I never promised creativity, did I?!)
#312 | red sox 777 | Posted 11/30/2011 12:15:33 PM | message detail
Anyone remember that wild theory someone had about CT/Castlevania SFF? Watch Frog/Magus take advantage of this unusual phenomenon to sneak to victory!

It wouldn't help if Alucard/Dracula are stronger.....then they'd be the team getting the SFF.
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2002 Link, 2003 Cloud, 2004 Link, 2005 Link, 2006 Link, 2008 Link, 2010 Link, 2011 Cloud.
Link 6, Cloud 2
#313 | Zylo the wolf | Posted 11/30/2011 12:16:11 PM | message detail
Why have we never seen this Alucard in a match picture?

http://www.relyonhorror.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/alucardnes.jpg
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Ngamer64: Zylo, you're making less sense every day. Black Turtle > Me
#314 | pjbasis | Posted 11/30/2011 12:26:51 PM | message detail
#315 | Wii_TuRtLe | Posted 11/30/2011 12:42:39 PM | message detail
Kotetsu534 posted...
If you'd been in charge of matching up the 2-seeds and 7-seeds, how would you have gone about it? Here's my 2 cents:

2-seeds -------------------- 7-seeds
Sonic/Robotnik .......vs. Banjo/Gruntilda
Sub-Zero/Scorpion vs. Raiden/Vamp
Fox/Wolf................... vs. Blazkowicz/Hitler
MM/Wily.................... vs. Big Boss/The Boss
Tidus/Jecht............. vs. Katherine/Catherine
Frog/Magus............ vs. Leon/Ada
Solid/Liquid............ vs. Yuna/Seymour
Sora/Riku................ vs. Crono/Lavos

Okay, I'll admit that's partially with the benefit of hindsight, but I'd like to see several hundred brackets go perfect through that minefield!


Swap Sonic with Sub-Zero, and Crono with the Bosses and you have 3 great matches (X/Sonic, Crono/MM, Sora/Bosses and potentially Squall/Bosses. Swap Yuna with atherines for another great match.
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#316 | junk_funk | Posted 11/30/2011 12:56:51 PM | message detail
A pretty quiet little rally here.
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#317 | Wii_TuRtLe | Posted 11/30/2011 1:02:12 PM | message detail
PartOfYourWorld posted...
From: Guess how many teens | #306
I think no matter what the outcome of Sora vs Dante will be, we'll be below 70. There are some hard matches left after that, people might bank etc. I'd be surprised if we had more than 10 perfects by the end.
Kinda doubt it. We lost like THREE on yesterday's match, which was a decent place to either bank or go for the upset. We might not even dip below 100 today. Regardless, we won't lose a single perfect on the Cloud/Snake/Squall matches, so the number left tonight is the same number that'll head into Sora/Dante. If it's around 100 and Sora wins, we'll still be way over 70. Assuming no upsets (which at this point, means the Trainers beat the Fighters), we may even be at 50 perfects for Alucard/Frog, which is ****ing ridiculous.


Sora/Dante is definitely way more of a tossup than yesterday was. Also way more of a tossup than Alucard/Frog will be.
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#318 | Zylo the wolf | Posted 11/30/2011 1:02:30 PM | message detail
Finally a cut from Frog/Magus.

And now I no longer care to watch this match.
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Ngamer64: Zylo, you're making less sense every day. Black Turtle > Me
#319 | whatisurnameplz | Posted 11/30/2011 1:09:53 PM | message detail

From: Zylo the wolf | #313
Why have we never seen this Alucard in a match picture?

http://www.relyonhorror.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/alucardnes.jpg?tti


To be honest, I bet Alucard/Dracula would do better if they had their images that were closer to the stereotypical Dracula/Alucard.
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#320 | red sox 777 | Posted 11/30/2011 1:21:22 PM | message detail
Looks like Chell/GlaDOS won the first hour of the ASV by 10 votes. And gave it all back immediately.
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2002 Link, 2003 Cloud, 2004 Link, 2005 Link, 2006 Link, 2008 Link, 2010 Link, 2011 Cloud.
Link 6, Cloud 2
#321 | AxemRedRanger | Posted 11/30/2011 1:41:01 PM | message detail
Is there any place out there with data on how often Dante and Vergil are used in MvC3/UMvC3?

If not, anecdotal evidence would also be appreciated.
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#322 | Janus5000 | Posted 11/30/2011 1:45:58 PM | message detail
Wow, this contest is so bad that the ASV in a CT match is just a stall.
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#323 | LeonhartFour | Posted 11/30/2011 1:55:02 PM | message detail
#324 | red sox 777 | Posted 11/30/2011 1:56:09 PM | message detail
Frog and Magus have been safe since the freeze. Trends are never off by that much! It's just like how Cloud/Snake was over at the freeze last year when Snake only had 52%.
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2002 Link, 2003 Cloud, 2004 Link, 2005 Link, 2006 Link, 2008 Link, 2010 Link, 2011 Cloud.
Link 6, Cloud 2
#325 | Lopen | Posted 11/30/2011 2:08:34 PM | message detail

From: AxemRedRanger | #321
Is there any place out there with data on how often Dante and Vergil are used in MvC3/UMvC3?

If not, anecdotal evidence would also be appreciated.


Online on the PS3 they're both among the characters I see the most. Dante, Vergil, Wesker, Sentinel.

And yeah CT has this pretty easily at this point. They had it when they hit 1000. Like Red Sox said this is like a 2000 lead in a normal contest.
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#326 | LeonhartFour | Posted 11/30/2011 2:16:14 PM | message detail
This is probably CT's most boring close match.

But we still have nearly filled up a stats topic over one match! That's a record for this contest...!
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#327 | Janus5000 | Posted 11/30/2011 2:17:34 PM | message detail
CT is saving the choke/clutch for next round, clearly...!
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#328 | LeonhartFour | Posted 11/30/2011 2:19:39 PM | message detail
60% update for Portal there.

Huh.
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#329 | greatone10 | Posted 11/30/2011 2:21:18 PM | message detail | (edited)
Oh god, CT and Castlevania. Will votes somehow regress during that ASV?
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#330 | PartOfYourWorld | Posted 11/30/2011 2:21:25 PM | message detail
This is to Rivalry Rumble what MGS2/SotC was to GotD. I feel our only good chance at what we'd universally deem a "good match" rests with Alucard/Frog and Maybe Cloud/Snake. I think Link will run away with any match he's in and that the Trainers will easily win their next two matches before bowing out with 45% on Mario.
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#331 | PartOfYourWorld | Posted 11/30/2011 2:22:44 PM | message detail

From: LeonhartFour | #328
60% update for Portal there.

Huh.


I assume that's the first 60% update for anyone (I mean, if CT couldn't even do it during the freeze).
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#332 | LeonhartFour | Posted 11/30/2011 2:23:13 PM | message detail
Fighters > Trainers

Yes
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#333 | junk_funk | Posted 11/30/2011 2:23:19 PM | message detail
What's this burst of votes about?
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#334 | LeonhartFour | Posted 11/30/2011 2:24:26 PM | message detail
We had a couple of 60% updates during the dead zone, but other than that.
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#335 | Kotetsu534 | Posted 11/30/2011 2:24:35 PM | message detail
Frog/Magus had a 60.5% update in the seventh hour (83 to 54).
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#336 | FateStayAlbion | Posted 11/30/2011 2:26:50 PM | message detail
junk_funk posted...
What's this burst of votes about?

Probably just a rally. Glados has had a spike in votes.. it'll likely go down after a few updates
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#337 | Janus5000 | Posted 11/30/2011 2:27:00 PM | message detail
Those were Portal's two biggest updates in the past six hours. Huh.
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#338 | LeonhartFour | Posted 11/30/2011 2:27:22 PM | message detail
#339 | transience | Posted 11/30/2011 2:40:16 PM | message detail
epic 1100 vote stall
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#340 | The_Djoker | Posted 11/30/2011 2:44:42 PM | message detail
So tomorrows match....Cloud/Seph to get over 80% with ease? Kratos/Zeus is weaker than Kratos/Lloyd I would have thought.
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#341 | LeonhartFour | Posted 11/30/2011 2:48:33 PM | message detail

From: The_Djoker | #340
Kratos/Zeus is weaker than Kratos/Lloyd I would have thought.


If only.
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#342 | Sorozone | Posted 11/30/2011 2:50:03 PM | message detail
I dunno, they both have terrible board votes. Cloud/Seph will probably be(more)anti-voted, but they also will most likely have the bracket vote.

They'll do worse percentage wise this round if I had to guess.
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#343 | red sox 777 | Posted 11/30/2011 2:51:36 PM | message detail
Kratos/Zeus feels like a match Cloud/Sephiroth can excel at. They're fellow Playstation characters, and not the type of characters who would draw out the FFVII anti-votes in force. Though after last round, I've sort of have the feeling that Cloud/Seph can't hit 80% on anything, just because of the anti-votes. And of course, even if Kratos/Zeus are relatively good opponents for them, they're still not as good as Link, the one opponent who minimizes the impact of the anti-votes, for the reason that the largest portion of the anti-voters would already be voting Link anyway.
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2002 Link, 2003 Cloud, 2004 Link, 2005 Link, 2006 Link, 2008 Link, 2010 Link, 2011 Cloud.
Link 6, Cloud 2
#344 | PartOfYourWorld | Posted 11/30/2011 2:54:47 PM | message detail
red sox, are you considering playing Skyward Sword anytime soon? It thrills me beyond belief to tell you that SS Link is arguably the best and most accomplished version of Link.
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#345 | red sox 777 | Posted 11/30/2011 3:00:34 PM | message detail
I still don't have any current gen systems, so........maybe I'll get myself a Wii and SS for Christmas?
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2002 Link, 2003 Cloud, 2004 Link, 2005 Link, 2006 Link, 2008 Link, 2010 Link, 2011 Cloud.
Link 6, Cloud 2
#346 | KingButz | Posted 11/30/2011 3:04:06 PM | message detail
GlaDOS won that hour, but not by much.
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#347 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 11/30/2011 3:09:30 PM | message detail
Looking back at Kratos/Zeus, they actually rose over 4% on the first update of the match after the board vote. Not even Cloud/Sephiroth managed that. Kratos/Zeus rose more than Cloud/Sephiroth from the freeze until the end of the match. Kratos/Zeus finished 7.54% higher than what he had at the freeze, while it was just 7.08% for Cloud/Sephiroth.

I figure Cloud/Sephiroth still loses the board vote here, because even Vincent easily got the board vote over Sephiroth back in 2010. Before Sephiroth actually started to get anti-voted harder after taking out Missingno.
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#348 | red sox 777 | Posted 11/30/2011 3:14:11 PM | message detail
Interesting. I figure as you do that Cloud/Seph will probably still lose the board vote, because they always do. I want to note that in last year's final, Cloud was over 45% on Link a minute into the poll, and only finished a bit more than 1% above that at the end of the day. Of course, Cloud got killed in the second half of the first 5 minutes, when the typical FFVII anti-voting overpowered the Link anti-voting from people who know that Link Always Wins.
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2002 Link, 2003 Cloud, 2004 Link, 2005 Link, 2006 Link, 2008 Link, 2010 Link, 2011 Cloud.
Link 6, Cloud 2
#349 | Zylo the wolf | Posted 11/30/2011 3:52:22 PM | message detail
This match have been going nowhere for the last 4 hours. If this was a 12hour daymatch, then Frog/Magus would only have a 300 lead. Now that would've been a match like Chrono Trigger VS Lttp.
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#350 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 11/30/2011 4:45:01 PM | message detail | (edited)
Oh wow the CT guys rose almost 0.1% since I last checked.

I just realized how many guys with awful ASVs we have in this division. Ouch. Ness and Giygas probably have the best day vote out of everyone in this division.
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