GameFAQs Contests

Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1026

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#1 | LeonhartFour | Posted 11/29/2011 9:16:42 PM | message detail
Will Magus ruin Frog's clutch? Stay tuned!

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http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories

~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

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https://spreadsheets.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?hl=en&key=tOGmynfNIiNy5VukpEF-PdA&hl=en#gid=0

~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages

~*Say What? Common Stats Topic Lingo Defined*~

SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote. This is the best example of SFF we've ever seen. However take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make perfect sense.

Extrapolated Standings - The mathematical "strength" of a contestant that's determined based on their performance relative to the rest of the field. This number is typically based on the contest entrant's loss, but adjustments are sometimes made. See above for a watered down explanation for how the stats are calculated.
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#2 | The Real Truth | Posted 11/29/2011 9:17:18 PM | message detail
Play Xenogears
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#3 | paulg235 | Posted 11/29/2011 9:17:39 PM | message detail
CTAHACM (Chrono Trigger Always Has A Close Match)
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#4 | KamikazePotato | Posted 11/29/2011 9:18:44 PM | message detail
Really think GlaDOS wins this now. Europe is going to be killer.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#5 | ZFS | Posted 11/29/2011 9:18:58 PM | message detail
Portal and Chrono Trigger both awesome tbqh
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#6 | XIII_rocks | Posted 11/29/2011 9:18:58 PM | message detail
glorious best 500 ever

go go go close match
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#7 | creativename | Posted 11/29/2011 9:19:07 PM | message detail
FROG

DON'T SUCK


Say what?

Shouldn't that be MAGUS, DON'T SUCK?
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#8 | WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 11/29/2011 9:19:08 PM | message detail
Frog/Magus to gain 50 votes this update, FFIV vs. WaLuigi to remain closest match of the contest.
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#9 | greatone10 | Posted 11/29/2011 9:19:17 PM | message detail
So it looks like Portal is

*puts on sunglasses*

STILL ALIVE!


YEEEEEAAAAAAH!
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#10 | Lopen | Posted 11/29/2011 9:19:21 PM | message detail
Frog/Magus with 56.14% book it.
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#11 | Ultimaphazon | Posted 11/29/2011 9:19:21 PM | message detail
Is this really happening? This contest gets a good match? *shocked*
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#12 | The Real Truth | Posted 11/29/2011 9:19:29 PM | message detail
UGAS
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#13 | charmander6000 | Posted 11/29/2011 9:19:58 PM | message detail
Really think GlaDOS wins this now. Europe is going to be killer.

Frog and Magus have hours before Europe.
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/Rivalry%20BOP.xls
Rivalry Rumble: 47/54 Today: Frog/Magus
#14 | GrapefruitKing | Posted 11/29/2011 9:20:16 PM | message detail
May the next update be super-decisive, I just want to go to bed
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~ Rivalry Rumble Oracle Challenge ~ Rank - 24th
Today's Prediction: Frog / Magus - 54.25%
#15 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 11/29/2011 9:20:37 PM | message detail
Frog/Magus is still winning Europe, but it's also too early to know where Europe's percentages will stabilize at. I guess by 3:00 AM, we'll have a good idea of where Europe stands in this match.
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#16 | GrapefruitKing | Posted 11/29/2011 9:21:12 PM | message detail
eew
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~ Rivalry Rumble Oracle Challenge ~ Rank - 24th
Today's Prediction: Frog / Magus - 54.25%
#17 | nintendogirl1 (Moderator) | Posted 11/29/2011 9:21:22 PM | message detail
-LusterSoldier- posted...
Frog/Magus is still winning Europe, but it's also too early to know where Europe's percentages will stabilize at. I guess by 3:00 AM, we'll have a good idea of where Europe stands in this match.

Losing the UK though.
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Ho hum.
#18 | XIII_rocks | Posted 11/29/2011 9:21:25 PM | message detail
#19 | LeonhartFour | Posted 11/29/2011 9:21:42 PM | message detail
#20 | ZFS | Posted 11/29/2011 9:22:07 PM | message detail
Raiden no chance
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"When I was a young man, I had liberty, but I did not see it. I had time, but I did not know it."
#21 | FateStayAlbion | Posted 11/29/2011 9:22:08 PM | message detail
I'd expect Frog/Magus to be constantly building a lead until like 4 AM. CT doesn't really fall apart until the late night
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#22 | ExThaNemesis | Posted 11/29/2011 9:22:13 PM | message detail
#23 | WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 11/29/2011 9:22:18 PM | message detail
Chell/GlaDOS couldn't murder goddamn Earthbound overnight, so I'm not so sure they'll be able to do it to Frog/Magus.
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#24 | XIII_rocks | Posted 11/29/2011 9:22:39 PM | message detail
Masamunes are so boring now the Smegmamune exists
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#25 | Lopen | Posted 11/29/2011 9:24:06 PM | message detail | (edited)
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=4553&region=BR

Just wait till the Brazilians wake up, Raiden got this
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#26 | paulg235 | Posted 11/29/2011 9:24:15 PM | message detail
02 - Crono/Mario
03 - Magus/Ganondorf, Crono/Mario
04 - CT/LTTP, Frog/Master Chief
05 - Magus/Knuckles
06 - Crono/Sonic
07 - Frog/Axel, Crono/Vincent
08 - Magus/Sandbag, Crono/Vincent
09 - CT/SM64
10 - Crono/Missingno
11 - Frogus/ChellDOS

Make it happen.
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His dark secret is he's really Spark Brushel in disguise. If people knew, he'd be ruined. - Spiral on the black psyche locks
#27 | UltimaterializerX | Posted 11/29/2011 9:25:01 PM | message detail
This match is actually close, what?
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#28 | Kotetsu534 | Posted 11/29/2011 9:25:29 PM | message detail
Just think how much of a bastard next round is gonna be to call for any perfects left.
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#29 | red sox 777 | Posted 11/29/2011 9:26:06 PM | message detail
Projections at the 20-minute mark:

Based on Vincent/GlaDOS and Crono/Vincent 2008, Frog/Magus win with 57.22%
Based on Vincent/GlaDOS and Crono/Vincent 2007, Frog/Magus win with 50.97%
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2002 Link, 2003 Cloud, 2004 Link, 2005 Link, 2006 Link, 2008 Link, 2010 Link, 2011 Cloud.
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#30 | Sorozone | Posted 11/29/2011 9:26:12 PM | message detail
Damn, wasn't the last perfect to show up on the leaderboard. My night is ruined.
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#31 | WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 11/29/2011 9:26:21 PM | message detail
#32 | XIII_rocks | Posted 11/29/2011 9:26:22 PM | message detail
A small cut? Man this lead is just...stagnant.
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#33 | LeonhartFour | Posted 11/29/2011 9:26:23 PM | message detail
UH OH
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#34 | GrapefruitKing | Posted 11/29/2011 9:26:24 PM | message detail
grrr
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~ Rivalry Rumble Oracle Challenge ~ Rank - 24th
Today's Prediction: Frog / Magus - 54.25%
#35 | charmander6000 | Posted 11/29/2011 9:26:28 PM | message detail
now we have a match
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/Rivalry%20BOP.xls
Rivalry Rumble: 47/54 Today: Frog/Magus
#36 | paulg235 | Posted 11/29/2011 9:26:56 PM | message detail
HELLO
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The Gamer In Me
His dark secret is he's really Spark Brushel in disguise. If people knew, he'd be ruined. - Spiral on the black psyche locks
#37 | creativename | Posted 11/29/2011 9:27:29 PM | message detail

From: paulg235 | #106
02 - Crono/Mario
03 - Magus/Ganondorf, Crono/Mario
04 - CT/LTTP, Frog/Master Chief
05 - Magus/Knuckles
06 - Crono/Sonic
07 - Frog/Axel, Crono/Vincent
08 - Magus/Sandbag, Crono/Vincent
09 - CT/SM64
10 - Crono/Missingno
11 - Frogus/ChellDOS

Make it happen.


Every. SIngle. Year.

My god this Chrono Trigger.
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#38 | Kotetsu534 | Posted 11/29/2011 9:27:33 PM | message detail
Frogus need to recover - no dropping below 200 votes yet!
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Praise the Black Turtle, Game of the Decade Guru Champ.
(Well, I never promised creativity, did I?!)
#39 | WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 11/29/2011 9:27:40 PM | message detail
It'd be hilarious if Frog/Magus collapsed to the point where this still didn't end as a 55-45 match. >_>
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#40 | Lopen | Posted 11/29/2011 9:29:10 PM | message detail
Portal's joke vote gonna taper off soon.

56.14% the dream lives on
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#41 | PartOfYourWorld | Posted 11/29/2011 9:29:22 PM | message detail
The most hilarious scenario would be Frog/Magus winning by something pathetic like 200 votes so that they keep the Battle Perfects going strong but force everyone to side with Alucard.

And then they beat Alucard.
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#42 | Team Rocket Elite (Moderator) | Posted 11/29/2011 9:30:00 PM | message detail
The most hilarious scenario would be Frog/Magus winning by something pathetic like 200 votes so that they keep the Battle Perfects going strong but force everyone to side with Alucard.

And then they beat Alucard.


All part of The Plan.
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#43 | red sox 777 | Posted 11/29/2011 9:30:12 PM | message detail
Projections make me feel pretty good. They show that Portal is also extremely frontloaded and has basically no day vote advantage over CT. It also does badly in Europe. Historically Crono/Vincent 2008 has been a better predictor of trends than Crono/Vincent 2007, because Crono/Vincent 2007 had the most lopsided, ridiculous, trends ever. And it still predicts a CT victory here.
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Link 6, Cloud 2
#44 | KamikazePotato | Posted 11/29/2011 9:30:38 PM | message detail
This isn't even looking like it'll be a good match. Frog/Magus are just gonna die.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#45 | PartOfYourWorld | Posted 11/29/2011 9:31:12 PM | message detail
There have been four "real" updates and CT has lost two. Which part of that makes you feel good. lol
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#46 | XIII_rocks | Posted 11/29/2011 9:31:28 PM | message detail
FROG AND MAGUS TAKE IT ALL BACK
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#47 | LeonhartFour | Posted 11/29/2011 9:31:30 PM | message detail
YES
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#48 | Kotetsu534 | Posted 11/29/2011 9:31:32 PM | message detail
Woo!
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Praise the Black Turtle, Game of the Decade Guru Champ.
(Well, I never promised creativity, did I?!)
#49 | Lieutenant Kettch | Posted 11/29/2011 9:31:33 PM | message detail
paulg235 posted...

Make it happen.


Should add Frog/Liquid in. That was a great match too.
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#50 | GrapefruitKing | Posted 11/29/2011 9:31:36 PM | message detail
I'll just assume that Fromagus are safe and go to bed
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Today's Prediction: Frog / Magus - 54.25%