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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1025

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#151 | transience | Posted 11/28/2011 7:14:59 PM | message detail
I would probably say 15 seconds tops.
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#152 | red sox 777 | Posted 11/28/2011 7:15:26 PM | message detail
He led Magus for half an hour........so let's go with less than 1 minute.
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2002 Link, 2003 Cloud, 2004 Link, 2005 Link, 2006 Link, 2008 Link, 2010 Link, 2011 Cloud.
Link 6, Cloud 2
#153 | LeonhartFour | Posted 11/28/2011 7:36:17 PM | message detail
You know, Link himself may generate contest discussion, but it's hard to care about what the opponent who's about to face him does! Against an opponent like Sonic/Robotnik next round, we'd be talking up that big showdown after a disappointing performance for Mega Man/Wily, but with Link/Ganon ahead, it doesn't even matter.

So Sonic/Robotnik vs. Mega Man/Wily: Who ya got?
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#154 | red sox 777 | Posted 11/28/2011 7:40:42 PM | message detail
Megaman/Wily still win. It's not like this performance is outright bad; MM is going to come in just a little shy of the spread.
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2002 Link, 2003 Cloud, 2004 Link, 2005 Link, 2006 Link, 2008 Link, 2010 Link, 2011 Cloud.
Link 6, Cloud 2
#155 | BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 11/28/2011 7:41:26 PM | message detail
Mega Man easy. I still think that this result is more Zidane boosting than anything. Let's compare what Mega Man has done in the last 3 years to what Sonic has done.
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Game of the decade? More like Guru of the decade mirite?
#156 | red sox 777 | Posted 11/28/2011 7:41:29 PM | message detail
And next round will be the first real test of what Ganondorf brings to the table as a partner.
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2002 Link, 2003 Cloud, 2004 Link, 2005 Link, 2006 Link, 2008 Link, 2010 Link, 2011 Cloud.
Link 6, Cloud 2
#157 | foxhead84 | Posted 11/28/2011 7:50:08 PM | message detail
Votals seems to be going up... This match just break 50k while DK vs MK and Kirby vs Sonic failed to do so
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#158 | LeonhartFour | Posted 11/28/2011 7:50:53 PM | message detail

From: BlAcK TuRtLe | #155
Mega Man easy. I still think that this result is more Zidane boosting than anything. Let's compare what Mega Man has done in the last 3 years to what Sonic has done.


Mega Man looked pretty bad in 2007 and 2008. He only started looking good again in 2010.
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#159 | BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 11/28/2011 7:51:39 PM | message detail

From: LeonhartFour | #158
Mega Man looked pretty bad in 2007 and 2008. He only started looking good again in 2010.


Compared to Sonic?
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Game of the decade? More like Guru of the decade mirite?
#160 | LeonhartFour | Posted 11/28/2011 7:52:23 PM | message detail
For the record, assuming Sonic/Robotnik and Mega Man/Wily are equal, Kirby/Meta Knight get 55.13% on Zidane/Kuja.

Anything more than that, and Sonic would win.
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#161 | LeonhartFour | Posted 11/28/2011 7:53:44 PM | message detail

From: BlAcK TuRtLe | #159
Compared to Sonic?


Couldn't even beat Samus when she was getting LFF'd by Yoshi, ending up much closer than Ryu than to Samus in 2007.

Getting crushed by Snake and barely able to beat Snake combined with Zero in 2008, losing to WCC.

Not good showings for Mega Man, no matter what metric you use. Sonic has reason to improve since the last time he's been in a 1-on-1 contest anyway.
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#162 | LeonhartFour | Posted 11/28/2011 7:54:43 PM | message detail
I'm not sure why we're making 1-on-1 comparisons here anyway. That's not what we're arguing.
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#163 | red sox 777 | Posted 11/28/2011 8:01:07 PM | message detail | (edited)
MM looked a lot better than Sonic in 2008 and 2010. That's undisputable. Getting beaten up by Snake, Samus, and Mario is par for the course for MM. Getting beaten by Auron and Kirby......is quite another matter.
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2002 Link, 2003 Cloud, 2004 Link, 2005 Link, 2006 Link, 2008 Link, 2010 Link, 2011 Cloud.
Link 6, Cloud 2
#164 | LeonhartFour | Posted 11/28/2011 8:02:55 PM | message detail
That's not really the issue here though, so I'm still not sure why we're arguing about it. Yes, Mega Man didn't look as bad as Sonic in 2008, but from 2006-2009 (counting the Games Contest), he looked pretty subpar by his usual standards. He rose back up to the occasion in 2010, sure. I don't mind admitting that.

But Sonic has had two well received games since the last time he was in a 1-on-1 contest, and 1-on-1 comparisons don't correlate 100% to this contest, so whether Mega Man is stronger than Sonic 1-on-1 (or was from 2007-2010) is irrelevant to the matter of whether Mega Man/Wily would beat Sonic/Robotnik now.
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#165 | red sox 777 | Posted 11/28/2011 8:06:40 PM | message detail
Well, I think we're approaching this from the perspective that MM/Sonic 1v1 is the best measurement we have currently. The general feeling seems to be that Wily is slightly better a partner than Robotnik or they're equal. I mean, who knows how strong Kirby/MK is relative to Zidane/Kuja? (Or if there's SFF in Sonic/Kirby) We can't make good comparisons based on stuff we're very unsure on, so we're going to fall back on 1v1 stuff that's a bit more definite.
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2002 Link, 2003 Cloud, 2004 Link, 2005 Link, 2006 Link, 2008 Link, 2010 Link, 2011 Cloud.
Link 6, Cloud 2
#166 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 11/28/2011 8:07:24 PM | message detail
foxhead84 | Posted 11/28/2011 10:50:08 PM | message detail
Votals seems to be going up... This match just break 50k while DK vs MK and Kirby vs Sonic failed to do so


Well, we did just have 2 matches in a row involving Noble Niners, so I don't think it's surprising at all. I'll wait and see if this trend can continue, which means I'll need to see at least the next 2 matches break 50000 votes before I can say that votals are increasing.
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#167 | LeonhartFour | Posted 11/28/2011 8:08:02 PM | message detail
And yet we can't even say Mega Man is still stronger than Sonic 1-on-1 now.

No, we can't determine how strong Kirby/Meta Knight are to Zidane/Kuja, but I'm pretty sure people would bet the house on Kirby/Meta Knight if you gave that match a 55/45 spread.

That's all I'm saying.
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#168 | red sox 777 | Posted 11/28/2011 8:14:23 PM | message detail
I don't know about that. I know I wouldn't bet too much on that spread. Zidane was close to Ike last year, who did better against Mario with 26% than I would expect out of Kirby. 45% on Pikachu too, which is only a little worse than I'd expect out of Kirby. Throw in rivalry factor and the site losing half its voters, and I wouldn't be confident in Kirby/MK beating that spread.

I'd bet more on MM/Wily beating Sonic/Robotnik, honestly. And there is the matter of SFF to deal with- Sonic and MM are both quasi-Nintendo at this point. We've seen MM blast Nintendo midcarders with SFF before, and I don't see why Sonic can't do it too.
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2002 Link, 2003 Cloud, 2004 Link, 2005 Link, 2006 Link, 2008 Link, 2010 Link, 2011 Cloud.
Link 6, Cloud 2
#169 | LeonhartFour | Posted 11/28/2011 8:14:55 PM | message detail

From: red sox 777 | #168
who did better against Mario with 26% than I would expect out of Kirby.


Mario wouldn't SFF Kirby that badly, I would wager.
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#170 | LeonhartFour | Posted 11/28/2011 8:57:05 PM | message detail
It seems kinda disturbing to me that such a large chunk of the board is predicting a 56-58% Alucard win.

Makes it feel like it'll be way off, in one direction or the other.
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#171 | IngmarBirdman | Posted 11/28/2011 9:00:25 PM | message detail
Phoenix will probably pull a Phoenix and do worse. He's Zidane-ish in that way where he dodges expectations for no good reason but to pester Oracle predictions.
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#172 | FFDragon | Posted 11/28/2011 9:01:04 PM | message detail
Time for Vampires to wreck shop.
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#173 | Janus5000 | Posted 11/28/2011 9:01:20 PM | message detail
Phoenix Wright vs. Miles Edgeworth 72% 18
Alucard vs. Dracula 28% 7
TOTAL VOTES 25

hold it
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#174 | LeonhartFour | Posted 11/28/2011 9:01:21 PM | message detail
Vote Accepted

Phoenix Wright vs. Miles Edgeworth 64.71% 11
Alucard vs. Dracula 35.29% 6
TOTAL VOTES 17
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#175 | xp1337 | Posted 11/28/2011 9:01:21 PM | message detail
Phoenix Wright vs. Miles Edgeworth 55.56% 5
Alucard vs. Dracula 44.44% 4
TOTAL VOTES 9
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#176 | PartOfYourWorld | Posted 11/28/2011 9:01:22 PM | message detail
Phoenix Wright vs. Miles Edgeworth 70.83%

17
Alucard vs. Dracula 29.17%

7
TOTAL VOTES 24
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#177 | JJH777 | Posted 11/28/2011 9:01:50 PM | message detail
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IP9PoBlFDp4
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#178 | tennisboy213 | Posted 11/28/2011 9:02:11 PM | message detail
Vote Accepted

Phoenix Wright vs. Miles Edgeworth 53.95% 82
Alucard vs. Dracula 46.05% 70
TOTAL VOTES 152
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#179 | LeonhartFour | Posted 11/28/2011 9:02:28 PM | message detail
Phoenix Wright vs. Miles Edgeworth 49.8% 125
Alucard vs. Dracula 50.2% 126
TOTAL VOTES 251

There it is.
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#180 | LeonhartFour | Posted 11/28/2011 9:02:56 PM | message detail
#181 | IngmarBirdman | Posted 11/28/2011 9:03:03 PM | message detail
How long was that? 1 minute? Hah.
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"Ovelia ... SPOILERS IN THE KEYWORDS WOOPS"
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#182 | FateStayAlbion | Posted 11/28/2011 9:03:03 PM | message detail
Phoenix couldn't even hold onto the lead for more than 2 minutes... I expected him to lead by the freeze
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#183 | Master Moltar | Posted 11/28/2011 9:03:21 PM | message detail
well that was a fun 2 minutes
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#184 | LeonhartFour | Posted 11/28/2011 9:03:30 PM | message detail

From: FateStayAlbion | #182
Phoenix couldn't even hold onto the lead for more than 2 minutes... I expected him to lead by the freeze


He still might.
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#185 | transcience | Posted 11/28/2011 9:03:33 PM | message detail
not bad, Phoenix. is this the first real lead change of the contest?
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add the c and back away
iphonesience
#186 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 11/28/2011 9:03:56 PM | message detail
IngmarBirdman | Posted 11/29/2011 12:03:03 AM | message detail
How long was that? 1 minute? Hah.


About 1 minute, 15 seconds.
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#187 | _Regaro_ | Posted 11/28/2011 9:04:24 PM | message detail
PW is doomed once this board vote ends.
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#188 | LeonhartFour | Posted 11/28/2011 9:04:55 PM | message detail

From: transcience | #185
not bad, Phoenix. is this the first real lead change of the contest?


Pretty much, yeah.

We haven't had a match within 55/45 at the freeze yet.
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#189 | FateStayAlbion | Posted 11/28/2011 9:04:56 PM | message detail
transcience posted...
not bad, Phoenix. is this the first real lead change of the contest?

I wouldn't call a lead change 2 minutes in as a "real lead change".
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#190 | Lopen | Posted 11/28/2011 9:05:59 PM | message detail
It's pretty sad that this is by far the best match so far even though I know the lawyers are doomed after the first 5.

The fact that there's any doubt as to the winner is just great.
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#191 | LeonhartFour | Posted 11/28/2011 9:06:15 PM | message detail
#192 | transcience | Posted 11/28/2011 9:06:17 PM | message detail
it only took 40+ matches. what a contest.
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add the c and back away
iphonesience
#193 | XIII_rocks | Posted 11/28/2011 9:06:36 PM | message detail
Down 11 at the freeze.

Best first 5 minutes of the contest so far!
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#194 | WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 11/28/2011 9:07:09 PM | message detail
It only took 40+ matches and Phoenix goddamn Wright to have a match within what, 55-45 at the freeze?
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#195 | FateStayAlbion | Posted 11/28/2011 9:07:10 PM | message detail
Phoenix held up better than I expected there. I'm sure it'll still be like 55-56% Alucard but at least he's looking respectable here.
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#196 | PartOfYourWorld | Posted 11/28/2011 9:07:22 PM | message detail
Last round, Phoenix fell almost 6% from the freeze to the end. If he does that again, then the 55/45 streak obviously continues.
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#197 | JJH777 | Posted 11/28/2011 9:07:22 PM | message detail
Phoenix has got this obviously these are just bracket votes.
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#198 | KamikazePotato | Posted 11/28/2011 9:07:23 PM | message detail
So, Alucard vs. Phoenix 1 v 1? If this ends 55-45 I can see myself taking him. Dracula is a much, much better #2 than Edgeworth.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#199 | AlecTrevelyan006 | Posted 11/28/2011 9:07:53 PM | message detail
#200 | XIII_rocks | Posted 11/28/2011 9:07:54 PM | message detail
I'd laugh if the next update came and Phoenix was up by 10 or something. The entire topic would die of shock. "A...close...match?!"
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