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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1024

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#351 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 11/27/2011 4:03:48 AM | message detail
World of Warcraft is the only PC game we've seen in contests which is a notable anti-vote target, and it isn't out of being a PC game (it's out of affiliation with Activision Blizzard, for those not in the know).

Do you guys think Half-Life 2 would beat Metroid Prime and/or Fallout 3 now, since New Vegas and Other M have come and gone?
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#352 | WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 11/27/2011 4:04:08 AM | message detail
Ok, so which do you guys think is more likely?

Someone other than Link/Ganon wins the contest
At most only one match left is closer than FFIV vs. WaLuigi
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#353 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 11/27/2011 4:07:33 AM | message detail | (edited)
Metroid guys vs. Bosses will likely be within 55-45, unless you guys would take Terra/Kefka over Chris/Wesker.

Wait...yeah, if the FFVI and RE5 guys are set to be equal, how much [percentage] do the Metroid guys get on the Bosses?
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#354 | Oxbridge | Posted 11/27/2011 4:11:38 AM | message detail
WarThaNemesis2 posted...
Ok, so which do you guys think is more likely?

Someone other than Link/Ganon wins the contest
At most only one match left is closer than FFIV vs. WaLuigi


The latter, even though neither will happen.
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#355 | tennisboy213 | Posted 11/27/2011 4:24:20 AM | message detail
What about Chell/Glados against Frog/Magus?
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Anyone who has appeared in a video game should be allowed in the next character battle.
#356 | Safer Sephiroth 777 | Posted 11/27/2011 4:28:52 AM | message detail
No way.Samus/Bosses,Trainers/Figthers,Sora/Dante,Frog/Glados will sure be close.
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#357 | Kotetsu534 | Posted 11/27/2011 4:52:46 AM | message detail
I still maintain you can have Link in the bracket, and have a great contest, without adding other fictional characters, as long as the bracket is given a lot of thought. In other words, if we made the bracket. >.>
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#358 | pjbasis | Posted 11/27/2011 5:40:11 AM | message detail
Cloud's path is really stacked compared to Link's.

I'd take each of his opponents to at least 60-40 the other.
#359 | The_Djoker | Posted 11/27/2011 6:09:09 AM | message detail
#360 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 11/27/2011 6:39:58 AM | message detail
This match means literally nothing. It's not difficult at all to imagine Okami's fanbase largely overlapping with the Zelda fanbase (heck, the game was a commercial failure, so that's my best guess as to where Okami's strength comes from for the most part, plus this wouldn't be the first time Link SFFd a Capcom character!), and then the whole "Link/Ganon is a bad rivalry" thing isn't going to happen because Ammy's rivalry is way, way worse! Now, seeing how Okami fans rarely speak of Orochi, he's probably just the final boss and nothing more. Blah. Ganondorf plays a bigger role in Twilight Princess for crying out loud.

Okay, I guess it means that anti-Link sentiment hasn't shown its head all that much yet, but it could very well do so later on in the contest. So far the Zelda duo has faced:

-Guys from an Activision Blizzard series that isn't even focused on singleplayer (recipe for fodder if I ever saw one!).
-Guys who share the same fanbase.

Can't draw any conclusions from this when Link and Ganon have faced bigger anti-vote targets and the same fanbase.

Okay, but Link faced a Warcraft character last year and did way worse. Well, we'll blame that on...THE RIVALRIES SUCKING EVEN MORE, HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!

I mean Link/Ganon is at least a rivalry that spans a long series, even if Ganon is nothing more than the final boss in most of those games. People aren't going to start "bad rivalry anti-voting" it against Warcraft and Okami rivalries!
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#361 | transcience | Posted 11/27/2011 7:21:29 AM | message detail
I thought that people would have accepted Link as their contest overlord after 10 years. if you want something else, go to a different website. this here is Link country. the voter pool shrinking and the lack of new voters should seal the deal on Link's dominance - the only way to beat him is to replace the voter base and we are clearly not doing that.
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#362 | abdou | Posted 11/27/2011 7:42:28 AM | message detail
Link beasting in US...

still Link is facing a weak opponent with possible SFF

I am interested to see what he gets against Alucard/Dracula compared to his performance against Alucard last contest. That should tell us if he weakened due to the rivalry factor or not.
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#363 | FateStayAlbion | Posted 11/27/2011 8:28:32 AM | message detail
Link should just rise the rest of the day, right? I wonder if he can actually finish over 83% here
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#364 | HaRRicH | Posted 11/27/2011 9:27:34 AM | message detail
Imagine if Nook/Redd got to face Link/Ganon instead...we could have seen our first 90+% thrashing in years!
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#365 | LeonhartFour | Posted 11/27/2011 10:57:11 AM | message detail

From: transcience | #361
I thought that people would have accepted Link as their contest overlord after 10 years. if you want something else, go to a different website. this here is Link country. the voter pool shrinking and the lack of new voters should seal the deal on Link's dominance - the only way to beat him is to replace the voter base and we are clearly not doing that.


Like I said, I don't really care if Link wins if the rest of the contest wins. I'm just stating that Link is a boring character in these contests now. He's not interesting to watch because he's not as ridiculously strong as he used to be, but his closest competition has gotten even weaker, so it's not like he's threatened there either.
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#366 | LeonhartFour | Posted 11/27/2011 11:00:39 AM | message detail

From: creativename | #330
Retiring him would be pointless. So we'd have a new fake "winner"...so what?

Also the entire purpose is to draw votes. More popular characters draw more votes! Who draws more votes than Link? The 4-way Link poll was one of the highest draws ever - and it was JUST LINK.

This is a popularity contest. Taking away the most popular character is completely senseless. I hate the LAW too, but hey - the purpose of this contest is to draw voters to see ads to make the site $$$. Eliminating the best vote draws won't help this.


And yet CJayC had no problem removing the 3-4 most popular characters in these Character Battles two years in a row to make for a more interesting bracket because he realized that it's NOT just about drawing votes. Who cares if this contest draws 100,000 votes per match if every single match is 60/40 or worse? It'd still be a terrible contest, whether we get 30,000 votes or 300,000 votes. The quality of the matches is what matters.

And you can say removing the strongest character makes "winning" said contest less significant, but I honestly couldn't care less about that. Unless something really weird happens, Link is essentially incapable of having exciting matches anymore. And that's a bad thing for these contests.
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#367 | LeonhartFour | Posted 11/27/2011 11:01:40 AM | message detail

From: Lopen | #327
I honestly don't think people care about the rivalries at all, and are just voting for the more "deserving" rivalry, which is usually the oldest one. DK vs K. Rool and Sonic vs Robotnik to me kinda throws out that people are actually rating on the quality of rivalry here-- at least, not in the sense that they care about the rivalry.


The problem is that you actually think Kirby/Meta Knight is a good rivalry!
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#368 | red sox 777 | Posted 11/27/2011 11:09:30 AM | message detail | (edited)
Who cares if this contest draws 100,000 votes per match if every single match is 60/40 or worse?

The owner of the site cares, that's who! And Link is not the one making every match in this contest 60/40 or worse. He doesn't have those kinds of powers.

And also, all of us care about the votals, or at least almost all of us have expressed dismay at the low votals.

And what I care about even more than votals is strength. Who cares who wins a match between two fodder characters? It could finish 50.01-49.99 with 10 lead changes and it still would barely interest me. Because I don't care who wins. On the other hand, I care a lot if Crono can get 46% on Samus instead of 45%. I care if Squall can get 43% on Snake instead of 41%. And I care if Cloud can put 48% on Link instead of 47%.
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2002 Link, 2003 Cloud, 2004 Link, 2005 Link, 2006 Link, 2008 Link, 2010 Link, 2011 Cloud.
Link 6, Cloud 2
#369 | LeonhartFour | Posted 11/27/2011 11:07:24 AM | message detail
Yes, the site's owners would obviously care, and yes, the site has that ulterior motive.

But for us, the goal of this contest is not "to draw votes." That's the only thing Link is good for in these contests anymore.
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#370 | charmander6000 | Posted 11/27/2011 11:07:45 AM | message detail
Removing Link won't make the contest any better unless you're one of those people that feel we must have a debatable winner every contest and even then after a few Link-less brackets it'll be someone else always winning.
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/Rivalry%20BOP.xls
Rivalry Rumble: 43/48 Today: Link/Ganondorf
#371 | LeonhartFour | Posted 11/27/2011 11:09:30 AM | message detail
Removing Link from the contest doesn't automatically make it better, no. I never said that.

But Link's contribution to a quality contest is very limited at this point. He satisfies those who want matches to have lots of votes and those who want him to win all the time, every time.

But that's about it.
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#372 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 11/27/2011 11:12:31 AM | message detail
I'd really love to have a regular character battle again, but without Link. Especially after the last contest, where Snake beat Sephiroth, and both he and Samus gave Cloud a good match. Cloud would still be the strong favorite and would likely win, but it wouldn't seem outlandish at all to take Mario, Snake, or given excellent placement even someone like Missingno. And I'm all for a final match where Link pummels the winner into the ground and shows how f***ing strong he still is.

It'd be interesting just to see how the lower voting pool and the changing demographics affects matches. We're actually getting some strong new characters like Shepard and Ezio, and Square's big stars are weakening while its weaker ones are finding new life. Plus there's still a lot of potential to mine from the various Pokemon characters.

I think there's a lot of interesting stuff to do with another regular character contest, especially with Link gone. Hopefully we'll actually get one soon, or a straight-up games contest. Enough time has passed that we don't need another gimmick (though 12-hour matches are still pretty great).
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#373 | red sox 777 | Posted 11/27/2011 11:12:35 AM | message detail
Yes, the site's owners would obviously care, and yes, the site has that ulterior motive.

But for us, the goal of this contest is not "to draw votes." That's the only thing Link is good for in these contests anymore.


We're not the ones running these contests, and their primary purpose is not to entertain Board 8. Site-wide, the voters probably enjoy having Link in the contests- if they didn't, surely they'd have stopped voting for him by now?
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2002 Link, 2003 Cloud, 2004 Link, 2005 Link, 2006 Link, 2008 Link, 2010 Link, 2011 Cloud.
Link 6, Cloud 2
#374 | charmander6000 | Posted 11/27/2011 11:16:04 AM | message detail
But you can say that about other characters. Several fodder characters are fed to elite characters every year in the first round and every round there's usually matches where one character doesn't have a chance.
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/Rivalry%20BOP.xls
Rivalry Rumble: 43/48 Today: Link/Ganondorf
#375 | red sox 777 | Posted 11/27/2011 11:17:08 AM | message detail
But Link's contribution to a quality contest is very limited at this point. He satisfies those who want matches to have lots of votes and those who want him to win all the time, every time.

Link gives FFVII fans something to cheer for. And as the 2nd largest fanbase on the site, that's pretty important. What are Cloud fans supposed to cheer for with Link gone? That Cloud won't get upset by Snake/Samus? That's lame, and not fun. It's a matchup with almost zero upside, and massive downside. Much like Crono/Missingno. You bet I was angry when Mario was removed from the bracket in 2006- because how was Crono supposed to beat him then? The best consolation prize Crono could get was to win a thoroughly debased main bracket, but even that would not even get him a heads up match with Mario or one of Clinkeroth to prove his strength.
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2002 Link, 2003 Cloud, 2004 Link, 2005 Link, 2006 Link, 2008 Link, 2010 Link, 2011 Cloud.
Link 6, Cloud 2
#376 | LeonhartFour | Posted 11/27/2011 11:17:09 AM | message detail

From: charmander6000 | #374
But you can say that about other characters. Several fodder characters are fed to elite characters every year in the first round and every round there's usually matches where one character doesn't have a chance.


And I've said for years that characters like Guybrush Threepwood are a waste of space and shouldn't be in contests.
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#377 | LeonhartFour | Posted 11/27/2011 11:18:29 AM | message detail | (edited)

From: red sox 777 | #375
Link gives FFVII fans something to cheer for.


I'm an FFVII fan.

No, he doesn't.

It almost feels like you honestly don't understand the mindset of other people. You talk like everyone must feel the same way you do when you talk about this.
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#378 | charmander6000 | Posted 11/27/2011 11:18:02 AM | message detail
The winner of a Link-less bracket would either be Cloud or Mario with Solid Snake having a small chance due to MGS fading into the shadows.
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/Rivalry%20BOP.xls
Rivalry Rumble: 43/48 Today: Link/Ganondorf
#379 | LeonhartFour | Posted 11/27/2011 11:20:06 AM | message detail
I honestly don't care if Cloud wins the contest without beating Link. I really don't. I guess I just don't have enough "personal pride" invested in these characters to care.
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#380 | red sox 777 | Posted 11/27/2011 11:21:17 AM | message detail
It almost feels like you honestly don't understand the mindset of other people. You talk like everyone must feel the same way you do when you talk about this.

Not everyone, and probably not a majority on this board, but some people do feel like I do. So you should understand why I want Link to stay in the contests. And I maintain that people significantly underestimate the probability that Link loses any given contest, so that a good number of people would feel differently if they were considering the actual probability. And the majority of casuals probably are content with Link in there every year.
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2002 Link, 2003 Cloud, 2004 Link, 2005 Link, 2006 Link, 2008 Link, 2010 Link, 2011 Cloud.
Link 6, Cloud 2
#381 | ZFS | Posted 11/27/2011 11:23:13 AM | message detail | (edited)
On the other hand, I care a lot if Crono can get 46% on Samus instead of 45%. I care if Squall can get 43% on Snake instead of 41%. And I care if Cloud can put 48% on Link instead of 47%.

You are probably the only one who feels this way about doing a percentage better than expected in a loss.
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#382 | LeonhartFour | Posted 11/27/2011 11:23:28 AM | message detail
I understand why people want Link in contests. The majority of people don't care one way or the other, I would wager. If there's a contest, they'll vote in it. That's basically the feeling I get whenever we have those pre-contest polls that ask people what they think about entering the contest or whatever.
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#383 | AlecTrevelyan006 | Posted 11/27/2011 11:29:46 AM | message detail
If Link is taken out, Zelda will win because DRONES.
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#384 | LeonhartFour | Posted 11/27/2011 11:30:31 AM | message detail
Thankfully, that didn't happen in 2005 or 2006!

Although some people were silly enough to bet their accounts on Ganondorf winning without Link in the bracket...!
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#385 | charmander6000 | Posted 11/27/2011 11:34:42 AM | message detail
But Twilight Princess was going to be the game of the forever.
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/Rivalry%20BOP.xls
Rivalry Rumble: 43/48 Today: Link/Ganondorf
#386 | red sox 777 | Posted 11/27/2011 11:34:43 AM | message detail
IMO the most important thing for making contests interesting is simple strength. People talk about bracket design and stuff like that, but all of it is pretty insignificant next to strength. We can't create good matches through bracket design, because if we can set up close matches, then that means they are predictable, since we were the ones who set them up. But if they're unpredictable, then we can't set them up to be close. Look through contest history, and you'll find that most of our best matches were not matches that were expected to be good before the contest.

The best way a bracket designer has of actually producing interest matches is to make the field as strong as possible. This maximizes the number of people who care about each match. Contests with weak fields like the Villains Contest ended up very boring. If you want to cut characters to make the contest more interesting, I suggest we start with fodder. Followed by low midcarders. Then midcarders and near-elites from big series with lots of representatives like Zelda/FF/Mario. The very last to go should be Noble Niners.
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2002 Link, 2003 Cloud, 2004 Link, 2005 Link, 2006 Link, 2008 Link, 2010 Link, 2011 Cloud.
Link 6, Cloud 2
#387 | LeonhartFour | Posted 11/27/2011 11:37:35 AM | message detail | (edited)
I can agree with that assessment. The stronger the field is, the better.

But when one guy is out of reach of the rest of the field, that doesn't make the contest better.

And you can throw all sort of meaningless and misleading statistics at me to tell me Link isn't out of reach of the rest of the field, but he just is.
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#388 | red sox 777 | Posted 11/27/2011 11:40:53 AM | message detail
He is pretty far out of reach if you want a decent chance of him losing. But all the 1% chance of losing talk is absurd. 10-20% sounds about right for a normal contest, whether you think that is too small is up to you.
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2002 Link, 2003 Cloud, 2004 Link, 2005 Link, 2006 Link, 2008 Link, 2010 Link, 2011 Cloud.
Link 6, Cloud 2
#389 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 11/27/2011 11:45:10 AM | message detail

From: red sox 777 | #386
IMO the most important thing for making contests interesting is simple strength. People talk about bracket design and stuff like that, but all of it is pretty insignificant next to strength. We can't create good matches through bracket design, because if we can set up close matches, then that means they are predictable, since we were the ones who set them up. But if they're unpredictable, then we can't set them up to be close. Look through contest history, and you'll find that most of our best matches were not matches that were expected to be good before the contest.

The best way a bracket designer has of actually producing interest matches is to make the field as strong as possible. This maximizes the number of people who care about each match. Contests with weak fields like the Villains Contest ended up very boring. If you want to cut characters to make the contest more interesting, I suggest we start with fodder. Followed by low midcarders. Then midcarders and near-elites from big series with lots of representatives like Zelda/FF/Mario. The very last to go should be Noble Niners.


Let's have a contest where Link is the only entrant.
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#390 | swirIdude | Posted 11/27/2011 11:47:46 AM | message detail

From: Not_Wylvane | #389
Let's have a contest where Link is the only entrant.


That's what we have every year!
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#391 | red sox 777 | Posted 11/27/2011 11:52:06 AM | message detail
Let's have a contest where Link is the only entrant.

(1) OOT Adult Link
(16) SSB Link
(8) Toon Link (Brawl)
(9) SS Link
(5) Original Link
(12) SSBM Link
(4) TP Link
(13) LA Link
(3) OOT Young Link
(14) SMRPG Link
(6) CD-I Link
(11) Dark Link
(7) WW Link
(10) OOT/MM Young Link
(2) LTTP Link
(15) SSBB Adult Link

12-hour matches until the finals, which is 24 hours. Contest starts on Christmas, ends with the final on New Year's Day. Not bad for a holiday mini-contest, no?
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2002 Link, 2003 Cloud, 2004 Link, 2005 Link, 2006 Link, 2008 Link, 2010 Link, 2011 Cloud.
Link 6, Cloud 2
#392 | LeonhartFour | Posted 11/27/2011 11:52:10 AM | message detail

From: Not_Wylvane | #389
Let's have a contest where Link is the only entrant.


http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3308

A whole contest of this

yes
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#393 | The Mana Sword | Posted 11/27/2011 11:52:59 AM | message detail
Look how many votes that poll took in!

If you people want higher votals, you need more Link.
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#394 | red sox 777 | Posted 11/27/2011 11:54:01 AM | message detail
And you people want Link to lose. Link lost 3 times in that one poll! 3 times in one day. That's 1 more than all those other characters have managed to do to him in 9 years! Clearly if you want Link to lose, Link-only contests are your only option.
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2002 Link, 2003 Cloud, 2004 Link, 2005 Link, 2006 Link, 2008 Link, 2010 Link, 2011 Cloud.
Link 6, Cloud 2
#395 | XIII_rocks | Posted 11/27/2011 11:56:04 AM | message detail

From: AlecTrevelyan006 | #333
Can we take Link out of the bracket and just have him face the champion every year to see if he "retains the heavyweight title" so to speak?

I mean, yeah, I'd expect him to win every year, but in the offchance that some character shoots up or a joke gets a crazy bandwagon going, maybe they beat him. And if not? It's just one 24 hour match at the end of the contest, we don't have to feed anybody to Link along the way.


This is what I was thinking. Just seems like a fair way to look at it.
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#396 | red sox 777 | Posted 11/27/2011 11:57:56 AM | message detail
In other news, today's match has 50% more votes than yesterday's match. It looks like we really do need Link to salvage any kind of votals here.
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2002 Link, 2003 Cloud, 2004 Link, 2005 Link, 2006 Link, 2008 Link, 2010 Link, 2011 Cloud.
Link 6, Cloud 2
#397 | The Mana Sword | Posted 11/27/2011 11:58:53 AM | message detail
Honestly, we should probably just rename the site LinkFAQs and only cover Zelda games.
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#398 | XIII_rocks | Posted 11/27/2011 11:59:14 AM | message detail
Who cares who wins a match between two fodder characters? It could finish 50.01-49.99 with 10 lead changes and it still would barely interest me.

What the hell
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#399 | LeonhartFour | Posted 11/27/2011 12:00:55 PM | message detail
#400 | The Mana Sword | Posted 11/27/2011 12:02:11 PM | message detail
I'll be honest I don't even remember that match happening!
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I wish I could wear skirts and dresses :( -GMUN