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GameFAQs Contests

Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1024

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#251 | red sox 777 | Posted 11/26/2011 10:09:07 PM | message detail
But...but...DRONES!!! The Ganon/Sephiroth dynamic probably won't matter as much because the drone mentality will discount it.

Zeldadrones don't actually exist, or at least no more than with other franchises. And probably a good deal less. Majora's Mask is about as far from OOT as Chrono Cross is from Chrono Trigger. Ganondorf is as far from Link as.......Peach is from Mario. Probably farther, actually.

Zelda fans are discerning and smart voters who genuinely think Link is a wonderful character. Any result that can be explained with drones is better explained with the much simpler explanation that Link/LoZ are just that popular.

Link scoring 71% on another Noble Niner is an 'okay' performance? If Link didn't look good in 2010, nobody did.

Yes, it was only an okay performance, considering said Noble Niner lost twice to non-Noble Niners the previous year and had good reason to suffer SFF against Link. And Cloud had even gotten 66% on Sonic before, when Sonic was stronger, and without the benefit of any SFF! Pre-contest, I'd probably have called Link's performance against Sonic outright disappointing instead of merely okay, but it was a big relief after the non-blowouts of the first 3 rounds.
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2002 Link, 2003 Cloud, 2004 Link, 2005 Link, 2006 Link, 2008 Link, 2010 Link, 2011 Cloud.
Link 6, Cloud 2
#252 | ZFS | Posted 11/26/2011 10:09:42 PM | message detail
I think you're overestimating how well fictional characters would do on this site, especially against Link. Maybe I'm wrong, who knows!
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peace comes from within
#253 | LeonhartFour | Posted 11/26/2011 10:09:49 PM | message detail

From: red sox 777 | #251
smart voters who genuinely think Link is a wonderful character.


does not compute
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"Why must we always choose between certain death and probable death?"
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#254 | vcharon | Posted 11/26/2011 10:11:12 PM | message detail
Some people just need to believe Link isn't a 100% lock to win contests to keep themselves in high spirits around here, I guess. I'm fine with it personally, remember the "it's the journey not the destination" or whatever the hell Bacon said last time.
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#255 | creativename | Posted 11/26/2011 10:13:45 PM | message detail

From: LeonhartFour | #1205
Well, I was talking strictly normal Character Battles, because Bacon doesn't seem to want to give us anything broader than that.


Think with the miserable failure this contest has been, the odds of Bacon becoming more liberal are higher now. At the moment they add nothing to site traffic.

Polls with Batman, Wolverine, Vader, Han Solo, etc. would draw a *lot* of outside attention. Much like L-Block did.

Also he did allow Hitler and Zeus this contest. That might be a sign of things to come.

And I mean really, where else does he even have to go? If we're having another of these what's it going to be, and why would anyone care?

From: General_Zimbad | #1206
If there was a FFVII remake I would have cloud winning the bracket. I think that's the only way link will lose.


I think the hype alone would make him a lot stronger, ala Twilight Princess being best game ever before release.

Also it would probably get rid of a ton of those anti-votes. Because suddenly Square would be doing something that people actually *wanted* them to do. Square has been pissing off Square fans for ages.

But of course - there's s prerequisite: the remake would have to look good. Couldn't be one of those, "man that looks disappointing" things.
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#256 | LeonhartFour | Posted 11/26/2011 10:13:45 PM | message detail
Oh, I can still enjoy contests even knowing Link will almost certainly win. That's not really an issue for me.

Link's just boring to me now though.
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#257 | ZFS | Posted 11/26/2011 10:16:29 PM | message detail
Yeah, Link is pretty boring as a contest entrant. It doesn't bother me that he'll always win the contest, but he doesn't bring much excitement in any of his matches. It tends to be a wasted...however many hours the matches last for. I guess you could say the same thing about Cloud, but at least he has the awful board vote going for him!
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peace comes from within
#258 | KamikazePotato | Posted 11/26/2011 10:17:29 PM | message detail
It's completely baffling to me that there are still people that want Link in these contests. There is not a single reason for it.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#259 | LeonhartFour | Posted 11/26/2011 10:17:40 PM | message detail
Yeah, Cloud still has a level of intrigue to him, and there's still this inkling that he could lose to someone other than Link. Those matches against Samus and Snake were pretty exciting for those first few hours.
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#260 | creativename | Posted 11/26/2011 10:18:25 PM | message detail

From: KamikazePotato | #1208
Does Joker win that match at all?


insert_Joker_not_sure_if_serious_gif_here >_>

Joker would absolutely rock Ganon. If you think otherwise I'm not sure what to even say? I would be you pretty much anything Joker disposes of Ganon easily. It's the Joker.

Some people are just madly underestimating fictional characters here. As if they've not been in games that sold millions too, or been in $500 million grossing movies. On top of being iconic and beloved.

Joker beating Ganon should not be in question by anyone. The only question there is whether Ganon can maintain some dignity, that's it.
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#261 | red sox 777 | Posted 11/26/2011 10:19:12 PM | message detail
I'm not sure how Link's performances against Mario and Sonic could be considered just "okay". How much stronger could one really expect him to get? He took two of the strongest characters there were and flattened them.

People don't realize how strong Link used to be. Look at what he did in 2004, the last time he was in a 1v1 contest.

88% on CATS
88% on Ganondorf
81% on Yoshi
63% on Crono
67% on Megaman

Keep in mind 2004 Crono and 2004 Megaman were approximately equal to current Mario in strength.....probably stronger actually. And unlike the Mario, MM, and Sonic matches, that 63% on Crono was with zero SFF. Link likely had fairly substantial SFF against Mario and Sonic last year, Mario especially. Now compare with 2010:

80% on Thrall
72% on Alucard
67% on MMX
71% on Luigi
70% on Sonic
64% on Mario

We can see that the two 88% blowouts clearly outclass the first two rounds of 2010. 81% on Yoshi crushes 71% on Luigi. 67% on Megaman 2004 is a lot better than 67% on Megaman X 2010. 63% on Crono 2004 is a good deal better than 64% on Mario 2010 after extensive SFF. Sonic was not impressive for reasons explained earlier.
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2002 Link, 2003 Cloud, 2004 Link, 2005 Link, 2006 Link, 2008 Link, 2010 Link, 2011 Cloud.
Link 6, Cloud 2
#262 | ZFS | Posted 11/26/2011 10:19:52 PM | message detail
Agreed. Between the two, I would sooner expect Cloud to fall to someone he shouldn't before Link. Even if it doesn't actually happen, another high level character making the match exciting is certainly more possible than someone doing the same against Link. All those top tier Nintendo options have a chance since Cloud is so far removed from the Nintendo fanbase. Sephiroth, too.
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peace comes from within
#263 | vcharon | Posted 11/26/2011 10:22:35 PM | message detail
There were basically no blowouts in 2010; I really don't think it has anything to do with Link's strength. It seemed that was just the nature of the polls that year. If you really think that Link is somehow closer to losing now or is getting closer to a loss, you're very wrong.
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#264 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 11/26/2011 10:22:45 PM | message detail
http://www.gamespot.com/greatest-video-game-villain/vote/battle-hub/index.html?battle_id=57

The Joker only barely broke 55% in GameSpot's Villain contest, so although The Joker might lose to Ganon on GameFAQs, he should at least be capable of breaking 40% on Ganon. I don't see The Joker being that much weaker on GameFAQs compared to GameSpot.
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Popular at school, but not as cool as BlAcK TuRtLe, Guru Champ!
#265 | vcharon | Posted 11/26/2011 10:23:46 PM | message detail
I'd be hesitant using Gamespot's contests to draw any conclusions for our polls.
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#266 | red sox 777 | Posted 11/26/2011 10:23:46 PM | message detail
But how exciting would it really be if Samus or Snake upset Cloud? It wouldn't hold a candle to someone upsetting Link. Link is like the Yankees- you need them to play, so that they can be defeated. Because they're worth defeating.
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2002 Link, 2003 Cloud, 2004 Link, 2005 Link, 2006 Link, 2008 Link, 2010 Link, 2011 Cloud.
Link 6, Cloud 2
#267 | LeonhartFour | Posted 11/26/2011 10:24:06 PM | message detail
Oh right, yesterday's chart:

Time | Chrisker | Bosses | Votes | Demographic
EBV | 40.03% | 59.97% | 582 | (0:00-0:05)
PHV | 41.84% | 58.16% | 4331 | (0:00-1:00)
FNV | 42.93% | 57.07% | 10216 | (1:00-6:00)
BSV | 44.24% | 55.76% | 4392 | (6:00-9:00)
DSV | 42.78% | 57.22% | 12077 | (9:00-14:30)
ASV | 44.50% | 55.50% | 12280 | (14:30-22:00)
SNV | 44.23% | 55.77% | 2399 | (22:00-24:00)

MGS has a better board vote and a worse day vote than RE. We knew this already. Nothing out of the ordinary here.
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#268 | vcharon | Posted 11/26/2011 10:24:52 PM | message detail
The Yankees actually can lose, so there's a point to have them play.
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#269 | ZFS | Posted 11/26/2011 10:25:25 PM | message detail
You can keep holding on to the idea that Link can lose, but it isn't going to happen. :)
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peace comes from within
#270 | LeonhartFour | Posted 11/26/2011 10:25:26 PM | message detail

From: red sox 777 | #266
But how exciting would it really be if Samus or Snake upset Cloud?


I'd hate it if Samus beat Cloud, but you better believe we'd fill up 15 stats topics the day it happened.
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#271 | KamikazePotato | Posted 11/26/2011 10:25:44 PM | message detail
I wouldn't even care if Link loses at this point. It's not worth years and years of putting him into contests hoping for a fluke.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#272 | vcharon | Posted 11/26/2011 10:26:34 PM | message detail
83% flat for Link now.
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#273 | red sox 777 | Posted 11/26/2011 10:26:44 PM | message detail
There were basically no blowouts in 2010; I really don't think it has anything to do with Link's strength. It seemed that was just the nature of the polls that year. If you really think that Link is somehow closer to losing now or is getting closer to a loss, you're very wrong.

It had to do with all of Clinkeroth getting weaker. The bad performances in early rounds persisted to later rounds. Link was no closer to losing, because Cloud fell more. But it was not the case that Link was getting stronger, as people kept saying. While predicting that he was going to 60/40 Cloud. That those some of those same people were unhappy that Link/Cloud was closer than they expected makes me feel that some people just want Link gone from the contest regardless of his actual invincibility.
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2002 Link, 2003 Cloud, 2004 Link, 2005 Link, 2006 Link, 2008 Link, 2010 Link, 2011 Cloud.
Link 6, Cloud 2
#274 | KamikazePotato | Posted 11/26/2011 10:28:09 PM | message detail
I would like Link gone, yes, very much so.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#275 | AlecTrevelyan006 | Posted 11/26/2011 10:28:11 PM | message detail

From: KamikazePotato | #258
It's completely baffling to me that there are still people that want Link in these contests. There is not a single reason for it.


I don't get how people don't get why people still want Link to win.

Think of it like sports. Have you ever rooted AGAINST the team you like because "oh, they've won too much lately"?

If people liked Link enough to vote for him the first time, why would they change their vote because "he's won already"? I mean, for each individual person, that might influence them to change their vote if the match was REALLY close for them on the personal, micro level. Like if a voter felt Snake > Link > Samus > Mario or something, they might change it. But most voters aren't going to suddenly vote for Crono, who they like less, just because Link has won.

For any individual match between non-fodder characters, the vast majority of voters have a clear preference as to who they want to vote for. Those people for whom it is very close, and the people who don't have any preference might change their vote, but the vast majority don't feel that way, so why the hell would they change?
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#276 | KamikazePotato | Posted 11/26/2011 10:28:29 PM | message detail
Have you ever rooted AGAINST the team you like because "oh, they've won too much lately"?

Yes.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#277 | AlecTrevelyan006 | Posted 11/26/2011 10:28:40 PM | message detail
That said, Link winning is pretty boring.
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#278 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 11/26/2011 10:29:39 PM | message detail
vcharon | Posted 11/27/2011 1:24:52 AM | message detail
The Yankees actually can lose, so there's a point to have them play.


The GameFAQs contests are nothing like baseball at all. Baseball involves skill, not popularity or strength. Any baseball team is capable of losing to any other team, thanks to a combination of factors like offense, defense, and pitching.
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#279 | KamikazePotato | Posted 11/26/2011 10:30:21 PM | message detail
And while I can see why casual voters wouldn't care about Link always winning (although they seem to care a lot about FF7 always winning those two times it actually did, nice double standard there), contest regulars have no excuse for wanting something that will always make contests worse.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#280 | red sox 777 | Posted 11/26/2011 10:32:02 PM | message detail
The Yankees actually can lose, so there's a point to have them play.

Link needs 21 more championships to match the Yankees. And yes, the Yankees have won 6 of 8 world series before. Including 5 in a row, which Link has yet to do.
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2002 Link, 2003 Cloud, 2004 Link, 2005 Link, 2006 Link, 2008 Link, 2010 Link, 2011 Cloud.
Link 6, Cloud 2
#281 | LeonhartFour | Posted 11/26/2011 10:32:07 PM | message detail
I'd never get tired of Squall winning if he were the most popular character on this site. Heck, I don't know if I'd ever really get tired of Cloud winning because I like him so much, even if he's not my absolute favorite character (although in his case, I could probably be persuaded to vote someone like Snake over him for the sake of an upset).

But I could certainly understand the sentiment of people wanting him taken out of the contest because he's no longer an interesting entrant.
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"Why must we always choose between certain death and probable death?"
"I'm in an epic battle to the death, FIGURE IT OUT YOURSELF!"
#282 | vcharon | Posted 11/26/2011 10:34:05 PM | message detail
I'm not... I can't... even respond to that. I'm sure you can see the difference between Link and the Yankees and understand the truth.
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#283 | AlecTrevelyan006 | Posted 11/26/2011 10:34:35 PM | message detail

From: KamikazePotato | #276
Have you ever rooted AGAINST the team you like because "oh, they've won too much lately"?

Yes.


Well, I will go out on a limb and say you're in the minority on that one among people who care about sports and such.
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##Alec
#284 | creativename | Posted 11/26/2011 10:35:07 PM | message detail

From: AlecTrevelyan006 | #1355Think of it like sports. Have you ever rooted AGAINST the team you like because "oh, they've won too much lately"?


Actually I was a huge Yankees fan, but after they won 4 of 5 series I wanted the Mariners to beat them in the 2001 ALCS. Simply because the Mariners were the better team and deserved it more, and I felt like "my boys" had gotten enough credit and glory.

Seattle won the most games ever, but because they lost in the ALCS meant they were overlooked as one of the great teams. I find that very sad. Nobody remembers a team that deserves to be truly remembered.

I rooted for the Yankees against the Diamondbacks of course, but the Mariners were a very likable bunch and legitimately the best team in the league by far.
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#285 | LeonhartFour | Posted 11/26/2011 10:35:12 PM | message detail
Although it does seem kinda clear that Link is getting anti-voted more these days. He's already risen 4% since the freeze.

But it won't matter because FFVII still gets anti-voted more.
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#286 | KamikazePotato | Posted 11/26/2011 10:35:27 PM | message detail
red sox, I know you're making statements you know are ridiculous in order to defend Link, but let's be serious. Link makes contests worse. You can't deny it at this point. Ignore how much you like him. From an objective standpoint, Link hurts contests. There is not a single way he helps.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#287 | red sox 777 | Posted 11/26/2011 10:39:39 PM | message detail
I'm not... I can't... even respond to that. I'm sure you can see the difference between Link and the Yankees and understand the truth.

Yes, the difference is that I like Link and I dislike the Yankees*. As a Red Sox fan, I would have felt horrible if the Yankees had decided to just stop playing before 2004. Because then there would be no way to ever beat them.

*And yes, I understand that Link has a higher theoretical chance of winning a character battle going into one than the Yankees had of winning a WS, even during their dynasties. Though the Yankees were always ridiculously good at winning more championships than the probabilities said they had any business winning.
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2002 Link, 2003 Cloud, 2004 Link, 2005 Link, 2006 Link, 2008 Link, 2010 Link, 2011 Cloud.
Link 6, Cloud 2
#288 | KamikazePotato | Posted 11/26/2011 10:41:54 PM | message detail
Sports are far, far more variable than GameFAQs is. GameFAQs is, in a word, stagnant. It has taken the site half a decade to come around to the whole 'western gaming' thing. This is the only site on the internet where Crono is anything but a memory. Comparing GameFAQs to sports is misleading in every way.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#289 | red sox 777 | Posted 11/26/2011 10:42:05 PM | message detail
red sox, I know you're making statements you know are ridiculous in order to defend Link, but let's be serious. Link makes contests worse. You can't deny it at this point. Ignore how much you like him. From an objective standpoint, Link hurts contests. There is not a single way he helps.

Tonight has been the 2nd most interesting match of the contest for me so far, behind Snake/Crono, so I disagree. And it's generated probably the most interesting to me discussion we've had in this topic all contest, so there's another reason. Though of course, that's mainly the fault of this contest having zero close matches and zero upsets.
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2002 Link, 2003 Cloud, 2004 Link, 2005 Link, 2006 Link, 2008 Link, 2010 Link, 2011 Cloud.
Link 6, Cloud 2
#290 | XIII_rocks | Posted 11/26/2011 10:43:37 PM | message detail

From: AlecTrevelyan006 | #283
Well, I will go out on a limb and say you're in the minority on that one among people who care about sports and such.


I do this a decent amount in leagues or games I have zero investment in.


Also I can see the similarities between characters in these things and sports teams every now and then, but not most of the time. Link's dominance doesn't piss me off in the way Man Utd do. I just find it kind of lame and boring, especially since he's mute. That said, I might be more annoyed if it was Cloud on top.

I have compared Snake beating Sephiroth a couple of years back to one of those "ok, what, stuff this awesome doesn't happen" kind of incidents like Tottenham finally qualifying for the Champions League, so yeah.
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#291 | LeonhartFour | Posted 11/26/2011 10:43:49 PM | message detail

From: red sox 777 | #289
Tonight has been the 2nd most interesting match of the contest for me so far, behind Snake/Crono, so I disagree.


Well, you're fairly alone in this, and I think you're mostly aware of it.
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#292 | IngmarBirdman | Posted 11/26/2011 10:45:20 PM | message detail
People don't realize how strong Link used to be. Look at what he did in 2004, the last time he was in a 1v1 contest.

Between 2004 and 2010 the entire Noble Nine weakened, a little bit. 2004 is the same year Snake destroyed his first opponent with 94% and both Sonic and Mega Man were above 80%. Seph had 86% on someone ... I doubt many would give him that much today in a poll vs nothing.

Granted 2004 had some crap-tacular characters which helped the blowout factor, but the point is whatever Link has lost over the years, everyone else has lost just as much. He's still basically untouchable, and his beating of Sonic in 2010 was far better than okay. It confirmed his strength, which some might have doubted given the trend that year of Noble Niners underperforming.
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#293 | KamikazePotato | Posted 11/26/2011 10:47:42 PM | message detail
So your two most interesting matches of the contest are a predictable result between Snake and Crono, and Link blowing someone out?

That's really just not right on any level.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#294 | LeonhartFour | Posted 11/26/2011 10:52:39 PM | message detail
My favorite match was watching Squall rise after the freeze several percent

rise to the heavens like a beautiful Blasting Zone my boy Squall
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#295 | red sox 777 | Posted 11/26/2011 10:53:58 PM | message detail
Between 2004 and 2010 the entire Noble Nine weakened, a little bit. 2004 is the same year Snake destroyed his first opponent with 94% and both Sonic and Mega Man were above 80%. Seph had 86% on someone ... I doubt many would give him that much today in a poll vs nothing.

Granted 2004 had some crap-tacular characters which helped the blowout factor, but the point is whatever Link has lost over the years, everyone else has lost just as much. He's still basically untouchable, and his beating of Sonic in 2010 was far better than okay. It confirmed his strength, which some might have doubted given the trend that year of Noble Niners underperforming.


Nope, Snake is a lot stronger now than he was in 2004. Mario is a little stronger than in 2004. Samus is probably a bit stronger than in 2004.

The reason those matches were disappointing for Link last year is that Link did not lose his strength gradually over the years. While it's hard to tell with 4-ways, battle royales, and 1v1 matches against no one but Cloud, Link appeared to be at or above his 2004 level all the way through 2008. Then there was a change in 2010. For reference, Link scored higher against Mario twice in 2008 than 2010.

It's true that Link has a very high probability of winning any given character battle. You might be able to argue that it's high enough that he makes the contest worse, though I don't think so. He probably has a 10-20% chance of losing, and that's high enough to keep playing.

Now, for this contest, it's much higher than that, because it's a new, different, format, which has reason to help Cloud/Seph.
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2002 Link, 2003 Cloud, 2004 Link, 2005 Link, 2006 Link, 2008 Link, 2010 Link, 2011 Cloud.
Link 6, Cloud 2
#296 | The Mana Sword | Posted 11/26/2011 10:54:14 PM | message detail
The people demand more Link
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#297 | KamikazePotato | Posted 11/26/2011 10:56:13 PM | message detail
There's a difference between 'favorite match' and 'interesting match'. If your favorite match is a character you like doing well expectedly, neato. If that is also the most interesting match, then you basically just admitted that you don't view the contests as anything but a vehicle for your favorite characters.

Which is fine, but someone who has that mentality shouldn't be judging how to make future contests better.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#298 | red sox 777 | Posted 11/26/2011 11:00:53 PM | message detail
There's a difference between 'favorite match' and 'interesting match'. If your favorite match is a character you like doing well expectedly, neato. If that is also the most interesting match, then you basically just admitted that you don't view the contests as anything but a vehicle for your favorite characters.

Which is fine, but someone who has that mentality shouldn't be judging how to make future contests better.


Interesting matches answer questions I have about the voterbase. This contest, my biggest questions are:

1. Do voters care about rivalries?
2. How has the site losing half its voters impacted things?

The biggest matches/runs I am interested in, not counting Crono fanboyism, are:

1. Link v. Cloud (by a big margin)
2. Red/Blue to the semifinals
3. Frog/Magus to win their division

Link v. Cloud decides the championship so it's easy to see why it would be the match I care most about. Therefore, every match that tells us stuff about them is important, and this match is better than either of their round 1 matches. There will be much better matches later in the contest.
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2002 Link, 2003 Cloud, 2004 Link, 2005 Link, 2006 Link, 2008 Link, 2010 Link, 2011 Cloud.
Link 6, Cloud 2
#299 | ZFS | Posted 11/26/2011 11:02:06 PM | message detail
I'll grant that 9% can be chalked up to an unknown joke catching on halfway through the contest. Cloud and the rest of the crew can fight over the remaining 1%.
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peace comes from within
#300 | KamikazePotato | Posted 11/26/2011 11:06:53 PM | message detail
Show of hands: if Link loses this contest, would you honestly care? Looking back at how many years of Link winning it took to get to this, the fact that him losing that was either due to a bandwagon/fluke or pairing up #2 and #3 on this site, looking forward in time and seeing nothing but more Zelda titles to keep him strong, and that next year will be business as usual assuming no strange format, would you honestly feel anything over Link losing?

Because I wouldn't. When the only way to beat Link is to change the format or hope for an L-Block, there's no tension, no fun to it. You can't argue or predict that. It's just praying and hoping for the best.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.