GameFAQs Contests
Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1024
The awesome thing about the Yoshi match is that it implies Dante/Riku would've been a 55/45 match in 2006. LOL Dante --- http://www.gifsoup.com/view/593815/frasier-and-niles-dance-o.gif |
 |
But
regardless, the point isn't necessarily that Dante has only had two
chances to win close matches. He's had several chances to look good
against good competition. About the only match he's had where I can say he came out looking better than he did going in was the Vincent match in 2005. --- "Why must we always choose between certain death and probable death?" "I'm in an epic battle to the death, FIGURE IT OUT YOURSELF!" |
more like NOTte --- You know who's sexy? Black Turtle, the 2010 Games Contest Guru Winner, that's who! |
Dante/Sora
isn't debatable because of anything Dante has done, it's debatable
because Sora has crapped the bed the last few years and hasn't had any
releases to prop him up. He peaked in 2006, and it's only been downhill
since then. --- Game of the decade? More like Guru of the decade mirite? |
Sora
looked pretty awesome in 2007 and 2008, and the KH games looked pretty
great in 2009. It's really only the last Character Battle where Sora and
Riku didn't look very good. And Sora's main problem was that he had all night matches. --- http://img.imgcake.com/nio/26leonpngat.png http://img.imgcake.com/nio/daigohadoupnguj.png |
charmander6000 posted... On a side note, IIRC, the GOTD stats, have Metroid Prime doubling Vice City. Yet: http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3467 What happened there? According to the GOTD stats, Metroid Prime should be in an easy 1st place in that poll while Vice City should be in an even more easy 4th. Metroid Prime is well overrated in the stats, Vice City and San Andreas didn't look as good and Metroid Prime was held back by Paper Mario. Also Kingdom Hearts and GTA overperform in 4-ways. Plus Metroid Prime had a rerelease between BGE2009 and GOTD, and there's the possibility of overperforming due to Other M's then-recent release (possibly implying that Half-Life 2 > Metroid Prime > Fallout 3 in an ordinary environment, with Fallout 3 overperforming due to New Vegas and Prime overperforming due to Other M). --- Currently Playing - StarCraft: Brood War |
Match XLI: (1) Link/Ganondorf vs. (4) Amaterasu/Orochi Previous Round Link/Ganondorf – 85.30% Arthas/Illidan – 14.70% Amaterasu/Orochi – 67.12% Tom Nook/Crazy Redd – 32.88% Analysis Last round Link and Ganondorf showed why most people on the board consider them to be the strongest pair of the contest blowing out their opponents with ease while Amaterasu and Orochi looked decent. I don’t think anyone would object to saying Link and Ganondorf had a better performance than Cloud and Sephiroth. Sure you can argue anti-votes and that Lloyd and Kratos are stronger, but at the end of the day Link and Ganondorf looked better. I don’t think anyone is going to give Amaterasu a chance against the big guy. While she has surpassed all of our expectations in terms of strength she isn’t touching a noble nine. In terms of percent we say Amaterasu break 40% on Luigi in the previous contest who then went on to get 28% on Link. SFF looked to be more minimal in that match so that puts Amaterasu at around getting tripled which I feel to be about right. We probably won’t see any effects of having Ganondorf as a teammate until either next round or in the quarterfinals. Right now he adds a bit of strength and some rivalry power, but it’ll be interesting to see how they hold up against a more known rivalry. Amaterasu is not fodder so I don’t see Link breaking 80% here, but a tripling should be around what he’ll go for. charmander6000’s Bracket: Link/Ganondorf > Amaterasu/Orochi charmander6000’s Prediction: Link/Ganondorf wins, 77.11% - 22.89% --- BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/Rivalry%20BOP.xls Rivalry Rumble: 41/46 Today: Big Boss/The Boss |
Feels like a good prediction. --- :> |
compared to Dante getting just barely above 95% on what could be the weakest rivalry in this bracket. How much does this mean, really? Do we know what percentage of the brackets are fun brackets or "if it was up to me" brackets? Isn't that basically why the obvious matches aren't 99.9% but rather 95%+? Also, Square always wins so vote Link. --- "Ovelia ... SPOILERS IN THE KEYWORDS WOOPS" - Vormav |
Sora
performed well against the joke entry this year, but I have to feel
that the craze has died down and simply admit that looking at the vote
totals leads me to believe "no one cares". Even the ralliers that fueled
L-Block and Missingno. don't seem to care, that or those same people
are somehow offended by Hitler. Hard to gather anything from that
result. I'm not totally sold on this being an easy win for Sora, but looking at history it should be. People tend to believe Dante is much more elite than he always ends up being. It doesn't really help Vergil isn't going to add squat to him whereas Sora gets a midcarder. --- :> |
IngmarBirdman | Posted 11/26/2011 9:48:45 PM | message detail How much does this mean, really? Do we know what percentage of the brackets are fun brackets or "if it was up to me" brackets? Isn't that basically why the obvious matches aren't 99.9% but rather 95%+? I'm pretty sure that the prediction percentages also include fun brackets. --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as BlAcK TuRtLe, Guru Champ! |
I will be interested in seeing SKYWARD SWORD Link. I expect a bit of an overperformance here. --- http://img.imgcake.com/nio/51alecpngpa.png -Nio |
Link vs. Ganondorf 80% 12 Amaterasu vs. Orochi 20% 3 TOTAL VOTES 15 --- xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out? GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX |
Link vs. Ganondorf 87.5% 7 Amaterasu vs. Orochi 12.5% 1 --- Gamefaqs' #1 Testicle Bettor: Proud owner of many testes http://img688.imageshack.us/img688/6553/alec.png |
poor Ammy.. this will get uglyyyy --- ~ Rivalry Rumble Oracle Challenge ~ Rank - 26th Today's Prediction: Bosses - 59.39% |
This will be bad. --- :> |
Link vs. Ganondorf 76.92% 10 Amaterasu vs. Orochi 23.08% 3 TOTAL VOTES 13 I stopped playing Zelda seconds before I could quick-vote for Link. It just happened. Skyward Sword is MAGIC. --- Yoblazer: http://i33.tinypic.com/ml36gl_th.gif Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world! |
barely over a tripling with a new game under his belt WARNING SALVO --- thelefty for analysis crew 2008 imo -tranny I have a third degree burn in flame-o-nomics -Sir Chris |
80% here we come. --- 2002 Link, 2003 Cloud, 2004 Link, 2005 Link, 2006 Link, 2008 Link, 2010 Link, 2011 Cloud. Link 6, Cloud 2 |
Shaped like a boot to lose to Cloud. Oh yeah, and just watch this Mario. Watch and think how you are going to be humiliated yet again by your king, if Cloud doesn't win that is. --- 2002 Link, 2003 Cloud, 2004 Link, 2005 Link, 2006 Link, 2008 Link, 2010 Link, 2011 Cloud. Link 6, Cloud 2 |
No chance of Link having a legit loss ever again, imo. --- :> |
80% is about as expected. Ammy isn't going to be thrashing Arthas or anything. --- http://raptr.com/badge/cf898f37d9c30ef120ada6c35e636ad3/fs.png http://myanimelist.net/signature/RyanSaotome.png |
Holds him under 80% at the freeze. --- :> |
Ammy isn't going to be thrashing Arthas or anything. Of course she would. She broke 40% against Luigi last contest. --- 2002 Link, 2003 Cloud, 2004 Link, 2005 Link, 2006 Link, 2008 Link, 2010 Link, 2011 Cloud. Link 6, Cloud 2 |
red sox 777 posted... Ammy isn't going to be thrashing Arthas or anything. Of course she would. She broke 40% against Luigi last contest. Even with Arthas losing to Kefka last contest, the stats don't have her getting more than 58% on Arthas. Going from 85% to 80% is within that range. --- http://raptr.com/badge/cf898f37d9c30ef120ada6c35e636ad3/fs.png http://myanimelist.net/signature/RyanSaotome.png |
FateStayAlbion posted... Ammy isn't going to be thrashing Arthas or anything. http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3796 http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3278 http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3807 http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3756 It'd be a safe win. --- http://img812.imageshack.us/img812/3492/eponaharr.jpg Nominate E P O N A. |
Oh. In that case, no argument. I thought you were saying that Ammy and Arthas were in the same range. --- 2002 Link, 2003 Cloud, 2004 Link, 2005 Link, 2006 Link, 2008 Link, 2010 Link, 2011 Cloud. Link 6, Cloud 2 |
Score-Brackets-% Right 46------233--------98.28 45------186--------79.57 44------482--------70.95 43------515--------41.75 42------783--------37.29 41------997--------33.60 40------1105------31.95 39------1220------30.82 38------1256------33.04 37------1287------37.06 36------1131------33.07 35------1057------36.14 34------949--------39.20 33------810--------35.31 32------698--------35.67 31------611--------36.66 30------477--------33.54 29------405--------32.35 28------331--------34.74 27------259--------36.68 26------175--------34.86 25------129--------26.36 24------112--------31.25 23------78----------35.90 22------61----------40.98 21------39----------20.51 20------33----------39.39 19------18----------44.44 18------15----------33.33 17------8------------25.00 16------10----------20.00 13------5------------20.00 12------3------------33.33 10------4------------50.00 9--------5------------20.00 7--------4------------50.00 5--------3------------33.33 2--------10----------10.00 Omitted scores got it wrong. Finally the prediction percentage drops below 50 for a match. The perfects didn't think it was very difficult. Even ignoring the alts, over 90% of them got the match right which is over 10 percentage points better than the -1s. Overall the top tiers did way better than everyone else. The -2s do nearly 30 percentage points better than the -3s but a lot of this is due to a person with 200 entries messing up the stats there. I wouldn't be surprised if there was also a large group of alts inflating the -1s prediction percentage as well. 3 people fell off the Top 50. SunSteve, CougarCameron and RazorHawk23 did not have Big Boss vs. The Boss winning the match. --- Pokemon VGC2011 US Nationals - 54th place Pokemon VGC2012 NW Regional - 16th place |
Updated Top 10 Top 10 Closest Matches 1. Luigi/Waluigi – 55.28% vs. Cecil Harvey/Golbez – 44.72% - Round 1 – 10.56% 2. Siegfried/Nightmare – 55.68% vs. Ramza Beoulve/Delita Hyral – 44.32% - Round 1 – 11.36% 3. Frog/Magus – 56.13% vs. Raiden/Vamp – 43.87% - Round 1 – 12.26% 4. Phoenix Wright/Miles Edgeworth – 56.56% vs. Gordon Freeman/Dr. Breen – 43.44% - Round 1 – 13.12% 5. Big Boss/The Boss – 56.60% vs. Chris Redfield/Albert Wesker – 43.40% - Round 2 – 13.20% 6. Kirby/Meta Knight – 58.47% vs. Jill Valentine/Nemesis – 41.53% - Round 1 – 16.94% 7. Solid Snake/Liquid Snake – 58.77% vs. Crono/Lavos – 41.23% – Round 1 – 17.54% 8. Chell/GlaDOS – 59.07% vs. Ness/Giygas – 40.93% - Round 1 – 18.14% 9. Ike/Black Knight – 59.42% vs. Conker/Great Mighty Poo – 40.58% - Round 1 – 18.84% 10. Big Boss/The Boss – 59.64% vs. Tidus/Jecht – 40.36% - Round 1 – 19.28% Top 10 Hardest Matches to Predict 1. Big Boss/The Boss vs. Chris Redfield/Albert Wesker – Round 2 – 37.29% 2. Big Boss/The Boss vs. Tidus/Jecht – Round 1 – 55.06% 3. Phoenix Wright/Miles Edgeworth vs. Gordon Freeman/Dr. Breen – Round 1 – 57.30% 4. Sub-Zero/Scorpion vs. Donkey Kong/King K. Rool - Round 2 – 58.33% 5. Luigi/Waluigi vs. Cecil Harvey/Golbez – Round 1 – 60.19% 6. Ike/Black Knight vs. Conker/Great Mighty Poo – Round 1 – 63.37% 7. Frog/Magus vs. Raiden/Vamp – Round 1 – 66.12% 8. Alucard/Dracula vs. Commander Shepard/Saren – Round 1 – 67.82% 9. Ryu/Ken vs. Fox McCloud/Wolf O’Donnell – Round 2 – 67.88% 10. Siegfried/Nightmare vs. Ramza Beoulve/Delita Hyral – Round 1 – 68.03% --- BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/Rivalry%20BOP.xls Rivalry Rumble: 43/48 Today: Link/Ganondorf |
There is no chance to survive the Link. --- :> |
From: FateStayAlbion | #172 I think it would be a safe 65/35 kind of match --- Official Queen ***** of the Universe! |
oh jeez --- ~ Rivalry Rumble Oracle Challenge ~ Rank - 24th Today's Prediction: Link / Dorf - 79.19% |
By
the way, if Ammy got 65% on Arthas, that would put Link at exactly 79%
on Ammy. Since the Bosses could barely double Arthas in the vote-ins,
Ammy won't be doing that to Arthas either because I would never pick
Ammy over the Bosses. --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as BlAcK TuRtLe, Guru Champ! |
Amaterasu getting killed. I blame Orochi! --- Praise the Black Turtle, Game of the Decade Guru Champ. (Well, I never promised creativity, did I?!) |
37% and only two perfects fell off the battle leaderboard? Sigh. --- http://img.imgcake.com/nio/2bigwigpngut.png |
Blowouts by Link are beautiful things. I've missed them sorely all these years since 2004. You see this, Snake? Watch and understand just how futile your quest is! --- 2002 Link, 2003 Cloud, 2004 Link, 2005 Link, 2006 Link, 2008 Link, 2010 Link, 2011 Cloud. Link 6, Cloud 2 |
From: Bigwig_rah | #905 People like to cut them cookies. We'll see how they taste on Sora/Dante. Not sure if the cookie monster will come and eat them up for that one. --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
Up up he goes, where he stops nobody knows! --- :> |
bah... I thought Link might be able to finish over 80% .... too bad I went with a "safe" oracle pick --- ~ Rivalry Rumble Oracle Challenge ~ Rank - 24th Today's Prediction: Link / Dorf - 79.19% |
Bigwig_rah posted... 37% and only two perfects fell off the battle leaderboard? Sigh. THE HIVE MIND! --- "I am riding the Poke-wave, using the metaphorical Surf and hopping on my Blastoise, all the way to Mario vs Bowser." - RPGLord |
I
never once considered the idea of Link finishing over 80% here,
although I did feel he had a good chance to finish between 78% and 80%. --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as BlAcK TuRtLe, Guru Champ! |
From: creativename | #187 I'm taking my cookie straight to the bank on that match, if you follow. --- http://i45.tinypic.com/2jdhsno.gif |
Is Luigi vs. Trainers the only match where the pairing that had the strongest character (by at least a decent margin) has lost? --- "I am riding the Poke-wave, using the metaphorical Surf and hopping on my Blastoise, all the way to Mario vs Bowser." - RPGLord |
Bad result. --- peace comes from within |
Discounting all alts(that are visible) there are 57 perfects left. I'm down to the final 7. --- - |
jacko_vdz posted... Is Luigi vs. Trainers the only match where the pairing that had the strongest character (by at least a decent margin) has lost? I'd say Leon is a decent bit stronger than either of the ninja. --- :> |
vcharon posted... jacko_vdz posted... Is Luigi vs. Trainers the only match where the pairing that had the strongest character (by at least a decent margin) has lost? I'd say Leon is a decent bit stronger than either of the ninja. After MK9, I'd say Leon would beat Subz, but it would be close. Like 53-47%.. not close enough to call it a lock --- http://raptr.com/badge/cf898f37d9c30ef120ada6c35e636ad3/fs.png http://myanimelist.net/signature/RyanSaotome.png |
This
is definitely an "I'm here to destroy this contest" type of showing.
Amaterasu is likable and as good an anti-Link vote as anyone. I don't
even think Link and Ganon have drawn teams that weak; LoZ is just that
beastly once again. At this point, I have to wonder if Cloud/Seph even
have a better shot at winning this contest than the Trainers do. --- Yoblazer: http://oi53.tinypic.com/2hd0dh1.jpg Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world! |
Attorneys beating Freeman/Breen may fall under your definition, too. --- http://img812.imageshack.us/img812/3492/eponaharr.jpg Nominate E P O N A. |
Southeast Division Lower Half Big Boss vs. The Boss – 50.00% Chris Redfield vs. Albert Wesker – 43.40% Tidus vs. Jecht – 40.36% Dan Hibiki vs. Sagat – 18.04% South Division Upper Half Link vs. Ganondorf – 50.00% Amaterasu vs. Orochi – 18.68% Arthas Menethil vs. Illidian – 14.70% Tom Nook vs. Crazy Redd – 12.28% Would you take Dan/Sagat over Amaterasu/Orochi? I know I would...! --- http://i43.tinypic.com/dgwh0.gif http://www.majhost.com/gallery/atukam/OHWD/snownd.gif |
