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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1024

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#101 | The_Djoker | Posted 11/26/2011 5:00:51 AM | message detail
Expected. Don't know why people expected more than 60%. This is not MGS v RE. It's pretty much the best RE rivalry Vs a MGS3 Rivalry.
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#102 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 11/26/2011 6:22:32 AM | message detail
I guess the Bosses still have a shot at pulling off the upset, but eh.
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#103 | SuorGenoveffa | Posted 11/26/2011 6:26:33 AM | message detail
I'm confident they don't. I'd take Terra and Kefka to beat Chris and Wesker.

But taking the bosses to beat Samus was an extremely risky pick to begin with IMO.
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#104 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 11/26/2011 6:39:42 AM | message detail
Good thing I didn't stick with it in my bracket! For some reason the Metroid games' flops in prior all-inclusive games contests came to my mind before their successes in GOTD did.

On a side note, IIRC, the GOTD stats, have Metroid Prime doubling Vice City. Yet:

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3467

What happened there? According to the GOTD stats, Metroid Prime should be in an easy 1st place in that poll while Vice City should be in an even more easy 4th.

I can think of plenty of explanations for that one, but I'd like to hear what you guys think. For the record, IIRC, the GOTD stats have Prime getting 56% on Kingdom Hearts.
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#105 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 11/26/2011 6:42:07 AM | message detail
SuorGenoveffa posted...
I'm confident they don't. I'd take Terra and Kefka to beat Chris and Wesker.

But taking the bosses to beat Samus was an extremely risky pick to begin with IMO.


I dunno. Terra/Kefka is a rivalry from one 17-year old game, while Chris/Wesker spans an entire series...

...oh wait, Chris/Wesker only spans three RE games: RE1, Code Veronica, and RE5, out of which the former two games...are not exactly centered around Chris Redfield!

I'd still feel uneasy about picking the FFVI guys over the RE guys.
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#106 | transcience | Posted 11/26/2011 6:49:03 AM | message detail
Terra/Kefka > Chris/Wesker > Tidus/Jecht seems super weird to me. Samus isn't out of the woods yet.
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#107 | FateStayAlbion | Posted 11/26/2011 6:50:41 AM | message detail
I would have expected it to be...

Tidus/Jecht > Terra/Kefka > Chris/Wesker

Before this match. Maybe the melty pics are hurting the bosses making Tidus/Jecht look worse.
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#108 | transcience | Posted 11/26/2011 6:52:08 AM | message detail
anyway, the past week has made me feel a lot better about Frog/Magus over Chell/Glados, even if the conclusions being drawn aren't the most clear-cut.
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#109 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 11/26/2011 6:53:15 AM | message detail
I would've pointed out the melty pics earlier, but I didn't.

Remember, this is what happened last time an MGS entity drew melty art in the match pic:

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=4178
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#110 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 11/26/2011 6:58:25 AM | message detail
To be fair, I have a hard time believing that Samus and Ridley wouldn't be doing better here.

Heck, Ridley is stronger than both Chris and Wesker!

The Bosses are under 57% now. There's still plenty of breathing room for a Metroid > MGS3 result next round if RE > FFVI is assumed.
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#111 | charmander6000 | Posted 11/26/2011 8:03:31 AM | message detail
On a side note, IIRC, the GOTD stats, have Metroid Prime doubling Vice City. Yet:

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3467

What happened there? According to the GOTD stats, Metroid Prime should be in an easy 1st place in that poll while Vice City should be in an even more easy 4th.


Metroid Prime is well overrated in the stats, Vice City and San Andreas didn't look as good and Metroid Prime was held back by Paper Mario.
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#112 | swirIdude | Posted 11/26/2011 8:25:40 AM | message detail
The Trainers will win by summoning Aerodactyl, which will give Samus a case of bad PTSD.
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#113 | charmander6000 | Posted 11/26/2011 8:35:50 AM | message detail
It'd be funny if the trainers used pokemon that are strong against their opponents.

Espeon/Alakazam against Fighters
Lapras/Arcanine against Ridley/Samus
Gyarados/Blastoise against Mario/Bowser
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#114 | Safer Sephiroth 777 | Posted 11/26/2011 8:43:27 AM | message detail
Nice idea!I hope UltimaterializerX makes these exact same pictures!Well at least the first one since we don't know if they can advance further.
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#115 | Sun_Sol | Posted 11/26/2011 9:07:59 AM | message detail
I prefer that the Trainers don't cheat by having Pokemon in their match pics.
#116 | LeonhartFour | Posted 11/26/2011 10:07:49 AM | message detail
Would Terra or Kefka beat Tidus/Jecht 1-on-1? My 2010 stats have Kefka > Tidus > Terra > Jecht, but they're all very close together. Based on my numbers, Kefka beats Jecht with 52.44%, and that's the gap between 1st and 4th.
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#117 | LeonhartFour | Posted 11/26/2011 10:11:32 AM | message detail
Also, Chris Redfield falls in between that small gap between Tidus and Terra, to boot. Wesker's a decent bit below Jecht, but not a whole lot. All six of these characters are in the same relative area. I guess it's just a matter of "rivalries matter" to differentiate between them.
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#118 | BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 11/26/2011 2:06:49 PM | message detail

From: LeonhartFour | #116
Would Terra or Kefka beat Tidus/Jecht 1-on-1? My 2010 stats have Kefka > Tidus > Terra > Jecht, but they're all very close together. Based on my numbers, Kefka beats Jecht with 52.44%, and that's the gap between 1st and 4th.


On strength alone yes.

Adding rivalry factor, also yes.

Tidus/Jecht is essentially "Ha, you suck", "Wahhhh daddy why are you such a meanie"
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#119 | LeonhartFour | Posted 11/26/2011 2:07:15 PM | message detail
#120 | pjbasis | Posted 11/26/2011 2:18:57 PM | message detail
Yeah.

Also essentially what Big Boss/The Boss is, replacing "daddy" with "mommy".
#121 | LeonhartFour | Posted 11/26/2011 3:56:00 PM | message detail
No.
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#122 | transience | Posted 11/26/2011 3:57:25 PM | message detail
Terra/Kefka is a joke rivalry. I'd rather have daddy issues over nothing at all
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#123 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 11/26/2011 4:27:17 PM | message detail
Well Terra/Kefka is a better rivalry than anyone else from FFVI/Kefka.
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#124 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 11/26/2011 4:29:00 PM | message detail
Oh. My. God.

The MGS guys are down to just over 56.8%. Did we go through MGS's "awful" ASV again?
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#125 | red sox 777 | Posted 11/26/2011 4:29:57 PM | message detail
It is saturday, there is no ASV. But there is a day vote.
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#126 | SuorGenoveffa | Posted 11/26/2011 4:32:55 PM | message detail
LinkMarioSamus posted...
Well Terra/Kefka is a better rivalry than anyone else from FFVI/Kefka.

Leo/Kefka
Celes/Kefka
Umaro/Kefka
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#127 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 11/26/2011 4:33:31 PM | message detail
So awful MGS day vote as usual, followed by a rise with the second night vote?

But I swear, if MGS guys are losing the day vote to RE guys that aren't RE4-related, and they're up against major Nintendo characters next round...
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#128 | GrapefruitKing | Posted 11/26/2011 4:34:04 PM | message detail
Banon/Ultros is where it's at
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#129 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 11/26/2011 4:34:09 PM | message detail
SuorGenoveffa posted...
LinkMarioSamus posted...
Well Terra/Kefka is a better rivalry than anyone else from FFVI/Kefka.

Leo/Kefka
Celes/Kefka
Umaro/Kefka


Don't agree.
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#130 | Greyfeld | Posted 11/26/2011 4:51:38 PM | message detail
SuorGenoveffa posted...
LinkMarioSamus posted...
Well Terra/Kefka is a better rivalry than anyone else from FFVI/Kefka.

Leo/Kefka
Celes/Kefka
Umaro/Kefka


In other words, Who?/Kefka.

For rivalries to matter, the characters need to matter. While Terra and Kefka may not really be a rivalry in the truest sense of the word, they have a polarized relationship that takes up a solid third of the game, and they're the two most popular characters from FF6.
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#131 | SuorGenoveffa | Posted 11/26/2011 5:00:14 PM | message detail
Greyfeld posted...
SuorGenoveffa posted...
LinkMarioSamus posted...
Well Terra/Kefka is a better rivalry than anyone else from FFVI/Kefka.

Leo/Kefka
Celes/Kefka
Umaro/Kefka

In other words, Who?/Kefka.

For rivalries to matter, the characters need to matter. While Terra and Kefka may not really be a rivalry in the truest sense of the word, they have a polarized relationship that takes up a solid third of the game, and they're the two most popular characters from FF6.


It was not meant as "which rivalry should've made the contest", I'm well aware that Terra is the only solid choice from that point of view. Still not sold on that from the game's point of view, but that's because honestly, you really have to force yourself to call Terra/Kefka or anyone/Kefka a rivalry.

Luckily, Terra and Kefka have Dissidia.
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#132 | transience | Posted 11/26/2011 5:01:16 PM | message detail
Celes/Kefka is better. Leo/Kefka is better. hell, Sabin/Edgar is better.
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#133 | MarquessLaus | Posted 11/26/2011 5:04:35 PM | message detail
they have a polarized relationship that takes up a solid third of the game,

Kefka doesn't mention Terra ever again after Figaro Castle. It does not make up a solid third of the game, he certainly hasn't gone on record as HATE HATE HATE HATE HATE HATE HATE HATE HATEing her, or go out of his way to screw with her at the Magitek Factory or make special note of enjoying getting rid of her at Narche like Celes. Yes, Kefka has antagonistic relationships with half the cast but Terra's is not even top three among.
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#134 | LeonhartFour | Posted 11/26/2011 5:09:51 PM | message detail

From: LinkMarioSamus | #124
The MGS guys are down to just over 56.8%. Did we go through MGS's "awful" ASV again?


This percentage has barely budged in hours. MGS has slowly been dropping, but this isn't anything drastic. Not even half a percent since this morning.
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#135 | KamikazePotato | Posted 11/26/2011 5:10:54 PM | message detail
There's way more Terra/Kefka stuff in Dissidia than FF6. That probably helped them some.
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#136 | LeonhartFour | Posted 11/26/2011 5:13:55 PM | message detail
Yeah, Dissidia seemingly giving some "validity" to this rivalry probably helps it out somewhat.
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#137 | red sox 777 | Posted 11/26/2011 5:25:22 PM | message detail
I'm glad we have a Link match tonight to spice up this boring contest. Link blowouts are always wonderful events.
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#138 | red sox 777 | Posted 11/26/2011 5:26:09 PM | message detail
And another 80% showing still won't save him from Cloud/Sephiroth/Ganondorf.
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#139 | LeonhartFour | Posted 11/26/2011 5:26:48 PM | message detail
The only good thing about Link matches is that it means I don't have to pay attention to anything for 24 hours.
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#140 | red sox 777 | Posted 11/26/2011 5:28:50 PM | message detail
For my 3 favorite contest characters, Crono produces the best matches because the excitement simply cannot be matched. But with Link and Cloud, Link matches tend to produce much more satisfying results because Cloud tends to disappoint all the way until very late in the contest when the anti-votes don't matter as much any more because his opponent is already strong.
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#141 | creativename | Posted 11/26/2011 5:32:36 PM | message detail

From: SuorGenoveffa | #606
Leo/Kefka
Celes/Kefka
Umaro/Kefka


Even Cyan/Kefka is arguably a better rivalry than Kefka/Terra, yet no one mentions poor Cyan. Kefka destroyed everything Cyan had.

I agree that Celes/Kefka is the best rivalry (and IMO it's like, not even in question - the "hate hate hate hate hate you" quote alone shows that, along with Celes' former ties to Kefka and then uniting everyone against him) followed by Leo/Kefka. Not that Terra/Kefka isn't legit - he destroys her people and uses her to take over the world, there's a relationship there. It just isn't as much a "rivalry" as with Celes or Leo. More master/puppet.

But Dissidia makes Terra/Kefka for sure the strongest possible rivalry in contest terms, easily.
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#142 | red sox 777 | Posted 11/26/2011 5:34:01 PM | message detail
I think if it comes down to it, I'd rather have stronger rivalries than better rivalries in the contest. One thing more than any other makes contests interesting: strength.
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#143 | creativename | Posted 11/26/2011 5:41:29 PM | message detail
Looking at the Oracle, I'm surprised that Sora is still the favorite. Most are picking a close match but the clear majority is with Sora.

I would have figured that either it would be a total toss-up, with an even number of picks for both sides, or that Dante would be favored.

I find it hard to have faith in Dante but slightly harder to have faith in Kingdom Hearts at this point. Who chokes the least?

From: red sox 777 | #702
I think if it comes down to it, I'd rather have stronger rivalries than better rivalries in the contest. One thing more than any other makes contests interesting: strength.


I agree with you.
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#144 | Azp2k32 | Posted 11/26/2011 5:45:54 PM | message detail
creativename posted...
Looking at the Oracle, I'm surprised that Sora is still the favorite. Most are picking a close match but the clear majority is with Sora.

I would have figured that either it would be a total toss-up, with an even number of picks for both sides, or that Dante would be favored.



Eh, I think people want to stick with their gut/pre-contest prediction. We didn't know it'd be a toss-up like this til' the contest was in full swing. As well, several people were saying in another topic that they were going to wait on the picture to come out to determine which side they were backing.
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#145 | creativename | Posted 11/26/2011 5:49:21 PM | message detail

From: Azp2k32 | #704
Eh, I think people want to stick with their gut/pre-contest prediction. We didn't know it'd be a toss-up like this til' the contest was in full swing. As well, several people were saying in another topic that they were going to wait on the picture to come out to determine which side they were backing.


I and others did say it was pretty much a toss-up pre-contest, though. I had no idea who to go with there and only went with Sora because for some reason he was the clear BOP favorite, and I had no other reason to lean either way. I just can't have faith in either party.

But yeah, the pic may influence me.
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#146 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 11/26/2011 6:00:42 PM | message detail
I also went with Sora in my bracket because I figured Riku would be stronger than Vergil, although Dante and Sora alone would be very close.

As for who would be the overall bracket favorite, I'd say that would go to Sora by a small amount. What really stood out to me was Sora getting nearly 90% bracket prediction against a joke character, compared to Dante getting just barely above 95% on what could be the weakest rivalry in this bracket. Even Crono could only manage about 78% of the brackets against Missingno.
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#147 | LeonhartFour | Posted 11/26/2011 6:06:13 PM | message detail | (edited)

From: creativename | #141
the "hate hate hate hate hate you" quote alone shows that


I'm pretty sure he would've said that to anyone who stabbed him with a knife, quite frankly. Kefka's rivalry with Celes is a little overblown.

From: creativename | #143
I find it hard to have faith in Dante but slightly harder to have faith in Kingdom Hearts at this point. Who chokes the least?


Keep in mind that the strongest character Dante has ever beaten 1-on-1 is Ryu Hayabusa, and it's not like he's never had the opportunity to beat someone worthwhile.
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#148 | LeonhartFour | Posted 11/26/2011 6:08:42 PM | message detail
Heck, even if you want to count 4-ways, Dante hasn't beaten a character worth a crap other than Leon Kennedy, two of those matches featuring Leon with terrible, terrible pictures.
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#149 | TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 11/26/2011 6:10:51 PM | message detail
now we just wait the inevitable DmC Dante pics
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#150 | red sox 777 | Posted 11/26/2011 6:11:13 PM | message detail
Dante's not gotten the chance. He's only had 2 chances: against Ryu and Yoshi. If those matches were coinflips then he'd have a 1/4 chance of having those results just by bad luck. Not remotely enough evidence to support any kind of theory about Dante being a choker.
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