GameFAQs Contests
Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1024
I'm liking that I won't have to worry about Samus next round, at this rate Because that means my bracket is in excellent shape to go -1 on the entire contest (why did I pick Ramza again) --- http://img.imgcake.com/RegaroUlquiorrapngse.png |
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Hey,
considering that Big Boss/The Boss was the hardest first round winner
to predict, this match will probably give us our first sub-50%
prediction percentage. --- Thank you, Eddie Guerrero. http://img.imgcake.com/Icon/Punkjpguh.jpg |
Have to think Samus is the favorite. I'd take FF6 duo over the RE duo. --- http://raptr.com/badge/cf898f37d9c30ef120ada6c35e636ad3/fs.png http://myanimelist.net/signature/RyanSaotome.png |
From: pjbasis | #048 nobody was saying 70-30! --- thelefty for analysis crew 2008 imo -tranny I have a third degree burn in flame-o-nomics -Sir Chris |
I see North America is the problem here. As they always are! --- peace comes from within |
Southeast Division Upper Half Samus Aran vs. Ridley – 50.00% Terra Branford vs. Kefka Palazzo – 39.21% The Kid vs. The Guy – 19.36% Vyse vs. Galcian – 16.73% Southeast Division Lower Half Big Boss vs. The Boss – 50.00% Tidus vs. Jecht – 40.36% Chris Redfield vs. Albert Wesker – 40.03% Dan Hibiki vs. Sagat – 16.64% Vyse/Galcian vs. Dan/Sagat: Who you got?! --- http://img.imgcake.com/nio/26leonpngat.png http://img.imgcake.com/nio/daigohadoupnguj.png |
Wait, 82% picked Samus?! What happened to the overestimating of Kefka, hm? They may overestimate him, but they aren't dumb. --- BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/Rivalry%20BOP.xls Rivalry Rumble: 41/46 Today: Big Boss/The Boss |
Vyse/Galcian vs. Dan/Sagat: Who you got?! Dan/Sagat >_> --- BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/Rivalry%20BOP.xls Rivalry Rumble: 41/46 Today: Big Boss/The Boss |
That depends, Leon... http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3696 http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3691 Alex Mercer vs. KOS-MOS, who ya got? --- http://i259.photobucket.com/albums/hh293/zukiraphaera/war-sig-1.png http://i.imgur.com/FII1z.gif |
I think I'd take Dan/Sagat over Vyse/Galcian based on name recognition alone. They may overestimate him, but they aren't dumb. It also suggests Samus will be a massive favorite over Ryu/Ken, and probably over Red/Blue, too. --- "Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. So...what is a party?" "Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think." |
Then Samus > Bosses is a lock! --- http://i259.photobucket.com/albums/hh293/zukiraphaera/war-sig-1.png http://i.imgur.com/FII1z.gif |
It also suggests Samus will be a massive favorite over Ryu/Ken, and probably over Red/Blue, too. Which shouldn't surprise anyone considering Samus has been one of the strongest characters ever. --- BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/Rivalry%20BOP.xls Rivalry Rumble: 41/46 Today: Big Boss/The Boss |
What wins in a game poll, Skies of Arcadia or Super Street Fighter 4? --- Thank you, Eddie Guerrero. http://img.imgcake.com/Icon/Punkjpguh.jpg |
I wonder if Bosco thinks this is a game changer --- You know who's sexy? Black Turtle, the 2010 Games Contest Guru Winner, that's who! |
JaKyL25 posted... Hey, considering that Big Boss/The Boss was the hardest first round winner to predict, this match will probably give us our first sub-50% prediction percentage. I'm gonna guess the prediction percentage doesn't drop much from their first round. Bet people who took them over Tidus/Jecht didn't see much threat from anyone they would see in this match. --- Inter-planetary-mega-stellar-hydro-static. There's no gravity between us. Our love is automatic. |
Come on looking for a big cut, daddy needs a new pair of jeans! *casts the dice* |
I'd be surprised if the bosses had more than 40% prediction percent. --- BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/Rivalry%20BOP.xls Rivalry Rumble: 41/46 Today: Big Boss/The Boss |
SabrielAbhorsen posted... JaKyL25 posted... Hey, considering that Big Boss/The Boss was the hardest first round winner to predict, this match will probably give us our first sub-50% prediction percentage. I'm gonna guess the prediction percentage doesn't drop much from their first round. Bet people who took them over Tidus/Jecht didn't see much threat from anyone they would see in this match. Only a few more people need to have taken Chris/Wesker or Dan/Sagat > Bosses than took Ike/Black Knight or Conker/Poo over Mario/Bowser. Hell, just the favorite brackets alone will probably push Bosses under 50%. --- http://i259.photobucket.com/albums/hh293/zukiraphaera/war-sig-1.png http://i.imgur.com/FII1z.gif |
From: SabrielAbhorsen | #066 Hey, if Mario's prediction percentage can drop 3% in Round Two, surely the Bosses can drop 6% <_< --- Thank you, Eddie Guerrero. http://img.imgcake.com/Icon/Punkjpguh.jpg |
WAR'D With the exact same reasoning too. --- Thank you, Eddie Guerrero. http://img.imgcake.com/Icon/Punkjpguh.jpg |
Think
Metroid will beat the Bosses but look unimpressive doing so, then
probably lose to the Trainers/Fighters winner next round. I especially cannot see Metroid beating the Trainers. Like, I just can't picture it. Trainers would be too strong at that point. Ryu/Ken are probably close to virtually even with Samus/Ridley so beating them would put the Trainer right at the Samus/Ridley level already, and they'd have that Pokewagon thing going on. --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
JaKyL25 posted... From: SabrielAbhorsen | #066 JaKyL25 posted... Hey, considering that Big Boss/The Boss was the hardest first round winner to predict, this match will probably give us our first sub-50% prediction percentage. I'm gonna guess the prediction percentage doesn't drop much from their first round. Bet people who took them over Tidus/Jecht didn't see much threat from anyone they would see in this match. Hey, if Mario's prediction percentage can drop 3% in Round Two, surely the Bosses can drop 6% <_< Good point actually. --- Inter-planetary-mega-stellar-hydro-static. There's no gravity between us. Our love is automatic. |
Hey, the Bosses picture was submitted by someone named Mr_Big_Boss. I think that's kinda cool. --- Thank you, Eddie Guerrero. http://img.imgcake.com/Icon/Punkjpguh.jpg |
lol this performance --- You know who's sexy? Black Turtle, the 2010 Games Contest Guru Winner, that's who! |
Ryu/Ken need
to beat the Trainers and Samus. We need the rise of something other
than Nintendo/Square! :[ Anyone else got the same feelings as me? =p --- "Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. So...what is a party?" "Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think." |
Only 7.8 percent to go! |
Ryu/Ken
need to beat the Trainers and Samus. We need the rise of something
other than Nintendo/Square! :[ Anyone else got the same feelings as me?
=p fighters vs. bosses let's do this. --- BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/Rivalry%20BOP.xls Rivalry Rumble: 41/46 Today: Big Boss/The Boss |
If we all vote hard enough, we can make the Elite 8 into Sega vs. Capcom, Capcom vs. Capcom, and two Konami vs. Capcom matches. --- Thank you, Eddie Guerrero. http://img.imgcake.com/Icon/Punkjpguh.jpg |
Whoo, percentage increase. Finally. --- "I couldn't stand a day without a past or future. I need to live each moment to keep fighting here and now." |
At
this point I can't see Samus/Ridley beating the Trainers because I feel
like Red/Blue are both too weak alone to have things go like
Snake/Crono where character strength overwhelmed the weaker halves, but I
could see them beating Ryu/Ken even if Dem Fighters managed to beat
Red/Blue head-to-head. It wouldn't be first time Samus pulled a win out
of her ass after looking like crap going into the match. Except this
time we couldn't blame Brawl. Or could we? Fighting game SFF? I am completely insane, and will gladly keep making everyone else (even pjbasis) look like geniuses. --- http://i259.photobucket.com/albums/hh293/zukiraphaera/war-sig-1.png http://i.imgur.com/FII1z.gif |
Yep,
Samus's chances are looking better, especially since it's highly likely
that there's more fanbase overlap here than there was last match (I
mean, we all talk about MGS and RE sharing a fanbase...). On a side note, what is the possibility of these franchises sharing a universal "casual" fanbase? Final Fantasy Metal Gear Resident Evil Ninja Gaiden Halo Grand Theft Auto God of War Devil May Cry Assassin's Creed I'm asking because strange things tend to happen in matches featuring entities from two or more of these franchises. Okay, perhaps Halo looks like a longshot, but Liquid Snake collapsing when Master Chief enters the picture can't be ignored... ...then again, maybe Liquid Snake collapses at the sight of any big casual character. We'd need to see Liquid against Hayabusa, Kratos, and/or Dante (I was about to suggest Altair, but...THAT ALREADY HAPPENED!!!). Also we've seen plenty of evidence of FF/MGS SFF in the past (although once again, Liquid Snake being on a receiving end of an FF7 character's blowout is the best evidence), but then last character contest featured Snake overperform against FF characters and underperform against Nintendo characters, so...I DON'T KNOW. I'd like to see some discussion on this "casual fanbase" overlap theory. --- Currently Playing - StarCraft: Brood War |
I'm calling time of death after an hour. FOR THE BOSSES |
"Casual fanbase" implies then that Nintendo is the non-casual. I'd just say Nintendo is the one a rule should be made for, because it has a very strong hardcore crowd, which might have to do with console more than anything. |
WarThaNemesis2 posted... At this point I can't see Samus/Ridley beating the Trainers because I feel like Red/Blue are both too weak alone to have things go like Snake/Crono where character strength overwhelmed the weaker halves, but I could see them beating Ryu/Ken even if Dem Fighters managed to beat Red/Blue head-to-head. It wouldn't be first time Samus pulled a win out of her ass after looking like crap going into the match. Except this time we couldn't blame Brawl. Or could we? Fighting game SFF? I am completely insane, and will gladly keep making everyone else (even pjbasis) look like geniuses. Well, IIRC the 2010 stats have Red and Ridley being more or less equal, which is why I did not think the trainers would beat the Metroid guys. Furthermore, the rivalries the trainers have faced this contest are near unrecognizable as rivalries, as Raynor/Kerrigan is a rivalry hailing from a game series mostly famous for its multiplayer (so just like with CoD, SC characters are going to be much weaker than the games themselves) while Luigi/Waluigi...oh boy, where do I even start with that? Samus/Ridley is a much, much better rivalry than either of those. And oh wow, the MGS3 guys are just going more and more down, against RE characters no less. Honestly, I'm leaving them for dead! Glad I didn't stick with my gut pick of Big Boss/The Boss > Samus/Ridley. --- Currently Playing - StarCraft: Brood War |
pjbasis posted... "Casual fanbase" implies then that Nintendo is the non-casual. I'd just say Nintendo is the one a rule should be made for, because it has a very strong hardcore crowd, which might have to do with console more than anything. Maybe "casual mainstream" fanbase makes more sense? Because it's not like Nintendo is particularly mainstream nowadays. --- Currently Playing - StarCraft: Brood War |
Disappoint.
Bosses had a real chance to capitalize on a bad Samus performance.
Based on what we've seen over the past several days, I'm betting a very
strong majority of the Battle Perfects will take MMX, Trainers, and
Samus in three consecutive days. --- Yoblazer: http://i44.tinypic.com/5nw45i.jpg Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world! |
Man why are they going up? MAN. Ugh. I lose. Blast it all. I'll get you next time, in the bracket contest! |
I
think I'm just gonna stick with the fighters no matter what. You can go
with the crowd battle picks for Fighters and come in 47th place or
whatever, orrrr you can get a legitmately challenging match right and
have a much smaller pool of players to deal with after your "risky" pick
pays off. But ya can't bank. --- You know who's sexy? Black Turtle, the 2010 Games Contest Guru Winner, that's who! |
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 11/26/2011 12:42:52 AM | message detail | quote Disappoint. Bosses had a real chance to capitalize on a bad Samus performance. Based on what we've seen over the past several days, I'm betting a very strong majority of the Battle Perfects will take MMX, Trainers, and Samus in three consecutive days. I'm not perfect in the battle challenge because I had my streak busted up on match 7 for picking against Donkey Kong. After that **** up, I've remained perfect since then with 52800 points. If I bank on Dante/Sora, I'll only be able to build up another streak of 10500 points at the most, and that's going to be hard to do with close matches being more likely to happen in round 3 and beyond. --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as BlAcK TuRtLe, Guru Champ! |
Samus looks okay for next round still. Glad I have Red/Blue to the semis, though I'm very nervous about the match with Ryu/Ken. --- 2002 Link, 2003 Cloud, 2004 Link, 2005 Link, 2006 Link, 2008 Link, 2010 Link, 2011 Cloud. Link 6, Cloud 2 |
Wow, a tied update. I wonder if Chris will cut soon --- http://raptr.com/badge/cf898f37d9c30ef120ada6c35e636ad3/fs.png http://myanimelist.net/signature/RyanSaotome.png |
I
think cuts are very likely to happen sometime during this match. But
the early results for Europe don't look too promising in seeing the cuts
happen late at night. --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as BlAcK TuRtLe, Guru Champ! |
Yesterday's chart: Time | Samley | Terfka | Votes | Demographic EBV | 65.32% | 34.68% | 620 | (0:00-0:05) PHV | 62.31% | 37.69% | 4765 | (0:00-1:00) FNV | 59.99% | 40.01% | 10420 | (1:00-6:00) BSV | 59.01% | 40.99% | 4811 | (6:00-9:00) DSV | 61.08% | 38.92% | 13191 | (9:00-14:30) ASV | 61.23% | 38.77% | 13986 | (14:30-22:00) SNV | 60.70% | 39.30% | 2639 | (22:00-24:00) Not as much shifting as one would expect. After that ridiculous board vote, this match stabilized pretty quickly. --- "I can set you free, mate." "My freedom was forfeit long ago!" |
How often do characters end up 4% different from what the US has them at? --- Starcraft is my life, so without it I wouldn't exist. - Artosis |
Score-Brackets-% Right 44------234--------99.57 43------187--------99.47 42------492--------97.76 41------537--------95.72 40------833--------92.68 39------1046------93.12 38------1188------87.88 37------1328------86.45 36------1275------87.22 35------1317------84.05 34------1185------81.69 33------1049------80.74 32------927--------78.96 31------799--------76.10 30------672--------74.85 29------598--------70.23 28------457--------67.40 27------336--------67.56 26------286--------63.64 25------232--------64.66 24------148--------47.97 23------94----------50.00 22------82----------42.68 21------64----------48.44 20------39----------35.90 19------21----------28.57 18------21----------38.10 17------9------------33.33 16------10----------20.00 15------7------------28.57 14------5------------40.00 ... 11------1------------100.00 ... 5--------4------------25.00 Omitted scores got it wrong. Another match with a high overall prediction percentage. The -5s and better stay above 90. We do lose one perfect and one -1 bracket, though. 1 person fell off the Top 50. TygoreMoo did not have Samus Aran vs. Ridley winning the match. --- Pokemon VGC2011 US Nationals - 54th place Pokemon VGC2012 NW Regional - 16th place |
In
39 matches, on 3 occasions, has the percentage in the US differed by
more than 4% from the worldwide one (Kirby/MK vs. Jill Nemesis,
Crash/Cortex vs. Pac-Man/Blinky, Samus/Ridley vs. Terra/Kefka). Two
other matches had a difference of between 3% and 4% (Ryu/Ken vs.
Fox/Wolf and Ammy/Orochi vs. Nook/Redd). So 3/40 (including Bosses/RE as a match that won't see a change of greater than 4%) = 7.5% of the time. Obviously the figures are small, but that should be fairly accurate. They leave you expecting between 4 and 5 matches in a contest of 63, on average, having a 4%+ difference between the end US and World figures. --- Praise the Black Turtle, Game of the Decade Guru Champ. (Well, I never promised creativity, did I?!) |
The first cut of this match just happened 15 minutes ago. --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as BlAcK TuRtLe, Guru Champ! |
This
is looking good for Samus.As long as she makes the 1/4's it'll be
enough damage limitation for my bracket.I kept swapping between her and
the trainers and finally stuck with her reaching the semi's. --- http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v303/Shaneh87/Funny/siggy.jpg |
Well. Looks like the Trainers will be sending Samus home indeed! --- Fight like dragons, have no fear, swords are made of STEEEEEEEEL~ |
