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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1024

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#1 | LeonhartFour | Posted 11/25/2011 3:40:01 PM | message detail | (edited)
Trainers, Fighters, and Bosses, oh my!

Who'll take down Samus first?

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~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
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To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
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~*Say What? Common Stats Topic Lingo Defined*~

SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote. This is the best example of SFF we've ever seen. However take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make perfect sense.

Extrapolated Standings - The mathematical "strength" of a contestant that's determined based on their performance relative to the rest of the field. This number is typically based on the contest entrant's loss, but adjustments are sometimes made. See above for a watered down explanation for how the stats are calculated.
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#2 | UltimaterializerX | Posted 11/25/2011 4:19:39 PM | message detail
TRAINERS
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`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.~*ST*~.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·
The wicked flee when none pursue.
#3 | _Regaro_ | Posted 11/25/2011 4:21:17 PM | message detail
#4 | paulg235 | Posted 11/25/2011 4:22:35 PM | message detail
Trainers is the right answer.
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#5 | LeonhartFour | Posted 11/25/2011 4:22:36 PM | message detail
#6 | MegaWentEvil | Posted 11/25/2011 4:29:23 PM | message detail
I had a nightmare where Ulti forced me to eat brain matter. It was scary. I'm now scared of Ulti in REAL LIFE!
#7 | charmander6000 | Posted 11/25/2011 6:16:28 PM | message detail
From the last topic. I think we establish that 2003(4) Kefka is roughly the same strength as today's Kefka. I think people have forgotten that Kefka use to be a mid-low midcarder rather than the fodder line character that we remember in 2008. 42% on Knuckles was not a bad performance, Pac-Man seems to vary in strength against opponents and Vercetti also had decent strength before collapsing in 2007.
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/Rivalry%20BOP.xls
Rivalry Rumble: 39/44 Today: Samus/Ridley
#8 | pjbasis | Posted 11/25/2011 6:23:52 PM | message detail

From: LeonhartFour | #005
Fighters > Bosses


Well this will be short-lived.
#9 | LeonhartFour | Posted 11/25/2011 6:27:17 PM | message detail
Yeah, I'll be glad when you can be quiet about all this nonsense about Chris/Wesker winning once the Bosses stomp them.
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#10 | pjbasis | Posted 11/25/2011 6:32:25 PM | message detail
I'll be quiet after this match anyway.

Sure as hell not hyping an RE > Samus result.
#11 | LeonhartFour | Posted 11/25/2011 6:33:42 PM | message detail
Yes, but you'll be quiet 5 minutes into the match instead of after the match is over.
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#12 | pjbasis | Posted 11/25/2011 6:35:34 PM | message detail
Pish-posh.

It would have to be like 70-30 at the freeze for that to happen.
#13 | LeonhartFour | Posted 11/25/2011 6:36:13 PM | message detail
#14 | charmander6000 | Posted 11/25/2011 7:41:17 PM | message detail
Match XL: (3) Chris Redfield/Albert Wesker vs. (7) Big Boss/The Boss

Previous Round

Chris Redfield/Albert Wesker – 78.66%
Dan Hibiki/Sagat – 21.34%

Tidus/Jecht – 40.36%
Big Boss/The Boss – 59.64%

Analysis

Last round Chris and Wesker looked big by getting over a tripling against their opponents, being among the many with huge blowouts. The bosses on the other hand turned a debated match into a simple win as they showed everyone that they are the only vote-in characters with any kind of strength.

While some people have been debating this match I don’t see it being close. Big Boss still thrashes everyone in terms of strength and then you have to consider that their rivalry is a lot better compared with Chris and Wesker though they’re no weaklings in that department either. Last round showed that The Boss’s weakness won’t be too much of a liability in matches and Resident Evil 5 has become even more removed from the public’s eyes.

I’m interested in seeing whether Chris and Wesker can outdo the performance Tidus and Jecht had last round. Tidus may win over Chris; however I think Resident Evil fans like the Chris Wesker rivalry a bit more than Final Fantasy X fans like Tidus and Jecht. It’ll probably be close, but I think Tidus and Jecht will end up performing better.

charmander6000’s Bracket: Big Boss/The Boss > Chris Redfield/Albert Wesker

charmander6000’s Prediction: Big Boss/The Boss wins, 59.85% - 40.15%
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/Rivalry%20BOP.xls
Rivalry Rumble: 39/44 Today: Samus/Ridley
#15 | AlecTrevelyan006 | Posted 11/25/2011 7:43:20 PM | message detail
At least we all agree that Samus is going down!
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##Alec
#16 | creativename | Posted 11/25/2011 8:22:43 PM | message detail

From: AlecTrevelyan006 | #055
At least we all agree that Samus is going down!


Yes, from the very start I said that I would not be at all surprised if Samus was weaker than both the Fighters and the Trainers.

At this point my best guess is Trainers>Fighters>Metroid. But, I think it will all be pretty close together.

And depending on a fair picture, the Fighters have a great shot. I think with truly fair pic the FIghters are the legit stronger pair - but I think the odds of a fair pic are virtually non-existent.
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#17 | BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 11/25/2011 8:34:45 PM | message detail
Samus > Ryu/Ken > Trainers

I have yet to see a result to convince me otherwise
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Game of the decade? More like Guru of the decade mirite?
#18 | LeonhartFour | Posted 11/25/2011 8:35:29 PM | message detail
Of course you haven't.
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"I can set you free, mate."
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#19 | pjbasis | Posted 11/25/2011 8:44:51 PM | message detail
You know how like you try to keep yourself calm, because the thing you want to happen is so exciting but since it's not likely to happen you just try to act cool and pretend like nothing's going on?



Yeah I'm totally not doing that though because I AM SO DAMN SURE.
#20 | pjbasis | Posted 11/25/2011 8:57:37 PM | message detail
Oh, you are all gonna be interesting in a few minutes.
#21 | pjbasis | Posted 11/25/2011 8:59:17 PM | message detail
On a completely unrelated note, like, seriously, I don't even know why I'm posting this in the stats topic, or on B8 at all, but I wish there was a mass edit button.

So that all my posts can suddenly become "TROLOLO" at an appointed time across all topics.
#22 | LeonhartFour | Posted 11/25/2011 9:01:14 PM | message detail
Vote Accepted

Chris Redfield vs. Albert Wesker 30% 3
Big Boss vs. The Boss 70% 7
TOTAL VOTES 10

Perfect
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#23 | charmander6000 | Posted 11/25/2011 9:01:21 PM | message detail
CHRRRRIIIIISSSS
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/Rivalry%20BOP.xls
Rivalry Rumble: 41/46 Today: Big Boss/The Boss
#24 | GrapefruitKing | Posted 11/25/2011 9:01:31 PM | message detail
Dan/Sagat weakest characters ever
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~ Rivalry Rumble Oracle Challenge ~ Rank - 26th
Today's Prediction: Samus / Ridley - 65.04%
#25 | tennisboy213 | Posted 11/25/2011 9:01:45 PM | message detail
Vote Accepted








Chris Redfield vs. Albert Wesker

22.5%




9



Big Boss vs. The Boss

77.5%




31



TOTAL VOTES



40
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Anyone who has appeared in a video game should be allowed in the next character battle.
#26 | Xuxon | Posted 11/25/2011 9:01:48 PM | message detail
Looks like Samus is going home a bit earlier than I thought.
#27 | Master Moltar | Posted 11/25/2011 9:01:48 PM | message detail
#28 | KamikazePotato | Posted 11/25/2011 9:01:57 PM | message detail
jesus, Dan/Sagat
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#29 | ZFS | Posted 11/25/2011 9:01:57 PM | message detail
hey pjbasis
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peace comes from within
#30 | TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 11/25/2011 9:02:01 PM | message detail
OYAJIIIIIIIIIII!
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You know who's sexy? Black Turtle, the 2010 Games Contest Guru Winner, that's who!
#31 | LeonhartFour | Posted 11/25/2011 9:02:11 PM | message detail
#32 | th3l3fty | Posted 11/25/2011 9:02:13 PM | message detail
that was one heck of an early vote
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#33 | LeonhartFour | Posted 11/25/2011 9:03:02 PM | message detail
It makes me upset thinking that Tidus/Jecht could be going to round 3 if they hadn't drawn the Bosses.
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#34 | Janus5000 | Posted 11/25/2011 9:04:14 PM | message detail | (edited)
Chris/Wesker probably don't beat Terra/Kefka, but still, not bad.

...and as I say that the RE team goes to 39. Cool.
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#35 | LeonhartFour | Posted 11/25/2011 9:03:48 PM | message detail
#36 | charmander6000 | Posted 11/25/2011 9:03:49 PM | message detail
It makes me upset thinking that Tidus/Jecht could be going to round 3 if they hadn't drawn the Bosses.

Only Jecht alone deserves to go to round 3.
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/Rivalry%20BOP.xls
Rivalry Rumble: 41/46 Today: Big Boss/The Boss
#37 | GrapefruitKing | Posted 11/25/2011 9:04:03 PM | message detail
wow what the hell was that board vote
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~ Rivalry Rumble Oracle Challenge ~ Rank - 26th
Today's Prediction: Samus / Ridley - 65.04%
#38 | FateStayAlbion | Posted 11/25/2011 9:04:06 PM | message detail
#39 | LeonhartFour | Posted 11/25/2011 9:04:18 PM | message detail
#40 | ZFS | Posted 11/25/2011 9:04:42 PM | message detail
GrapefruitKing posted...
wow what the hell was that board vote

Board 8 on the right side for once is what that was!
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peace comes from within
#41 | LeonhartFour | Posted 11/25/2011 9:05:45 PM | message detail

From: ZFS | #040
Board 8 on the right side for once is what that was!


Aw yeah
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#42 | TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 11/25/2011 9:05:53 PM | message detail
Bosses still aren't beating Samus/Ridley
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#43 | hylianknight3 | Posted 11/25/2011 9:05:57 PM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
#44 | LeonhartFour | Posted 11/25/2011 9:06:19 PM | message detail
Darn, dropped under 60% right at the freeze.
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#45 | Janus5000 | Posted 11/25/2011 9:06:42 PM | message detail
Under 60% at the freeze.

Overreaction after five minutes says Samus is looking good next round.
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Fight like dragons, have no fear, swords are made of STEEEEEEEEL~
#46 | Xuxon | Posted 11/25/2011 9:06:59 PM | message detail
I wonder if this could actually be close now. That'd be pretty crazy.
#47 | Haste_2 | Posted 11/25/2011 9:07:14 PM | message detail
Wait, 82% picked Samus?! What happened to the overestimating of Kefka, hm?
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#48 | pjbasis | Posted 11/25/2011 9:07:23 PM | message detail
This looks nothing like 70-30!
#49 | IngmarBirdman | Posted 11/25/2011 9:07:26 PM | message detail
Tentative guess at Dan / Sagat's final x-stat ... I'm thinking between 7 and 8%
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#50 | transcience | Posted 11/25/2011 9:07:50 PM | message detail
not too impressive here by the Bosses. this should drop into the mid-50s, I'd think.

round 3 seems entirely dependent on Big Boss's art.
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