GameFAQs Contests

Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1023

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#451 | Haste_2 | Posted 11/25/2011 11:27:12 AM | message detail
I think Terra/Kefka would defeat Tidus/Jecht, especially if Terra/Kefka get a match pic like the one today. Their Round 1 performance might not be so meaningless, after all. Still, I can't say I'm confident at all in Samus beating Bosses next round.... Ryu/Ken look pretty darn threatening, though. I mean, if Samus/Ridley squeak by Ryu/Ken, that means Terra/Kefka would get like, what, 65% on Yuna/Seymour? It's hard to imagine them doing that. Of course, lol x-stats....

I sure hope the Trainers won't wreck the competition through Mario/Bowser. That would just be crazy. Samus would probably get 70% on Pokemon Traner Red alone. Unless the Charizard/Blastoise presence gave a huge boost to the Trainers, it looks like they just SFFed Luigi/Waluigi. Of course, even if you take off 10% and say that get 68% on them withut SFF, that still makes them look at least as strong Ryu/Ken. I just hope we get some great neck-and-neck matches in the next two rounds.
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#452 | Haste_2 | Posted 11/25/2011 11:30:08 AM | message detail
Oops, I forgot Ryu/Ken vs. Trainers happens before the winner faces Samus.
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#453 | Wii_TuRtLe | Posted 11/25/2011 11:32:55 AM | message detail
Haste_2 posted...
I think Terra/Kefka would defeat Tidus/Jecht, especially if Terra/Kefka get a match pic like the one today. Their Round 1 performance might not be so meaningless, after all. Still, I can't say I'm confident at all in Samus beating Bosses next round.... Ryu/Ken look pretty darn threatening, though. I mean, if Samus/Ridley squeak by Ryu/Ken, that means Terra/Kefka would get like, what, 65% on Yuna/Seymour? It's hard to imagine them doing that. Of course, lol x-stats....

I sure hope the Trainers won't wreck the competition through Mario/Bowser. That would just be crazy. Samus would probably get 70% on Pokemon Traner Red alone. Unless the Charizard/Blastoise presence gave a huge boost to the Trainers, it looks like they just SFFed Luigi/Waluigi. Of course, even if you take off 10% and say that get 68% on them withut SFF, that still makes them look at least as strong Ryu/Ken. I just hope we get some great neck-and-neck matches in the next two rounds.


SFF aside, I don't think people understand just how weak Luigi/Waluigi are. They struggled with Cecil/Golbez, so that Trainer match can't be blamed entirely on SFF
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#454 | vcharon | Posted 11/25/2011 12:25:38 PM | message detail
I'm pretty surprised to come home and see Samus not making much use of the day vote. Wasn't FFVI always notorious for doing poorly during the day?
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#455 | red sox 777 | Posted 11/25/2011 12:33:17 PM | message detail
Yes, FFVI has always had among the worst day votes out there. Samus isn't actually very good with the day, she's more neutral than anything, but that should be enough to go up substantially against FFVI. I think biggest factor is that as the site gets older, the day/night trends are becoming less and less pronounced.
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#456 | AxemRedRanger | Posted 11/25/2011 12:38:01 PM | message detail
I'm not sure Terra and Kefka have their old trends anymore. Their strength was highly altered by Dissidia, so it makes sense that their trends would be affected as well. Dissidia helped them reach a New Square audience, which has probably gone some way towards balancing out their trends.
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#457 | KamikazePotato | Posted 11/25/2011 12:57:10 PM | message detail
This is a pretty abysmal day vote from Samus, even considering the holiday.
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#458 | WhiteLens | Posted 11/25/2011 1:13:43 PM | message detail
A sudden thought just came to me, next year marks the 10th-year anniversary for Character Battles. You think SBAllen wold ever do anything special for it?
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#459 | LeonhartFour | Posted 11/25/2011 1:15:53 PM | message detail
Yes, an actual Summer Contest would be nice.
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#460 | Greyfeld | Posted 11/25/2011 1:19:01 PM | message detail
I think I underestimated the trainers, and it's going to screw my bracket >.<

I have Ryu/Ken going to the semis. If they can beat the trainers, I have no doubt they'll get there. But after this round's matches, I don't think that's going to happen anymore.
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#461 | WhiteLens | Posted 11/25/2011 1:26:57 PM | message detail
Well those of us that have Team Metroid in the semi-finals are even more screwed.
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#462 | Greyfeld | Posted 11/25/2011 1:35:31 PM | message detail
WhiteLens posted...
Well those of us that have Team Metroid in the semi-finals are even more screwed.

To be fair, having Samus in the semi-finals was always a silly choice.
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#463 | JJH777 | Posted 11/25/2011 2:03:02 PM | message detail

From: Greyfeld | #462
WhiteLens posted...
Well those of us that have Team Metroid in the semi-finals are even more screwed.

To be fair, having Samus in the semi-finals was always a silly choice.


No it wasn't.

I'm shocked Samus hasn't gained more with the day-vote. Samus is at 65% in the US and has been there pretty much all day but still isn't gaining significant percent.
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#464 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 11/25/2011 2:29:21 PM | message detail
I think Canada is slowing down Samus's ability to go up with the day vote, as she only has 58.47% in Canada. I wonder why Samus is doing so bad in Canada?
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#465 | Safer Sephiroth 777 | Posted 11/25/2011 2:43:05 PM | message detail
Actually Samus in the final 4 was the logical choice.But whatever I am all for Trainers now!
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#466 | LeonhartFour | Posted 11/25/2011 2:44:45 PM | message detail
Samus was the logical choice if you believed rivalries wouldn't matter, but if you did believe they would matter, then she was a prime suspect for an upset because LOL Ridley
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#467 | AxemRedRanger | Posted 11/25/2011 3:14:20 PM | message detail | (edited)
I'm not sure it's Samus being weak there so much as Kefka being strong there.

Edit: Was replying to Luster's question.
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#468 | LeonhartFour | Posted 11/25/2011 2:49:08 PM | message detail
It's a combination of both. Terra/Kefka seem to be a stronger duo than we anticipated, but I don't think you would expect them to be putting up these numbers on some of our other Noble Nine duos.

Quick: Crono/Lavos vs. Terra/Kefka, who you got?
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#469 | transience | Posted 11/25/2011 3:06:22 PM | message detail
Crono/Lavos, obviously. but I never considered Samus/Ridley over the Snakes.
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#470 | LeonhartFour | Posted 11/25/2011 3:07:41 PM | message detail
Well, I'm just saying that it's a combination of Terra/Kefka being stronger than we thought and Samus/Ridley just being a weak combo. Samus and Snake are essentially equal 1-on-1, but there's definitely a sizable gap in strength between them in this contest.
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#471 | red sox 777 | Posted 11/25/2011 3:23:10 PM | message detail
Crono/Lavos of course. Remember Crono vs. Kefka? You don't just turn around a 79-21 result.
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#472 | LeonhartFour | Posted 11/25/2011 3:38:05 PM | message detail
That's an interesting point you bring up.

What does Crono get on Kefka nowadays?
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#473 | KamikazePotato | Posted 11/25/2011 3:49:43 PM | message detail
You don't just turn around a 79-21 result.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=4546
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#474 | LeonhartFour | Posted 11/25/2011 3:54:20 PM | message detail
But that's a 78-22 result. Totally different...!

Also, what are we expecting from the Bosses tonight? What would we consider a "Samus-threatening" performance here?
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#475 | red sox 777 | Posted 11/25/2011 3:54:31 PM | message detail
Crono probably gets around the same now. Would expect 75-80%
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#476 | The Mana Sword | Posted 11/25/2011 3:54:50 PM | message detail
99%
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#477 | LeonhartFour | Posted 11/25/2011 3:55:59 PM | message detail
I don't know if I'd expect the same now. SFF power doesn't always hold the same across years. We've already seen Link not be able to SFF as hard nowadays as he used to, and the gap between Crono/Kefka is a good bit closer now than it was in 2003, when it was probably bigger than it's ever been.
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#478 | red sox 777 | Posted 11/25/2011 3:56:48 PM | message detail
But that's a 78-22 result. Totally different...!

X-stats wise, the difference is almost as large as an Ulti-style blowout. Besides, we all know that Red > Luigi and he suffered Nintendo SFF at the hands of MMX last year, because Red is the silent protagonist of RBY, the 3rd strongest RPG on the site, so he has to be strong. I refuse to admit I was wrong. Yup. Ocelot just um.......was extremely underrated thanks to Yoshi getting massive rSFF on Pac-Man.
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#479 | Janus5000 | Posted 11/25/2011 3:59:50 PM | message detail
There is no way Crono pulls similar stuff on Kefka today.

As for tomorrow, Chris Redfield lost to Pyramid Head and Kefka beat Wesker 70-30, so anything short of 75% and the Bosses don't stand a chance.

...

Okay, maybe mid-60s to be a threat? Chris/Wesker are probably a bit below Terra/Kefka.
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#480 | red sox 777 | Posted 11/25/2011 4:03:57 PM | message detail | (edited)
I don't know if I'd expect the same now. SFF power doesn't always hold the same across years. We've already seen Link not be able to SFF as hard nowadays as he used to, and the gap between Crono/Kefka is a good bit closer now than it was in 2003, when it was probably bigger than it's ever been.

Uh, the gap is probably pretty close to what it was in 2003. Remember that prior to Kefka's Dissidia boost, FFVI declined fast for several years. CT was worth less than 53% on FFVI in 2004; in the 2009 contest it looked to be around 58%. So, 2009 would probably be the biggest the gap has ever been. Right now it's probably smaller than in 2003 but I wouldn't think by very much, not for Crono (Magus is a different story).

SFF doesn't hold up across years, yeah, but there doesn't seem to be a way to predict whether it increases or decreases.

Crono has always been worth in the 70% area on Kefka before SFF. He got 70% on Vercetti in 2005, who narrowly beat Kefka. Going from 70 to 80 was the result of the SFF, and that's pretty powerful SFF, but not Link/Ganon style SFF.
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#481 | LeonhartFour | Posted 11/25/2011 4:02:41 PM | message detail
Kefka's stronger now than he's ever been, honestly. Making comparisons between CT and FFVI is pretty much worthless because that's not where Kefka's new strength came from.
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#482 | red sox 777 | Posted 11/25/2011 4:07:13 PM | message detail
I doubt Kefka is stronger now than he was in 2003. That was the height of Square's power on this site. I rather doubt that there are any Square characters who are stronger now than they were in 2003. He's closer to Crono now, yeah. Probably not by much, since he fell more than Crono for years before Dissidia.
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#483 | Kotetsu534 | Posted 11/25/2011 4:09:00 PM | message detail
If Crono puts 70% on Kefka pre-SFF, that puts him at about 60% on Bowser. That would be some result!
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#484 | LeonhartFour | Posted 11/25/2011 4:09:45 PM | message detail

From: red sox 777 | #482
I rather doubt that there are any Square characters who are stronger now than they were in 2003.


Hi Kingdom Hearts characters
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#485 | LeonhartFour | Posted 11/25/2011 4:11:30 PM | message detail
Also, it's not really that farfetched to believe that there are Square characters stronger now than they would've been in 2003. Being the peak of Square power doesn't limit the peak of Square characters to that year.

Hold Kefka vs. Pac-Man right now: Who wins and by how much?
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#486 | Janus5000 | Posted 11/25/2011 4:11:34 PM | message detail
so in Kefka's peak year he barely beat Pac-Man

interesting
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#487 | red sox 777 | Posted 11/25/2011 4:20:54 PM | message detail | (edited)
If Crono puts 70% on Kefka pre-SFF, that puts him at about 60% on Bowser. That would be some result!

Crono got 57.5% when they faced off last time. 2006 was probably pretty similar to now, or slightly better for Bowser. It was a much stronger year for Nintendo. Crono declined after 2006, but then he had CTDS which seems to have restored him a little. The result now probably wouldn't go too differently from the 57.5% from then.

And Crono/Kefka is probably a bit closer than 70/30 now before SFF because as I said, the gap is closer now than it's ever been, and traditionally it was around there.

Kingdom Hearts.......eh, I suppose you are right on that one. But KH was only released in 2002, so there's an obvious reason for that one- it's not too too far off from saying that Lightning is stronger now than in 2003. As for Kefka/Pac-Man, I don't know who wins, but they're both weaker now than in 2003.

Also, Kefka/Pac-Man was the original Lettuce Kefka match. Now that pic factor has been confirmed to make a big difference, I think we can safely say that Kefka would have won easily with a better pic.
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#488 | charmander6000 | Posted 11/25/2011 4:21:35 PM | message detail
Before SFF I would take Crono at a doubling, with SFF he's getting low to mid 70s.
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#489 | AxemRedRanger | Posted 11/25/2011 4:29:52 PM | message detail
Seriously, man? Kefka being stronger in 2003 is complete nonsense and we all know it. You can't possibly really believe that. Are you being facetious?

And I would expect less SFF for the simple reason that Kefka's surge in strength is because of new Square fans rather than old Square fans.
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#490 | red sox 777 | Posted 11/25/2011 4:35:19 PM | message detail
No, I am not being facetious. People forget just how strong Square was in 2003. Much like people forget how strong Link used to be when the rail about him always dominating everything, and that was only 2008!
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#491 | charmander6000 | Posted 11/25/2011 4:37:48 PM | message detail
We don't know much about 2003 Kefka besides being even with Pac-Man. In 2004 he got 42% on Knuckles and would've got 34% on Solid Snake (the weak one, 30% on Mega Man). By 2005 when he got his clown picture again he was 30% on Crono.
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#492 | red sox 777 | Posted 11/25/2011 4:43:49 PM | message detail
We don't know much about 2003 Kefka besides being even with Pac-Man. In 2004 he got 42% on Knuckles and would've got 34% on Solid Snake (the weak one, 30% on Mega Man). By 2005 when he got his clown picture again he was 30% on Crono.

30% on 2004 Megaman and 29% on 2005 Crono are very consistent performances. 30% on 04 MM was probably a bit better if I had to choose between them. You're right that we don't have any hard data for 2003, but I'd expect it to be around there.
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#493 | LeonhartFour | Posted 11/25/2011 4:44:39 PM | message detail
Doesn't even look like Samus is going to get up to 61% here.

Some day vote, even if it isn't a regular day.
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#494 | AxemRedRanger | Posted 11/25/2011 4:46:01 PM | message detail
Pac-Man got 42% on Scorpion in 2002, who got 24% on Link. Pac-Man has never been strong, either.

Basically, you have no real stats to back up Kefka 2003 being worth much. Square being generally strong that year does not mean Kefka was strong. He wasn't. You're wrong. Stop being stubborn.
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#495 | charmander6000 | Posted 11/25/2011 4:54:05 PM | message detail | (edited)
30% on 2004 Megaman and 29% on 2005 Crono are very consistent performances. 30% on 04 MM was probably a bit better if I had to choose between them. You're right that we don't have any hard data for 2003, but I'd expect it to be around there.

So I guess the question becomes does the Kefka that got 38% on Bowser during the day perform better than 30% against someone between today's Mega Man and Mario/Samus/Solid Snake/Sephiroth?

That would put Bowser at around 40% against such a character, maybe a bit lower if you consider the night vote Kefka missed out on.
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#496 | red sox 777 | Posted 11/25/2011 5:19:00 PM | message detail
Basically, you have no real stats to back up Kefka 2003 being worth much. Square being generally strong that year does not mean Kefka was strong. He wasn't. You're wrong. Stop being stubborn.

I don't know who you are, but if you think that strongly that Kefka wasn't that strong in 2003 I invite you to bring up evidence for it. We've already established that he was up there in 2004 and 2005, both weaker years for Square than 2003, so I see no reason why he wouldn't have been that strong in 2003.

So I guess the question becomes does the Kefka that got 38% on Bowser during the day perform better than 30% against someone between today's Mega Man and Mario/Samus/Solid Snake/Sephiroth?

That would put Bowser at around 40% against such a character, maybe a bit lower if you consider the night vote Kefka missed out on.


Mario should be a little stronger today than he was back in 2004 (2005 boost > 2008 deboost). Putting Bowser at 40% on Mario now gives around 30% for Kefka against Mario today. That ignores the day match, but most people probably think Bowser isn't quite worth 40% on Mario, so it cancels out. If Kefka was at 30% on Crono in 2004, that puts him around 32% on Mario in 2004. But that Mario was a bit weaker than this Mario. So it ends up being a push.

I think we're already long past the point where random variance makes it pointless to try to be more precise. But it seems 2004 Kefka and current Kefka are in the same range.
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#497 | __Smurf__ | Posted 11/25/2011 5:32:49 PM | message detail
Why is it so hard to believe Kefka could rise since 2003 when Squall has quite blatantly and noticeably risen since that year which was already post-KH and so for no real reason whatsoever. Some characters and their games age well, it isn't rocket science.

Kefka was always disproportionately weak compared to how well his game did, it was a greater mystery how weak he was then compared to Crono than what he appears to be today. I don't really buy Dissidia as a reason though, who plays the PSP? >_>
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#498 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 11/25/2011 5:42:48 PM | message detail
https://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=0AgBWiYjlMLwYdDZFV2I1SFl4VXFDMjQ2RmJqUXJTd0E

It took nearly 6 years for it to finally break 50% ownership. It may not be as good as the DS's ownership, but the PSP has really come around full circle after starting out terrible in the beginning. Over 50% ownership is pretty good for the PSP, so the odds are pretty good that at least half of those PSP owners have played Dissidia.
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#499 | red sox 777 | Posted 11/25/2011 5:45:27 PM | message detail
Why is it so hard to believe Kefka could rise since 2003 when Squall has quite blatantly and noticeably risen since that year which was already post-KH and so for no real reason whatsoever. Some characters and their games age well, it isn't rocket science.

Squall was very strong in 2003, stronger than he is now. He got 61% on Luigi that year. If he didn't look great in the stats, it's because he's behind Link/Samus SFF.
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#500 | foxhead84 | Posted 11/25/2011 5:55:31 PM | message detail
Link will ALWAYS win!!!!!!!!!!
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