GameFAQs Contests

Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1021

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#401 | charmander6000 | Posted 11/20/2011 6:53:16 PM | message detail
Match XXXV: (1) Mega Man X/Zero vs. (5) Bartz Klauser/Gilgamesh

Previous Round

Mega Man X/Zero – 80.45%
Captain Falcon/Black Shadow – 19.55%

Guybrush Threepwood/LeChuck – 35.76%
Bartz Klauser/Gilgamesh – 64.25%

Analysis

Mega Man X and Zero had a rather impressive performance last round showcasing that they are among the strongest pairs in the contest. While Bartz and Gilgamesh performed better than expected I would argue that they are by far the weakest pair remaining in the contest and could be facing the biggest blowout of the round despite SFF matches being present.

While the large win may hint that Bartz and Gilgamesh may have some strength, even considering the opponent I think the blowout is more of an illusion due to how weak their first round match was. Guybrush and LeChuck are probably so unknown to a large portion of GameFAQs that just simply having the knowledge of Dissidia could have swayed many voters that just know Bartz, but don’t really care for him. These apathy votes are going to disappear rather quickly in this match all that will be left are the handful of Final Fantasy V fans and the people that liked him in Dissidia.

I honestly feel that Mega Man and Zero can get a higher score this round than what they had against Falcon and Shadow. Even if they do fail they should be able to at least triple this pair as both Mega Man X and Zero would destroy the pair individually and the rivalry between Bartz and Gilgamesh doesn’t compete with what Mega Man X and Zero have.

charmander6000’s Bracket: Mega Man X/Zero > Bartz Klauser/Gilgamesh

charmander6000’s Prediction: Mega Man X/Zero wins, 80.88% - 19.12%
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Rivalry Rumble: 33/34 Today: Kirby/Meta Knight
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#402 | LeonhartFour | Posted 11/20/2011 8:50:10 PM | message detail
I'm hoping X/Zero and Sub-Zero/Scorpion absolutely destroy it these next couple days just so we can potentially have something to look forward to next round.
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#403 | foxhead84 | Posted 11/20/2011 8:54:09 PM | message detail
this one won't break 50k votes
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#404 | FateStayAlbion | Posted 11/20/2011 8:55:55 PM | message detail
I hope Subby/scorpy outdo X in % so I can have unrealistic expectations that they can beat X.
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#405 | charmander6000 | Posted 11/20/2011 8:57:19 PM | message detail
If they do that MMX/Zero are going to get crushed.
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/Rivalry%20BOP.xls
Rivalry Rumble: 33/36 Today: Mega Man X/Zero
#406 | LeonhartFour | Posted 11/20/2011 8:58:07 PM | message detail

From: FateStayAlbion | #404
I hope Subby/scorpy outdo X in % so I can have unrealistic expectations that they can beat X.


uhhhh

"Unrealistic expectations of victory" would transfer to X/Zero in that case.

DK/K. Rool would rock Bartz/Gilgamesh
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#407 | tennisboy213 | Posted 11/20/2011 9:01:18 PM | message detail
Mega Man X vs. Zero 84% 21
Bartz Klauser vs. Gilgamesh 16% 4
TOTAL VOTES 25
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#408 | foxhead84 | Posted 11/20/2011 9:01:23 PM | message detail
Vote Accepted

Mega Man X vs. Zero 87.18% 34
Bartz Klauser vs. Gilgamesh 12.82% 5
TOTAL VOTES 39
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#409 | LeonhartFour | Posted 11/20/2011 9:01:23 PM | message detail
Vote Accepted

Mega Man X vs. Zero 82.35% 14
Bartz Klauser vs. Gilgamesh 17.65% 3
TOTAL VOTES 17
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#410 | BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 11/20/2011 9:01:38 PM | message detail
Damn I love that X pic
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Game of the decade? More like Guru of the decade mirite?
#411 | LeonhartFour | Posted 11/20/2011 9:01:52 PM | message detail
68.61% for Sonic/Robotnik.

Not bad.
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#412 | GrapefruitKing | Posted 11/20/2011 9:01:54 PM | message detail
pretty low % for Sonic, only 68%
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Today's Prediction: X/Zero - 75.02%
#413 | SuperAngelo128 | Posted 11/20/2011 9:02:03 PM | message detail
*insert copy paste of current results*
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#414 | th3l3fty | Posted 11/20/2011 9:02:10 PM | message detail
perfect battle brackets reduced by one (banked)

welp
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#415 | Justin_Crossing | Posted 11/20/2011 9:02:24 PM | message detail

From: tennisboy213 | #407
Mega Man X vs. Zero 84% 21
Bartz Klauser vs. Gilgamesh 16% 4
TOTAL VOTES 25


Vote Accepted

Mega Man X vs. Zero 84% 21
Bartz Klauser vs. Gilgamesh 16% 4
TOTAL VOTES 25

what the hell how did we get the exact same
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#416 | LeonhartFour | Posted 11/20/2011 9:02:39 PM | message detail
Oh cool, moved up 1 spot in the regular leaderboard and 3 spots in the Battle Challenge.
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#417 | FateStayAlbion | Posted 11/20/2011 9:02:50 PM | message detail
Bad performance. Probably drops under a tripling after the nasty anti FF board vote is out of the way
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#418 | TheOneAboveAll | Posted 11/20/2011 9:02:57 PM | message detail
I'm telling you, battle perfects have got to be stalking the stats topic. It's the only explanation.
#419 | pjbasis | Posted 11/20/2011 9:02:58 PM | message detail
Keeping the beast down.

No quadrupling here
#420 | charmander6000 | Posted 11/20/2011 9:03:56 PM | message detail
Updated Top 10

Top 10 Hardest Matches to Predict
1. Big Boss/The Boss vs. Tidus/Jecht – Round 1 – 55.06%
2. Phoenix Wright/Miles Edgeworth vs. Gordon Freeman/Dr. Breen – Round 1 – 57.30%
3. Luigi/Waluigi vs. Cecil Harvey/Golbez – Round 1 – 60.19%
4. Ike/Black Knight vs. Conker/Great Mighty Poo – Round 1 – 63.37%
5. Frog/Magus vs. Raiden/Vamp – Round 1 – 66.12%
6. Alucard/Dracula vs. Commander Shepard/Saren – Round 1 – 67.82%
7. Siegfried/Nightmare vs. Ramza Beoulve/Delita Hyral – Round 1 – 68.03%
8. Sonic the Hedgehog/Dr. Robotnik vs. Kirby/Meta Knight – Round 2 – 68.61%
9. Kirby/Meta Knight vs. Jill Valentine/Nemesis – Round 1 – 69.43%
10. Bartz/Gilgamesh vs. Guybrush/LeChuck – Round 1 – 69.70%
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/Rivalry%20BOP.xls
Rivalry Rumble: 33/36 Today: Mega Man X/Zero
#421 | LeonhartFour | Posted 11/20/2011 9:04:08 PM | message detail

From: TheOneAboveAll | #418
I'm telling you, battle perfects have got to be stalking the stats topic. It's the only explanation.


A lot of those battle perfects are Board 8ers and their alts. It's not too surprising.
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#422 | _Regaro_ | Posted 11/20/2011 9:04:32 PM | message detail

From: TheOneAboveAll | #418
I'm telling you, battle perfects have got to be stalking the stats topic. It's the only explanation.


hi
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#423 | BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 11/20/2011 9:05:06 PM | message detail
Bad performance? I think people are underestimating Bartz/Gilgy here. We saw what Dissidia did for Kefka/Terra. I think my oracle was 77% or so.
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Game of the decade? More like Guru of the decade mirite?
#424 | khaq_fu | Posted 11/20/2011 9:06:12 PM | message detail

From: LeonhartFour | Posted: 11/20/2011 11:02:39 PM | #416
Oh cool, moved up 1 spot in the regular leaderboard and 3 spots in the Battle Challenge.


I'm still perfect (along with my main), it just booted me off the leaderboard for some unknown reason.

BACON!!
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#425 | tennisboy213 | Posted 11/20/2011 9:06:21 PM | message detail
Justin_Crossing posted...
From: tennisboy213 | #407
Mega Man X vs. Zero 84% 21
Bartz Klauser vs. Gilgamesh 16% 4
TOTAL VOTES 25
Vote Accepted

Mega Man X vs. Zero 84% 21
Bartz Klauser vs. Gilgamesh 16% 4
TOTAL VOTES 25

what the hell how did we get the exact same


Interesting.
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#426 | FateStayAlbion | Posted 11/20/2011 9:06:56 PM | message detail
BlAcK TuRtLe posted...
Bad performance? I think people are underestimating Bartz/Gilgy here. We saw what Dissidia did for Kefka/Terra. I think my oracle was 77% or so.

Bartz literally couldn't even double Guybrush
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#427 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 11/20/2011 9:07:33 PM | message detail
This is about what we expected from X/Zero in this match, so I wouldn't call it a bad performance. Of course, X/Zero should collapse near the end of the night vote and into the morning vote.
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#428 | red sox 777 | Posted 11/20/2011 9:08:08 PM | message detail
Vincent got the same percentage on Guybrush as X/Zero are getting on Bartz/Gilgamesh right now, so.......doubling Vincent would be really good! Really really good!
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#429 | LeonhartFour | Posted 11/20/2011 9:08:29 PM | message detail
Whoo, X-Stats.

North Division Lower Half

Sonic the Hedgehog vs. Dr. Robotnik – 50.00%
Kirby vs. Meta Knight – 37.79%
Jill Valentine vs. Nemesis – 31.39%
Katherine vs. Catherine – 26.88%

Northeast Division Upper Half

Mega Man X vs. Zero – 50.00%
Bartz Klauser vs. Gilgamesh – 22.44%
Captain Falcon vs. Black Shadow – 19.55%
Guybrush Threepwood vs. LeChuck – 16.05%
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#430 | LeonhartFour | Posted 11/20/2011 9:08:53 PM | message detail

From: FateStayAlbion | #426
Bartz literally couldn't even double Guybrush


Yes, and Guybrush is projected to get 16% on X/Zero right now.

Not seeing a problem with that projection.
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#431 | Team Rocket Elite (Moderator) | Posted 11/20/2011 9:09:27 PM | message detail
Score-Brackets-% Right
34------458--------98.03
33------307--------85.02
32------605--------81.98
31------1224------80.23
30------1811------78.91
29------2127------73.20
28------2078------72.43
27------1962------67.43
26------1563------63.66
25------1201------55.29
24------781--------58.77
23------519--------46.05
22------362--------45.86
21------163--------39.88
20------115--------27.83
19------84----------28.57
18------47----------14.89
17------20----------30.00
16------23----------21.74
15------13----------15.38
14------9------------22.22
13------4------------0.00
12------0------------0.00
11------4------------0.00
10------8------------0.00
9--------4------------25.00
8--------1------------100.00

Everyone with score 7 or less got the match wrong.

The perfects weren't fooled on this one. Nearly all of them get the match right again and they once again do quite a bit better than the -1s. Other than that, it's a fairly normal chart.

5 people fell off the Top 50. rpgsruleall, DivineKrystal, hylianknight3, wahkomasta and TienLen did not have Sonic vs. Dr. Robotnik winning.
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#432 | charmander6000 | Posted 11/20/2011 9:11:19 PM | message detail
77% is an okay score, but Europe (UK) is not going to be kind to him in a few hours.
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/Rivalry%20BOP.xls
Rivalry Rumble: 33/36 Today: Mega Man X/Zero
#433 | GrapefruitKing | Posted 11/20/2011 9:11:35 PM | message detail
should end up at exactly 75.02% AS EXPECTED
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Today's Prediction: X/Zero - 75.02%
#434 | LeonhartFour | Posted 11/20/2011 9:12:58 PM | message detail
I dunno if Bartz/Gilgamesh will do all that much damage to him since old FF games aren't very popular there either. X/Zero finished less than half a percent from where he was at the end of the first hour to the end of the match against Falcon.
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#435 | charmander6000 | Posted 11/20/2011 9:13:37 PM | message detail
Europe hates Falcon too.
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Rivalry Rumble: 33/36 Today: Mega Man X/Zero
#436 | LeonhartFour | Posted 11/20/2011 9:14:12 PM | message detail
And Europe doesn't really like old FF either.

That's kind of the point.
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#437 | TheCodeisBosco | Posted 11/20/2011 9:14:17 PM | message detail
Damn, FFV pair doin' work here! Really, this doesn't reflect poorly on X/Zero or anything, IMO; but even still, I'm hoping the MK pair does great tomorrow, so that some upset hype gets going.
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#438 | LeonhartFour | Posted 11/20/2011 9:15:27 PM | message detail | (edited)

From: TheCodeisBosco | #437
FFV pair doin' work here!


...what?

I really don't get you people!
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#439 | LOLContests | Posted 11/20/2011 9:17:18 PM | message detail
And Europe doesn't really like old FF either.

That's kind of the point.


But FFV was released in Europe/NA for the same system as opposed to the other old school Square games which were never released in Europe for the SNES.
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#440 | LeonhartFour | Posted 11/20/2011 9:18:48 PM | message detail

From: LOLContests | #439
But FFV was released in Europe/NA for the same system as opposed to the other old school Square games which were never released in Europe for the SNES.


FFV wasn't released in Europe or the U.S. until FF Anthologies.

FFV is almost certainly the weakest FF out of all the ones we've had in this contest, and by a decent margin, at that.
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#441 | charmander6000 | Posted 11/20/2011 9:21:54 PM | message detail
I'd say Bartz gets most of his strength from Dissidia anyways.
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Rivalry Rumble: 33/36 Today: Mega Man X/Zero
#442 | LOLContests | Posted 11/20/2011 9:24:01 PM | message detail
My point is that FFIV and FFVI perform worse in Europe relative to the U.S. because they were never released for the SNES there. FFV does not that issue relative to the U.S. because it was released for the SNES in neither region.
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#443 | LeonhartFour | Posted 11/20/2011 9:25:48 PM | message detail
It's not really an issue of relative to the U.S. It's an issue of relative to MMX/Zero.
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#444 | LeonhartFour | Posted 11/20/2011 9:26:49 PM | message detail
Huh, at first I thought X/Zero only jumped up a few hundredths of a percent.

Then I did a double take and saw that they jumped up over a full percent there.
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#445 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 11/20/2011 9:26:52 PM | message detail
Pretty much any character can overperform in Europe if they are up against Mega Man (or its other characters) just because Europe (mainly the UK) hates Mega Man.
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#446 | LeonhartFour | Posted 11/20/2011 9:27:37 PM | message detail

From: -LusterSoldier- | #445
Pretty much any character can overperform in Europe if they are up against Mega Man (or its other characters) just because Europe (mainly the UK) hates Mega Man.


Oh, I'm not saying X/Zero's percentage won't drop overnight.

But it's not like facing off against Sonic or something here.
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#447 | XIII_rocks | Posted 11/20/2011 9:28:19 PM | message detail

From: -LusterSoldier- | #445
Pretty much any character can overperform in Europe if they are up against Mega Man (or its other characters) just because Europe (mainly the UK) hates Mega Man.


We don't hate Megaman

he's just absolutely and utterly irrelevant in every way. Nobody's heard of him.
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#448 | BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 11/20/2011 9:28:54 PM | message detail
X/Zero will drop off overnight, but the beauty is that with a 24 hour match, they will gain everything back and more with the day/SNV
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Game of the decade? More like Guru of the decade mirite?
#449 | LeonhartFour | Posted 11/20/2011 9:34:46 PM | message detail
Yesterday's chart:

Time | Kirmeta | Sonik | Votes | Demographic
EBV | 39.53% | 60.47% | 678 | (0:00-0:05)
PHV | 40.00% | 60.00% | 4682 | (0:00-1:00)
FNV | 37.86% | 62.14% | 10235 | (1:00-6:00)
BSV | 35.89% | 64.11% | 4815 | (6:00-9:00)
DSV | 37.42% | 62.58% | 13410 | (9:00-14:30)
ASV | 37.93% | 62.07% | 13872 | (14:30-22:00)
SNV | 38.25% | 61.75% | 2761 | (22:00-24:00)

Trends go basically as expected here. No drastic swings on the weekend.
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#450 | LeonhartFour | Posted 11/20/2011 9:46:55 PM | message detail
79% breached.

If they can get up to 80%+ before the dead zone vote, they should be fine for finishing in the high 70s.
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