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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1021

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#451 | KingBartz | Posted 11/20/2011 9:50:48 PM | message detail

From: LeonhartFour | #450
If they can get up to 80%+ before the dead zone vote, they should be fine for finishing in the high 70s.


All according to plan.
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#452 | LeonhartFour | Posted 11/20/2011 10:03:52 PM | message detail
Hmmm...Vote totals for this match are ahead of the pace set by the last two matches so far.
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#453 | Kotetsu534 | Posted 11/21/2011 12:15:40 AM | message detail
I've been thinking (shows how bored I am >.>) about theme music for each rivalry. And man, these pairs have some awesome music available for them:

X vs. Zero
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_eFI0UFfAJE

Battle with Gilgamesh
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6CMTXyExkeI
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#454 | UltimaterializerX | Posted 11/21/2011 12:21:59 AM | message detail
2 of the best 20 or so gaming songs ever.
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#455 | shane15 | Posted 11/21/2011 3:21:54 AM | message detail
Finally on the bracket leaderboard at #50.Thought i'd make the battle one before contest though >_>
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#456 | th3l3fty | Posted 11/21/2011 10:58:52 AM | message detail
a lot of us expected to be on the battle leaderboard at this point

accursed hivemind
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#457 | Guess how many teens | Posted 11/21/2011 12:25:01 PM | message detail
I think we won't be hiveminding on Sora/Dante, hopefully by that time we'll be down to 90ish.

And I still don't know who I'm picking there >_>
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#458 | th3l3fty | Posted 11/21/2011 12:34:09 PM | message detail
every time we think that's going to happen, we end up losing around 5 people!
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#459 | Ultimaphazon | Posted 11/21/2011 2:26:09 PM | message detail
I'm pretty sure the Battlers will hivemind a Sora pick. And if all goes according to plan, they will lose somewhere around 100,000 points.
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#460 | SuperAngelo128 | Posted 11/21/2011 2:28:32 PM | message detail
X vs. Zero song is very awesome

Gilg not bad
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#461 | Big Bob | Posted 11/21/2011 3:12:18 PM | message detail
The hivemind should be split on Chell/Frog and Dante/Sora. Good thing I know who I'm picking for those two!
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#462 | BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 11/21/2011 3:19:14 PM | message detail
Hivemind would do well to stick with Frog there. Not sure why everyone is so down on Raiden/Vamp given what we saw in the voteins. I'd take Fox/Wolf to at least 55-45 Chell/Glados.
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#463 | PartOfYourWorld | Posted 11/21/2011 3:19:47 PM | message detail

From: Big Bob | #461
The hivemind should be split on Chell/Frog and Dante/Sora.


I don't expect it, honestly. We've overwhelmingly sided with the favorite in close matches, even if the favorite was barely one at that. The perfects will be hugely favoring Frog/Magus. Hard to say what will happen in the last match because a lot can happen in two weeks (Waluigi can somehow win and poof, no more perfects), but I'd imagine very few will support Dante.
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#464 | PartOfYourWorld | Posted 11/21/2011 3:22:23 PM | message detail

From: BlAcK TuRtLe | #462
I'd take Fox/Wolf to at least 55-45 Chell/Glados.


Yeah, but they might also beat Frog/Magus without much trouble. I'd definitely take Fox over either of them based on the last two years, and Fox/Wolf ain't a junk rivalry. Their games may be weak, but voters at least understand it's a legit rivalry, and that seems to go far.
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#465 | charmander6000 | Posted 11/21/2011 3:24:24 PM | message detail
The hivemind will probably have something like 90% support for the favourites
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/Rivalry%20BOP.xls
Rivalry Rumble: 33/36 Today: Mega Man X/Zero
#466 | HaRRicH | Posted 11/21/2011 3:37:39 PM | message detail
The contest answered our biggest question when it came to many matches: how much does the rivalry matter? That's how Phoenix/Miles's prediction in the battle was significantly higher than it was in the bracket, for example. When it comes to these now-disputed matches, however, I don't think the hivemind-mentality will maintain -- certainly not in the same way, anyway.
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#467 | Big Bob | Posted 11/21/2011 3:58:18 PM | message detail
So...we have until Trainers/Fighters for a true tossup match to shake the battle brackets? Geez.
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#468 | LOLContests | Posted 11/21/2011 4:03:16 PM | message detail
Jeez, ASV, get a move on.
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#469 | PartOfYourWorld | Posted 11/21/2011 4:07:19 PM | message detail

From: Big Bob | #467
So...we have until Trainers/Fighters for a true tossup match to shake the battle brackets? Geez.


Well, you never know. Any upset over the next 14 days (GlaDOS, Dante, Phoenix, even Waluigi) would shake things up plenty, if not outright destroy all the top brackets. If everything goes as planned, though, then yeah that should be the first really varied battle match.
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#470 | FateStayAlbion | Posted 11/21/2011 4:08:45 PM | message detail
Wait, Dante winning would be an upset? I just picked him without really thinking much about it
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#471 | transience | Posted 11/21/2011 4:09:21 PM | message detail
let's try and make this interesting. 50 posts for a 24 hour match is shameful.

Mario/Sonic, percentages?
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#472 | th3l3fty | Posted 11/21/2011 4:10:45 PM | message detail

From: LOLContests | #468
Jeez, ASV, get a move on.


I'm liking this glacial pace myself!
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#473 | KamikazePotato | Posted 11/21/2011 4:14:01 PM | message detail
Mario wins
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#474 | PartOfYourWorld | Posted 11/21/2011 4:14:45 PM | message detail

From: FateStayAlbion | #470
Wait, Dante winning would be an upset? I just picked him without really thinking much about it


Sora is almost a 3:1 favorite in the Guru.
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#475 | PartOfYourWorld | Posted 11/21/2011 4:16:48 PM | message detail

From: transience | #471
let's try and make this interesting. 50 posts for a 24 hour match is shameful.

Mario/Sonic, percentages?


65/35 or worse. Sonic should do better alone, but Robotnik will hurt him in this case. Sonic/Eggman is iconic enough to trounce a completely non-iconic pairing like Kirby's, but against Mario/Bowser? Bad times.
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#476 | transience | Posted 11/21/2011 4:17:35 PM | message detail
I think it could be really really bad (Mario World/Sonic 2), or really good (Mario/Shadow). dun dun dun.
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#477 | charmander6000 | Posted 11/21/2011 4:20:33 PM | message detail
Sonic pulls the upset then loses to MMX/Zero who then loses to the Bosses which finally lose to the Snakes.
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/Rivalry%20BOP.xls
Rivalry Rumble: 33/36 Today: Mega Man X/Zero
#478 | BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 11/21/2011 4:26:09 PM | message detail
Mega Man managed what, 42% or so? Sonic should get around 40%.

Then again, Robotnic and Bowser might have an impact on that.
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#479 | KamikazePotato | Posted 11/21/2011 4:27:59 PM | message detail
It's probably be really bad. It's like taking everything that's Mario>Sonic and amplifying it. Mario is better than Sonic, Bowser is better than Robotnik, has a more classic rivalry, a more persisting and well-known rivalry to this day, ect. And that's before potential SFF.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#480 | KingButz | Posted 11/21/2011 4:41:20 PM | message detail
http://image.com.com/gamefaqs/images/rivals/rivals-36.jpg

One new pic. wtf at the MK duo there
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#481 | UltimaterializerX | Posted 11/21/2011 4:45:29 PM | message detail
I used a promo poster from that MK vs DC game for it.

Can't find the one with Scorpion at the moment, but it looked like this: http://www.techshout.com/images/mortal-kombat-vs-dc-universe-game.jpg
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#482 | swirIdude | Posted 11/21/2011 4:48:16 PM | message detail
Team DK Have the clear pic advantage.

Not that this should matter, considering he's DK.
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#483 | __Smurf__ | Posted 11/21/2011 4:49:46 PM | message detail
My theory on Mario/Sonic is the curve warps towards Sonic on character strength and Mario on game strength. Basically the split part of the fan base prefer Mario games and Sonic characters. As far as I can see there's been just 3 situations of a Sonic character facing a Mario character and the Sonic character overperformed quite noticeably on all 3 occasions.

Shadow vs Wario
Shadow vs Mario
Sonic vs Luigi

And with video games the reverse with several Sonic games on the end of beatings.

The problem with rivalrys is it draws on a relationship within a game. It blurs the line between the game and the characters so I'm not sure who that'll favour. May just wind up cancelling each other out and not end up with anything especially unusual. 60/40 seems about right.
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#484 | SuorGenoveffa | Posted 11/21/2011 4:54:05 PM | message detail | (edited)
I actually like the MK pic quite a bit, they're easily recognizable and I like how they're facing each other.
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#485 | transience | Posted 11/21/2011 5:02:02 PM | message detail
Sonic didn't overperform on Luigi. he performed as expected. same with Wario - Wario is actually really weak and we just assumed he was worth a damn back in 2003.

I figure that Shadow/Mario is pre-Boost so we won't see another performance like that again. 60/40 doesn't seem unreasonable but I'd probably go more towards 65-35.
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#486 | th3l3fty | Posted 11/21/2011 5:09:09 PM | message detail
I like the MK pic a lot, even if it is overshadowed by DK/K.Rool's bright colors
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#487 | HaRRicH | Posted 11/21/2011 5:25:00 PM | message detail
__Smurf__ posted...
As far as I can see there's been just 3 situations of a Sonic character facing a Mario character and the Sonic character overperformed quite noticeably on all 3 occasions.

Shadow vs Wario
Shadow vs Mario
Sonic vs Luigi

And with video games the reverse with several Sonic games on the end of beatings.


Didn't Luigi do roughly as expected against Sonic? This also ignores four-ways, such as when Yoshi easily beat Knuckles and Bowser crushed Shadow. Speaking of Shadow, I don't think you can have both of Shadow's matches be a fluke without then asking why it's any less likely Shadow was just that strong in 2003. Shadow's track-record post-2003 is bad, but there's not much else to support the idea of Sonic-characters improving against Nintendo-characters, especially when they're as "almost Nintendo" now as ever before.

I'm still not a fan of the idea of Mario-games SFF'ing Sonic-games either.


I think Mario/Bowser's going big on Sonic/Robotnik. Mario > Sonic, Bowser >> Robotnik (if you believe Ganon SFF'd him, try Bowser), Nintendo >> Sega, at least six Mario-games beat any Sonic-game, and at least four Nintendo-systems beat the Genesis. All that's before considering their rivalries, which Mario/Bowser take handily as well. Samus and Mega Man show what Mario can do to his fellow platforming competition, plus Mega Man also shows us what Mario thinks of "almost Nintendo."

I'll guess 65%.
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#488 | LeonhartFour | Posted 11/21/2011 5:26:24 PM | message detail
Sub-Zero vs. Scorpion pic is pretty awesome. It's a bit dark in contrast to DK/K. Rool, but the STAREDOWN rocks.
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#489 | KingButz | Posted 11/21/2011 5:27:24 PM | message detail
It's too dark in contrast to DK. It just looks like a dark "something."
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#490 | LeonhartFour | Posted 11/21/2011 5:32:07 PM | message detail

From: KingButz | #489
It's too dark in contrast to DK. It just looks like a dark "something."


If you can't tell what's going on, then I don't know what to tell you! The blue mask and yellow mask stand out well enough.
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#491 | HaRRicH | Posted 11/21/2011 5:32:14 PM | message detail
Sub/Scorp have a great pic with poor lighting. It'll still be enough to make DK/K.Rool choke on their bananas.
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#492 | UltimaterializerX | Posted 11/21/2011 5:35:04 PM | message detail
I tried a brightness filter and it made the pic look like absolute crap. The issue is just the other picture being a lot brighter, really.

Do you guys like the fonts I went with or are they kinda lame?
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#493 | charmander6000 | Posted 11/21/2011 7:08:43 PM | message detail
Match XXXVI: (3) Donkey Kong/King K. Rool vs. (2) Sub-Zero/Scorpion

Previous Round

Donkey Kong/King K. Rool – 60.20%
Ezio Auditore da Firenze/Rodrigo Borgia – 39.80%

Sub-Zero/Scorpion – 73.22%
Leon Kennedy/Ada Wong – 26.78%

Analysis

Donkey Kong and King K. Rool may have impressed me with the way they easily won their match, however Sub-Zero and Scorpion took it to another level. I never would have expected that someone with Leon’s strength would be reduced to such levels by Sub-Zero and Scorpion and I were already calling them one of the stronger pairs in the contest. If there was any sort of debate pre-contest last round quiet that down.

I and many others would probably take Sub-Zero over Donkey Kong without too much trouble. Add in that Scorpion would have no problem with King K. Rool and that they have a stronger rivalry we could be in for another easy win. I feel that Donkey Kong and King K. Rool will fare better compare to Leon and Ada last round. That pair’s rivalry is weak while Donkey Kong and King K. Rool at least have an iconic main character villain thing that fans can nostalgic over.

While Leon is far stronger than Donkey Kong we saw how little that helped him when he was almost tripled in the previous round. While I wouldn’t be totally surprised to see Sub-Zero and Scorpion match last round’s performance I feel that they will be struggling to double Donkey Kong and King K. Rool.

charmander6000’s Bracket: Sub-Zero/Scorpion > Donkey Kong/King K. Rool

charmander6000’s Prediction: Sub-Zero/Scorpion wins, 65.42% - 34.58%
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Rivalry Rumble: 33/36 Today: Mega Man X/Zero
#494 | redrocket | Posted 11/21/2011 7:16:00 PM | message detail
UltimaterializerX posted...
I tried a brightness filter and it made the pic look like absolute crap. The issue is just the other picture being a lot brighter, really.

Do you guys like the fonts I went with or are they kinda lame?


I like what you did with the fonts. Thematic but not to the point of being cheesy or unreadable.
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#495 | MoogleKupo141 | Posted 11/21/2011 7:29:33 PM | message detail
this is kind of silly, but I wish people would be more consistant with their art like in the Sub/Scorp pic

The DK/K Rool picture is alright and all, but DK is all hyper cartoony Mario Party style, and K Rool is DKC2 and they just don't go together quite right
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#496 | LeonhartFour | Posted 11/21/2011 7:42:23 PM | message detail

From: MoogleKupo141 | #495
this is kind of silly, but I wish people would be more consistant with their art like in the Sub/Scorp pic


This is a legit complaint.
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#497 | UltimaterializerX | Posted 11/21/2011 7:59:31 PM | message detail

From: MoogleKupo141 | #495
this is kind of silly, but I wish people would be more consistant with their art like in the Sub/Scorp pic

The DK/K Rool picture is alright and all, but DK is all hyper cartoony Mario Party style, and K Rool is DKC2 and they just don't go together quite right


Agree so hard, though the complaining that comes from mashups can be hilarious. vcharon during Yuna's loss was a classic read.
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#498 | pjbasis | Posted 11/21/2011 8:00:20 PM | message detail
Chris/Wesker to div finals
#499 | LeonhartFour | Posted 11/21/2011 8:00:52 PM | message detail

From: pjbasis | #498
Chris/Wesker to div finals


Uncanny
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#500 | LeonhartFour | Posted 11/21/2011 8:00:59 PM | message detail