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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1020

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#351 | GrapefruitKing | Posted 11/18/2011 11:32:24 AM | message detail
the ASV says HELLO
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~ Rivalry Rumble Oracle Challenge ~ Rank - 31st
Today's Prediction: Sora / Riku - 61.68%
#352 | WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 11/18/2011 11:33:04 AM | message detail
If the rallying completely dies for Hitler here, we could see the most dominant ASV ever.
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#353 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 11/18/2011 11:33:52 AM | message detail
Those last 2 updates could possibly be blamed on Hitler's votes falling off a cliff compared the updates at the beginning of this hour. We'll just wait and see if it's just a false alarm.
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#354 | Master Moltar | Posted 11/18/2011 11:33:55 AM | message detail
like clockwork
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#355 | WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 11/18/2011 11:35:14 AM | message detail | (edited)
#356 | GrapefruitKing | Posted 11/18/2011 11:36:33 AM | message detail
this will be brutal
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~ Rivalry Rumble Oracle Challenge ~ Rank - 31st
Today's Prediction: Sora / Riku - 61.68%
#357 | LeonhartFour | Posted 11/18/2011 11:36:39 AM | message detail
Yeah, trying to draw conclusions from either match for Dante vs. Sora next round is probably a mistake. Guilty Gear guys are going to be bottom 5 in the X-Stats, if not the worst. Fodderific blowouts are what Dante does best.

Also, ASV have arrived

Look at those KH boys go
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#358 | AxemRedRanger | Posted 11/18/2011 11:36:49 AM | message detail
Sora/Riku have increased their lead by over 200 in the last three updates.
gg hitler
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#359 | LeonhartFour | Posted 11/18/2011 11:38:22 AM | message detail
Also, for whatever vote-in stats are worth, the Bosses got 60.73% on Hitler. I think mid-to-high 50s is a solid performance for Sora/Riku, honestly.
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#360 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 11/18/2011 11:38:37 AM | message detail
This match is just barely ahead of the Bosses match for votes at this point in time. So obviously the rallies will die out soon, and this match will fail to break 40000 votes.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as BlAcK TuRtLe, Guru Champ!
#361 | YoAriel33 | Posted 11/18/2011 11:41:07 AM | message detail

From: LeonhartFour | #357
Yeah, trying to draw conclusions from either match for Dante vs. Sora next round is probably a mistake.


I'm only making this argument with regards to the perfect battlers going into that match. Assuming we see no R2 upsets before then, I'm guessing we have at least 50 perfects after Squall beats Nightmare. I'm trying to gauge how those ~50 people will act.
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#362 | IngmarBirdman | Posted 11/18/2011 11:41:26 AM | message detail
Bah, I was hoping Hitler was going to flop in the Oracle. How much % did he bleed during his vote-in?
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#363 | LeonhartFour | Posted 11/18/2011 11:42:55 AM | message detail

From: YoAriel33 | #361
I'm only making this argument with regards to the perfect battlers going into that match. Assuming we see no R2 upsets before then, I'm guessing we have at least 50 perfects after Squall beats Nightmare. I'm trying to gauge how those ~50 people will act.


I honestly don't think either side would ever feel confident with either team come match time unless Sora/Riku hit like 70% or something.
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#364 | FateStayAlbion | Posted 11/18/2011 11:43:13 AM | message detail
Ack, I go AFK for 45 minutes and Hitler falls apart. I need to put those topics back up asap
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#365 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 11/18/2011 11:43:49 AM | message detail
IngmarBirdman | Posted 11/18/2011 2:41:26 PM | message detail | quote
Bah, I was hoping Hitler was going to flop in the Oracle. How much % did he bleed during his vote-in?


https://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=0AgBWiYjlMLwYdFQyTTRVdUZaeWhfbTJQSDJPRVo2ZGc&gid=1

22.75% to 14.39%, which was 8.36% total.
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#366 | LeonhartFour | Posted 11/18/2011 11:45:09 AM | message detail
#367 | Ultimaphazon | Posted 11/18/2011 11:47:14 AM | message detail
Show some respect for Albion, Leon. He singlehandedly gave Hogger the win. >_>
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#368 | swordz9 | Posted 11/18/2011 11:47:46 AM | message detail
Sora's got this. Are the R2 matches really going to be 24 hours?
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#369 | Gooper Blooper | Posted 11/18/2011 11:48:02 AM | message detail
This just in: Kids hate Hitler.
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#370 | LeonhartFour | Posted 11/18/2011 11:48:04 AM | message detail

From: swordz9 | #368
Sora's got this. Are the R2 matches really going to be 24 hours?


Yes, they really are.
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#371 | LeonhartFour | Posted 11/18/2011 11:48:48 AM | message detail
Sora/Riku have gone up about .7% in the last 45 minutes.
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#372 | th3l3fty | Posted 11/18/2011 11:48:51 AM | message detail

From: FateStayAlbion | #364
Ack, I go AFK for 45 minutes and Hitler falls apart. I need to put those topics back up asap


do you really have nothing better to do than spend hours working on rallies that aren't even doing anything?
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#373 | swordz9 | Posted 11/18/2011 11:49:25 AM | message detail
LeonhartFour posted...
Yes, they really are.

Oh joy. Well at least 2-3 of them might be interesting I guess.
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#374 | LeonhartFour | Posted 11/18/2011 11:51:35 AM | message detail
I like 24 hour matches, honestly. People will groan and moan about "Oh man 24 hours of Mario/Bowser vs. Ike/Black Knight?! What a terrible format!"

But a 24-hour good match is better than a 12-hour good match.

Of course, we'll see if we actually get a good match first.
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#375 | FateStayAlbion | Posted 11/18/2011 11:53:25 AM | message detail | (edited)
24 hours is better for GOOD matches. The majority of matches are pretty bad though and don't need to go over 12 hours.
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#376 | KingButz | Posted 11/18/2011 11:54:58 AM | message detail
Sora starting to dominate. I have a feeling that once Europe goes to sleep this could end up 60-40
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#377 | IngmarBirdman | Posted 11/18/2011 11:56:29 AM | message detail
Holy cow does Europe hate Kingdom Hearts?
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#378 | transcience | Posted 11/18/2011 11:57:42 AM | message detail
it's too bad 24 hrs aren't round 3 and on. round 2 is going to be pretty dull besides a couple of fascinating ones.
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#379 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 11/18/2011 11:57:52 AM | message detail
Kingdom Hearts is weaker in Europe, although the rallies are affecting Europe's percentage far more than the North America percentage.
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#380 | GranzonEx | Posted 11/18/2011 12:01:15 PM | message detail

From: transcience | #378
it's too bad 24 hrs aren't round 3 and on. round 2 is going to be pretty dull besides a couple of fascinating ones.


Does R2 have anything other than RE vs MGS? CT should stomp Portal easily.
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#381 | transcience | Posted 11/18/2011 12:01:52 PM | message detail
and as for the theoretical 47 match streak, Dante/Sora is just the beginning of the landmines. Ryu/Red, Sub/X, Alucard, Squall/Sora.... if we somehow go 47 matches with 50 people riding the cookie, it will be a scary week for those people.
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iphonesience
#382 | LeonhartFour | Posted 11/18/2011 12:02:46 PM | message detail
#383 | WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 11/18/2011 12:04:35 PM | message detail
Clearly all the kiddies getting out of history class will vote Hitler to spite their teachers.
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#384 | LeonhartFour | Posted 11/18/2011 12:06:18 PM | message detail
These are the kids who just got out of their WW2 history class.
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#385 | KamikazePotato | Posted 11/18/2011 12:10:13 PM | message detail
Secret nazi sympathizer vote
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#386 | TRE Public Account | Posted 11/18/2011 12:17:25 PM | message detail
Ack, I go AFK for 45 minutes and Hitler falls apart. I need to put those topics back up asap

I think Hitler is pretty much done at this point. He could barely keep up before and isn't going to be able to take out a 1500+ vote lead. It might be more interesting to just let the topics die and see how big a swing Sora will be able to pull rather than just trying to keep this a 55-45 match until the end.
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#387 | izNotPerfect | Posted 11/18/2011 12:18:00 PM | message detail
Does this match mean Sora is really that weak or Adolf is really that strong?
I have Sora/Riku going losing to Squall/Seifer in the division finals, should I be worried that Sora might lose to Dante/Vergil? Is Adolf really just riding a huge joke wave?
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#388 | LeonhartFour | Posted 11/18/2011 12:19:06 PM | message detail
Hitler's getting a bit of the benefit from a joke rally. This is probably 60/40-ish without any sort of rallying for Hitler. That's about expected for Sora/Riku, honestly. Dante vs. Sora was up in the air before the contest, and it still is.
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#389 | LeonhartFour | Posted 11/18/2011 12:22:12 PM | message detail
Over 1% rise for Sora/Riku in the last 80 minutes. Probably more if not for that weird spike at the end of the last hour.
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#390 | TheCodeisBosco | Posted 11/18/2011 12:49:36 PM | message detail
Personally, I don't think the vote-ins were a good indication of BJ/Adolf's strength. I'd imagine they're benefitting a fair amount from having an awesome match pic (especially since Sora and Riku have a weak one), and a fair amount people may not have even noticed that they were in the vote-in. I'd venture to guess that plenty of people were too lazy to read all the names in the vote-in poll, and just voted for the first rivalry they saw and liked.

Plus, Sol Badguy/other dude is my pick for the bracket's weakest rivalry - I honestly think that even Guybrush and LeChuck would have defeated them. So, I think there's still hope for Sora and Riku next round, though I definitely think Squall and Seifer will curb-stomp them. But I thought that before the contest even began, too. :P
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#391 | LeonhartFour | Posted 11/18/2011 1:10:16 PM | message detail
60% hour for Sora/Riku there.
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#392 | Safer Sephiroth 777 | Posted 11/18/2011 1:35:20 PM | message detail
Very good for Sora.He does what he needs to beat Dante.
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#393 | transience | Posted 11/18/2011 1:56:37 PM | message detail
man, they are putting this match away with style.
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#394 | GrapefruitKing | Posted 11/18/2011 2:03:22 PM | message detail
Soraku over 64% in the last half-hour
now I remember why KH is the king of ASV
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~ Rivalry Rumble Oracle Challenge ~ Rank - 31st
Today's Prediction: Sora / Riku - 61.68%
#395 | Ultimaphazon | Posted 11/18/2011 2:23:51 PM | message detail
It seems like the ralliers have given up. I wouldn't mind Sora rising another 3 percent for my Oracle.
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#396 | pjbasis | Posted 11/18/2011 2:49:19 PM | message detail
Definitely not a great performance.

Both of them did what they need to keep it debatable I guess, but the edge is in Dante's favor methinks.
#397 | Safer Sephiroth 777 | Posted 11/18/2011 2:57:43 PM | message detail
Nah Sora has the upper hand.But still it will be close.The winner will have no more than 53% I believe.
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#398 | charmander6000 | Posted 11/18/2011 3:07:36 PM | message detail
Looks like the rallies kicked in after I left, still Sora/Riku was never in danger of losing.

So had BJ/Adolf got Fox/Wolf, Tidus/Jecht or Frog/Magus would we have seen a different result?
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#399 | YoAriel33 | Posted 11/18/2011 3:11:05 PM | message detail
I'm going to pay very close attention to the other New Square teams next round. If they look unimpressive again, I'll be even less confident in Sora.

And for what it's worth, Ike managed a similar percentage and similar votals on the only other joke option in the contest.
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#400 | pjbasis | Posted 11/18/2011 3:23:52 PM | message detail
Meh, I don't think the Bosses are all THAT strong so I see no reason to think this is impressive by any means.