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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1020

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#301 | FateStayAlbion | Posted 11/18/2011 9:58:44 AM | message detail
Bah, missed the beginning of the match. So hows this match going? Look like Hitler has any chance?
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#302 | TRE Public Account | Posted 11/18/2011 10:00:01 AM | message detail
Hitler is down by a lot but he managed a small cut a few minutes ago. Sora probably still has this.
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#303 | WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 11/18/2011 10:00:17 AM | message detail
It took all of the rallying power to get Hitler a 7 vote cut. He might be able to make it close %-wise, but this match is over.
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#304 | Achromatic | Posted 11/18/2011 10:01:39 AM | message detail

From: WarThaNemesis2 | #303
It took all of the rallying power to get Hitler a 7 vote cut. He might be able to make it close %-wise, but this match is over.


can't sleep hitler will come back can't sleep hitler will come back.
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#305 | WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 11/18/2011 10:03:23 AM | message detail
Achromatic posted...
From: WarThaNemesis2 | #303
It took all of the rallying power to get Hitler a 7 vote cut. He might be able to make it close %-wise, but this match is over.
can't sleep hitler will come back can't sleep hitler will come back.


First they came for Sora, and I did not speak up because I had Dante next round.

Then they came for Dante, and I did not speak up because I had Squall next round.
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#306 | YoAriel33 | Posted 11/18/2011 10:04:06 AM | message detail
I can't believe that a vast majority of the remaining perfects will risk it all (a 47-match winning streak) on Sora after this. Factoring in FF7, 8, 9, 10, and now Kingdom Hearts, new Square hasn't looked as good as many people hoped. Going up against an anti-vote magnet might be what a likable character like Dante needs.
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#307 | Lavos_Fanboy | Posted 11/18/2011 10:05:19 AM | message detail
It took the the combined efforts of the United States and the Soviet Union to take down Nazi Germany. If Hitler wins this contest, SBAllen should do a bonus poll where Cloud and Link put aside their differences and join forces to take down Hitler
#308 | FateStayAlbion | Posted 11/18/2011 10:13:05 AM | message detail | (edited)
#309 | The_Djoker | Posted 11/18/2011 10:10:36 AM | message detail
I don't understand..is this legit? or is Sora/Riku disgustingly weak. I've got going past Squall and losing to Cloud/Seph.........damn.
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#310 | TRE Public Account | Posted 11/18/2011 10:12:38 AM | message detail
So uh, if this was a night match, Hitler would be winning wouldn't be?

Not likely. 56-44 is still a big gap to overcome.
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#311 | FateStayAlbion | Posted 11/18/2011 10:12:43 AM | message detail
The_Djoker posted...
I don't understand..is this legit? or is Sora/Riku disgustingly weak. I've got going past Squall and losing to Cloud/Seph.........damn.

Looking at the updater, it was like 62-63% before the rallies started. That still seems weak to me though... I can't imagine BJ/Hitler being much more than high fodder without rally power.
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#312 | AxemRedRanger | Posted 11/18/2011 10:13:11 AM | message detail
Anonymous 11/18/11(Fri)13:05 No.117254842

>>117254735

If we win here, we can get Hitler to the semis. He would face Dante next round, then Squall, then Cloud. Squall and Cloud will be easy to get anti votes for


Is this anyone here? >_>
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#313 | FateStayAlbion | Posted 11/18/2011 10:13:46 AM | message detail
TRE Public Account posted...
So uh, if this was a night match, Hitler would be winning wouldn't be?

Not likely. 56-44 is still a big gap to overcome.


While thats true, at this rate it'll probably be more like 53-54%. 3-4 is in the range where it can be overturned imo. Plus the rallies would matter more due to less votes.
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#314 | DaruniaTheGoron | Posted 11/18/2011 10:13:56 AM | message detail
ASV will push this way out of reach. Match is over.
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#315 | WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 11/18/2011 10:15:44 AM | message detail | (edited)
This is pretty much a rally + an easy anti-vote target. If it weren't for the rally Sora/Riku would probably be in the mid to upper-60s with a dominating ASV to come, which is just fine given that well, they're against a joke that did well enough for itself in vote-ins even before rallying hit. If you assume Hitler/Blaz pre-rally is around C/Katherine, the negative for this is that it pretty much proves Sora/Riku isn't quite at Sonic/Robotnik, which isn't exactly unexpected or terrible.
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#316 | ffmasterjose | Posted 11/18/2011 10:17:08 AM | message detail
Sora/Riku > Squall/Seifer was a bad pick regardless >_>
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#317 | duggie2 | Posted 11/18/2011 10:21:41 AM | message detail
KH has a terrible story and I can't believe people actually like this rivalry. I will take gamefaqs even less seriously if it wins this.
#318 | Safer Sephiroth 777 | Posted 11/18/2011 10:22:57 AM | message detail
No as I said you can't judge Sora's strenght here.Votes for Hitler are rally votes and joke votes.So that isn't saying much about their strenght.But to tell the truth if Sora passes and beats Dante too I don't think anyone will believe that he will beat Squall.There are changes but are pretty small.
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#319 | transcience | Posted 11/18/2011 10:22:59 AM | message detail
this isn't anti Sora votes. it's friggin' Hitler! (sorry, Adolf)

I have been thinking for a few days that Adolf winning would mean a match against Link. let's see if they have the manpower to actually start cutting consistenly - not to mention handle the kids coming home.

I probably would have taken this upset if I know it would only take 20k votes to win. yeesh.
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#320 | WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 11/18/2011 10:24:11 AM | message detail
And you would have lost your perfect(?) bracket/battle by picking Adolf Hitler, tranny. >_>
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#321 | th3l3fty | Posted 11/18/2011 10:24:39 AM | message detail
rally already looks like it's slowing down, so...
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#322 | DaruniaTheGoron | Posted 11/18/2011 10:25:07 AM | message detail
transcience posted...
this isn't anti Sora votes. it's friggin' Hitler! (sorry, Adolf)

I have been thinking for a few days that Adolf winning would mean a match against Link. let's see if they have the manpower to actually start cutting consistenly - not to mention handle the kids coming home.

I probably would have taken this upset if I know it would only take 20k votes to win. yeesh.


Why are completely sane stats people actually considering a comeback here?
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#323 | YoAriel33 | Posted 11/18/2011 10:25:29 AM | message detail

From: transcience | #319
this isn't anti Sora votes. it's friggin' Hitler! (sorry, Adolf)


Regardless, this has still (probably) accomplished the last thing I wanted it to: make me really hesitate about Dante/Sora. Assuming I'm lucky enough to make it that far, I don't feel good risking a 47-match streak on this.
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#324 | FateStayAlbion | Posted 11/18/2011 10:25:40 AM | message detail
Why does Kingdom Hearts still have a good asv, anyway? Its a 10 year old game and most of its fanbase is in college or working now.
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#325 | Yami_no_Geimu | Posted 11/18/2011 10:27:11 AM | message detail
Anyone help with the next few battles?

Kirby/Meta or Sonic/Robotnik?
Mega/Zero or Butz/Girugameshi?
Donkey/Pool or SubZ/Scorp?
Red/Blue or Luigi/Waluigi?

Pretty sure the last is gonna be red/blue but just wanna know what everyone else thinks...
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#326 | Iamthekuzalol | Posted 11/18/2011 10:27:43 AM | message detail
Well, FF10, 12 and 13 looked like crap in the vote-in polls too, can't believe that those rampant and rabid FF fanboys didn't even bother supporting their FF options in a freaking 12-ways poll.

New square doing sub-par at the moment and with how disappointing KH characters looked last contest, Dante > Sora certainly looks very plausible now. Dante might have choked twice, but third time's charm obviously (That was what most said when Snake went up against MM in 2006 and look what happened.)
#327 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 11/18/2011 10:28:02 AM | message detail
I'm not really expecting much of an ASV today. The ASV has looked like ass this entire contest, with the ASV dying down as early as 6:00 PM in pretty much every match I've seen so far. Kratos/Zeus was a rare exception to the rule, which rode the ASV until about 10:30 PM.
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#328 | WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 11/18/2011 10:28:21 AM | message detail
Kirby/Meta or Sonic/Robotnik? - Sonic/Robotnik
Mega/Zero or Butz/Girugameshi? - Mega/Zero
Donkey/Pool or SubZ/Scorp? - Sub/Scorp
Red/Blue or Luigi/Waluigi? - Red/Blue

Only the first one is even vaguely debatable.
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#329 | Safer Sephiroth 777 | Posted 11/18/2011 10:29:56 AM | message detail
Kirby/Meta or Sonic/Robotnik?
Sonic has a 90% chance to win.

Mega/Zero or Butz/Girugameshi?
Megaman has a 101% chance to win.

Donkey/Pool or SubZ/Scorp?

Subzero has a 100% chance to win.

Red/Blue or Luigi/Waluigi?
Red has a 101% chance to win.

There that is.
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#330 | LOLContests | Posted 11/18/2011 10:31:07 AM | message detail
Why does Kingdom Hearts still have a good asv, anyway? Its a 10 year old game and most of its fanbase is in college or working now.

It's more popular in the USA than in Europe. That's part of the reason at least. And college/working people still contribute to the ASV somewhat.
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#331 | MegatokyoEd | Posted 11/18/2011 10:32:13 AM | message detail
Hitler winning Europe is the most hilarious result ever.
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#332 | Yami_no_Geimu | Posted 11/18/2011 10:34:48 AM | message detail
Okay thanks guys.
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#333 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 11/18/2011 10:35:26 AM | message detail
LOLContests | Posted 11/18/2011 1:31:07 PM | message detail | quote
It's more popular in the USA than in Europe. That's part of the reason at least. And college/working people still contribute to the ASV somewhat.


I'm not even sure if college/working people even factor into the ASV at all. The last time we had a "What do you do for a living?" poll, it happened on a weekend, so the trends wouldn't be relevant in a weekday poll.
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#334 | MegatokyoEd | Posted 11/18/2011 10:39:04 AM | message detail
I don't know why college students wouldn't factor into the ASV. There's a good chunk that aren't going to be working during those times.
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#335 | red sox 777 | Posted 11/18/2011 10:44:14 AM | message detail
Because a significant portion of the KH fanbase is still in high school. People play and become attached to these games at very young ages.

And, because KH runs up the margins to a huge extent among high school voters. Think about what kind of margins Sora would put up on Crono if only votes from people who haven't graduated high school are counted. Probably 70+ as a wild guess, maybe higher.

In the past, we saw CT's day vote collapse in 2006, and FFVII's day vote collapse in 2009. That's 11 years and 12 years after release respectively. If KH follows the same pattern as a Square RPG, then we might expect its day vote to weaken in 2013. There is KH2 however in the picture, an equally popular direct sequel that CT and FFVII didn't really have, so KH's day vote may have more longevity. Though at the current rate of rapid site aging, the ASV may be so weak by 2013 that this is all moot anyway.
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#336 | red sox 777 | Posted 11/18/2011 10:48:08 AM | message detail
I don't know why college students wouldn't factor into the ASV. There's a good chunk that aren't going to be working during those times.

Because college students are free to vote all day, whereas high school students are not. As a high school student, you get up in the morning and go to school. You then don't have internet access to vote here until you get home. As a college student, you generally have more time in the morning when you get up to use the internet, and then you can again use the internet any time in the day you don't have classes, which is a lot more than high school students. Since you don't have to get up so early, you can also vote at night when the poll opens (for 24-hour polls). Your classes are generally spread from 8 AM to 6 PM, and may be at different times on different days.

Basically, your schedule is a lot more flexible and there are many more opportunities for you to vote earlier in the poll.
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#337 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 11/18/2011 10:48:13 AM | message detail
While the trends for the "What do you do for a living?" poll are useless in a weekday poll since that poll was on a weekend, the trends for the age polls may be of more help here.

ASV hierarchy for the last age poll: 10-13 > 14-17 > Under 10 > Over 40 > 36-40 > 31-35 > 18-20 > 26-30 > 21-25

10-13 had the best ASV, while 21-25 had the worst ASV. The 18-20 and 21-25 age groups did really bad in the ASV, and those are the age groups that represent most college students. The older age groups (31 and older) perform better than the age groups that represent most college students.
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#338 | FateStayAlbion | Posted 11/18/2011 10:48:42 AM | message detail
#339 | red sox 777 | Posted 11/18/2011 10:49:53 AM | message detail
The 18-20 and 21-25 age groups did really bad in the ASV, and those are the age groups that represent most college students. The older age groups (31 and older) perform better than the age groups that represent most college students.

That makes sense, because those groups are probably the most likely to be up at midnight to vote when the poll starts.
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#340 | AxemRedRanger | Posted 11/18/2011 10:51:03 AM | message detail
What was the most popular day poll so far?
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#341 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 11/18/2011 10:52:48 AM | message detail
red sox 777 | Posted 11/18/2011 1:49:53 PM | message detail | quote
That makes sense, because those groups are probably the most likely to be up at midnight to vote when the poll starts.


https://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=0AgBWiYjlMLwYdDNpc3FLVEkwTk1HeVJUbWVhbUpoVVE&gid=2

All of the age groups above 25 years old performed worst during the first hour of the poll, and that's because many of them are sleeping because they have to go to work in the morning.
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#342 | transcience | Posted 11/18/2011 10:59:12 AM | message detail
just wanted to say that anybody taking a match against Hitler with 28% more votes, mostly due to rallying, is crazy.

Moltar, save Sora/Dante for me if Sora holds on here!
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#343 | FateStayAlbion | Posted 11/18/2011 11:02:11 AM | message detail
#344 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 11/18/2011 11:06:29 AM | message detail
First percentage increase for Sora/Riku since the 12:10 PM update. It wasn't going to last forever, though. Besides, the ASV hasn't kicked in just yet.
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#345 | YoAriel33 | Posted 11/18/2011 11:07:26 AM | message detail

From: transcience | #342
just wanted to say that anybody taking a match against Hitler with 28% more votes, mostly due to rallying, is crazy.


Taking it what? Into consideration for R2 after Dante just put up the third biggest blowout in the contest?

I'm not feeling as confident in Sora now as I was a week ago, and I don't even have to think about the added weight of a 47-match streak yet. Are you just as confident?
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#346 | FateStayAlbion | Posted 11/18/2011 11:09:54 AM | message detail | (edited)
I personally wouldn't take anything out of either match. Guilty Gear characters are turbo fodder, and this match has almost 30% as many votes as a normal match at this point, mostly rallied votes. Sora was always going to look worse coming out of this match.

I still think its a toss up.
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#347 | WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 11/18/2011 11:11:42 AM | message detail
Well if pure votes are worth anything, Sora/Riku might outdraw Dante's entire match.
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#348 | YoAriel33 | Posted 11/18/2011 11:11:44 AM | message detail

From: FateStayAlbion | #346
I personally wouldn't take anything out of either match. Guilty Gear characters are turbo fodder, and this match has almost 30% as many votes as a normal match at this point, mostly rallied votes. Sora was always going to look worse coming out of this match.

I still think its a toss up.


And a toss-up is a terrible risk if you're carrying a 47-match winning streak.
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#349 | FateStayAlbion | Posted 11/18/2011 11:15:11 AM | message detail
YoAriel33 posted...
From: FateStayAlbion | #346
I personally wouldn't take anything out of either match. Guilty Gear characters are turbo fodder, and this match has almost 30% as many votes as a normal match at this point, mostly rallied votes. Sora was always going to look worse coming out of this match.

I still think its a toss up.
And a toss-up is a terrible risk if you're carrying a 47-match winning streak.


Gotta take risks to win!

Whoever wins that battle contest will likely get a perfect
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#350 | transcience | Posted 11/18/2011 11:30:01 AM | message detail
YoAriel33 posted...
From: transcience | #342
just wanted to say that anybody taking a match against Hitler with 28% more votes, mostly due to rallying, is crazy.
Taking it what? Into consideration for R2 after Dante just put up the third biggest blowout in the contest?

I'm not feeling as confident in Sora now as I was a week ago, and I don't even have to think about the added weight of a 47-match streak yet. Are you just as confident?


all I'm saying is that this match should be thrown out. as for Dante vs. Sol whoever, that match barely matters. did anyone really expect anything from them? they're worse than Dan and Sagat, probably, and I don't hear anyone claiming Wesker's about to beat Big Boss.

so am I confident Sora wins? of course not, it's a close match. do these two rounds tell me Dante's got this? not even a little bit.
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