GameFAQs Contests
Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1020
No one cares about SoulCalibur, so it's time for THE ENTIRE FIGHTING GENRE'S BATTLE CRY. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ekAIelXtIis ~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~ www.gamefaqscontests.com ~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~ http://board8.wikia.com/ ~*List of All Polls (a search bar is at the bottom)*~ http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html ~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~ http://www.thengamer.com/ http://thengamer.com/xstats ~*GameFAQs Contests Hall of Fame*~ http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Hall_of_Fame http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Match_Hall_of_Fame ~*Character Contest Histories*~ http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories ~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~ A = Strongest Character B = Character Weaker than A C = Character Weaker than B To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA ~*All the Match Pics*~ http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/index.php ~*Leonhart4's Trend Charts*~ https://spreadsheets.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?hl=en&key=tOGmynfNIiNy5VukpEF-PdA&hl=en#gid=0 ~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~ http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages ~*Say What? Common Stats Topic Lingo Defined*~ SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote. This is the best example of SFF we've ever seen. However take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make perfect sense. Extrapolated Standings - The mathematical "strength" of a contestant that's determined based on their performance relative to the rest of the field. This number is typically based on the contest entrant's loss, but adjustments are sometimes made. See above for a watered down explanation for how the stats are calculated. --- Yoblazer: http://oi52.tinypic.com/ad21i1.jpg Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world! |
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Glorious Squall/Seifer victory --- "I couldn't stand a day without a past or future. I need to live each moment to keep fighting here and now." |
Man this contest is the worst.We shall finish the entire contest with a lot of perfect brackets! --- GameFaqs is NOT the place to go for relationship advice.Nobody here gets any action unless it is their right or left hand.Including me.~Dawn and Dusk~ |
tag --- GameFAQs isn't going to be merged in with GameSpot or any other site. We're not going to strip out the soul of the site. -CJayC |
T/F We won't get a single match this contest with a lead change after the board vote. --- http://raptr.com/badge/cf898f37d9c30ef120ada6c35e636ad3/fs.png http://myanimelist.net/signature/RyanSaotome.png |
False - Cloud/Snake --- I wish I could wear skirts and dresses :( -GMUN |
Guile's Theme > Indestructible --- thelefty for analysis crew 2008 imo -tranny I have a third degree burn in flame-o-nomics -Sir Chris |
Safer Sephiroth 777 posted... Man this contest is the worst.We shall finish the entire contest with a lot of perfect brackets! Tidus vs. Jecht: 3462 Big Boss vs. The Boss: 3534 Really? Yeah the first round has been relatively easy, and that's coming from one of the 130 with a perfect battle bracket, but part of that is because of the insane amount of information this board has. --- Jerry Sandusky taught me how to play ball hockey |
False.
Link vs. Cloud will have at least 3 lead changes: 1 in the early
morning when Cloud takes the lead from Link, 1 in the late morning (if
it's a weekend match) or during the ASV (if weekday) where Link takes it
back, and 1 in the SNV when Cloud triumphantly takes the lead from Link
to win the contest. --- 90s games > 00s games |
Ramza stall here we go --- KingBartz: Oracle Ranked #75 Bracket is 27/29 with today's pick being Kratos/Zeus |
C'mon Ramza, don't get my hopes up. --- http://raptr.com/badge/cf898f37d9c30ef120ada6c35e636ad3/fs.png http://myanimelist.net/signature/RyanSaotome.png |
red sox 777 | Posted 11/17/2011 12:39:34 PM | message detail | quote There's 2 components to the night vote: day/night trends and geographical trends. Day/night trends mean that people who vote at night in the same place are more likely to vote for Crono or other night characters. This has always been a bigger effect than geographical trends. I haven't seen any evidence that certain characters do well at night because the night voters are more likely to prefer them over the other characters. We've seen characters like Sora gaining percentage like crazy in North America during the ASV, but no known characters have done this in North America during the night vote. There isn't a night vote equivalent to the ASV. Even if that did exist, the late night voters from North America would be dominated by the European voters. --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as BlAcK TuRtLe, Guru Champ! |
Aw man Ramza teasin' --- KingBartz: Oracle Ranked #75 Bracket is 27/29 with today's pick being Kratos/Zeus |
TRE Public Account Posted 11/17/2011 12:14:56 PM message detail Just looking through Round 2. Dante v Sora looks like literally the only match with even a tiny chance of an upset, did I miss anything? Frog/Magus didn't look too good and may have troubles with Chell/Glados. Eh, Chell/Glados didn't exactly light the world on fire. Besides, after looking at vote-in x-stats, that match put Frog/Magus slightly ahead of Fox/Wolf, which is around where I'd peg them anyways. --- Game of the Decade? More like Guru of the Decade mirite? |
From: LordGaluf | Posted: 11/17/2011 5:45:38 PM | #011 Nightmare-"Not yet! --- http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v303/Shaneh87/Funny/siggy.jpg |
By
the way what will be the closest match of the first round?Since the
next 2 matches will have a lot of difference I believe(okay Dante shall
win easily and for Sora since almost nobody cares for the contests no
rallying for Hitler) --- GameFaqs is NOT the place to go for relationship advice.Nobody here gets any action unless it is their right or left hand.Including me.~Dawn and Dusk~ |
The
night vote operates for the same reason as the ASV. Think about it:
how can there even be an ASV without other time periods to compensate? This was all extremely obvious since 2002, so I don't want to waste any time proving it to you. But try this: calculate how big an effect geographical differences can have on trends if each geographical region had the same voting patterns across all time periods. I did this once, and the effect is very small, far smaller than the trend differences we frequently observe. The majority of our trends come from day/night variations within North America. Probably less now than in previous years, because 80% of the site has finished high school. Or, if you don't want to do any calculations, just wait for the next match with trends and watch the North America percentage as it changes through the day. And the reason you don't see big increases like with the ASV is completely obvious: Night and 24-hour matches start at night, so there's nothing to increase from. When you see the percentages fall come morning, that's what you should be looking for. The SNV is so small and contains so few voters, against a full day's of voting that's already happened, that the percentages just around going to shift very much. Not to mention that the SNV is just weak.....the full force of the night vote gets going very late. --- 90s games > 00s games |
Yeah I'd say it's pretty safe to say this match is over. --- KingBartz: Oracle Ranked #75 Bracket is 27/29 with today's pick being Kratos/Zeus |
red sox 777 | Posted 11/17/2011 12:57:21 PM | message detail | quote The night vote operates for the same reason as the ASV. Think about it: how can there even be an ASV without other time periods to compensate? Or, if you don't want to do any calculations, just wait for the next match with trends and watch the North America percentage as it changes through the day. And the reason you don't see big increases like with the ASV is completely obvious: Night and 24-hour matches start at night, so there's nothing to increase from. When you see the percentages fall come morning, that's what you should be looking for. The SNV is so small and contains so few voters, against a full day's of voting that's already happened, that the percentages just around going to shift very much. Not to mention that the SNV is just weak.....the full force of the night vote gets going very late/ There was one match where I watched the North America percentage as the night vote progressed. During MGS4/Assassin's Creed, the North America percentage remained fairly stable all night, until MGS4 started dropping like a rock when the morning vote hit. I thought MGS4 would get the night vote in North America, but it didn't happen. Even if a certain character was going up a percentage during the night vote in North America, it's hard for them to affect the trends if they are only pulling in about 35% of the votes during North America's worst hours. Keeping in mind that North America's 35% hours are also the same time that Europe is pulling in about 50% of the votes. And yeah, we haven't had a true SNV since the days of a 3 AM start time. --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as BlAcK TuRtLe, Guru Champ! |
random prediction: we lose 40% of our battle bracket perfects on Mario/Ike --- add the c and back away iphonesience |
random prediction: we lose 40% of our battle bracket perfects on Mario/Ike That would be funny as ****. 5-10% is more realistic imo. --- [[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[ -Red |||||||||||||| -Green ]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]] -Blue Play Earthbound. |
From: transcience | #021 I think 20% would be more reasonable. I don't think nearly half of the battle brackets will forget to make R2 picks --- KingBartz: Oracle Ranked #75 Bracket is 27/29 with today's pick being Kratos/Zeus |
*perfect battle brackets --- KingBartz: Oracle Ranked #75 Bracket is 27/29 with today's pick being Kratos/Zeus |
Two hours into Skyward Sword. I have a prediction to make: Zelda is gonna boost from this. --- Praise the Black Turtle, Game of the Decade Guru Champ. (Well, I never promised creativity, did I?!) |
transcience posted... random prediction: we lose 40% of our battle bracket perfects on Mario/Ike I-I didn't even think about this. Heh. Just thinking, how will the leaderboard treat it? Because if it is done by time of entry, they would be different for round 2, no? How'd it work last time? |
OMG STALL --- KingBartz: Oracle Ranked #75 Bracket is 27/29 with today's pick being Kratos/Zeus |
What a boring Round 1 --- Xbox Live Gamertag: ffmasterjose Your favorite Trapper's favorite Trapper |
From
Round 64 to Round 65 in GotD, there were 25% fewer Battle Brackets. I
don't think we'll lose too many perfects this year but it could end
killing more of them than the debated matches so far. --- Pokemon VGC2011 US Nationals - 54th place Pokemon VGC2012 NW Regional - 16th place |
There
was one match where I watched the North America percentage as the night
vote progressed. During MGS4/Assassin's Creed, the North America
percentage remained fairly stable all night, until MGS4 started dropping
like a rock when the morning vote hit. I thought MGS4 would get the
night vote in North America, but it didn't happen. Exactly. The match started at night, and MGS4 took the night vote. Then Assassin's Creed took the day vote. You didn't see an increase because the match started at night. Sorry if this sounds condescending, but this should be easy to understand. There are only like 2 hours where Europe has more votes than North America, and yes, geographical trends are more important during those 2 hours. But the night vote is much longer than the dead zone. --- 90s games > 00s games |
Okay then. That makes more sense. I don't know anything about continent poll trends on a weekday, but on a weekend, Europe wins 3 hours over North America (barely winning 7:00-8:00 AM). On a weekday, it should be slightly different, with North America coming back to life during the 6:00-7:00 AM hour instead of 7:00-8:00 AM (during a weekend poll). --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as BlAcK TuRtLe, Guru Champ! |
Well, Ramza's keeping it close ... at least close by this contest's standards, but he just doesn't have the strength. Lame. --- "Ovelia ... SPOILERS IN THE KEYWORDS WOOPS" - Vormav |
grrr... at least I will have lost my perfect bracket on the closest Round 1 we'll get.... ;_; --- ~ Rivalry Rumble Oracle Challenge ~ Rank - 32nd Today's Prediction: Squall / Seifer - 74.85% |
Imagine if somehow Hitler does win tomorrow. http://images.wikia.com/wolfenstein/images/5/50/Robot-ah.jpg There is no way he's not winning round 2 as well with a freaking Mecha Hitler pic. Wolfenstein 3D gave some amazing Hitler sprites --- http://raptr.com/badge/cf898f37d9c30ef120ada6c35e636ad3/fs.png http://myanimelist.net/signature/RyanSaotome.png |
I was expecting a mecha in the picture for this round. --- BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/Rivalry%20BOP.xls Rivalry Rumble: 27/28 Today: Squall/Seifer & Siegfried/Nightmare |
First cut of 1 vote. Only took them 145 minutes --- My Japanese alter-ego. Hey all this is Bartz btw. |
I
wonder if Ramza/Delita could have won if S/N had a crappy pic and the
match was done at night.... regardless, the match is closer than I
thought. I failed to re-check past stats that Nightmare and Ramza were
closer than I thought. (don't look at my Oracle prediction, though; I
didn't REALLY think they'd get that high! I've just been boldy picking
blowout after blowout.....). So, you think Cecil/Golbez would have beaten Siegfried/Nightmare? --- "Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. So...what is a party?" "Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think." |
I don't think Cecil/Golbez would have much trouble beating Siegfried/Nightmare. --- Pokemon VGC2011 US Nationals - 54th place Pokemon VGC2012 NW Regional - 16th place |
Why all of you predicated that FFT will lose? How? just how? isn't it Final Fantasy? isn't it the most loved FF game to hardcores fans? ISNT IT |
I'm
biased as hell, but I would have taken Cecil/Golbez to crush A Guy Who
Despite Late Mass Stuffing Lost To Hogger and Said Guy's Buddy. They'd
take Siegfried/Nightmare without much trouble. --- http://i259.photobucket.com/albums/hh293/zukiraphaera/war-sig-1.png http://i.imgur.com/FII1z.gif |
Cecil
and Golbez got Dissidia. I'm wondering if that would have been enough
for Ramza and Delita. If nothing else, it would have gotten them some
fresher art for match pics. --- Yoblazer: http://i43.tinypic.com/25z1non.jpg Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world! |
Given
what Dissidia did for Terra and Kefka along with Cecil, if Ramza/Delita
had Dissidia I'd have taken them over Siegfried/Nightmare. Terra went
from 70-30'd by Dante and 80-20'd by Zelda to being able to get 35% on
Squall, thus doing significantly better on a stronger opponent who
should have (and possibly even might have) SFFed her despite her main
game having only gotten older and weaker since then. --- http://i259.photobucket.com/albums/hh293/zukiraphaera/war-sig-1.png http://i.imgur.com/FII1z.gif |
How does Ramza/Delita compare against Bartz/Gilgamesh? --- Pokemon VGC2011 US Nationals - 54th place Pokemon VGC2012 NW Regional - 16th place |
I'd take Bartz/Gilgamesh simply because of Gilgamesh and the fact Bartz has Dissidia. --- http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v303/Shaneh87/Funny/siggy.jpg |
I'd
be floored if Ramza/Delita lost to Bartz/Gilgamesh. I guess when I said
Dan/Sagat might be the weakest duo in the contest I lied, because I
forgot about Guybrush. I would take more out of a performance on CATS
than one on Guybrush. (Captain/CATS would have totally beaten the snot out of Guybrush/LeChuck) --- http://i259.photobucket.com/albums/hh293/zukiraphaera/war-sig-1.png http://i.imgur.com/FII1z.gif |
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=4515 Bartz/Gilgamesh aren't that close to Guybrush, though. --- Pokemon VGC2011 US Nationals - 54th place Pokemon VGC2012 NW Regional - 16th place |
Well
yeah, they aren't that close, but I'll honestly take 43% (where I
expect this to end) on Nightmare/Siegfried during the day over 64% on
Guybrush in the day. Bartz is in Dissidia sure, but I'd be hard-pressed
to take FFV over any other FF we've seen in the contests. Hell,
Marche/Mewt might be able to match Bartz's performance on Guybrush. Edit: My point was more along the lines of 'I'm not trusting anything based on they did well on Guybrush' than 'Bartz/Gilgy vs. Guybrush/LeChuck is totally still a close match, pal!' --- http://i259.photobucket.com/albums/hh293/zukiraphaera/war-sig-1.png http://i.imgur.com/FII1z.gif |
Why all of you predicated that FFT will lose? How? just how? isn't it Final Fantasy? isn't it the most loved FF game to hardcores fans? ISNT IT FFT does seem to have a lot of hardcore fans. This was one of those times where knowing about past contest results would help you. If Siegfried and Nightmare never been in a contest I think a lot of us would have gone the other way. --- BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/Rivalry%20BOP.xls Rivalry Rumble: 27/28 Today: Squall/Seifer & Siegfried/Nightmare |
I
would take Ramza/Delita over the FFV duo rather easily. Dissidia may
have given him exposure, but Bartz isn't a fan favourite in the game. --- BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/Rivalry%20BOP.xls Rivalry Rumble: 27/28 Today: Squall/Seifer & Siegfried/Nightmare |
