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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1019

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#251 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 11/16/2011 5:35:35 PM | message detail
We have other matches where the rivalry factor did matter in the overall result. This was one of the matches that seemed to be a rare exception to this rule. These 2 posts explained this match pretty well:

transcience | Posted 11/16/2011 12:17:08 PM | message detail | quote
this match is doing exactly as I expected: people are treating it as Snake vs. Crono and ignoring the others. this is why I could never pull the trigger on Cloud over Link... that will play out exactly the same as a regular Link/Cloud match. the rivalry doesn't matter.


PartOfYourWorld | Posted 11/16/2011 12:18:28 PM | message detail | quote
A very interesting point. Maybe the rivalries just matter less when the popularity of our biggest guys simply overpower them.

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#252 | JJH777 | Posted 11/16/2011 5:39:10 PM | message detail
Nobleniners have a resistance to rivalry factor. Samus is saved.
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#253 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 11/16/2011 5:49:56 PM | message detail
We don't know for sure if Noble Niners are affected by the rivalry factor. Let's wait for more matches in round 2 and 3 before we know for sure on this.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
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#254 | red sox 777 | Posted 11/16/2011 5:50:34 PM | message detail
Indeed, you guys don't want to give Crono any credit.
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90s games > 00s games
#255 | charmander6000 | Posted 11/16/2011 6:02:58 PM | message detail
Okay, does Canada hate Solid Snake or do they love Crono? Because he's almost winning there.

Canada loves Chrono Trigger, Starcraft and Diablo II, but doesn't care much for Halo and Kingdom Hearts
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/Rivalry%20BOP.xls
Rivalry Rumble: 25/26 Today: Pac-Man/Blinky & Solid Snake/Liquid Snake
#256 | FateStayAlbion | Posted 11/16/2011 6:24:45 PM | message detail
#257 | red sox 777 | Posted 11/16/2011 6:29:48 PM | message detail | (edited)
2nd Night Vote appears to have started. Let's see how much percentage Crono can cut off here, he looks pretty good for 41% at least.

By the way, Snake got 59.17% on Squall last year, so as long as Crono can hold his current percentage, he's got Squall beat.
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90s games > 00s games
#258 | LeonhartFour | Posted 11/16/2011 6:31:58 PM | message detail

From: red sox 777 | #257
By the way, Snake got 59.17% on Squall last year, so as long as Crono can hold his current percentage, he's got Squall beat.


Assuming 2011 Snake = 2010 Snake or 2011 Squall = 2010 Squall

Or Snake/Liquid 2011 = Snake 2010

All silly
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#259 | cyko | Posted 11/16/2011 6:34:41 PM | message detail

http://image.com.com/gamefaqs/images/rivals/rivals-32.jpg


I seriously laughed so hard when I saw this pic of angry Hitler. On the one hand, the horrible atrocities he committed in real life weren't funny at all. However, seeing him reduced to a ridiculous cartoon caricature is pretty darn amusing.
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#260 | red sox 777 | Posted 11/16/2011 6:34:52 PM | message detail
We're definitely not certain any of those equalities hold, but any changes are just as likely to favor Crono as Squall. And there is one big change which definitely favors Crono, which is that he's saddled with Lavos in this match. Crono's shown that he deserves to be the favorite in that match, unless you believe in Snake/Squall SFF. Of course favorites don't always win.
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90s games > 00s games
#261 | LeonhartFour | Posted 11/16/2011 6:37:25 PM | message detail
Crono hasn't won a match in 3 years and he deserves to be the favorite?

Pffffffffffft
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#262 | Achromatic | Posted 11/16/2011 6:37:57 PM | message detail
Crono would shred Squall.
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#263 | LeonhartFour | Posted 11/16/2011 6:40:05 PM | message detail
#264 | Achromatic | Posted 11/16/2011 6:40:44 PM | message detail
#265 | LeonhartFour | Posted 11/16/2011 6:41:33 PM | message detail
Crono hasn't been worth 56% on Squall since 2004.
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#266 | red sox 777 | Posted 11/16/2011 6:41:35 PM | message detail
The last time Crono won a match, he beat 2 Noble Niners. Has Squall ever done that?

Seriously though, I'm pretty satisfied with this match given that Lavos is weighing down Crono. I think quite highly of Squall and would take him over any non-Noble Niner except maybe MMX, including Vincent. Though, MMX has some claim to the title of Noble Niner. He was, after all, under CJayC.
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90s games > 00s games
#267 | FateStayAlbion | Posted 11/16/2011 6:42:02 PM | message detail
#268 | LeonhartFour | Posted 11/16/2011 6:42:13 PM | message detail

From: red sox 777 | #266
The last time Crono won a match, he beat 2 Noble Niners. Has Squall ever done that?


Put him in the same scenario as Crono, and Squall probably does it, too!

Not my fault Crono got lucky!
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#269 | GloriousSweater | Posted 11/16/2011 6:44:54 PM | message detail

From: red sox 777 | #266
Seriously though, I'm pretty satisfied with this match


Yes. It could have easily been a disaster (my Oracle was 64%). MGS looked great in its first two matches, and CT looked very bad in its earlier one. Crono's 41% here is a good job of saving face. No matter how we want to compare this to a potential 1v1 match, it's inarguable that Crono had the worse partner here, making it easy to argue that he'd muster a better performance than this in a 1v1.
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#270 | vcharon | Posted 11/16/2011 7:28:22 PM | message detail
Personally I think this looks pretty good for Crono, despite all his troubles in recent years. Solid/Liquid is perhaps one of the most iconic rivalries that debuted after the 16 bit era. I'd rank it tied with Cloud and Sephiroth as the most iconic. This contest has spoken; rivalries do matter in the context of this contest. Crono's rivalry is terrible and he's still doing fairly good.

Crono > Sonic/MM still.
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:>
#271 | charmander6000 | Posted 11/16/2011 7:30:52 PM | message detail
Match XXIX: (1) Squall Leonhart/Seifer Almasy vs. (8) Laharl/Mid-Boss

Previous Contest

Squall Leonhart – 2010
68.01% against Akuma
64.52% against Terra Branford
51.81% against Auron
40.83% against Solid Snake

Seifer Almasy – N/A
N/A

Laharl – 2010
56.32% against Neku Sakuraba
32.25% against Sora

Mid-Boss – N/A
N/A

Analysis

After trying for so long Seifer has finally made a contest and with Squall as a partner is looking to go far in this contest. I never thought Seifer would have much strength once he made a contest, but I would have to feel that he would have been able to win this match almost by himself. While Laharl finally won his first match and ended up looking rather good against Sora I still feel that the character is rather weak.

Laharl and Mid-Boss were barely able to reach the contest by the vote-ins and given that almost everything that was in the vote-ins was crushed I don’t think people should be surprised if the same thing happens in this match. While Disgaea fans seem to love Mid-Boss and the rivalry between the two is decent the game is still rather niche and while fans can get them to reach the contest their lack of support becomes apparent in a match like this.

Squall and Seifer should have no problem blasting over 70% and are even likely to break 75% in this match. While Laharl isn’t as weak as his first contest appearance he is still among the weakest regular in our contests. While I would like to see Seifer perform by himself in a contest we can always wait until next contest or whenever he decides to return.

charmander6000’s Bracket: Squall Leonhart/Seifer Almasy > Laharl/Mid-Boss

charmander6000’s Prediction: Squall Leonhart/Seifer Almasy wins, 74.34% - 25.66%
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/Rivalry%20BOP.xls
Rivalry Rumble: 25/26 Today: Pac-Man/Blinky & Solid Snake/Liquid Snake
#272 | Achromatic | Posted 11/16/2011 7:31:05 PM | message detail
This is an awful result for Snake/Liquid. They aren't making it out of this division.
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#273 | vcharon | Posted 11/16/2011 7:31:58 PM | message detail
This is far less impressive than Cloud and Seph, yeah. People not giving Snake a hard time about it in this topic though.
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:>
#274 | LeonhartFour | Posted 11/16/2011 7:38:03 PM | message detail
Yeah, maybe my expectations for the Snakes were too high, but I expected at least 60% here.

Too bad we won't get a really good read off of them next round either.
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#275 | WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 11/16/2011 8:01:54 PM | message detail
vcharon posted...
This is far less impressive than Cloud and Seph, yeah. People not giving Snake a hard time about it in this topic though.

That's more because no amount of underperformance changes anything. Snakes over Cloud/Seph was already a stretch, and it's not like only 58% on Crono/Lavos will get people to hype up Pac/Blinky to the 3rd round. If Snakes had been in, say, X's, Samus's, or Ryu's division this would be getting a lot more talk. As it is, it just means this division will be boring as expected.
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#276 | LeonhartFour | Posted 11/16/2011 8:24:10 PM | message detail
Kinda interested to see what the prediction percentage for this match is. Snake/Liquid feels like an obvious pick, but it's still Crono they're facing.
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#277 | pjbasis | Posted 11/16/2011 8:54:27 PM | message detail
Aw yeah championship match comin' up.

Squall does what Cloud can't.
#278 | LeonhartFour | Posted 11/16/2011 8:55:02 PM | message detail
Squall for all
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#279 | shinigami820 | Posted 11/16/2011 8:58:58 PM | message detail | (edited)
Too easy; Squall's got this. Also, I love FFVIII.
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#280 | LeonhartFour | Posted 11/16/2011 8:56:39 PM | message detail
Aw yeah FFVIII fanboy hub in the stats topic

let's do this
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#281 | pjbasis | Posted 11/16/2011 8:58:46 PM | message detail
Expecting a good board vote guys, don't let me down!
#282 | swordz9 | Posted 11/16/2011 8:59:08 PM | message detail
Can't wait for this match. Looking forward to Squall domination even though I like Laharl and Mid-Boss too.
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#283 | GrapefruitKing | Posted 11/16/2011 9:00:28 PM | message detail
yeah, this is getting kinda ridiculous
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~ Rivalry Rumble Oracle Challenge ~ Rank - 32nd
Today's Prediction: Snakes - 62.28%
#284 | FateStayAlbion | Posted 11/16/2011 9:00:29 PM | message detail
#285 | JJH777 | Posted 11/16/2011 9:00:44 PM | message detail
lol 3 days in a row
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#286 | jacko_vdz | Posted 11/16/2011 9:00:45 PM | message detail
Haha
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#287 | WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 11/16/2011 9:00:54 PM | message detail
#288 | shinigami820 | Posted 11/16/2011 9:01:00 PM | message detail
Poll's late again? RAGE!
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#289 | LeonhartFour | Posted 11/16/2011 9:01:10 PM | message detail
Being late on matches is the new thing, I guess.
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#290 | jacko_vdz | Posted 11/16/2011 9:01:14 PM | message detail
Vote Accepted

Squall Leonhart vs. Seifer Almasy 62.5% 5
Laharl vs. Mid-Boss 37.5% 3
TOTAL VOTES 8
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#291 | greatone10 | Posted 11/16/2011 9:01:18 PM | message detail
No guys. It's just Lavos screwing with time again.
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#292 | voltch | Posted 11/16/2011 9:01:28 PM | message detail
Squall Leonhart vs. Seifer Almasy 58.33%

21
Laharl vs. Mid-Boss 41.67%

15
TOTAL VOTES 36
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#293 | LeonhartFour | Posted 11/16/2011 9:01:34 PM | message detail
Vote Accepted

Squall Leonhart vs. Seifer Almasy 61.76% 42
Laharl vs. Mid-Boss 38.24% 26
TOTAL VOTES 68
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#294 | WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 11/16/2011 9:01:36 PM | message detail
#295 | GrapefruitKing | Posted 11/16/2011 9:01:38 PM | message detail
Laharl is boss
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~ Rivalry Rumble Oracle Challenge ~ Rank - 32nd
Today's Prediction: Snakes - 62.28%
#296 | xp1337 | Posted 11/16/2011 9:01:39 PM | message detail
Squall Leonhart vs. Seifer Almasy 50% 14
Laharl vs. Mid-Boss 50% 14
TOTAL VOTES 28
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#297 | pjbasis | Posted 11/16/2011 9:01:41 PM | message detail
Isn't it set to happen automatically?
#298 | FateStayAlbion | Posted 11/16/2011 9:01:45 PM | message detail
#299 | LeonhartFour | Posted 11/16/2011 9:02:13 PM | message detail
Proving that anti-voting is not limited to FFVII.

Squall/Seifer should clear 70% pretty easily, and that's about all they need to do.
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#300 | WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 11/16/2011 9:02:55 PM | message detail