GameFAQs Contests

Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1019

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#451 | Haguile | Posted 11/17/2011 9:13:30 AM | message detail
This match has a...pretty pathetic lead. It's anyone's game if only because of how low the votals are and how effective rallying would be.
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#452 | shane15 | Posted 11/17/2011 9:13:40 AM | message detail

From: FateStayAlbion | Posted: 11/17/2011 5:12:15 PM | #448
shane15 posted...
Oceania still rocking 100% for Nightmare.Shame their vote means hardly anything.

Those geolocation votes only update every 10 minutes


O yeah forgot about that.
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#453 | __Smurf__ | Posted 11/17/2011 9:14:26 AM | message detail

From: Haguile | #451
This match has a...pretty pathetic lead. It's anyone's game if only because of how low the votals are and how effective rallying would be.


Nobody really cares about either enough for that unfortunately. Might make it interesting.
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#454 | The Real Truth | Posted 11/17/2011 9:14:56 AM | message detail
__Smurf__ posted...
Just looking through Round 2. Dante v Sora looks like literally the only match with even a tiny chance of an upset, did I miss anything?

Sonic/Kirby
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#455 | TRE Public Account | Posted 11/17/2011 9:14:56 AM | message detail
Just looking through Round 2. Dante v Sora looks like literally the only match with even a tiny chance of an upset, did I miss anything?

Frog/Magus didn't look too good and may have troubles with Chell/Glados.
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#456 | GloriousSweater | Posted 11/17/2011 9:15:08 AM | message detail

From: Guess how many teens | #445
prolly at least 50 battle brackets too.


I very much doubt that (assuming Nightmare holds). The perfect battlers are kind of a hivemind. It'll probably be one shocking match that kills everyone or a painful war of attrition whittling down a few brackets at a time.
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#457 | FateStayAlbion | Posted 11/17/2011 9:15:13 AM | message detail
__Smurf__ posted...
From: Haguile | #451
This match has a...pretty pathetic lead. It's anyone's game if only because of how low the votals are and how effective rallying would be.
Nobody really cares about either enough for that unfortunately. Might make it interesting.


Ramza had a major spike the last couple updates against Hogger. if its close at the end, he'll win it.
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#458 | Haguile | Posted 11/17/2011 9:15:23 AM | message detail

From: __Smurf__ | Posted: 11/17/2011 12:14:26 PM | #453
Nobody really cares about either enough for that unfortunately. Might make it interesting.


I suspect someone who bet on Ramza just might go out of his way to rally for him, or something. But you are probably right.
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#459 | Ultimaphazon | Posted 11/17/2011 9:15:34 AM | message detail
100 vote barrier broken
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#460 | Greyfeld | Posted 11/17/2011 9:15:35 AM | message detail
Haguile posted...
This match has a...pretty pathetic lead. It's anyone's game if only because of how low the votals are and how effective rallying would be.

I don't think enough people care about FFT to rally a win out of a day match.
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#461 | Guess how many teens | Posted 11/17/2011 9:15:47 AM | message detail
Just looking through Round 2. Dante v Sora looks like literally the only match with even a tiny chance of an upset, did I miss anything?

I'm confident about each match in R2 except for Frog/Magus vs Glados/Chell, which should be a pretty easy win for Frog/Magus anyway >_>.

Unless Hitler upsets tomorrow no banking until R3 imvho.
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#462 | transcience | Posted 11/17/2011 9:16:07 AM | message detail
I'm pretty worried about Kirby/Sonic. I know a lot of you guys feel safe with Sonic but I sure don't.
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#463 | FateStayAlbion | Posted 11/17/2011 9:17:07 AM | message detail | (edited)
Talking about 2nd night vote, though...

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=4539&region=EUR

Ramza should cut through the lead like butter at that point with the Euros are in bed
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#464 | __Smurf__ | Posted 11/17/2011 9:17:12 AM | message detail
I usually hate joke characters but this contest could really do with Hitler causing some waves tomorrow. The contest needs something to make it interesting, anything.
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#465 | Guess how many teens | Posted 11/17/2011 9:17:41 AM | message detail
I very much doubt that (assuming Nightmare holds). The perfect battlers are kind of a hivemind. It'll probably be one shocking match that kills everyone or a painful war of attrition whittling down a few brackets at a time.

you could be right about that, but I figured there would be some crazies out there that thought this was a decent time to bank, and at least 30 brackets that support Ramza;

I thought like 20 would go down on Crash/Pacman though so I'm prolly totally wrong :).
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#466 | The Real Truth | Posted 11/17/2011 9:18:39 AM | message detail
All this contest needed was better bracket arrangement. Why is Squall being fed to Snake again?
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#467 | shane15 | Posted 11/17/2011 9:19:14 AM | message detail

From: The Real Truth | Posted: 11/17/2011 5:18:39 PM | #466
All this contest needed was better bracket arrangement. Why is Squall being fed to Snake again?


He's not
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#468 | TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 11/17/2011 9:19:18 AM | message detail

From: transcience | #462
I'm pretty worried about Kirby/Sonic. I know a lot of you guys feel safe with Sonic but I sure don't.


Didn't you say that last year, too?
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#469 | shane15 | Posted 11/17/2011 9:20:36 AM | message detail
That's what i like to see keep that lead moving up.
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#470 | Guess how many teens | Posted 11/17/2011 9:20:44 AM | message detail
I'm pretty worried about Kirby/Sonic. I know a lot of you guys feel safe with Sonic but I sure don't.

Meh, I kinda feel confident about it with Sonic Generations just being released.
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#471 | The Real Truth | Posted 11/17/2011 9:21:00 AM | message detail
shane15 posted...
From: The Real Truth | Posted: 11/17/2011 5:18:39 PM | #466
All this contest needed was better bracket arrangement. Why is Squall being fed to Snake again?
He's not


Snake/Cloud, whatever
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#472 | __Smurf__ | Posted 11/17/2011 9:21:28 AM | message detail

From: TheKoolAidShoto | #468
Didn't you say that last year, too?


People say it every year about Sonic. I can't remember a single contest where someone wasn't fully expecting a massive upset against him and barring 4-ways it never happened.
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#473 | transcience | Posted 11/17/2011 9:21:39 AM | message detail
I dunno.

I am also pretty scared of Hitler! I hadn't realized how big the picture could be. combine that with low vote totals and yikes. if Hitler wins round 1, he's going far.
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#474 | ctesjbuvf | Posted 11/17/2011 9:21:58 AM | message detail
Ramza's gonna win this ****! Otherwise I'm out of the guru. At least I'd be going out with some great people. But loosing to Cookie? No way.
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#475 | Haguile | Posted 11/17/2011 9:22:31 AM | message detail
I'm not scared of Hitler, because if there's any character that's going to get antivoted to hell and back...that's Hitler. Because it's Hitler.
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#476 | ctesjbuvf | Posted 11/17/2011 9:23:20 AM | message detail
Kirby's domination in the 2008 contest is probably the reason that people still worry.
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#477 | GloriousSweater | Posted 11/17/2011 9:24:04 AM | message detail
2008 was Sonic's terrible, indefensible low point. Apart from that year, he's actually been pretty clutch. He's had close loses to Samus and Mega Man in 2002/2005, but those are Noble 9ers, and the matches themselves were awesome.
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#478 | LeonhartFour | Posted 11/17/2011 9:25:22 AM | message detail
There's just a part of me that would be kinda shocked if Hitler could manage 50% of the votes on this (or most) websites in a popularity poll, even with jokes, rallies, etc.

Also, I'm in the same boat as tranny. I'd feel really bad about Siegfried/Nightmare holding on during a night match, but SC is usually pretty day friendly and FF isn't. I think they should be fine.
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#479 | ShatteredElysium | Posted 11/17/2011 9:26:11 AM | message detail
Wasn't there an awesome match pic for Ramza floating around this topic? Real shame it wasn't used.
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#480 | FateStayAlbion | Posted 11/17/2011 9:26:29 AM | message detail
I think Ramza is done here. I felt that he needed to keep it under 200 in the first hour, which should be one of his worst times to win... but it'll look like it'll blow past it now.
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#481 | paulg235 | Posted 11/17/2011 9:26:33 AM | message detail
Which has the better ASV? FFT or Soul Calibur?
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#482 | FateStayAlbion | Posted 11/17/2011 9:27:57 AM | message detail
paulg235 posted...
Which has the better ASV? FFT or Soul Calibur?

You'd think SC, but...

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=4539&region=US

Its really close in America, and Crono ended up hanging tight in the ASV yesterday after doing much better in the US vote before the ASV.
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#483 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 11/17/2011 9:28:12 AM | message detail
Soul Calibur should have the better ASV. I don't really trust anything related to Final Fantasy to win the ASV. There is also this:

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=4539&region=US

However, I expect that percentage to increase when the ASV comes along.
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#484 | Haguile | Posted 11/17/2011 9:28:20 AM | message detail
I think Soul Calibur, but I'm not a stats wizard. I'm just guessing based on the fact that Soul Calibur still gets games released every once in a while while FFT...doesn't.
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#485 | LeonhartFour | Posted 11/17/2011 9:28:54 AM | message detail

From: paulg235 | #481
Which has the better ASV? FFT or Soul Calibur?


Definitely SoulCalibur. Nightmare's ASV was actually pretty good in his two contest appearances. FFT, like everything else in the series, has a bad ASV.
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#486 | FateStayAlbion | Posted 11/17/2011 9:29:43 AM | message detail
I don't think ASV matters much anymore, anyway. IIRC under 20% of the site even is school age at this point.
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#487 | LeonhartFour | Posted 11/17/2011 9:29:48 AM | message detail

From: FateStayAlbion | #482
You'd think SC, but...

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=4539&region=US

Its really close in America, and Crono ended up hanging tight in the ASV yesterday


How many times do we need to say that how a character is doing now has no bearing on how a character will do during the ASV?

And Crono was facing MGS during the ASV. That's not exactly a day vote king either.
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#488 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 11/17/2011 9:31:00 AM | message detail
FateStayAlbion | Posted 11/17/2011 12:29:43 PM | message detail | quote
I don't think ASV matters much anymore, anyway. IIRC under 20% of the site even is school age at this point.


The ASV is a lot weaker now than it was a few years ago. Also, the ASV has sucked badly in this contest, with the ASV dying after 6:00 PM.
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#489 | LeonhartFour | Posted 11/17/2011 9:32:15 AM | message detail
Yesterday's chart:

Time | Squalfer | Laboss | Votes
0:05 | 68.24% | 31.76% | 655
1:00 | 73.44% | 26.56% | 4457
2:00 | 73.00% | 27.00% | 2811
3:00 | 71.82% | 28.18% | 2122
4:00 | 75.46% | 24.54% | 1732
5:00 | 70.34% | 29.66% | 1406
6:00 | 71.70% | 28.30% | 1417
7:00 | 75.61% | 24.39% | 1648
8:00 | 75.84% | 24.16% | 1871
9:00 | 72.86% | 27.14% | 1931
10:00 | 74.76% | 25.24% | 2163
11:00 | 74.27% | 25.73% | 2215
12:00 | 74.34% | 25.66% | 2151

Squall and Laharl kind of go back and forth during the night with good hours, but the morning vote definitely favors FFVIII.
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#490 | FateStayAlbion | Posted 11/17/2011 9:32:29 AM | message detail
-LusterSoldier- posted...
FateStayAlbion | Posted 11/17/2011 12:29:43 PM | message detail | quote
I don't think ASV matters much anymore, anyway. IIRC under 20% of the site even is school age at this point.

The ASV is a lot weaker now than it was a few years ago. Also, the ASV has sucked badly in this contest, with the ASV dying after 6:00 PM.


Any gains SC makes during ASV will likely just be cancelled out by the 2nd night vote Ramza has, so whoever is winning going into the ASV likely wins the match.
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#491 | LeonhartFour | Posted 11/17/2011 9:33:07 AM | message detail
Feels kind of strange saying I'm feeling good about a lead of less than 200 thirty minutes in, but that's where we are right now.
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#492 | Lavos_Fanboy | Posted 11/17/2011 9:33:55 AM | message detail
FateStayAlbion posted...
-LusterSoldier- posted...
FateStayAlbion | Posted 11/17/2011 12:29:43 PM | message detail | quote
I don't think ASV matters much anymore, anyway. IIRC under 20% of the site even is school age at this point.

The ASV is a lot weaker now than it was a few years ago. Also, the ASV has sucked badly in this contest, with the ASV dying after 6:00 PM.

Any gains SC makes during ASV will likely just be cancelled out by the 2nd night vote Ramza has, so whoever is winning going into the ASV likely wins the match.


uhhhh ramza is not a night character. look at riku vs ramza. ramza does bad in europe and good in usa. fft wasnt released in europe.
#493 | Kotetsu534 | Posted 11/17/2011 9:34:52 AM | message detail
SNV is a different vote-block from the FNV (which is where Europe/Asia are important). It's during the middle of the night in Europe.
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#494 | FateStayAlbion | Posted 11/17/2011 9:35:10 AM | message detail
uhhhh ramza is not a night character. look at riku vs ramza. ramza does bad in europe and good in usa. fft wasnt released in europe.

You do realize what the 2nd night vote is, and why stuff like CT does so well during it even though it wasn't released in Europe?

9-12 PM EST is like 2 am to 5 am in Europe. It basically kills off any Europe advantage the other character has.
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#495 | red sox 777 | Posted 11/17/2011 9:37:24 AM | message detail
The current margin is probably too large. It takes a lot to turn around 54-46 (like Ramza would need to win the ASV and SNV).
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#496 | red sox 777 | Posted 11/17/2011 9:39:34 AM | message detail
There's 2 components to the night vote: day/night trends and geographical trends. Day/night trends mean that people who vote at night in the same place are more likely to vote for Crono or other night characters. This has always been a bigger effect than geographical trends.
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#497 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 11/17/2011 9:39:51 AM | message detail
Kotetsu534 | Posted 11/17/2011 12:34:52 PM | message detail | quote
SNV is a different vote-block from the FNV (which is where Europe/Asia are important). It's during the middle of the night in Europe.


Asia/Oceania are important during the SNV (going by the continent poll trends), but it's definitely North America that dominates the SNV. Chrono Trigger and its characters get a good SNV thanks to it being strong in North America (and Asia as well), and Europe sleeping through the SNV.
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#498 | FateStayAlbion | Posted 11/17/2011 9:40:52 AM | message detail
red sox 777 posted...
The current margin is probably too large. It takes a lot to turn around 54-46 (like Ramza would need to win the ASV and SNV).

Yeah, this match is over. I hope Ramza can at least get it to like 46 or 47% to help my oracle at this point!
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#499 | XIII_rocks | Posted 11/17/2011 9:41:39 AM | message detail
I am perfection
#500 | red sox 777 | Posted 11/17/2011 9:42:12 AM | message detail
Crono > Mario you'd best believe it
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