GameFAQs Contests

Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1017

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#1 | nintendogirl1 (Moderator) | Posted 11/12/2011 11:17:08 PM | message detail
Objection! This match is dull and going exactly as expected!

All aboard for a completely cookie contest!

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~*Character Contest Histories*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories

~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

~*All the Match Pics*~
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/index.php

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https://spreadsheets.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?hl=en&key=tOGmynfNIiNy5VukpEF-PdA&hl=en#gid=0

~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages

~*Say What? Common Stats Topic Lingo Defined*~

SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote. This is the best example of SFF we've ever seen. However take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make perfect sense.

Extrapolated Standings - The mathematical "strength" of a contestant that's determined based on their performance relative to the rest of the field. This number is typically based on the contest entrant's loss, but adjustments are sometimes made. See above for a watered down explanation for how the stats are calculated.
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Other than maybe trainers/SF/Samus and CT/CV.
#2 | greatone10 | Posted 11/12/2011 11:24:37 PM | message detail
Oh boy, if the Cookie bracket were to be perfect, especially since I had a direct Cookie entered at one point.
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"Go get me Jared...from Subway!" -- CM Punk
Future 2011 Rivalry Guru Champion!
#3 | nintendogirl1 (Moderator) | Posted 11/12/2011 11:26:14 PM | message detail
I think Alucard beats Frog/Magus and I'm not at all sure what happens with the Trainers/SF guys/Samus, but I think the cookie is good to go apart from those 3 matches.
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We're getting too good at this.
#4 | PartOfYourWorld | Posted 11/12/2011 11:30:13 PM | message detail
The last several contests were riddled with upsets and surprises. This has just been a very predictable bracket so far. Even if we don't wind up with a perfect, we could (should?) still see the longest streak of perfection ever. I'm not sure what the current streak is, but I know it's over 32 matches (thereby eclipsing all the perfects from the Series Contest).
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Yoblazer: http://i33.tinypic.com/ml36gl_th.gif
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
#5 | Greyfeld | Posted 11/13/2011 8:13:19 AM | message detail
I wonder if Junk_Funk is going to show himself any time soon ;)
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PSN - Aevio
"I'm on a Goomba." - BlackMageJawa
#6 | _Regaro_ | Posted 11/13/2011 8:24:34 AM | message detail

From: nintendogirl1 | #003
I think Alucard beats Frog/Magus and I'm not at all sure what happens with the Trainers/SF guys/Samus, but I think the cookie is good to go apart from those 3 matches.


I'd go so far as to call Trainers/SF > Samus a lock at this point.
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http://img.imgcake.com/RegaroUlquiorrapngse.png
#7 | nintendogirl1 (Moderator) | Posted 11/13/2011 8:56:43 AM | message detail
Think that's incredibly harsh after 80% on what is an awesome picture for Kid/Guy team. I think we need more time to decide still.
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#8 | GrapefruitKing | Posted 11/13/2011 9:01:39 AM | message detail
Alucard vs. Dracula / Frog vs. Magus gonna be so good
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~ Rivalry Rumble Oracle Challenge ~ Rank - 25th
Today's Prediction: Lawyers - 53.33%
#9 | XIII_rocks | Posted 11/13/2011 9:01:49 AM | message detail
#10 | PartOfYourWorld | Posted 11/13/2011 9:01:53 AM | message detail
WHAT
A
TERRIBLE
NIGHT
TO
HAVE
SAREN
AS
YOUR
RIVAL
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Yoblazer: http://i32.tinypic.com/zlf1w7.gif
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
#11 | charmander6000 | Posted 11/13/2011 9:02:43 AM | message detail
Phoenix Wright vs. Miles Edgeworth - 57.30%

Not too surprising.
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/Rivalry%20BOP.xls
Rivalry Rumble: 20/20 Today: Gordon Freeman/Dr. Breen & Alucard/Dracula
#12 | voltch | Posted 11/13/2011 9:02:57 AM | message detail
bleeding % all over.
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Vote for this guy in every contest: War
#13 | pjbasis | Posted 11/13/2011 9:03:07 AM | message detail
60-40 really?

Man...
#14 | GrapefruitKing | Posted 11/13/2011 9:03:10 AM | message detail
wow, 'Card/Darc went from low 70's to 63 FAST
might not even finish over 60%
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~ Rivalry Rumble Oracle Challenge ~ Rank - 25th
Today's Prediction: Lawyers - 53.33%
#15 | FateStayAlbion | Posted 11/13/2011 9:03:26 AM | message detail
#16 | _Regaro_ | Posted 11/13/2011 9:04:06 AM | message detail

From: nintendogirl1 | #007
Think that's incredibly harsh after 80% on what is an awesome picture for Kid/Guy team. I think we need more time to decide still.


No, it's just blatant favoritism <_<
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http://img.imgcake.com/RegaroUlquiorrapngse.png
#17 | Safer Sephiroth 777 | Posted 11/13/2011 9:04:07 AM | message detail
In the previous match people weren't fooled and chose Phoenix.Well done,my I got fooled.Also since you are talking about records so far we haven't a single match that was a suprise.Is this a record?
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GameFaqs is NOT the place to go for relationship advice.Nobody here gets any action unless it is their right or left hand.Including me.~Dawn and Dusk~
#18 | pjbasis | Posted 11/13/2011 9:04:28 AM | message detail
My oracle was looking so good for a moment.
#19 | AlecTrevelyan006 | Posted 11/13/2011 9:04:31 AM | message detail
Welp there goes my spread at least.
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http://img.imgcake.com/nio/51alecpngpa.png -Nio
#20 | abdou | Posted 11/13/2011 9:04:40 AM | message detail
I was hoping for better from the vampires.
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....
#21 | Greyfeld | Posted 11/13/2011 9:05:07 AM | message detail
Jeez, I thought we'd have a worse prediction rate for Phoenix than that. I'm sad now.
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PSN - Aevio
"I'm on a Goomba." - BlackMageJawa
#22 | TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 11/13/2011 9:05:09 AM | message detail
#23 | FateStayAlbion | Posted 11/13/2011 9:05:19 AM | message detail
It never ceases to amaze me how bad WRPG board votes are. How can you drop from 73 to 63% in two minutes when you are ALUCARD.
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http://myanimelist.net/signature/RyanSaotome.png
#24 | AlecTrevelyan006 | Posted 11/13/2011 9:05:39 AM | message detail

From: Greyfeld | #021
Jeez, I thought we'd have a worse prediction rate for Phoenix than that. I'm sad now.


Has a 1 seed ever had under 50% prediction percentage?
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#25 | PartOfYourWorld | Posted 11/13/2011 9:05:53 AM | message detail
We barely lost any Battlers. The guys still perfect are quite knowledgeable.
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Yoblazer: http://oi52.tinypic.com/ad21i1.jpg
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
#26 | charmander6000 | Posted 11/13/2011 9:06:03 AM | message detail
Vampires are fine
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/Rivalry%20BOP.xls
Rivalry Rumble: 20/20 Today: Gordon Freeman/Dr. Breen & Alucard/Dracula
#27 | nintendogirl1 (Moderator) | Posted 11/13/2011 9:06:13 AM | message detail
FateStayAlbion posted...
It never ceases to amaze me how bad WRPG board votes are. How can you drop from 73 to 63% in two minutes when you are ALUCARD.

The Plan.
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Obviously.
#28 | Greyfeld | Posted 11/13/2011 9:06:43 AM | message detail
AlecTrevelyan006 posted...
From: Greyfeld | #021
Jeez, I thought we'd have a worse prediction rate for Phoenix than that. I'm sad now.
Has a 1 seed ever had under 50% prediction percentage?


Not sure. I just know that before the contest started, you couldn't throw a rock without hitting somebody that swore up and down that Gordon had the match on lock.
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PSN - Aevio
"I'm on a Goomba." - BlackMageJawa
#29 | charmander6000 | Posted 11/13/2011 9:07:52 AM | message detail
1 seeds have never been below 50% after round 1, but this match was the most likely to have one.
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/Rivalry%20BOP.xls
Rivalry Rumble: 20/20 Today: Gordon Freeman/Dr. Breen & Alucard/Dracula
#30 | TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 11/13/2011 9:07:53 AM | message detail
Only went up 3 spots on the battle leaderboard. We're not idiots, baby! Its gonna come down to who gets into the semi-finals I think, SF/Trainers and Vampires/CT, maybe Samus/Trainers/SF
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I worship Utli's wang - LtM
#31 | ExThaNemesis | Posted 11/13/2011 9:08:31 AM | message detail
Aw yeah Frog/Magus for the division lookin' stellar.
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"I was wrong" - SmartMuffin
#32 | AlecTrevelyan006 | Posted 11/13/2011 9:08:54 AM | message detail

From: Greyfeld | #028
AlecTrevelyan006 posted...
From: Greyfeld | #021
Jeez, I thought we'd have a worse prediction rate for Phoenix than that. I'm sad now.
Has a 1 seed ever had under 50% prediction percentage?


Not sure. I just know that before the contest started, you couldn't throw a rock without hitting somebody that swore up and down that Gordon had the match on lock.


Only 45% of Gurus picked Gordon.
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#33 | charmander6000 | Posted 11/13/2011 9:09:07 AM | message detail
Only went up 3 spots on the battle leaderboard. We're not idiots, baby! Its gonna come down to who gets into the semi-finals I think, SF/Trainers and Vampires/CT, maybe Samus/Trainers/SF

Yeah in this contest banking is almost not an option if you want to win.
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/Rivalry%20BOP.xls
Rivalry Rumble: 20/20 Today: Gordon Freeman/Dr. Breen & Alucard/Dracula
#34 | pjbasis | Posted 11/13/2011 9:09:11 AM | message detail
Frog/Magus isn't even gonna make this percent on MGS, book it.
#35 | voltch | Posted 11/13/2011 9:09:22 AM | message detail
gogogo Cookie.
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Vote for this guy in every contest: War
#36 | junk_funk | Posted 11/13/2011 9:09:41 AM | message detail
Alright Greyfield whatcha got for me? Say it here or PM me.
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Pobody's nerfect.
#37 | BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 11/13/2011 9:10:17 AM | message detail
Oof. Guess this means the end of my contest run. I had Shepard > Freeman in round 2
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Game of the decade? More like Guru of the decade mirite?
#38 | charmander6000 | Posted 11/13/2011 9:10:33 AM | message detail
What were people expect Alucard/Dracula to get? This is a fine performance.
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/Rivalry%20BOP.xls
Rivalry Rumble: 20/20 Today: Gordon Freeman/Dr. Breen & Alucard/Dracula
#39 | GrapefruitKing | Posted 11/13/2011 9:10:35 AM | message detail
bleh
boring
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~ Rivalry Rumble Oracle Challenge ~ Rank - 25th
Today's Prediction: Lawyers - 53.33%
#40 | FateStayAlbion | Posted 11/13/2011 9:13:06 AM | message detail | (edited)
charmander6000 posted...
What were people expect Alucard/Dracula to get? This is a fine performance.

Mid 50s, since I thought it wasn't a lock.
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http://myanimelist.net/signature/RyanSaotome.png
#41 | PartOfYourWorld | Posted 11/13/2011 9:11:53 AM | message detail | (edited)

From: charmander6000 | #038
What were people expect Alucard/Dracula to get? This is a fine performance.


I think people are expecting Alucard to bleed a lot more. If he holds at 63%, it will be a good performance.
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Yoblazer: http://i33.tinypic.com/ml36gl_th.gif
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
#42 | KamikazePotato | Posted 11/13/2011 9:12:10 AM | message detail
So how does yet another western character getting rocked make people feel about Glados?
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#43 | BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 11/13/2011 9:13:05 AM | message detail
Glados was never losing to Ness, and was never going to beat Frog/Magus, so it's a moot point.
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Game of the decade? More like Guru of the decade mirite?
#44 | nintendogirl1 (Moderator) | Posted 11/13/2011 9:13:46 AM | message detail
KamikazePotato posted...
So how does yet another western character getting rocked make people feel about Glados?

It's completely irrelevant.
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Seriously.
#45 | PartOfYourWorld | Posted 11/13/2011 9:14:39 AM | message detail
Just fine. I'd take Portal to beat Shep here, and Shep may still do a lot of percentage damage, unfortunately. I had Alucard at 65% here blah
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Yoblazer: http://i43.tinypic.com/25z1non.jpg
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
#46 | voltch | Posted 11/13/2011 9:15:00 AM | message detail
I wish it were relevant.

My bracket's riding on the Carl Johnson killer.
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Vote for this guy in every contest: War
#47 | FateStayAlbion | Posted 11/13/2011 9:15:42 AM | message detail
This is one of the most stable matches we've had recently. I don't see it shifting much at all from where we are.
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http://myanimelist.net/signature/RyanSaotome.png
#48 | PartOfYourWorld | Posted 11/13/2011 9:17:05 AM | message detail

From: FateStayAlbion | #047
This is one of the most stable matches we've had recently. I don't see it shifting much at all from where we are.


WRPGs. Shepard is just biding his time for that one update where he takes back 4%. Heck, knowing Western RPGs, it could even be the last update and I wouldn't be surprised!
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Yoblazer: http://i44.tinypic.com/5nw45i.jpg
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
#49 | charmander6000 | Posted 11/13/2011 9:17:31 AM | message detail
Ness > GlaDOS would destroy perfects though. The guru will be left with voltch as the sole perfect.
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/Rivalry%20BOP.xls
Rivalry Rumble: 20/20 Today: Gordon Freeman/Dr. Breen & Alucard/Dracula
#50 | Greyfeld | Posted 11/13/2011 9:18:33 AM | message detail
junk_funk posted...
Alright Greyfield whatcha got for me? Say it here or PM me.

lol well, I was trying to come up with something really degrading, but decided I'd just go for simplicity :P

http://objection.mrdictionary.net/go.php?n=5364544
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PSN - Aevio
"I'm on a Goomba." - BlackMageJawa