GameFAQs Contests

Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1016

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#151 | The Real Truth | Posted 11/12/2011 3:14:49 PM | message detail
Poor Banjo, I was hoping the team could break 25%. At least they're not under 20%.
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#152 | AxemRedRanger | Posted 11/12/2011 3:38:51 PM | message detail
I think it's pretty clear Ness is overrated in the 2010 x-stats by Tifa weirdness - Big Daddy's performance on her and/or her performance on Sephiroth, both of which were a little questionable. Does anyone really believe Ness is worth 26% on Link? That's right around where Tidus was last contest. Tidus can lose as much as wants, but there's no way he drops that one.
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#153 | charmander6000 | Posted 11/12/2011 3:50:49 PM | message detail
Before SFF I would expect Ness to perform better than GlaDOS did against Kirby. Of course GlaDOS's strength last contest doesn't matter considering Portal was given for free and Portal 2 was released since then.
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/Rivalry%20BOP.xls
Rivalry Rumble: 18/18 Today: Zidane/Kuja & Mega Man/Dr. Wily
#154 | Safer Sephiroth 777 | Posted 11/12/2011 3:52:05 PM | message detail
The Southwest division is the most unpredictable of all.In all the others all matches are locked(okay maybe 1 in each round isn't locked.).But here?Anything can happen!I wish though the other divisions were like this,the contest would had more fun...
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#155 | KamikazePotato | Posted 11/12/2011 3:54:35 PM | message detail
thok3 posted...
Who's responsible for the Ness-Gigyas pic? I'm not sure it will help them at all in the contest, but the person who made it did a great job of framing the picture to emphasize that it's a little kid versus an Eldritch Abomination.

That was mine.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#156 | AxemRedRanger | Posted 11/12/2011 7:07:02 PM | message detail | (edited)
I just noticed exactly how bad the votals in Zidane/Kuja vs. Meat Boy/Dr. Fetus were. Beats out Chris/Wesker vs. Dan/Sagat for least popular contest poll by 2500 votes and has less than half the amount of votes as Max Payne/Dirk the Daring in 2002.
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#157 | charmander6000 | Posted 11/12/2011 7:07:06 PM | message detail
Match XXI: (1) Phoenix Wright/Miles Edgeworth vs. (8) Gordon Freeman/Dr. Breen

Previous Contest

Phoenix Wright – 2010
47.30% against Jecht

Miles Edgeworth – 2010
23.78% against Big Boss

Gordon Freeman – 2010
53.25% against Princess Peach
38.04% against Tifa Lockhart

Dr. Breen – N/A
N/A

Analysis

We’ve finally reached the southwest division where over half the matches have been debated to some extent on the board. The first match is also the most hyped match of the first round. While the board favours Phoenix Wright and the way the contest has played out also favours the lawyers I wouldn’t count out Freeman and Breen.

After intensive arguing on the board I think the consensus of individual strength is that Freeman would defeat Phoenix by about the same amount as he did in 2006. Based on his performances Phoenix Wright has stayed roughly constant in terms of strength and while Freeman did go up in strength, however last year’s contest showed a drop of strength to his normal performance. The main thing is that Freeman in a one on one setting is stronger than Phoenix which in my opinion can be easily seen based on Freeman’s performance last contest. While I would take Edgeworth over Dr. Breen in a match we are talking about two of the weakest characters in this bracket and I doubt either one would bring any individual strength to the table.

As for rivalry strength Phoenix and Edgeworth are heroes while Freeman and Breen are zeros. I would almost argue that this match has become almost a two on one scenario. For Freeman to win he has to hope that the boost from the rivalry is smaller than the gap between him and Phoenix, which is possible. Firstly Phoenix gets a lot of his strength away from his games, mostly from the objection meme. While this gives him strength it leaves a good portion of the fanbase unaware of the existence of Miles Edgeworth, let alone knowledge of the rivalry, this helps explain why Edgeworth is so weak compare to Phoenix. Then you have to consider the concept of rivalry factor where the whole point is to convince Freeman voters that Phoenix and Edgeworth are a better rivalry. This obviously questions how much overlap does the two series have and given how much Phoenix Wright fans love their game is there a significant amount of fans that are more neutral, but would change their minds because of the whole rivalry concept.

Then you have the people that feel Phoenix Wright is going to get a hype boost from being announced in the updated Marvel vs. Capcom 3. Ignoring that the game holds no water compare to other hyped games only Phoenix Wright fans seem to be going crazy over the announcement and while it may give non-fans knowledge of Wright’s existence he doesn’t exactly have that problem since most people remember him from the objection meme, plus the game doesn’t show anything about his rivalry with Edgeworth which in my opinion is the thing he needs most.

Phoenix and Edgeworth will be going in as the favourites, but I’ll stay aboard this ship because I do see Freeman and Breen having a legit chance at winning this match. Of course everything needs to fall in place for it to do so, but that’s what these contests are all about.

charmander6000’s Bracket: Gordon Freeman/Dr. Breen > Phoenix Wright/Miles Edgeworth

charmander6000’s Prediction: Gordon Freeman/Dr. Breen wins, 51.23% - 48.77%
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Rivalry Rumble: 18/18 Today: Zidane/Kuja & Mega Man/Dr. Wily
#158 | KamikazePotato | Posted 11/12/2011 7:08:45 PM | message detail
By the way, does anyone else think that Chell/GlaDOS vs. Ness/Giygas is being criminally underdiscussed? Chell and Giygas are non-factors. Ness probably beats GlaDOS 1 v 1. Rivalry factor goes to Chell/GlaDOS, but their names are still never said in-game.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#159 | junk_funk | Posted 11/12/2011 7:11:17 PM | message detail
KamikazePotato posted...
By the way, does anyone else think that Chell/GlaDOS vs. Ness/Giygas is being criminally underdiscussed? Chell and Giygas are non-factors. Ness probably beats GlaDOS 1 v 1. Rivalry factor goes to Chell/GlaDOS, but their names are still never said in-game.

When you made that pic where Ness gets no real estate it kind of took the breath out of the argument that he has a chance.
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#160 | AlecTrevelyan006 | Posted 11/12/2011 7:11:55 PM | message detail

From: KamikazePotato | #158
By the way, does anyone else think that Chell/GlaDOS vs. Ness/Giygas is being criminally underdiscussed? Chell and Giygas are non-factors. Ness probably beats GlaDOS 1 v 1. Rivalry factor goes to Chell/GlaDOS, but their names are still never said in-game.


I thought Ness had a good shot pre-contest.

Not feeling it so much now.
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#161 | KamikazePotato | Posted 11/12/2011 7:12:31 PM | message detail
I think Ness has the pic advantage there. It's far, far more eye-catching that Chell vs. GlaDOS, which consists of two entities you will see for 1% of the game total.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#162 | KamikazePotato | Posted 11/12/2011 7:13:33 PM | message detail
What's changed since then? If anything, I think Ness has a better shot now than he did before. Ezio certainly doesn't help recent-gen characters' arguments.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#163 | LeonhartFour | Posted 11/12/2011 7:13:47 PM | message detail
Anyone who's actually played Earthbound will probably love that pic and get a nostalgia rush.

Just depends on how many Earthbound people will be voting.
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#164 | junk_funk | Posted 11/12/2011 7:14:10 PM | message detail
KamikazePotato posted...
I think Ness has the pic advantage there. It's far, far more eye-catching that Chell vs. GlaDOS, which consists of two entities you will see for 1% of the game total.

You said it yourself. Giygas and Chell are no draws in this match. It'll be micro-Ness against GLaDOS. Tilts the scales.
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#165 | AlecTrevelyan006 | Posted 11/12/2011 7:15:27 PM | message detail

From: KamikazePotato | #161
I think Ness has the pic advantage there. It's far, far more eye-catching that Chell vs. GlaDOS, which consists of two entities you will see for 1% of the game total.


I love the pic as an Earthbound fan.

But Ness gets more strength from Smash than Earthbound on this site, and the pic minimizes Ness who is the only part of that rivalry with strength.
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#166 | Team Rocket Elite (Moderator) | Posted 11/12/2011 7:18:49 PM | message detail
I think Ness has the pic advantage there. It's far, far more eye-catching that Chell vs. GlaDOS, which consists of two entities you will see for 1% of the game total.

Fortunately for Chell and GlaDOS, Giygas dominates the picture and it also shows up for less than 1% of the game.
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#167 | KamikazePotato | Posted 11/12/2011 7:20:58 PM | message detail
GlaDOS is a worse pic draw than Giygas. You almost never see GlaDOS, and she doesn't have a particularly recognizable design. Giygas, while still not seen until the end of the game, is very distinctive, even to people who haven't seen him before. The pic dynamic probably helps with that, I think. Would it really matter if Ness had a lot of space on the picture? The fact that he's getting dwarfed by an opponent is probably better. Pic factor is not usually about which pic is the most generically 'best', and rather which pic catches the eye more. For example,

http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/albums/gotd/gotd-010.jpg

When this pic was released last year, people predicted an amazing beatdown for Mother 3. Didn't happen.

Besides, Ness isn't Solid Snake. I doubt the pic matters that much for him either way. Dismissing the match entirely based on that seems silly.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#168 | AlecTrevelyan006 | Posted 11/12/2011 7:24:19 PM | message detail
I'm not dismissing the match based on that, I'm just not feeling Ness at this point.

For people who have never played Earthbound, Giygas pic is not a draw at all.

And it's not so much that Chell/Glados has a pic advantage as Ness DOESN'T have a pic advantage.
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#169 | WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 11/12/2011 7:24:21 PM | message detail
Making the picture stand out was honestly the best Giygas could hope to add to Team Earthbound. The guy wasn't going to add to Ness's strength any to help put him over Chell/GlaDOS.
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#170 | FateStayAlbion | Posted 11/12/2011 7:25:13 PM | message detail
If you had to give a percentage for how confident you feel about Phoenix/Wright winning tonight, what would it be? As said earlier, I think its like 75%.
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#171 | KamikazePotato | Posted 11/12/2011 7:25:30 PM | message detail
Ness would never have a distinct pic advantage over anyone. He's not someone you vote for based on his design!
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#172 | junk_funk | Posted 11/12/2011 7:27:32 PM | message detail
I have Ness in my bracket. Hope to God I'm wrong, but I switched my battle pick.
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#173 | AlecTrevelyan006 | Posted 11/12/2011 7:29:43 PM | message detail

From: KamikazePotato | #171
Ness would never have a distinct pic advantage over anyone. He's not someone you vote for based on his design!


He's someone people vote for thanks to Smash, so reminding people of that is the closest I'd think he'd be to a pic advantage!
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#174 | PartOfYourWorld | Posted 11/12/2011 7:30:13 PM | message detail | (edited)

From: KamikazePotato | #161
I think Ness has the pic advantage there. It's far, far more eye-catching that Chell vs. GlaDOS, which consists of two entities you will see for 1% of the game total.


If that's how you approach it, then can Chell or GlaDOS ever have a picture advantage against anyone? I think you may be underselling the Portal fanbase (and gamers hardcore enough to vote on GameFAQs). They know what the characters look like. This is a really hardcore site. Like half the people here have never played Ace Attorney but still understand the memes.
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#175 | charmander6000 | Posted 11/12/2011 7:30:17 PM | message detail
GlaDOS/Ness feels like Portal/FFXII where FFXII was stronger in the previous contest, but Portal is a different beast since we last saw it.
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#176 | KamikazePotato | Posted 11/12/2011 7:31:45 PM | message detail
then can Chell or GlaDOS ever have a picture advantage against anyone?

Honestly, no. Two of the least-photogenic characters in existence.

I still don't think it matters much either way. Again, this isn't Solid Snake. Why are we discussing the pic and not the match?
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#177 | LeonhartFour | Posted 11/12/2011 7:34:30 PM | message detail
So let's ask this:

How much do Phoenix/Edgey need at the freeze for you to feel confident that they will win and Gordon/Breen won't come back?
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#178 | PartOfYourWorld | Posted 11/12/2011 7:36:47 PM | message detail
The pic is very important to this match, I think.

I'm not criticizing the quality of your picture. I think if you wanted to make a clever picture that Earthbound fans could appreciate, you did an excellent job. If you wanted to make a picture to help Ness win, you did a poor job. Earthbound doesn't win matches for Ness. Smash does. The picture should have had a heavy emphasis on Smash Bros. somehow (I'm not sure how you really do this since Giygas does not appear in Smash). Using sprite/gameplay/memories from an incredibly weak, 16-year-old game can certainly make for an artistic and quality picture, but probably not a match-winning one.
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#179 | AlecTrevelyan006 | Posted 11/12/2011 7:36:57 PM | message detail

From: LeonhartFour | #177
So let's ask this:

How much do Phoenix/Edgey need at the freeze for you to feel confident that they will win and Gordon/Breen won't come back?


49%
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#180 | FateStayAlbion | Posted 11/12/2011 7:37:13 PM | message detail
LeonhartFour posted...
So let's ask this:

How much do Phoenix/Edgey need at the freeze for you to feel confident that they will win and Gordon/Breen won't come back?


55-56%
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#181 | WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 11/12/2011 7:37:18 PM | message detail
charmander6000 posted...
GlaDOS/Ness feels like Portal/FFXII where FFXII was stronger in the previous contest, but Portal is a different beast since we last saw it.

If anyone is taking Chell/GlaDOS because they think GlaDOS would beat Ness then they're nuts. They're just going to happen to be right but for the wrong reasons.

And Phoenix/Edgeworth honestly will have to be blowing Gordon/breen out of the water for me to feel safe. If there's a match to be horribly horribly front-loaded this is it.
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#182 | LeonhartFour | Posted 11/12/2011 7:38:03 PM | message detail

From: PartOfYourWorld | #178
The picture should have had a heavy emphasis on Smash Bros. somehow


No, it shouldn't.

Using games that the rivalry doesn't originate from is dumb, I think. It may "look good," but I think it's a bad idea.

Besides, are we really arguing that Ness has "pic appeal?" He's a nerdy looking kid with a hat and a bat.
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#183 | FateStayAlbion | Posted 11/12/2011 7:39:00 PM | message detail
This board vote will be crazy for Phoenix. It could be like 70% a minute in and I'm still not sure if I'd feel safe.
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#184 | charmander6000 | Posted 11/12/2011 7:39:24 PM | message detail
If anyone is taking Chell/GlaDOS because they think GlaDOS would beat Ness then they're nuts. They're just going to happen to be right but for the wrong reasons.

Chell/GlaDOS doesn't exactly scream rivalry to me.
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Rivalry Rumble: 18/18 Today: Zidane/Kuja & Mega Man/Dr. Wily
#185 | SabrielAbhorsen | Posted 11/12/2011 7:39:28 PM | message detail
Who is expected to benefit more from the night, phoenix or freeman?
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#186 | LeonhartFour | Posted 11/12/2011 7:39:57 PM | message detail

From: SabrielAbhorsen | #185
Who is expected to benefit more from the night, phoenix or freeman?


Phoenix.

Gordon is night-oriented, but Phoenix Wright is ALL night vote.
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#187 | charmander6000 | Posted 11/12/2011 7:40:06 PM | message detail
PW would need at least 55% before I would start worrying.
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Rivalry Rumble: 18/18 Today: Zidane/Kuja & Mega Man/Dr. Wily
#188 | KamikazePotato | Posted 11/12/2011 7:40:12 PM | message detail
GlaDOS could beat Ness 1 v 1, but I wouldn't bet on it.
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#189 | FateStayAlbion | Posted 11/12/2011 7:40:35 PM | message detail
SabrielAbhorsen posted...
Who is expected to benefit more from the night, phoenix or freeman?

I'd imagine it'll be even. Some people will say Phoenix since he'd get the first hour push, but he'd get those same loyal voters even in a day match early on.
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#190 | thok3 | Posted 11/12/2011 7:40:55 PM | message detail
I love the Ness/Gigyas pic, but there's no way it gives any pic advantage of any importance over Chell/Glados. If this was a "Most terrifying boss fight" contest, then there would be a pic advantage, but not in a rivalry rumble.
#191 | LeonhartFour | Posted 11/12/2011 7:41:23 PM | message detail
For the record, Phoenix had 52.20% on Jecht at the freeze and finished with 47.30%, about a 5% drop. Jecht almost certainly has a stronger night vote than Gordon, as well.
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#192 | PartOfYourWorld | Posted 11/12/2011 7:41:44 PM | message detail

From: LeonhartFour | #182
Using games that the rivalry doesn't originate from is dumb, I think.


Not when those games are literally 10x stronger than the games the rivalry does originate from. Let's put it this way: would anyone be giving Ness a second thought here if the Mother series is all he had? No. He'd be terrible, awful, winless fodder who'd only manage a win if he draws Guybrush in R1. Smash wins him his matches. You gotta go with your strength, and Ness is a Smash guy, same as Captain Falcon and Meta Knight.
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#193 | LeonhartFour | Posted 11/12/2011 7:41:49 PM | message detail

From: FateStayAlbion | #189
Some people will say Phoenix since he'd get the first hour push, but he'd get those same loyal voters even in a day match early on.


Phoenix is pretty strong in Europe. He wouldn't get that benefit in a day match.
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#194 | WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 11/12/2011 7:42:27 PM | message detail
KamikazePotato posted...
GlaDOS could beat Ness 1 v 1, but I wouldn't bet on it.

61-39 is a lot to turn around just from one game when the first game was already so popular. Even moreso when GlaDOS might be overrated and Ness might be underrated in 2010 stats.
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#195 | LeonhartFour | Posted 11/12/2011 7:43:09 PM | message detail

From: PartOfYourWorld | #192
Not when those games are literally 10x stronger than the games the rivalry does originate from. Let's put it this way: would anyone be giving Ness a second thought here if the Mother series is all he had? No. He'd be terrible, awful, winless fodder who'd only manage a win if he draws Guybrush in R1. Smash wins him his matches. You gotta go with your strength, and Ness is a Smash guy, same as Captain Falcon and Meta Knight.


From: LeonhartFour | #182
Using games that the rivalry doesn't originate from is dumb, I think. It may "look good," but I think it's a bad idea.


Yeah, I already addressed this. I don't really care about what makes Ness strongest. He should have a pic that accurately represents the rivalry, not something that will (supposedly) give him a strength boost since he's so photogenic.
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#196 | LeonhartFour | Posted 11/12/2011 7:43:34 PM | message detail

From: WarThaNemesis2 | #194
Even moreso when GlaDOS might be overrated and Ness might be underrated in 2010 stats.


...Why would Ness be underrated? If anything, Tifa overperformed on Sephiroth.
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#197 | KamikazePotato | Posted 11/12/2011 7:44:02 PM | message detail
I severely doubt that showing Ness in a smash render would make any difference. Remember, this is not Solid Snake. Pic factor only works when a good amount of votes come from a cool design, and it primarily only affects 'badass' characters, like Snake, Altair, Ryu Hayabusa ect. Do you really think that Ness is going to change much, if at all?
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#198 | charmander6000 | Posted 11/12/2011 7:44:09 PM | message detail
GlaDOS might be overrated and Ness might be underrated in 2010 stats

I think you have that backwards
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#199 | WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 11/12/2011 7:44:16 PM | message detail
LeonhartFour posted...
From: WarThaNemesis2 | #194
Even moreso when GlaDOS might be overrated and Ness might be underrated in 2010 stats.
...Why would Ness be underrated? If anything, Tifa overperformed on Sephiroth.


Ness had a night match against Big Daddy.
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#200 | LeonhartFour | Posted 11/12/2011 7:45:15 PM | message detail

From: WarThaNemesis2 | #199
Ness had a night match against Big Daddy.


...And? Big Daddy is actually better during the day than at night. He has a very good day vote, according to 2008 trends.
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