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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1015

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#201 | PartOfYourWorld | Posted 11/10/2011 9:37:15 PM | message detail

From: IngmarBirdman | #195
Also, what do you guys think will be the rivalries most punished by the x-stats?


You mean which one will finish last or which one will get most screwed over? I think Dan/Sagat will finish under Vyse, because I don't expect Wesker to hold up well to The Bosses. That one could be ugly.
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#202 | LeonhartFour | Posted 11/10/2011 9:40:25 PM | message detail
Dead last in the stats could be Conker/Poo.

Mario/Bowser is going to do bad, bad things to Ike/Black Knight. That one may be worse than Jim/Queen.

Also, whoever winds up dead last in Squall's division is probably going to end up looking really bad in the final stats (Thanks, Allen).

For some reason, it feels like Bacon doesn't actually pay attention to who Squall's faced every year. We've already seen multiple Squall/Snake and Squall/Sora matches, and we're potentially on our way to Cloud/Squall III.

And even if Snake/Liquid beat Cloud/Sephy, we still get another Squall/Snake!

(Although admittedly that would be better for Squall/Seifer as a whole)
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#203 | junk_funk | Posted 11/10/2011 9:42:04 PM | message detail
LeonhartFour posted...
But the issue here is that you're comparing 1-on-1 strength, and we've already seen that doesn't necessarily matter.

Where's the proof Leon could beat Subby by himself. Then you splash Scorp in there. Nothing has been proven yet. In fact, Samus helped disprove that.
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#204 | General_Zimbad | Posted 11/10/2011 9:43:51 PM | message detail
Pretty sure gordon has got this. I just can't see PW beating him at all. Does the "rivalry factor" really matter that much?
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#205 | LeonhartFour | Posted 11/10/2011 9:44:30 PM | message detail

From: junk_funk | #203
Where's the proof Leon could beat Subby by himself. Then you splash Scorp in there. Nothing has been proven yet. In fact, Samus helped disprove that.


If you want to believe Sub-Zero or Scorpion could approach 70% on Leon Kennedy, that's your prerogative.

Just don't expect many people to agree with you.
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#206 | Greyfeld | Posted 11/10/2011 9:45:13 PM | message detail
junk_funk posted...
LeonhartFour posted...
But the issue here is that you're comparing 1-on-1 strength, and we've already seen that doesn't necessarily matter.

Where's the proof Leon could beat Subby by himself. Then you splash Scorp in there. Nothing has been proven yet. In fact, Samus helped disprove that.


http://thengamer.com/xstats/?name1=Leon Kennedy&year1=2010c&name2=Sub-Zero&year2=2010c
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#207 | junk_funk | Posted 11/10/2011 9:48:50 PM | message detail
LeonhartFour posted...
If you want to believe Sub-Zero or Scorpion could approach 70% on Leon Kennedy, that's your prerogative.

Just don't expect many people to agree with you.


No way. It'd be 50~55 range, but in who's favor is toss up.
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#208 | LeonhartFour | Posted 11/10/2011 9:49:37 PM | message detail
Yesterday's chart:

Time | Tidecht | Bosses | Votes
0:05 | 41.29% | 58.71% | 511
1:00 | 40.46% | 59.54% | 5091
2:00 | 39.74% | 60.26% | 4295
3:00 | 41.46% | 58.54% | 3862
4:00 | 40.96% | 59.04% | 3726
5:00 | 41.01% | 58.99% | 3789
6:00 | 38.98% | 61.02% | 3502
7:00 | 39.10% | 60.90% | 3297
8:00 | 39.43% | 60.57% | 2960
9:00 | 41.37% | 58.63% | 2695
10:00 | 40.87% | 59.13% | 2491
11:00 | 41.06% | 58.94% | 2294
12:00 | 40.06% | 59.94% | 2007

Bosses do best in the middle of the match. Tidus/Jecht do best at the beginning and the end.
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#209 | LeonhartFour | Posted 11/10/2011 9:50:17 PM | message detail

From: junk_funk | #207
No way. It'd be 50~55 range, but in who's favor is toss up.


So we agree it'd be nowhere near 73% then.

So what's the issue here with this contest not being as easy to analyze as comparing the two strongest characters in it?
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#210 | creativename | Posted 11/10/2011 9:52:03 PM | message detail

From: LeonhartFour | #118
So are Cloud and Aerith, but that doesn't make them rivals! Or Cloud and Zack, Squall and Laguna, or whatever other pairing you want to throw in there!

As an FFX fan, I wouldn't vote for Auron/Jecht over that much because it's not much of a rivalry.


But I was talking about how they'd do in the poll. Not how much you feel they are a "true" rivalry. And there's some rivalry elements there anyway, as I went over, even if it's a "salvation" oriented rivalry.

Also...

FF7 SPOILERS

Cloud and Zack sort of are rivals in a loose sense aren't they? Zack's ghost looms large over the Cloud/Aeris relationship, even though Cloud wants to be Zack. It's a very intriguing rivalry/hero worship dynamic. At any rate that team would rule!

END FF7 SPOILERS

From: Xuxon | #155
Cloud/Seph are still winning this contest BTW. I haven't doubted that for a moment and I picked Link 86% in my oracle.


Well I'm not as confident as you, but I also called Link to get the sextupling here (although I was asleep so I neglected to raise my Oracle a couple points...) and it definitely does not mean Link is a lock to win the contest, or even that he should be a large favorite.

I've been repeating it a lot too, and trying to tell people how badly Link was going to wreck this poll. Anyone who thinks this poll means "LOL Link doubters" is totally fooling themselves.

But yeah - I feel like if Link is favored over Cloud/Seph, it's by very little, and I'm pretty happy to have Cloud/Seph in my bracket. If only I'd picked Ken/Ryu over Samus like my first instinct.
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#211 | LeonhartFour | Posted 11/10/2011 9:54:39 PM | message detail

From: creativename | #210
But I was talking about how they'd do in the poll. Not how much you feel they are a "true" rivalry. And there's some rivalry elements there anyway, as I went over, even if it's a "salvation" oriented rivalry.


But how good of a rivalry they are will affect how well they do. If the voters don't feel Auron/Jecht is a good rivalry, they'll suffer for it. At least that's what I think. I don't really believe just plugging together the two strongest characters from the game would necessarily equal the best possible combination. If this were just a straight up tag team tournament, then sure. But the quality of the rivalry does matter, I think, and Auron/Jecht's rivalry is a little lacking. I don't think the fans would see it as a rivalry.
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#212 | creativename | Posted 11/10/2011 9:54:53 PM | message detail

From: ExThaNemesis | #158
Are you freaking daft?


No, he's just wiser than you :)

From: Neosadus | #190But if Cloud/Mario wins we know its people looking at all 4 characters and picking the side with 2 characters favoring over the other 2.

In my opinion I think it's more about the strength of the 2 characters rather than the rivalry factor between the two characters.


It's definitely about both. Rivalry factor absolutely matters.

However, there's only so much ground it can make up for. Cloud/Mario would probably beat Link/Ganon going away. There is both a "tag team" and a "better rivalry" element to these things.

In the end the tag team clearly matters much more in a relative sense, throw two random completely unrelated characters against two much weaker characters who are great rivals, the stronger characters will win. The thing is that pre-contest, most were underestimating the rivalry element heavily.
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#213 | JJH777 | Posted 11/10/2011 9:55:19 PM | message detail
Auron/Jecht are totally a rivalry they compete with each other to be the better guardian.
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#214 | junk_funk | Posted 11/10/2011 9:55:25 PM | message detail
LeonhartFour posted...
So what's the issue here with this contest not being as easy to analyze as comparing the two strongest characters in it?

Sub and Scorp are two legit contenders even in singles. Leon and Ada had only one legit contender. Phoenix and Miles are two legit creampuffs.

If I can tell anything about 2010, I'd say Phoenix would get 55% on Ratchet. That makes him a nobody. Gordon would school Ratchet.
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#215 | LeonhartFour | Posted 11/10/2011 9:59:31 PM | message detail

From: junk_funk | #214
If I can tell anything about 2010, I'd say Phoenix would get 55% on Ratchet. That makes him a nobody. Gordon would school Ratchet.


If you consider 60/40 "schooling," then sure.

Gordon/Phoenix is a 58/42 match based on last year's stats.

Phoenix Wright at night is a legit low midcarder. Gordon Freeman isn't that much better.
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#216 | Team Rocket Elite (Moderator) | Posted 11/10/2011 10:00:40 PM | message detail
Leon and Ada had only one legit contender.

Breen is a legit contender?
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#217 | creativename | Posted 11/10/2011 10:01:03 PM | message detail

From: LeonhartFour | #211
But how good of a rivalry they are will affect how well they do. If the voters don't feel Auron/Jecht is a good rivalry, they'll suffer for it. At least that's what I think. I don't really believe just plugging together the two strongest characters from the game would necessarily equal the best possible combination. If this were just a straight up tag team tournament, then sure. But the quality of the rivalry does matter, I think, and Auron/Jecht's rivalry is a little lacking. I don't think the fans would see it as a rivalry.


I really disagree with you. And I think most people would.

Auron/Jecht just makes a great team, regardless of how strong a rivalry they are (and there is some rivalry aspect there, there was a very big personality clash while they were with Braska). And I think some of the "rivalry" aspect is partially a "chemistry" aspect - Auron and Jecht, on top of being rivals, having tremendous chemistry.

I just cannot see how you can think that Auron/Jecht wouldn't do much better than Tidus/Jecht. This does not compute to me.
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#218 | IngmarBirdman | Posted 11/10/2011 10:01:03 PM | message detail
Wow, he's still going up.

Dat Nintendo Power Hour.
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#219 | Xuxon | Posted 11/10/2011 10:02:59 PM | message detail

From: junk_funk | #214
Sub and Scorp are two legit contenders even in singles. Leon and Ada had only one legit contender.


Ada's no weaker than The Boss, and the bosses did just fine for themselves.
#220 | LeonhartFour | Posted 11/10/2011 10:04:28 PM | message detail

From: creativename | #217
I really disagree with you. And I think most people would.

Auron/Jecht just makes a great team, regardless of how strong a rivalry they are (and there is some rivalry aspect there, there was a very big personality clash while they were with Braska). And I think some of the "rivalry" aspect is partially a "chemistry" aspect - Auron and Jecht, on top of being rivals, having tremendous chemistry.

I just cannot see how you can think that Auron/Jecht wouldn't do much better than Tidus/Jecht. This does not compute to me.


Because I don't view this the same way you do, obviously. There's some merit to the idea of team chemistry, but I do think people are taking into consideration the actual quality of the rivalry when voting, rather than the combined quality of the two characters in the match. I wouldn't predict a drastic improvement if you substitute Auron for Tidus just because Auron is notably stronger.

And I really don't think most people see Auron/Jecht as a great rivalry. The worst they do in FFX even with Braska is bicker.
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#221 | Greyfeld | Posted 11/10/2011 10:09:02 PM | message detail
creativename posted...
Auron/Jecht just makes a great team, regardless of how strong a rivalry they are (and there is some rivalry aspect there, there was a very big personality clash while they were with Braska). And I think some of the "rivalry" aspect is partially a "chemistry" aspect - Auron and Jecht, on top of being rivals, having tremendous chemistry.

I just cannot see how you can think that Auron/Jecht wouldn't do much better than Tidus/Jecht. This does not compute to me.


As much as I agree with you about their rivalry, I think that a lot of casuals would see the pairing the same way Leon does. Which is why I think it would be weaker than Tidus/Jecht.

Then again, who's to say that Auron's raw strength wouldn't kill that match, regardless? He's a near-elite, himself.
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#222 | LeonhartFour | Posted 11/10/2011 10:10:05 PM | message detail
Auron/Big Boss would be a pretty close match, honestly, even if Auron likely wins. Jecht probably beats The Boss, but not by a whole lot either.
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#223 | junk_funk | Posted 11/10/2011 10:13:27 PM | message detail
Team Rocket Elite posted...
Breen is a legit contender?

Breen blows. Sub and Scorp were legit. Phoenix and Miles are not.

Xuxon posted...
Ada's no weaker than The Boss, and the bosses did just fine for themselves.

If you want me to say Sub and Scorp benefit from being a fighting game then that's what I'll say. It was also backed by being two of the better characters in the match. Sub is on par with Leon and Scorp blows away Ada. 90's nostalgia. Leon's losing strength. Whatever you want to call it.

Phoenix and Miles are not Sub and Scorp. They are punching bag one and punching bag two. They have yet to prove otherwise, and in fact have failed miserably at trying. Gordon, while he did go through GFNW, now has good strength. That's all it will take. One character with solid strength.

Just like Samus will take down the Southeast division based on her strength alone.

Anyways, I'm out of this discussion. Bed time.
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#224 | Team Rocket Elite (Moderator) | Posted 11/10/2011 10:21:50 PM | message detail
Gordon isn't really that strong himself. He's stronger than Phoenix than Leon is over Sub-Zero but it's not by a huge amount. Breen is just awful even compared to Edgeworth. On top of all this, Phoenix only needs 50%+1 to win the match not 73.22%.
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#225 | Greyfeld | Posted 11/10/2011 10:24:16 PM | message detail
junk_funk posted...
Team Rocket Elite posted...
Breen is a legit contender?

Breen blows. Sub and Scorp were legit. Phoenix and Miles are not.

Xuxon posted...
Ada's no weaker than The Boss, and the bosses did just fine for themselves.

If you want me to say Sub and Scorp benefit from being a fighting game then that's what I'll say. It was also backed by being two of the better characters in the match. Sub is on par with Leon and Scorp blows away Ada. 90's nostalgia. Leon's losing strength. Whatever you want to call it.

Phoenix and Miles are not Sub and Scorp. They are punching bag one and punching bag two. They have yet to prove otherwise, and in fact have failed miserably at trying. Gordon, while he did go through GFNW, now has good strength. That's all it will take. One character with solid strength.

Just like Samus will take down the Southeast division based on her strength alone.

Anyways, I'm out of this discussion. Bed time.


LOL I'll sig-bet you that Phoenix/Edgeworth spanks Gordon/Breen all the way home.
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#226 | creativename | Posted 11/10/2011 10:25:19 PM | message detail

From: LeonhartFour | #220
Because I don't view this the same way you do, obviously. There's some merit to the idea of team chemistry, but I do think people are taking into consideration the actual quality of the rivalry when voting, rather than the combined quality of the two characters in the match.


Well yeah, I've been one of the most vocal proponents of that from the start!

From: LeonhartFour | #220
I wouldn't predict a drastic improvement if you substitute Auron for Tidus just because Auron is notably stronger.


Again, I think there would be some mixing of "chemistry" with "rivalry" here. And it's not like Auron and Jecht have no relationship - pretty much everything Auron does is about Jecht. And it surely isn't a Link/Ganon situation where the secondary character adds almost nothing. Auron and Jecht do complement one another.

I do think there is a "relationship" aspect here that would matter in these polls, in addition to the rivalry one. I'm sure there are a number of teams out there that have almost no rivalry whatsoever - yet because the two characters have great interaction, they'd benefit from the "rivalry" format because I think people would be loose with that terminology. There's probably a number of hero/heroine romantic pairs that would benefit from this, for instance, just from a few scenes of them bickering but living happily ever after in the end.

From: Greyfeld | #221
creativename posted...Which is why I think it would be weaker than Tidus/Jecht.


There's like no way this is even possible.
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#227 | pjbasis | Posted 11/10/2011 10:26:53 PM | message detail

From: PartOfYourWorld | #198
This is, admittedly, the first time Link has avoided a warning salvo in ten matches.


XFD
#228 | LeonhartFour | Posted 11/10/2011 10:27:36 PM | message detail

From: creativename | #226
There's probably a number of hero/heroine romantic pairs that would benefit from this, for instance, just from a few scenes of them bickering but living happily ever after in the end.


I think you're expecting people to be a little too loose with the definition of rivalry here. I don't really agree with this.
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#229 | pjbasis | Posted 11/10/2011 10:29:48 PM | message detail
Shoulda been Yuna/Leblanc tbqh.
#230 | Greyfeld | Posted 11/10/2011 10:30:44 PM | message detail
creativename posted...
There's like no way this is even possible.

Why not? This is a popularity contest. I'm sure there are plenty of people that think Tidus/Jecht are more of a rivalry than Auron/Jecht.
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#231 | Xuxon | Posted 11/10/2011 10:30:45 PM | message detail
Hmm, I don't know about a romantic pair, but I think Auron/Jecht works fine as a rivalry. Sort of like X/Zero.
#232 | pjbasis | Posted 11/10/2011 10:33:02 PM | message detail

From: Xuxon | #231
Hmm, I don't know about a romantic pair, but I think Auron/Jecht works fine as a rivalry.


Auron/Jecht for best Couple ever.

Couple Quarrel?
#233 | Xuxon | Posted 11/10/2011 10:35:01 PM | message detail
Damn English and its ambiguities!
#234 | PartOfYourWorld | Posted 11/10/2011 10:35:39 PM | message detail
Oh dammit, this isn't going under 84%, is it.
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#235 | ZenOfThunder | Posted 11/10/2011 10:37:01 PM | message detail
NOPE

link has arthas by his cold, frozen balls
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#236 | Haguile | Posted 11/10/2011 10:40:54 PM | message detail
...For some strange reason I'm nervous about Amaterasu's match even though I don't think I should be.
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#237 | Team Rocket Elite (Moderator) | Posted 11/10/2011 10:41:54 PM | message detail
Amaterasu isn't going to lose. Lots of potential for screwing with an Oracle prediction, though.
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#238 | LeonhartFour | Posted 11/10/2011 10:44:41 PM | message detail
#239 | AlecTrevelyan006 | Posted 11/10/2011 10:44:44 PM | message detail
So, you know how some people have talked about how the pic smiths will put Charizard/Blastoise in...

Hearing how the picsmiths are barely getting in any pitches, I'm wondering how much of an influence they'll be.

Quick, how do Zen and Ulti feel about pokemon >_>
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#240 | PartOfYourWorld | Posted 11/10/2011 10:47:34 PM | message detail
KP usually makes excellent Pokemon pictures, and he'll be trying some stuff with Charizard/Blastoise for sure. So will I, as my bracket will (hopefully) be riding on it. If I'm out by that point, though, I'd prefer to make the best Ken/Ryu pic I can. Ulti's bracket will be toast if/when the Trainers beat Luigi, so he'll probably be on board for Poke-fest. Not sure if Zen is a fan, though.
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#241 | ZenOfThunder | Posted 11/10/2011 10:55:59 PM | message detail
Zen feels ok about Pokemon, but Zen doesn't do their pics because his good friend KP loves it much much more
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#242 | greatone10 | Posted 11/10/2011 10:56:56 PM | message detail
Pokemon is really photogenic, so I'd image Red/Blue is getting awesome pics no matter what.

The same goes true for Team Lawyer as well, which is another reason to back them against Half-Life.
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#243 | ZenOfThunder | Posted 11/10/2011 10:57:29 PM | message detail | (edited)
YOBLAZER, I CHALLENGE YOU TO A PIC DUEL

You shall make a bangin' Pokemon pic, and I shall make a bangin' Street Fighter pic

AND WE WILL SEE WHO IS SUPERIOR

I'M CALLIN' YOU OUT YO
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#244 | junk_funk | Posted 11/10/2011 11:04:10 PM | message detail
Greyfeld posted...
LOL I'll sig-bet you that Phoenix/Edgeworth spanks Gordon/Breen all the way home.

Bah sue me. Can't sleep. I'm up now and playing FFVI.

VERY interested. Never had one of these before. How does it work? When Gordon whomps Phoenix I get to make a sig for you that you have to use for X amount of time right?

How about we keep the sig for 60 days after the match? And no posting with alts. Then you got yourself a deal.
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#245 | Haguile | Posted 11/10/2011 11:05:03 PM | message detail
I love Pokemon but I suck at making match pics. So instead of trying to support Red/Blue by making match pics I've been making terrible match pics for their opponents.
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#246 | creativename | Posted 11/10/2011 11:05:12 PM | message detail
There is pretty much no way for the Trainers vs. Ryu/Ken picture to be bad on either side.

Seriously, you know the Pokepic will be epic especially if it's sprites, and it's freakin' Ryu/Ken. Someone would have to intentionally sabotage those teams for either pic to look bad.

I'm sure the pic will rule, and will be fitting for arguably the most hyped match of the contest behind Zelda/FF7.

From: PartOfYourWorld | #234
Oh dammit, this isn't going under 84%, is it.


I said this would be a sextupling and it's right around there. I wouldn't overhype Link based on this. He's still quite vulnerable from everything we've seen that actually meant something.

From: Haguile | #236
...For some strange reason I'm nervous about Amaterasu's match even though I don't think I should be.


I'm picking Ammy with like 70% in my oracle. I'm a bit nervous about that, that might be way off - but you sure shouldn't be! Ammy is not going to lose to Animal Crossing on this site.
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#247 | LeonhartFour | Posted 11/10/2011 11:06:05 PM | message detail

From: creativename | #246
Someone would have to intentionally sabotage those teams for either pic to look bad.


Unfortunately, people like this exist!
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#248 | creativename | Posted 11/10/2011 11:07:13 PM | message detail

From: Greyfeld | #230
creativename posted...
There's like no way this is even possible.

Why not? This is a popularity contest. I'm sure there are plenty of people that think Tidus/Jecht are more of a rivalry than Auron/Jecht.


Just take my word for it: Auron/Jecht would NOT be weaker in this format than Tidus/Jecht. No way in hell.
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#249 | TheOneAboveAll | Posted 11/10/2011 11:13:22 PM | message detail
Is it weird that I always imagined KP as a girl? Probably because the initials "KP" conjure up old memories of Kim Possible.
#250 | ZenOfThunder | Posted 11/10/2011 11:13:51 PM | message detail
oh my god you ruined my mental image of KP and I know what he looks like (quite the handsome devil)

you've destroyed me
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