GameFAQs Contests

Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1014

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#201 | HaRRicH | Posted 11/9/2011 4:35:48 AM | message detail
For how new everything is this contest, I think I can forgive any missed expectation if the character in question's breaking a tripling this round. Samus/Ridley are currently (barely) breaking the quadrupling. Unless you know exactly where Kid/Guy are -- and we don't -- all this proves is that Samus/Ridley have some strength like we originally thought.
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#202 | pjbasis | Posted 11/9/2011 4:38:05 AM | message detail
It's pretty interesting that Round 1 is full of blow-outs.

This will probably translate into incredible later rounds.
#203 | LarryTheNo10Cat | Posted 11/9/2011 4:54:18 AM | message detail
Lol, I just logged on to see a new PM. It was a warning for me to update my battle thing (I did a bracket, didn't save so I just entered the battle).

I've got everything right so far which puts me among the top 480.

I picked all the rest without really thinking about it. The ones that can trip me up are:

Phoenix Wright+Edgey > Gordon Freeman+Dr Breen
Sora vs Riku - William BJ Blazcowizc vs Adolf Hitler
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#204 | cbaron0 | Posted 11/9/2011 5:17:34 AM | message detail
LarryTheNo10Cat posted...
Lol, I just logged on to see a new PM. It was a warning for me to update my battle thing (I did a bracket, didn't save so I just entered the battle).

I've got everything right so far which puts me among the top 480.

I picked all the rest without really thinking about it. The ones that can trip me up are:

Phoenix Wright+Edgey > Gordon Freeman+Dr Breen
Sora vs Riku - William BJ Blazcowizc vs Adolf Hitler


Same here. I'd also add Chell/GlaDOS vs Ness/Gigyas as another one I'm feeling nervous about.
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#205 | Wii_TuRtLe | Posted 11/9/2011 5:54:32 AM | message detail
My only concerns for the rest of the contest are Phoenix/Gordon, Alucard/Shepard, and the winner of their round 2 match.
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#206 | KamikazePotato | Posted 11/9/2011 6:03:41 AM | message detail
Actually, yeah, how does everyone feel about Chell/GlaDOS after seeing guys like Ezio perform?
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#207 | charmander6000 | Posted 11/9/2011 6:14:36 AM | message detail
I don't think they're related, Ness/Giygas is a terrible rivalry.

Though I must remind everyone that going by last year Ness would easily win over GlaDOS, so hopefully everyone feels that free Portal and Portal 2 will cover the gap.
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/Rivalry%20BOP.xls
Rivalry Rumble: 12/12 Today: Samus/Ridley & Terra/Kefka
#208 | __Smurf__ | Posted 11/9/2011 6:43:00 AM | message detail
I reckon one of Tidus,, Crash, Shepard, Ness or Nightmare will pull an upset. Contests always have one of those expected 60/40 games that just don't go as planned in round 1. If I was betting actual money I wouldn't put an accumulator on Big Boss + Pac-Man + Glados + Alucard + Ramza wins, far too many unreliable names there to guarantee that.
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#209 | th3l3fty | Posted 11/9/2011 6:47:59 AM | message detail
I thought Nightmare was the favorite >_>
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#210 | charmander6000 | Posted 11/9/2011 6:53:22 AM | message detail
Nightmare is the favourite.
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/Rivalry%20BOP.xls
Rivalry Rumble: 12/12 Today: Samus/Ridley & Terra/Kefka
#211 | charmander6000 | Posted 11/9/2011 6:54:23 AM | message detail
Match XIV: (4) Terra Branford/Kefka Palazzo vs. (5) Vyse/Glacian

Previous Contest

Terra Branford – 2010
53.87% against Darth Revan
35.48% against Squall Leonhart

Kefka Palazzo – 2010
60.57% against Arthas Menethil
38.32% against Bowser

Vyse – 2007
10.51% against Solid Snake, Nightmare and Rayman

Glacian – N/A
N/A

Analysis

The Final Fantasy VI duo was able to look impressive last contest with the help of Dissidia while Vyse returns after a few years of rest. Even if Dissidia never happened I feel that the Terra and Kefka of the past would still be able to handle Vyse and Glacian duo, due to the drop off the face of the Earth Vyse took over the past two contests.

There have been some people that argue that Terra and Kefka are a weak rivalry and that Vyse and Glacian may benefit from rivalry factor. While I feel that argument is debatable I think this match will display the limitations of rivalry factor. Even if voters feel that a rivalry is weak they are not going to vote for another pair if they have no idea on who the pair are. Skies of Arcadia as seen by Vyse in 2005 and 2007 has taken a turn for the worst, at one time he was considered to be the fodder line and in the last time we saw him he has dropped into low fodder zone. Like in all matches even if one pair is objectively the better rivalry they can’t win if no one knows who they are.

Even in the day I expect Terra and Kefka to crush badly and assuming their Dissidia boost is still present they should be well into the high 60s with a possibility of breaking 70%. A major reason Vyse and Glacian are even in this contest is from a rally on the board and like other games Skies of Arcadia does have a cult following.

charmander6000’s Bracket: Terra Branford/Kefka Palazzo > Vyse/Glacian

charmander6000’s Prediction: Terra Branford/Kefka Palazzo wins, 68.87% - 31.13%
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/Rivalry%20BOP.xls
Rivalry Rumble: 12/12 Today: Samus/Ridley & Terra/Kefka
#212 | UltimaterializerX | Posted 11/9/2011 7:03:09 AM | message detail
The picture Leon is talking about: http://img401.imageshack.us/img401/7056/vysegalcian2.png
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#213 | pjbasis | Posted 11/9/2011 7:39:11 AM | message detail
I don't know if he did it on purpose, but it's interesting how the first two divisions didn't really showcase the rivalry factor, and how Square's strongest teams won't be featured until after their weaker ones and all of Nintendo's powerhouses.

Makes for nice drama for the ones keeping track closely like us.
#214 | PartOfYourWorld | Posted 11/9/2011 8:14:48 AM | message detail
This ended up being a pretty decent performance from Samus. Kid/Guy did slightly better than Jim/Butt in the vote-ins, and I figured they'd be stronger (against a powerhouse) anyway with all the hilarious appeal they bring. Also, Samus really has nothing on them. Jim was a forgotten 90s platform mascot up against the king of all platforming mascots. Jim had no contrast with Mario. Kid/Guy obviously have a lot of contrast with Samus, and that helped them.
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#215 | __Smurf__ | Posted 11/9/2011 8:29:05 AM | message detail

From: charmander6000 | #210
Nightmare is the favourite.


hmm board 8 are picking some strange favourites between Phoenix and Nightmare. Could certainly see the logic in picking both, I just didn't expect the masses here would.
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#216 | Greyfeld | Posted 11/9/2011 8:48:54 AM | message detail
__Smurf__ posted...
From: charmander6000 | #210
Nightmare is the favourite.
hmm board 8 are picking some strange favourites between Phoenix and Nightmare. Could certainly see the logic in picking both, I just didn't expect the masses here would.


As far as the Phoenix match goes, it was already debatable before the contest started anyway. Freeman isn't that much stronger than Phoenix, according to last year's x-stats. Since the contest has started, the strong presence of the Rivalry Factor only clinches the match for Phoenix/Edgeworth, because they're fantastic rivals, while even fans of HL2 have admitted that Dr. Breen is in the "WHO CARES" territory.

Concerning the other match, nobody has faith in Ramza. I would rank him just over turbofodder. Nightmare has shown to be stronger, through Riku, and he's sitting on the tail end of a solid fighting-game rivalry.
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#217 | charmander6000 | Posted 11/9/2011 9:00:32 AM | message detail
Terra/Kefka off to a big start
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/Rivalry%20BOP.xls
Rivalry Rumble: 12/12 Today: Samus/Ridley & Terra/Kefka
#218 | GrapefruitKing | Posted 11/9/2011 9:00:40 AM | message detail
Ahem

There is FODDER ON MY BOOTS
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~ Rivalry Rumble Oracle Challenge ~ Rank - 25th
Today's Prediction: Samus / Ridley - 83.36%
#219 | MarquessLaus | Posted 11/9/2011 9:00:53 AM | message detail
Vote Accepted
Terra Branford vs. Kefka Palazzo 65.38% 17
Vyse vs. Galcian 34.62% 9
TOTAL VOTES 26
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#220 | pjbasis | Posted 11/9/2011 9:01:12 AM | message detail
80 percent lol
#221 | Kotetsu534 | Posted 11/9/2011 9:01:35 AM | message detail
LOL
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#222 | TheOneAboveAll | Posted 11/9/2011 9:01:44 AM | message detail
And someone here thought this would be debatable?
#223 | MoogleKupo141 | Posted 11/9/2011 9:01:45 AM | message detail
whaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaat
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#224 | FateStayAlbion | Posted 11/9/2011 9:02:16 AM | message detail
#225 | abdou | Posted 11/9/2011 9:02:24 AM | message detail
oh another 80-20 blowout
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....
#226 | IloveYoda | Posted 11/9/2011 9:02:26 AM | message detail
I believe Tanner may have met his match.
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#227 | MarquessLaus | Posted 11/9/2011 9:02:26 AM | message detail
Dat Duodecim Factor.
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#228 | charmander6000 | Posted 11/9/2011 9:02:33 AM | message detail
blowoutFAQs indeed.
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/Rivalry%20BOP.xls
Rivalry Rumble: 12/12 Today: Samus/Ridley & Terra/Kefka
#229 | pjbasis | Posted 11/9/2011 9:03:00 AM | message detail
B8 really loves FFVI
#230 | GrapefruitKing | Posted 11/9/2011 9:03:05 AM | message detail
Vyse vs. Galcian or Raynor vs. Kerrigan

who you got
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~ Rivalry Rumble Oracle Challenge ~ Rank - 25th
Today's Prediction: Samus / Ridley - 83.36%
#231 | pjbasis | Posted 11/9/2011 9:04:05 AM | message detail
En route for like 500 by the freeze
#232 | FateStayAlbion | Posted 11/9/2011 9:04:34 AM | message detail
#233 | Big Bob | Posted 11/9/2011 9:04:56 AM | message detail
Ironically, with Driver: San Francisco's recent release and actually being well-received, Tanner could conceivably beat Vyse.
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#234 | EmDubyaSee | Posted 11/9/2011 9:05:11 AM | message detail

From: FateStayAlbion | #232
At least this makes Arthas not look as bad last year




Wait till Link 90's him in the next week....
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From: Regaro_Ukiera |
MWC is god-tier
#235 | UltimaterializerX | Posted 11/9/2011 9:05:30 AM | message detail
This is SFF, relax. Tifa annihilated Vyse the same way one year and everyone went way overboard hyping her.
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#236 | TRE Public Account | Posted 11/9/2011 9:05:43 AM | message detail
Score-Brackets-% Right
12------1587------99.68
11------2893------98.06
10------3839------97.60
9--------3296------95.87
8--------2061------95.49
7--------1090------94.59
6--------473--------90.70
5--------175--------85.14
4--------58----------81.03
3--------24----------54.17
2--------16----------18.75
1--------15----------13.33
0--------25----------4.00

Really high prediction percentage this time but we still lose perfects and a 0 bracket. Each tier that had half or more of the matches right so far broke the 90 mark.

No one fell off the Top 50 this time.
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#237 | PartOfYourWorld | Posted 11/9/2011 9:06:00 AM | message detail
WHAT THE F***
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#238 | MarquessLaus | Posted 11/9/2011 9:06:28 AM | message detail
79.59% out of 441 at the freeze. And i here was gonna bring up how Celes might be a better rival for Kefka, to hell with that.
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#239 | pjbasis | Posted 11/9/2011 9:06:43 AM | message detail

From: UltimaterializerX | #235
This is SFF, relax. Tifa annihilated Vyse the same way one year and everyone went way overboard hyping her.


So Cloud is gonna get like 95 on Lloyd then?
#240 | charmander6000 | Posted 11/9/2011 9:07:05 AM | message detail
This is SFF, relax. Tifa annihilated Vyse the same way one year and everyone went way overboard hyping her.

Nah Vyse is just weak, this is what happens when number 1/2 beat on number 3/4
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/Rivalry%20BOP.xls
Rivalry Rumble: 12/12 Today: Samus/Ridley & Terra/Kefka
#241 | Oxbridge | Posted 11/9/2011 9:08:17 AM | message detail
pjbasis posted...
From: UltimaterializerX | #235
This is SFF, relax. Tifa annihilated Vyse the same way one year and everyone went way overboard hyping her.
So Cloud is gonna get like 95 on Lloyd then?


No, People have actually played ToS, maybe the protagonist from any other Tales game...
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#242 | izNotPerfect | Posted 11/9/2011 9:09:25 AM | message detail
lol BlowoutFAQs
Round 1 has been pretty dang boring so far.
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#243 | PartOfYourWorld | Posted 11/9/2011 9:09:25 AM | message detail
ToS has fans and is quasi-Nintendo. With the FFVII early vote, Cloud/Seph won't even match this percentage at the freeze.
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#244 | FateStayAlbion | Posted 11/9/2011 9:10:10 AM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
#245 | charmander6000 | Posted 11/9/2011 9:10:17 AM | message detail
dat board vote
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/Rivalry%20BOP.xls
Rivalry Rumble: 12/12 Today: Samus/Ridley & Terra/Kefka
#246 | Kibago | Posted 11/9/2011 9:10:19 AM | message detail
79.59% out of 441 at the freeze. And i here was gonna bring up how Celes might be a better rival for Kefka, to hell with that.

Celes would be a better rival for Terra too, i think, but it doesn't matter because Dissidia Terra/Kefka are easily the two strongest characters for the game. rivalry factor isn't making up that gap.

and <3 this freeze.
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#247 | MoogleKupo141 | Posted 11/9/2011 9:11:31 AM | message detail
ToS duo will be lucky to get 85%

yes, that would be pretty amazing
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#248 | Greyfeld | Posted 11/9/2011 9:11:34 AM | message detail
charmander6000 posted...
This is SFF, relax. Tifa annihilated Vyse the same way one year and everyone went way overboard hyping her.

Nah Vyse is just weak, this is what happens when number 1/2 beat on number 3/4


It's a combination of both., really. Terra and Kefka are like, 3rd-tier Square. But when you're facing turbofodder within the same genre, it's easy to look like near-elites.
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#249 | __Smurf__ | Posted 11/9/2011 9:12:56 AM | message detail
Given Vyses record of getting crushed by comparable margins between Cloud and Tifa its probable that he's likely to job heavily to any flavour of final fantasy. Wouldn't have any doubt this is SFF.
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#250 | wg64Z | Posted 11/9/2011 9:15:34 AM | message detail
Did anyone else just make a "gut reaction" bracket?

I never speculated, asked for opinions, or did anything like that. I just made my bracket in 5 minutes and was done with it.

Still perfect too!

What do people think about Red/Blue vs Ryu/Ken?