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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1014

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#151 | RottingToe | Posted 11/8/2011 9:22:43 PM | message detail
And I had Samus making it to semifinals...
Nice 79% you have there.
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#152 | Greyfeld | Posted 11/8/2011 9:25:03 PM | message detail
RottingToe posted...
And I had Samus making it to semifinals...
Nice 79% you have there.


When Ryu/Ken wins the division finals, I'll be able to breath easier. I already know they're gonig to beat Samus/Ridley.
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#153 | jacko_vdz | Posted 11/8/2011 9:25:34 PM | message detail
Kid/Guy have a great pic, which I don't think is doing Samus any favours
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#154 | Janus5000 | Posted 11/8/2011 9:28:13 PM | message detail
Welp, so much for my bracket. Red/Blue to the semis let's go
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#155 | TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 11/8/2011 9:28:50 PM | message detail
Ryu/Ken semi-finals? Its a dream come true
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#156 | TheCodeisBosco | Posted 11/8/2011 9:29:28 PM | message detail
I figured this was going to happen, once I saw how incredible The Kid/The Guy's picture is.

That having been said, I'm pretty stoked about having taken Ryu/Ken to the semis.
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#157 | LeonhartFour | Posted 11/8/2011 9:30:48 PM | message detail

From: Ngamer64 | #146
Sick drop from Samus that update.

BIG BOSS TO THE FINAL FOUR, HERE WE COME!


BIG BOSS TO THE ELITE EIGHT TO LOSE TO RYU/KEN HERE WE COME
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#158 | greatone10 | Posted 11/8/2011 9:31:13 PM | message detail
Gotta love having Samus losing to the Bosses right about now, and Ryu/Ken in the final four.
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#159 | LeonhartFour | Posted 11/8/2011 9:31:59 PM | message detail

From: greatone10 | #158
Gotta love having Samus losing to the Bosses right about now, and Ryu/Ken in the final four.


Heck yeah!
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#160 | TheCodeisBosco | Posted 11/8/2011 9:35:05 PM | message detail
We should probably wait and see the Bosses in action before worrying about Samus losing the division. It's certainly possible that the Bosses will win, but there's two things to remember: 1) almost all of the vote-in characters have looked like ass so far, and 2) MGS games did terrible in the GotD contest, and it's certainly possible that the series' characters have weakened as well.
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#161 | PartOfYourWorld | Posted 11/8/2011 9:36:42 PM | message detail
I suppose Bosses > Samus look a little better, but eeehhhh I don't even know about that. Let's wait for them to step up first.

Kid/Guy, with this picture and appeal, would have been hard for any team to crush. I'm not sure if Ryu/Ken could have managed 80% on them, and I already consider them (and the Trainers) favorites against Samus. Bosses have a bit going against them:

- One game rivalry (let's not bring PSP exclusives into this lol)
- Not iconic
- Not old (only one generation/seven years)
- Their one game isn't even guaranteed to be stronger than Super Metroid or Metroid Prime
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#162 | Greyfeld | Posted 11/8/2011 9:39:04 PM | message detail
TheCodeisBosco posted...
We should probably wait and see the Bosses in action before worrying about Samus losing the division. It's certainly possible that the Bosses will win, but there's two things to remember: 1) almost all of the vote-in characters have looked like ass so far, and 2) MGS games did terrible in the GotD contest, and it's certainly possible that the series' characters have weakened as well.

Big Boss put up a solid performance in last year's character battle.
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#163 | ZFS | Posted 11/8/2011 9:39:12 PM | message detail
No need! The Boss isn't in those PSP games!

Big Boss's main PSP game just got an HD port to the PS3/360 today, though.
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#164 | FateStayAlbion | Posted 11/8/2011 9:40:00 PM | message detail
If Boss beats Samus, then by using the vote ins, shouldn't Hitler have a shot at the KH duo?

I think we're overestimating the Bosses a bit here.
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#165 | creativename | Posted 11/8/2011 9:40:11 PM | message detail
Based on the vote-ins, if Samus ends up at 80% here that implies Mario vs. Bowser would get 62% on Samus vs. Ridley. And I think the vote-in is more likely to overrate The Kid vs. The Guy compared to Earthworm Jim than underrate them (though the standout factor of the pic does allow for them being stronger than the vote-in).

I don't want to overreact but this is pretty unimpressive by Samus.

From: TheCodeisBosco | #107
I really think The Kid and The Guy are going to avoid the quadrupling tonight. Their match pic is just bloody incredible.


But if people are voting against Samus/Ridley based on this kind of pic factor - for an entrant they've likely they've never even *heard* about - that hardly bodes well for any kind of real loyalty in Samus/Ridley. Previous noteworthy joke entrants have been from things where people actually got the joke.

I just feel like Samus/Ridley is a "strong by default" team that will not hold up to stiff competition.

From: FateStayAlbion | #126
Ratchet vs whatever tonights entrant is

Who you got?


I think both Ratchet and the Starcraft team would beat this team, which supports my notion that the Trainers and the SF duo might both be stronger than Metroid.

From: FateStayAlbion | #137
Link is in trouble if not even a Nintendo icon can get 80% in this match.


This match says nothing about Link. I do think Link is in real danger but what does this match have to do with it?

From: GrapefruitKing | #142
When Link/GDorf get 90% on their first match we'll all shut up


Exactly - which would be foolish, and I've already predicted exactly this to happen. I think once Link pushes for blowout of the contest against Arthas/what, the Link is in trouble stuff will stop. Then the later rounds will hit and people will go "...ruh-roh".

Link/Ganon will obliterate Arthas/who completely and utterly. He's still at significant danger of losing this contest.
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#166 | ZFS | Posted 11/8/2011 9:40:44 PM | message detail
Also Ryu got this!
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#167 | creativename | Posted 11/8/2011 9:42:01 PM | message detail
Think the Bosses are way more in danger of losing to FFX than they are a threat to Samus, myself.
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#168 | Greyfeld | Posted 11/8/2011 9:42:32 PM | message detail
FateStayAlbion posted...
If Boss beats Samus, then by using the vote ins, shouldn't Hitler have a shot at the KH duo?

I think we're overestimating the Bosses a bit here.


For all we know, Sora/Riku could be stronger than Samus/Ridley. There's just not enough information to make any informed decisions yet.
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#169 | LeonhartFour | Posted 11/8/2011 9:44:10 PM | message detail

From: FateStayAlbion | #164
shouldn't Hitler have a shot at the KH duo?


Considering Hitler's overrated due to 4chan rallying?

No.

Plus, the vote-ins aren't a 100% accurate gauge anyway. Missingno didn't look like a Crono beater just looking at the vote-ins.
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#170 | greatone10 | Posted 11/8/2011 9:44:31 PM | message detail
I would think Hitler would benefit from the multiple entrant format that the vote ins produce.

We really don't know how many people are really going to be willing to vote for one of the worst people in history.
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#171 | red sox 777 | Posted 11/8/2011 9:46:18 PM | message detail
Plus, the vote-ins aren't a 100% accurate gauge anyway. Missingno didn't look like a Crono beater just looking at the vote-ins.

They called that one, actually. IIRC, Missingno did about as well on Lightning as Sonic did, except that Missingno had 2 other Pokemon in the vote-in LFFing him.
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#172 | LeonhartFour | Posted 11/8/2011 9:47:19 PM | message detail
Axel made Dante look Noble Nine level based off of the vote-ins, too, if I recall.
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#173 | KamikazePotato | Posted 11/8/2011 9:50:08 PM | message detail
People really like my pic!

Also, I Wanna Be The Guy really isn't *that* obscure. It's gotten a decent amount of notoriety for what it is and it's on youtube *everywhere*. Plus the name is just funny. Still a bad result from Samus, but yeah.
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#174 | creativename | Posted 11/8/2011 9:51:16 PM | message detail

From: LeonhartFour | #169Missingno didn't look like a Crono beater just looking at the vote-ins.


http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3691

Actually Missingno broke 62% on Lightning (comparable to Sonic) and 63% on Scorpion, which is damn good and in the ballpark of what Crono might get. Pure vote-in wise Missingno actually did look like a threat to Crono.

I think many of us dismissed that as Missingno as having more hardcore appeal and the vote-ins not being linear. But the vote-ins actually did predict Crono-beater potential for Missingno.

Also Crono probably wins a 24 hour match >_> My god Crono has a worse history of getting screwed in these contests than anyone. It's become such a theme I can't even get worked up over it any more, it's just expected.
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#175 | nintendogirl1 (Moderator) | Posted 11/8/2011 9:51:20 PM | message detail
Yeah, we were definitely laughing at the idea of Missingno. beating Crono. No-one thought it would actually happen, but it was definitely mooted as "lol, wouldn't it be funny if..."
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#176 | red sox 777 | Posted 11/8/2011 9:51:59 PM | message detail
Axel made Dante look Noble Nine level based off of the vote-ins, too, if I recall.

Axel made Dante look NN level because he plummeted between when he faced Megaman and Samus back in 2006/2007 to when he faced Dante in 2010.
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#177 | KamikazePotato | Posted 11/8/2011 9:53:13 PM | message detail
Missingno didn't look like a worldbeater in that poll because none of us thought that Lightning would be that great at the time. In retrospect, after seeing her result against Sonic, we probably should've been careful, but yeah.
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#178 | creativename | Posted 11/8/2011 9:53:54 PM | message detail

From: red sox 777 | #171
Plus, the vote-ins aren't a 100% accurate gauge anyway. Missingno didn't look like a Crono beater just looking at the vote-ins.

They called that one, actually. IIRC, Missingno did about as well on Lightning as Sonic did, except that Missingno had 2 other Pokemon in the vote-in LFFing him.


Ah yes, forget about the LFF arguments. People were using those back then to argue for Missingo>Crono as well.

Based purely on the vote-in Missingno would logically have been favored over Crono because that was a *stacked* vote-in, and not one in Missingno's favor given the LFF, yet it still did great. But it was hard to foresee the vote-in being so linear.
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#179 | red sox 777 | Posted 11/8/2011 9:55:03 PM | message detail
Funny? Small chances of catastrophic losses and large chances of marginal wins are not funny. They fill you with constant dread. Much better to put Crono up against Clinkeroth to give him tiny chances of incredible victory and overwhelming chances of respectable defeat.
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#180 | LeonhartFour | Posted 11/8/2011 9:55:07 PM | message detail

From: red sox 777 | #176
Axel made Dante look Noble Nine level based off of the vote-ins, too, if I recall.

Axel made Dante look NN level because he plummeted between when he faced Megaman and Samus back in 2006/2007 to when he faced Dante in 2010.


Vote-ins compared to what other characters in the same vote-in did made Dante look Noble Nine level, not the 2007 X-Stats.
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#181 | GrapefruitKing | Posted 11/8/2011 9:56:11 PM | message detail
Samus getting 80% instead of 83% on Kid/Guy really doesn't mean much for her match against the Bosses
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#182 | creativename | Posted 11/8/2011 9:57:50 PM | message detail

From: KamikazePotato | #177
Missingno didn't look like a worldbeater in that poll because none of us thought that Lightning would be that great at the time. In retrospect, after seeing her result against Sonic, we probably should've been careful, but yeah.


But Scorpion was also there and Scorpion has always been strong. Plus there was lots of PokeLFF.

I would have bought the "Missingno is only doing well because of hardcores, he won't translate to higher vote totals" logic well above Missingno's vote-in opponents being questionable. That was one seriously loaded vote-in.
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#183 | red sox 777 | Posted 11/8/2011 9:58:49 PM | message detail
Didn't Dante equal Megaman's direct performance on Axel in 2006?

The LFF in the vote-in made up for the gap between Crono and Sonic, since equalling Sonic wouldn't be enough to put Missingno on Crono's level. But yeah, it was surprising that the vote-in was so accurate with a joke. Granted, it took Missingno a lot of rallying and a day match to beat Crono in the real thing, but that's still pretty amazing that the vote-in got that close.
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#184 | LeonhartFour | Posted 11/8/2011 10:02:06 PM | message detail

From: red sox 777 | #183
Didn't Dante equal Megaman's direct performance on Axel in 2006?


He did, but that's still irrelevant because it's just based off of the vote-ins.
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#185 | creativename | Posted 11/8/2011 10:03:00 PM | message detail

From: red sox 777 | #179
Funny? Small chances of catastrophic losses and large chances of marginal wins are not funny. They fill you with constant dread. Much better to put Crono up against Clinkeroth to give him tiny chances of incredible victory and overwhelming chances of respectable defeat.


Nothing funny about Crono's history in these contests. It's a Homeric tragedy.

Now Magus - he's funny. LOLSandbag.

From: red sox 777 | #183Granted, it took Missingno a lot of rallying and a day match to beat Crono in the real thing, but that's still pretty amazing that the vote-in got that close.


Yeah, I don't trust vote-ins too heavily and they can be off by a lot, but more often than not they amaze me with how linear they are.
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#186 | red sox 777 | Posted 11/8/2011 10:10:56 PM | message detail
He did, but that's still irrelevant because it's just based off of the vote-ins.

Huh? Both Megaman and Dante faced Axel in real contest matches. What do the vote-ins have to do with it?
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#187 | LeonhartFour | Posted 11/8/2011 10:14:16 PM | message detail

From: red sox 777 | #186
He did, but that's still irrelevant because it's just based off of the vote-ins.

Huh? Both Megaman and Dante faced Axel in real contest matches. What do the vote-ins have to do with it?


I'm talking about how the vote-ins didn't exactly predict the contests perfectly, even with Missingno.

Compare what the other characters in Axel's vote-ins did and then extrapolate Dante from all of that, and he and Ryu end up wayyyyyy up there.

That's what this discussion was all about to begin with. This has nothing to do with how strong Axel was to begin with.
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#188 | Azp2k32 | Posted 11/8/2011 10:14:57 PM | message detail
Tbh.... Samus/Ridley have a pretty damn awful picture. That color scheme is bad for them. Nothing stands out in the picture. If Samus/Ridley got this picture in quarters they'd be going out a round early. Samus needs a Varia suit pic for maximum recognition and Ridley needs either a tasteful shot of him in purple or something like Meta-Ridley.

Or, you know, something like this:
http://img232.imageshack.us/img232/1513/toobig.png
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#189 | creativename | Posted 11/8/2011 10:20:19 PM | message detail
Leonhart, can you give some numerical examples of what you are referring to? I am having some difficulty following your logic.

Just to note, if Metroid gets 81% here then would be predicted to get exactly 60/40'd by Mario vs. Bowser based solely on the vote-ins.
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#190 | LeonhartFour | Posted 11/8/2011 10:22:16 PM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3691

It's not that hard to figure out what 70% on Axel extrapolated from this vote-in would cause.
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#191 | creativename | Posted 11/8/2011 10:47:14 PM | message detail
Apparently Dante gets metrosexual SFF on Axel.
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#192 | Kotetsu534 | Posted 11/8/2011 11:22:36 PM | message detail
People are underrating Kid/Guy. He didn't make fourth in the vote-in through joke votes. The names are not that funny. They're about as strong as Jim/Queen and Laharl/Mid-Boss, which says little about anyone. I still feel bad about Samus/Ridley > Ryu/Ken, but not because of this match.
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#193 | AlecTrevelyan006 | Posted 11/9/2011 12:33:57 AM | message detail
You can tell how compelling this contest is by the rate we're going through stats topics.
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#194 | Ultimaphazon | Posted 11/9/2011 3:03:50 AM | message detail
Being about as strong as Jim/Queen is not a good thing. Jim Queen got slaughtered 85-15, and I would have expected Samus/Ridley to perform a similar, if not quite as impressive, slaughter today. to stay in contention with the trainers or Ryu/Ken. 80% just doesn't cut it.

Kid/Guy or Ratchet/Nefarious? Who you got?

Spoilers: There is only one correct answer.
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#195 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 11/9/2011 3:23:24 AM | message detail
Kid/Guy because LOL platformer characters on this site.

Also Samus may be underperforming because she has her Dark Suit, which is exclusive to what's widely regarded as one of the worse Metroid games, on, and last time Samus had anything but her Varia Suit on in a character contest match pic, she almost lost to Tifa.

Heck, at least the Zero Suit may have TJF going on! Dark Suit Samus...is probably a pretty big departure from normal. Not that I think this matters much, but still. Just imagine if Light Suit Samus ever showed up in a match pic.

I picked Samus/Ridley to the semifinals just because I picked Half-Life 2 > Metroid Prime last year, so I didn't want to underestimate the series again - everything Metroid-related has impressed in the last two contests. Plus I remembered that Samus/Ridley is actually a pretty good rivalry - probably akin to something like Sonic/Robotnik (and strengthened by Ridley actually having a "connection" to Samus) in that the villain actually appears prominently in the series, but he's NEVER the final boss (which means that he can't be someone like Lavos or Ganondorf who is little more than the final boss in most games they appear in). Ridley is probably more prominent in Super Metroid than Ganondorf is in any Zelda game.

Most of the reason why I regret my "Samus to the semifinal" pick is because I thought fighting game rivalries wouldn't amount to much - but clearly I underestimated "nostalgia" and all...wait, may I have some words on why this "Ryu vs. Ken" business is perceived as a great rivalry? To be fair, however, like I've been saying everywhere, I haven't played a non-SSB fighting game in over six years, and I have never played any Street Fighter or Mortal Kombat.

Also I think we can say with confidence that the strongest Metroid game would slaughter the strongest Street Fighter game...but then we're probably even more confident that Resident Evil 4 would trash the strongest Mortal Kombat and look what happened there.

Random Trivia that No One Cares About: Samus is in The Kid's game.
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#196 | transcience | Posted 11/9/2011 3:25:56 AM | message detail
you guys are just looking for a reason to bury Samus. you've been doing it since before the match and you're doing it now. 80% or 85% on The Guy -- does anyone really think it matters? Samus could have 90% here and it wouldn't change anything. it's The Guy.

need some round 2 before saying anything about Samus here.
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#197 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 11/9/2011 3:48:59 AM | message detail
More or less. Given how feeble UYA turned out to be in the last games contest, Kid/Guy > Ratchet/Nefarious is still a possibility.

Also don't most R&C fans care more for a Ratchet/Captain Qwark rivalry than for a Ratchet/Dr. Nefarious one?
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#198 | jacko_vdz | Posted 11/9/2011 3:49:13 AM | message detail
Come on Samus, bring it back to 81% for my oracle pick!
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#199 | __Smurf__ | Posted 11/9/2011 4:30:00 AM | message detail
People are seriously trying to use margins on turbo fodder to calculate a victor? A result thats ~75% or over is probably best left as a 70%+ victory, if you're going to get into margins beyond that to try and prove something you're getting into real murky territory. I'd have said if Samus got 75%, 85% or 95% we'd have learned nothing more or less about her strength, especially considering its an unknown opponent.
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#200 | Safer Sephiroth 777 | Posted 11/9/2011 4:30:54 AM | message detail
Out of all matches so far,the lowest percentage is 60%.So no upset so far.Let us see which match will be the first upset.
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