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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1013

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#401 | TheCodeisBosco | Posted 11/7/2011 10:15:32 PM | message detail
I'm not sure why people are so down on the idea of Crash > Pac-Man. I don't think the two are that far apart in terms of strength to begin with - Crash really didn't do all that bad in the last CB, while Pac didn't even make it in the bracket - and Crash/Cortex should benefit much more from the Rivalry Rumble format.

I mean, if people thought Luigi/Waluigi was lame, surely Pac-Man and a single ghost will come across poorly as well; I'm a huge Pac-Man fan, and even I think it's a lame rivalry to include. On the flip side, I think Cortex is awesome, and his presence can only boost Crash.
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#402 | LeonhartFour | Posted 11/7/2011 10:16:37 PM | message detail

From: TheCodeisBosco | #401
I'm not sure why people are so down on the idea of Crash > Pac-Man. I don't think the two are that far apart in terms of strength to begin with


They aren't.

But I think you're off base about Crash benefiting more from the format than Pac-Man/Ghost, and that's why he'll lose.
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#403 | red sox 777 | Posted 11/7/2011 10:18:09 PM | message detail
But that's not what it means at all.

Because there are characters who are better at night and characters who are better during the day. When you put those two things together, the character who is good at night and bad during the day will drop quite a bit during the day and vice-versa for the character who is bad during the night and good during the day. When you have no disparity, then you have diluted trends.


What he's saying is exactly right with regards to what kind of match favors what kind of character. Which is what he was talking about. You're talking about what produces large swings here, but large swings have zero impact on the final result.
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#404 | ZFS | Posted 11/7/2011 10:18:28 PM | message detail
I've got Crash over Pac-Man, too. I don't feel confident in it, but Crash was my first instinct when I saw the match.
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#405 | Greyfeld | Posted 11/7/2011 10:19:49 PM | message detail
Pac-man is recognizable, no matter what generation of gamer you are. Personally, I've never even played a Crash game.

Unfortunately, I don't see any 1v1 battles to compare pac-man's strength to Crash's in, but having Blinky as his "rival" should bring in the massive joke votes, if not legitimate rivalry votes.
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#406 | LeonhartFour | Posted 11/7/2011 10:20:27 PM | message detail

From: red sox 777 | #403
What he's saying is exactly right with regards to what kind of match favors what kind of character. Which is what he was talking about. You're talking about what produces large swings here, but large swings have zero impact on the final result.


But he's wrong about the ASV not mattering in a 24-hour match. That's the issue here. Which kind of match favors which kind of character is a no-brainer.
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#407 | paulg235 | Posted 11/7/2011 10:20:35 PM | message detail
I initally went with Crash until I seriously thought about the second character. Cortex is an unknown and likely won't be bringing that many more votes that Crash would've already, and Blinky can be seen as some sort of joke character.
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#408 | creativename | Posted 11/7/2011 10:21:24 PM | message detail

From: PartOfYourWorld | #385It's a free independent game developed by one guy, I believe. It's known largely for its incredible difficulty.


Thanks. So how did they actually make it? Some sort of board rally?

From: Xuxon | #387
I think I'd like to have Dante over Sora. And maybe Kirby over Sonic, but I love Robotnik too much to pick that anyway. Otherwise I'm good with my completely cookie other than Street Fighter > Samus and FF7 > Link.


Dante/Sora is an interesting one. I have Sora there but I have little confidence. But, I wouldn't have any confidence in Dante either. So I'd have no incentive to change my half-hearted Sora pick.

From: Greyfeld | #394Uh... what?

That... I'm sorry, but you're going to have to break that down further, because none of that makes any sense to me.


I think the difference is the context of how much it influences the match result, vs. how much it affects trends. He's talking about trends, you're talking about importance for match result.

From: LeonhartFour | #396
How many posts do you need to see that say they're from "I Wanna Be The Guy?"


Wow. I had no idea those posts were actually saying the name of the game. I thought they were just making a joke saying they'd like to be called The Guy. That it was the name of the game wouldn't have occurred to me like, ever.

From: TheCodeisBosco | #401and Crash/Cortex should benefit much more from the Rivalry Rumble format.


Nobody knows who Cortex is and people will vote for Pac-Man/Ghost. I'd be damn surprised if that match is close.
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#409 | LeonhartFour | Posted 11/7/2011 10:22:26 PM | message detail
I've never even played a Crash Bandicoot game and I know who Neo Cortex is!
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#410 | red sox 777 | Posted 11/7/2011 10:23:31 PM | message detail
But he's wrong about the ASV not mattering in a 24-hour match. That's the issue here. Which kind of match favors which kind of character is a no-brainer.

That's precisely what he means by saying the ASV doesn't matter in a 24-hour match. No trends matter in a 24-hour match, because they don't impact strength, which is what decides 24-hour matches. All the time periods cancel each other out.

His post was initially in response to a claim that Ryu or Red would win because of the California ASV. But that does not matter one iota in a 24-hour match, from where we are now (before the start of the match).
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#411 | ZFS | Posted 11/7/2011 10:24:36 PM | message detail
All of the Crash games are free on PSN if you have PS+!
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#412 | Greyfeld | Posted 11/7/2011 10:25:17 PM | message detail
Who thinks Pac-man couldn't make 39% on Ryu Hayabusa?
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#413 | LeonhartFour | Posted 11/7/2011 10:26:13 PM | message detail
They matter in the sense that the match would go differently if the ASV did not exist the way it did. Trends explain the match rather than define it, but who gets what part of the match is a part of a character's innate strength, and so the things like who wins the ASV do matter.
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#414 | TheCodeisBosco | Posted 11/7/2011 10:29:30 PM | message detail
LeonhartFour posted...
From: TheCodeisBosco | #401
I'm not sure why people are so down on the idea of Crash > Pac-Man. I don't think the two are that far apart in terms of strength to begin with
They aren't.

But I think you're off base about Crash benefiting more from the format than Pac-Man/Ghost, and that's why he'll lose.


It's certainly possible that Blinky won't be an anchor after all, but I can't see a single ghost actually helping Pac-Man. Cortex, on the other hand, has virtually no chance of actually dragging Crash down... and since he was a really funny villain, I could see him actually helping Crash some. Also, for what it's worth, his design is great.

As for Blinky being a joke character? I'm doubtful that people will see any humor in it, personally. If Waluigi couldn't attract any joke votes, I can't imagine Blinky will. Also, those of you who haven't played any Crash games need to fix that!
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#415 | IngmarBirdman | Posted 11/7/2011 10:33:25 PM | message detail
If Waluigi couldn't attract any joke votes

Based on the posts by randoms, apparently casuals just hate Waluigi. Was surprised to hear that actually!
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#416 | Greyfeld | Posted 11/7/2011 10:37:14 PM | message detail
Ignoring Bosco, because he has no idea what he's talking about...

When I saw Blinky paired up with Pac-man, it made me LOL.
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#417 | TheCodeisBosco | Posted 11/7/2011 10:41:50 PM | message detail
Seeing Conker and Sloprano in the bracket made me laugh. Seeing The Kid and The Guy in the bracket made me laugh. And seeing BJ/Hitler and Tom Nook/Crazy Redd in the bracket made me laugh, and then cry tears of joy after.

But Pac/Blinky? I saw that, and thought: "Jesus, what a waste of a bracket slot."
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#418 | MarioSuperstar | Posted 11/7/2011 10:46:43 PM | message detail | (edited)
I took Pac-Man simply because of the never-ending platforming character failures. Pac-man's resume is just more impressive and his history is far richer.

Crash/Cortex strikes me as.. oh, look at Ratchet tonight.
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#419 | RPGLord95 | Posted 11/7/2011 10:48:20 PM | message detail
Pac-Man wins that match no problem. 60-40 at least.
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#420 | izNotPerfect | Posted 11/7/2011 10:50:11 PM | message detail

From: RPGLord95 | #419
Pac-Man wins that match no problem. 60-40 at least.


I wouldn't go that far, now...
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#421 | TheCodeisBosco | Posted 11/7/2011 10:50:46 PM | message detail
MarioSuperstar posted...
Crash/Cortex strikes me as.. oh, look at Ratchet tonight.

Haha! This is probably the best argument for Pac/Ghost so far. Very good point.

Still though, I might as well keep the faith. If Crash/Cortex lose, at least I can take solace in the fact that I chose an awesome rivalry over a groan-inducing one. (And I can also take solace in the fact that Cortex made a bracket! Woohoo!)
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#422 | LeonhartFour | Posted 11/7/2011 10:57:41 PM | message detail
Let's not act like Ryu/Ken wouldn't slaughter Pac-Man/Blinky, too.
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#423 | Kotetsu534 | Posted 11/7/2011 11:37:56 PM | message detail
Pac-Man sucks and Ryu Hayabusa would dismiss him with ease. Pac-Man/Blinky might well win, but people have been acting like its going to be a blowout. Can't see it.
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#424 | Greyfeld | Posted 11/7/2011 11:46:00 PM | message detail
Kotetsu534 posted...
Pac-Man sucks and Ryu Hayabusa would dismiss him with ease. Pac-Man/Blinky might well win, but people have been acting like its going to be a blowout. Can't see it.

I didn't ask if he could beat Ryu Hayabusa, I asked if he could get 39%.
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#425 | Kotetsu534 | Posted 11/7/2011 11:56:05 PM | message detail
Doesn't really matter. As we've seen, voter perception of rivals is going to play a huge part. I'm liking Cortex's value there. (Also, night match helps Crash here big time.)
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#426 | YoboD | Posted 11/7/2011 11:56:35 PM | message detail
Yeah, I picked Crash against Pac-Man because Crash/Cortex is actually a good rivalry.
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#427 | junk_funk | Posted 11/7/2011 11:59:47 PM | message detail
RPGLord95 posted...
Pac-Man wins that match no problem. 60-40 at least.

Yes.
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#428 | JJH777 | Posted 11/8/2011 12:16:13 AM | message detail
Ryu/Ken have been at exactly 82-18 4 updates in a row
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#429 | Greyfeld | Posted 11/8/2011 12:25:44 AM | message detail
Kotetsu534 posted...
Doesn't really matter. As we've seen, voter perception of rivals is going to play a huge part. I'm liking Cortex's value there. (Also, night match helps Crash here big time.)

Of course it matters. "Rivalry factor" doesn't eliminate the strength of individual characters. You have to be able to pinpoint the base strength of a character before you can take rivalries into account.
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#430 | transience | Posted 11/8/2011 2:58:28 AM | message detail
I'd say the Trainers/Fighters are a push right now. both with good performances, doing what they need to do. nothing outrageous.

it's really too bad that the Trainers get the Luigis because there could be some awkwardness there. we won't have a good picture of what's going to happen.
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#431 | Safer Sephiroth 777 | Posted 11/8/2011 3:33:09 AM | message detail
I just woke up and came to see the results thinking the fighters would have around 70%.When I saw they had more than 82%...Man rivalries really matter it seems.
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#432 | pjbasis | Posted 11/8/2011 3:47:11 AM | message detail
If there's RPG SFF, Cloud/Seph might get close to 90 percent on the Tales guys.
#433 | MarioSuperstar | Posted 11/8/2011 4:41:29 AM | message detail

From: YoboD | #426
Yeah, I picked Crash against Pac-Man because Crash/Cortex is actually a good rivalry.


It is? It's just the typical hero/villain thing. The only thing I could possibly see going for it is "iconicness" but it's not "iconic" in the sense of Mario/Bowser since Crash is the SOLE icon.
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#434 | Wii_TuRtLe | Posted 11/8/2011 5:07:18 AM | message detail
pjbasis posted...
If there's RPG SFF, Cloud/Seph might get close to 90 percent on the Tales guys.

Was just thinking about this the other day. Maybe not 90%, but that match could be ugly.

Remind me again why we keep nomming these guys?
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#435 | __Smurf__ | Posted 11/8/2011 5:22:07 AM | message detail
I think the point is that Cortex is more iconic and valid than multi-coloured layerless "enemy" symbols that are the ghosts. He has a background, ideals and motivation. There's "something" going on in the rivalry at least.
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#436 | GranzonEx | Posted 11/8/2011 5:28:58 AM | message detail
Good showing so far. Can't say I'm surprised though.
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#437 | MarquessLaus | Posted 11/8/2011 5:40:02 AM | message detail
Crash and Vortex had a whole game where they were forced to team up and by team up I mean Crash used Vortex's body to smite their enemies much to Vortex' annoyance. It is more then the typical hero-villain deal.
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#438 | charmander6000 | Posted 11/8/2011 6:58:40 AM | message detail
Match XII: (2) Fox McCloud/Wolf O’Donnell vs. (7) Yuna/Seymour Guado

Previous Contest

Fox McCloud – 2010
67.25% against Lloyd Irving
32.97% against Solid Snake

Wolf O’Donnell – N/A
N/A

Yuna – 2010
41.39% against Zack Fair

Seymour Guado – N/A
N/A

Analysis

The inclusion of Wolf brings down the total of eligible Smash characters that have never made a contest to eight. This match had some debate in the early days, but recent events have made almost everyone side with Fox and Wolf. While Fox and Wolf have a decent rivalry most people consider Yuna and Seymour to have a nonexistent one.

There was some debate about which character is the strongest in the group, but after some number crunching I would probably take Fox over Yuna in a close match. Through Zack Yuna is expected to get about 32% on Mega Man which is slightly less than what Fox got on Solid Snake. Sure you can argue that Yuna suffered some SFF against Zack, but at the same time Solid Snake is stronger than Mega Man. Between Wolf and Seymour I would probably go with Wolf, but at the same time I wouldn’t be surprised if Seymour won that match.

The board feels that Yuna and Seymour are a bad rivalry and the vote-ins seem to support that. Yuna and Seymour lost to Banjo and Gruntilda in the vote-ins and while Yuna and Seymour had to compete with other RPG pairings Banjo and Gruntilda were the closest thing to being the Nintendo option. While I would probably take Yuna and Seymour in a rematch in this format it was still a terrible performance. Fox and Wolf on the other hand do have a rivalry, but considering that they get a large portion of their strength from the Smash series it may not be as strong. While it may not matter in this match it’ll probably matter next round.

Fox and Wolf should win without too much trouble, but at the same time I don’t see them getting the blowouts that we’ve been getting over the past few days. Breaking 60% is possible, but I don’t find it to be that likely.

charmander6000’s Bracket: Fox McCloud/Wolf O’Donnell > Yuna/Seymour Guado

charmander6000’s Prediction: Fox McCloud/Wolf O’Donnell wins, 58.25% - 41.75%
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/Rivalry%20BOP.xls
Rivalry Rumble: 10/10 Today: Ryu/Ken & Fox/Wolf
#439 | UltimaterializerX | Posted 11/8/2011 7:01:29 AM | message detail
Ratchet's team would wreck the Starcraft duo. Goodbye, trainers.
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#440 | General_Zimbad | Posted 11/8/2011 7:05:20 AM | message detail
Just checked randomly, Wyoming has a 60-40 for this match. Kinda funny.
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#441 | transcience | Posted 11/8/2011 7:14:26 AM | message detail
not even the morning can slow SF down. nice show.

you know, I'm starting to get a little worried about Sonic. I didn't think too much of it at the time, but since their match X, Sub, Red/Blue and Ryu/Ken have looked better than it. maybe the Catherines are better than we think? (probably not.)

I know, it's the picture! yeah, you kind of have to stretch the truth to excuse a mediocre performance when everyone else has looked so good. maybe there was a general RE collapse that will explain Sub's dominant performance and save Sonic vs. Kirby. who knows. I think we have a great debate for #4 rivalry right now and Sonic does not seem to be in the conversation.
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#442 | ExThaNemesis | Posted 11/8/2011 7:14:43 AM | message detail

From: pjbasis | #432
If there's RPG SFF, Cloud/Seph might get close to 90 percent on the Tales guys.


That would be so sexy.
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#443 | ExThaNemesis | Posted 11/8/2011 7:15:36 AM | message detail

From: UltimaterializerX | #439
Ratchet's team would wreck the Starcraft duo. Goodbye, trainers.


Didn't you think the Luigis would beat the Trainers? Heh.
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#444 | GrapefruitKing | Posted 11/8/2011 7:45:49 AM | message detail
What we thought before the actual matches happened is kind of irrelevant right now
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#445 | TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 11/8/2011 7:46:18 AM | message detail

From: MarioSuperstar | #433
It's just the typical hero/villain thing.


Somebody hasn't played Crash Twinsanity!
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#446 | charmander6000 | Posted 11/8/2011 7:48:03 AM | message detail
I don't think Sonic was ever in the conversation for number 4, heck precontest he was probably near the bottom of anyone's top 10 list. Except for Crono/Lavos I would take every other noble nine pairing over Sonic/Robotnik.

As for next round I have Kirby/Meta Knight winning and I feel the match will be pretty close regardless of the winner.
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/Rivalry%20BOP.xls
Rivalry Rumble: 10/10 Today: Ryu/Ken & Fox/Wolf
#447 | TheOneAboveAll | Posted 11/8/2011 8:46:20 AM | message detail
Is this match going to be our lowest votals ever?
#448 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 11/8/2011 8:54:59 AM | message detail
Nah, it will just barely beat out the X/Zero match.
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#449 | abdou | Posted 11/8/2011 8:58:20 AM | message detail
I wish Yuna had a better rival.
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#450 | Master Moltar | Posted 11/8/2011 9:00:10 AM | message detail
Fox McCloud vs. Wolf O'Donnell 100%

8
Yuna vs. Seymour Guado 0%

0
TOTAL VOTES 8
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Moltar Status: http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/60859552
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