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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1013

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#351 | izNotPerfect | Posted 11/7/2011 9:31:13 PM | message detail

From: TheCodeisBosco | #347
I thought I had Samus/Ridley getting there, but I just double-checked my bracket, and I actually have Ryu/Ken making it instead.

That should be such a dumb pick. It really should be. And yet... it might just be the saving grace of my bracket.


It just might, but I'm still taking the Trainers over them for the time being.

Here's hoping Samus will pull 90% on Kid/Guy
LOL XD jk....
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#352 | red sox 777 | Posted 11/7/2011 9:31:40 PM | message detail
In that case Ryu is doomed, because Pokemon would crush SF2 with the ASV anywhere, even California. I think what you're looking for is the SNV (heavily fueled by CA).
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#353 | creativename | Posted 11/7/2011 9:32:37 PM | message detail

From: Team Rocket Elite | #29555.41% support for Phoenix/Edgeworth over Freeman/Breen isn't exactly overwhelming. It's probably low since it looks like Phoenix is going to beat on Freeman pretty badly.


Yeah I was kinda surprised that match was so debated. I took Phoenix without any internal debate, and never really thought to change it after I found the match was debated. Just didn't seem like Gordon vs. Who could compete with the popular Phoenix vs. Edgey rivalry.

I mean I've never spent one second playing a PW game and even I'm very familiar with that rivalry.

Also Fox/Wolf are going to smash Yuna and Pac-Man/Ghost will trounce Crash/Who. Was very surprised to see people debating the Pac-Man/Crash match - the Crash rivalry will be complete fodder, Pac-Man/Ghost might not be strong but it won't be a joke.

And despite my FFT fanboyism I'm kinda confident in Siegfried/Nightmare - though that one isn't a lock. But, I see Nightmare being too strong, and I think more people know who Siegfried is than Delita. It's also a fighting game rivalry which as I've said, I believe are probably going to have the largest rivalry boost.

The one first round match that makes me wonder is the Bosses against FFX. The Bosses deserve to be favored (hard to trust Tidus, ever), but Tidus/Jecht is a legit competitor. And I think being paired with Jecht makes Tidus more likable. Tough draw for the FFX team though.

From: FateStayAlbion | #297
Too bad this wasn't a night match... since 11 PM, Luigi has gained a total of 1 vote over Cecil. Doubt Cecil woulda won, but it would have been significantly closer.


Cecil/Kain would have won IMO. I estimated before this match that Cecil/Kain would do at least 5 points better. So I think Cecil/Kain would have won a 24 hour match, probably even a day match. Cecil/Kain would be much stronger.

Love Golbez, but it should have been Kain here. Pretty surprising that Golbez made it instead.

From: ExThaNemesis | #326
Honestly looking at this right now I'd call the Fighters the favorite. Not really based off anything other than my gut. This is a damn legit performance though.


Means very little honestly. Just means Ratchet's team sucks ass.

I'm quite confident in Ken/Ryu still but them doing well here really says nothing other than they didn't flop.
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#354 | LeonhartFour | Posted 11/7/2011 9:34:16 PM | message detail

From: red sox 777 | #352
In that case Ryu is doomed, because Pokemon would crush SF2 with the ASV anywhere, even California. I think what you're looking for is the SNV (heavily fueled by CA).


LOL that's what you really believe
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#355 | Team Rocket Elite (Moderator) | Posted 11/7/2011 9:40:08 PM | message detail
Yeah I was kinda surprised that match was so debated. I took Phoenix without any internal debate, and never really thought to change it after I found the match was debated. Just didn't seem like Gordon vs. Who could compete with the popular Phoenix vs. Edgey rivalry.

I mean I've never spent one second playing a PW game and even I'm very familiar with that rivalry.


http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2520

I had Gordon on my bracket because I was treating this contest too much like a tag team and not a rivalry. I didn't think Edgeworth's value over Breen would be enough to close that gap.

The one first round match that makes me wonder is the Bosses against FFX. The Bosses deserve to be favored (hard to trust Tidus, ever), but Tidus/Jecht is a legit competitor. And I think being paired with Jecht makes Tidus more likable. Tough draw for the FFX team though.

Big Boss is way stronger than either Jecht or Tidus. Big Boss vs. The Boss is a legtimate rivalry as well. That should be enough for the Boss team to pull through.
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#356 | red sox 777 | Posted 11/7/2011 9:41:34 PM | message detail
Who are you and what did you do with Leon?
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#357 | izNotPerfect | Posted 11/7/2011 9:44:57 PM | message detail

From: Team Rocket Elite | #355
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2520

I had Gordon on my bracket because I was treating this contest too much like a tag team and not a rivalry. I didn't think Edgeworth's value over Breen would be enough to close that gap.


Same here, now I'm regretting it.
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#358 | creativename | Posted 11/7/2011 9:47:01 PM | message detail

From: izNotPerfect | #346
I'm starting to seriously doubt my bracket pick of Samus/Ridley getting to semis.


That's only the thing about my bracket I'd change. I think it's a very very debatable match but I'd feel more comfortable with Ken/Ryu.

From: LeonhartFour | #338
Looks like a Big Boss/The Boss beating performance to me!


Think Samus/Ridley will take that one, but it should be a relatively close match. 55-45 or something probably.

I do however think it's quite possible that both the Trainers and Ken/Ryu are stronger than Samus/Ridley. I think that Samus/Ridley has a very large range they could fall within - they might be strong because of Samus and Ridley being in lots of games together, or voters might go "pffft Ridley get real" and the duo ends up mediocre. Hard to say. I lean more towards strong than mediocre - but not as strong as Samus.

I believe Ridley is going to be even less respected as a partner than Ganon. Also Metroid fans aren't drones.
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#359 | Xuxon | Posted 11/7/2011 9:47:05 PM | message detail

From: creativename | #353
Cecil/Kain would have won IMO. I estimated before this match that Cecil/Kain would do at least 5 points better. So I think Cecil/Kain would have won a 24 hour match, probably even a day match. Cecil/Kain would be much stronger.

Love Golbez, but it should have been Kain here. Pretty surprising that Golbez made it instead.


Don't blame me, I nominated Cecil/Kain even though I like Golbez better than Kain! Cecil/Kain is just the better rivalry. Really don't get how that happened.
#360 | smitelf | Posted 11/7/2011 9:48:03 PM | message detail

From: Xuxon | #359
Don't blame me, I nominated Cecil/Kain even though I like Golbez better than Kain! Cecil/Kain is just the better rivalry. Really don't get how that happened.


People not knowing what a rivalry is. Sooo many people mistake it for hero vs villain.
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#361 | Greyfeld | Posted 11/7/2011 9:48:09 PM | message detail
Why does ASV matter when Trainers/Fighters is going to be a 24 hour match?
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#362 | red sox 777 | Posted 11/7/2011 9:48:44 PM | message detail
It doesn't, this conversation was all jesting.
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#363 | LeonhartFour | Posted 11/7/2011 9:50:11 PM | message detail
The issue was that Bacon put Cecil/Golbez into the suggestion database by default and never included Cecil/Kain.

The nominations database is a very good system, but it's also very flawed if Bacon doesn't bother to update it after the first 24 hours of noms because the power of suggestion works, and some people may have thought that only Cecil/Golbez was being accepted.
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#364 | smitelf | Posted 11/7/2011 9:50:52 PM | message detail

From: creativename | #358
That's only the thing about my bracket I'd change. I think it's a very very debatable match but I'd feel more comfortable with Ken/Ryu.


Agreed that Ken/Ryu is looking safer right now, and I don't think that Samus/Ridley can impress me enough against their uberfodder to change my mind on this.
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#365 | LeonhartFour | Posted 11/7/2011 9:51:06 PM | message detail

From: Greyfeld | #361
Why does ASV matter when Trainers/Fighters is going to be a 24 hour match?


uhhh that's exactly why it matters
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#366 | Team Rocket Elite (Moderator) | Posted 11/7/2011 9:52:35 PM | message detail
Cecil vs. Golbez was only a 5th seed. I think Board 8 might have been over to overpower that if we had been more focused on it.
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#367 | creativename | Posted 11/7/2011 9:54:34 PM | message detail

From: Team Rocket Elite | #355I had Gordon on my bracket because I was treating this contest too much like a tag team and not a rivalry. I didn't think Edgeworth's value over Breen would be enough to close that gap.


Phoenix got stronger since that match. Although I just checked and it looks like Gordon did way better in 2010 than I thought! Still, I have a hard time envisioning a rivalry with Breen winning there.

From: Team Rocket Elite | #355Big Boss is way stronger than either Jecht or Tidus. Big Boss vs. The Boss is a legtimate rivalry as well. That should be enough for the Boss team to pull through.


Indeed, I agreed that the Bosses should be favored. But I think that might have the highest chance of actually being a good match.

From: Xuxon | #359
Don't blame me, I nominated Cecil/Kain even though I like Golbez better than Kain! Cecil/Kain is just the better rivalry. Really don't get how that happened.


Erm. I nominated Cecil/Golbez >_> So I share some of the blame...but I can still whine! My Golbez love blinded me so much I didn't even think of Kain. And would have nommed Golbez anyway because I would have figured there was no way he'd make it over Kain. I mean really - what the hell were the odds of that?
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#368 | vcharon | Posted 11/7/2011 9:54:36 PM | message detail
Ryu gonna finish what he started back in '02.
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#369 | MoogleKupo141 | Posted 11/7/2011 9:56:06 PM | message detail
The issue was that Bacon put Cecil/Golbez into the suggestion database by default and never included Cecil/Kain.

which is super weird, since Bacon theoretically loves FFIV and should know Kain is a way better choice

he's disappointing
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#370 | Kotetsu534 | Posted 11/7/2011 9:56:13 PM | message detail
Yeah, I love everything about my bracket (including Crash > Pac-Man, people are going to be shocked when that's tight!), except for Samus/Ridley to the SFs. For most of the pre-bracket phase I had Ryu/Ken before deciding Samus would be a step too far considering how much better Samus did on Cloud than Ryu. I doubt that now.
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#371 | LeonhartFour | Posted 11/7/2011 9:57:00 PM | message detail

From: MoogleKupo141 | #369
The issue was that Bacon put Cecil/Golbez into the suggestion database by default and never included Cecil/Kain.

which is super weird, since Bacon theoretically loves FFIV and should know Kain is a way better choice

he's disappointing


Well, he doesn't seem to understand the concept of a rivalry, for one thing, and he's probably one of those weirdos who likes Golbez better than Kain!
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#372 | Xuxon | Posted 11/7/2011 9:57:13 PM | message detail

From: vcharon | #368
Ryu gonna finish what he started back in '02.


What he and Ken started actually. I can't believe I didn't think of that before.
#373 | Greyfeld | Posted 11/7/2011 9:57:46 PM | message detail
LeonhartFour posted...
From: Greyfeld | #361
Why does ASV matter when Trainers/Fighters is going to be a 24 hour match?
uhhh that's exactly why it matters


I don't think I get it.
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#374 | PartOfYourWorld | Posted 11/7/2011 9:58:52 PM | message detail
Whoa, are the Battle Stats actually fixed?

http://www.gamefaqs.com/features/rivals_battle_stats.html
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#375 | Kotetsu534 | Posted 11/7/2011 9:59:31 PM | message detail
ASVs are diluted in 12 hour day matches and irrelevant in 12 hour night matches. When there's already been 15 hours of voting, the kiddies have a huge influence on the remaining votes coming in.
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#376 | creativename | Posted 11/7/2011 9:59:39 PM | message detail

From: LeonhartFour | #363
The issue was that Bacon put Cecil/Golbez into the suggestion database by default and never included Cecil/Kain.

The nominations database is a very good system, but it's also very flawed if Bacon doesn't bother to update it after the first 24 hours of noms because the power of suggestion works, and some people may have thought that only Cecil/Golbez was being accepted.


Oh. Well that explains it then. Yeah, pretty bias-inducing system.

From: smitelf | #364
Agreed that Ken/Ryu is looking safer right now, and I don't think that Samus/Ridley can impress me enough against their uberfodder to change my mind on this.


I cared so little about that match that I've never even bothered to ask - what the hell game are The Kid and The Guy from?

Good lord. I can't even fathom how high that blowout will be, and I'm iffy on Samus/Ridley! Whoever The Kid and The Guy are, Marty Ridletty could probably triple them by himself.
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#377 | LeonhartFour | Posted 11/7/2011 9:59:46 PM | message detail
#378 | Justin_Crossing | Posted 11/7/2011 10:00:05 PM | message detail
I Wanna Be The Guy
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#379 | LeonhartFour | Posted 11/7/2011 10:00:46 PM | message detail

From: shinigami820 | #288
I got a question regarding the 13th round: Who is The Kid and The Guy, and what game are they from?


From: LeonhartFour | #292
I Wanna Be the Guy


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#380 | red sox 777 | Posted 11/7/2011 10:02:36 PM | message detail | (edited)
I have no idea who The Kid and The Guy are either, but I imagine their names will give them some votes. Wouldn't expect them to be bottom of the barrel for that reason. Plus, they got in through a vote-in, which demonstrates at least some modicum of strength.
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#381 | creativename | Posted 11/7/2011 10:03:01 PM | message detail

From: LeonhartFour | #371
Well, he doesn't seem to understand the concept of a rivalry, for one thing, and he's probably one of those weirdos who likes Golbez better than Kain!


Golbez *IS* better. People just have bad taste there.

I mean Kain rules too. But really. Golbez.

Only Rubicant even compares.
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#382 | TheOceIot | Posted 11/7/2011 10:03:43 PM | message detail
Only 515 people with 5500 points? Seems kinda low, but I'm part of that group so woop woop
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#383 | izNotPerfect | Posted 11/7/2011 10:03:47 PM | message detail

From: Kotetsu534 | #370
(including Crash > Pac-Man


wat

Anyways, the only two things I'd change are Trainers > Samus and Wright/Edgeworth > Freeman after seeing how much rivalries actually matter. (Rivalries mattering in a rivalry contest...who'd a thunk it?)

Southwest division is going to kill a lot of brackets...it's sad that such an important division will ultimately end as lunch meat for Link/Ganondorf :\

From: Greyfeld | #361
Why does ASV matter when Trainers/Fighters is going to be a 24 hour match?


Because...ASV happens during that time. o_O
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#384 | S1nharvest | Posted 11/7/2011 10:04:16 PM | message detail
Yuna/Seymour for the upset.....>_>...........<_<.............
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#385 | PartOfYourWorld | Posted 11/7/2011 10:05:23 PM | message detail
It's a free independent game developed by one guy, I believe. It's known largely for its incredible difficulty.

Also, we have 515 perfects in the Battle Stats, and we're halfway to Phoenix/Gordon. These 515 should be made up primarily of B8ers and people who know what they're doing, so I expect at least a couple hundred perfects by the time big match #21 rolls around. If that is indeed the case, no way will I be banking.
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#386 | LeonhartFour | Posted 11/7/2011 10:05:59 PM | message detail
Golbez more like Lamez
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#387 | Xuxon | Posted 11/7/2011 10:06:42 PM | message detail
I think I'd like to have Dante over Sora. And maybe Kirby over Sonic, but I love Robotnik too much to pick that anyway. Otherwise I'm good with my completely cookie other than Street Fighter > Samus and FF7 > Link.
#388 | charmander6000 | Posted 11/7/2011 10:06:58 PM | message detail
Pretty good by Ryu/Ken, they have obviously accepted the challenge.
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#389 | AxemRedRanger | Posted 11/7/2011 10:08:56 PM | message detail | (edited)
14th on battle leaderboard. Awesome.

Got there briefly last year but Shadow of the Colossus ruined that.
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#390 | Greyfeld | Posted 11/7/2011 10:09:27 PM | message detail
izNotPerfect posted...
Because...ASV happens during that time. o_O

Well, I mean, a 24 hour match inflicts the benefits of both a day match and a night match, so it just seems to me like the benefits of the ASV would be somewhat reduced.
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#391 | LeonhartFour | Posted 11/7/2011 10:09:57 PM | message detail

From: Greyfeld | #390
Well, I mean, a 24 hour match inflicts the benefits of both a day match and a night match, so it just seems to me like the benefits of the ASV would be somewhat reduced.


That's the exact opposite of how it works. Day vote trends are diluted because there are no night trends.
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#392 | creativename | Posted 11/7/2011 10:11:02 PM | message detail
So, like, nobody here actually knows what game those two are from? Who nominated them? I'm confused.

From: red sox 777 | #380
I have no idea who The Kid and The Guy are either, but I imagine their names will give them some votes. Wouldn't expect them to be bottom of the barrel for that reason. Plus, they got in through a vote-in, which demonstrates at least some modicum of strength.


Hmm.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=4480

So apparently they more or less went even with the Earthworm Jim team, they might break 15% on Samus after all. Maybe.

Though...I kinda wonder. How many people who voted for them in that vote-in actually knew who "The Kid" and "The Guy" actually were...? Rather than voting for generic names out of complete apathy for the worst list of chump options evar.

BTW. Little Mac vs. Mike Tyson could sooo have challenged in that poll.
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#393 | Xuxon | Posted 11/7/2011 10:11:43 PM | message detail
Day vote trends are diluted in 12 hour matches relative to 24 hour matches, but having a better day vote actually matters in a 12 hour match, whereas in a 24 hour match only pure strength matters.
#394 | Greyfeld | Posted 11/7/2011 10:11:44 PM | message detail
LeonhartFour posted...
From: Greyfeld | #390
Well, I mean, a 24 hour match inflicts the benefits of both a day match and a night match, so it just seems to me like the benefits of the ASV would be somewhat reduced.
That's the exact opposite of how it works. Day vote trends are diluted because there are no night trends.


Uh... what?

That... I'm sorry, but you're going to have to break that down further, because none of that makes any sense to me.
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#395 | Greyfeld | Posted 11/7/2011 10:13:58 PM | message detail
Xuxon posted...
Day vote trends are diluted in 12 hour matches relative to 24 hour matches, but having a better day vote actually matters in a 12 hour match, whereas in a 24 hour match only pure strength matters.

See, this is what I was saying. Since the match is 24 hours long, ASV shouldn't matter as much, because there's a whole 12 more hours to account for that dilutes the power the ASV usually holds over your typicaly 12 hour day match.
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#396 | LeonhartFour | Posted 11/7/2011 10:14:05 PM | message detail

From: creativename | #392
So, like, nobody here actually knows what game those two are from? Who nominated them? I'm confused.


How many posts do you need to see that say they're from "I Wanna Be The Guy?"
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#397 | Xuxon | Posted 11/7/2011 10:14:31 PM | message detail

From: Greyfeld | #394
Uh... what?

That... I'm sorry, but you're going to have to break that down further, because none of that makes any sense to me.


Basically, the percentage shifts at ~3PM EST are higher in a 24 hour match, because there has been 15 hours of significantly different trends before that. In a 12-hour match, it's only been 3 hours, and the trends aren't as contrasting from just those 3 hours.
#398 | red sox 777 | Posted 11/7/2011 10:14:45 PM | message detail
That... I'm sorry, but you're going to have to break that down further, because none of that makes any sense to me.

You are correct, for a character with a good day vote, a day match is the best, followed by a 24-hour match, and worst is a night match. In a day match you may not see a big ASV swing, but that's because the day character is getting that day support the entire time, which is even better.
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#399 | ZFS | Posted 11/7/2011 10:15:05 PM | message detail
82% feels good!
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#400 | LeonhartFour | Posted 11/7/2011 10:15:15 PM | message detail

From: Greyfeld | #395
Since the match is 24 hours long, ASV shouldn't matter as much, because there's a whole 12 more hours to account for that dilutes the power the ASV usually holds over your typicaly 12 hour day match.


But that's not what it means at all.

Because there are characters who are better at night and characters who are better during the day. When you put those two things together, the character who is good at night and bad during the day will drop quite a bit during the day and vice-versa for the character who is bad during the night and good during the day. When you have no disparity, then you have diluted trends.
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