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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1013

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#151 | TheOneAboveAll | Posted 11/7/2011 10:53:47 AM | message detail
As far as iconic rivalries go, Mario/Bowser is much better than Link/Ganon.

The thing is, unlike Bowser, Ganondorf doesn't actually appear in that many games. Yeah he's popular, but he doesn't really have the same type of rivalry with Link that Bowser does with Mario. Let's not forget the Mario spinoffs, either, the RPGs at least certainly help the relationship between Bowser and Mario.


I said this before the tournament started, and I'll say it again. Mario himself is 10x more iconic than Link. That's never helped him avoid getting crushed here. Why would Mario/Bowser being more iconic than Link/Ganondorf be any different?
#152 | junk_funk | Posted 11/7/2011 10:57:17 AM | message detail
Cloud and Seph are the only legit contenders to Link. I believe they will get 45%.
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#153 | turbopuns | Posted 11/7/2011 11:03:30 AM | message detail
TheOneAboveAll posted...

I said this before the tournament started, and I'll say it again. Mario himself is 10x more iconic than Link. That's never helped him avoid getting crushed here. Why would Mario/Bowser being more iconic than Link/Ganondorf be any different?


Pretty much this.
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#154 | abdou | Posted 11/7/2011 11:05:42 AM | message detail
junk_funk posted...
Cloud and Seph are the only legit contenders to Link. I believe they will get 45%.

So you think Cloud and Sephiroth will get LESS on Link/Ganon than what Cloud get on Link 1 vs 1 ? I doubt it..
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#155 | PartOfYourWorld | Posted 11/7/2011 11:06:44 AM | message detail
Yeah, Mario ain't winning that. OoT crushes his whole series, and LttP beats any single game he has. That'll persist even to this format.

Cloud/Seph has the best shot. After that, it's the Pokemon Trainers, but I can't imagine they'd get through Mario.
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#156 | WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 11/7/2011 11:09:30 AM | message detail
The only way Mario/Bowser wins the contest is if Cloud/Seph beats Link/Ganon then pulls a finals collapse/OH GOD MUST RALLY FOR NINTENDO BECAUSE FINAL FANTASY ALWAYS WINS.

Very unlikely, but well, it's more likely than Mario/Bowser beating Link/Ganon head-to-head.
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#157 | Ultimaphazon | Posted 11/7/2011 11:09:52 AM | message detail
I've been wondering about the Link/Ganondorf rivalry:I'm not a big fan OoT, but to me, OoT really isn't about Link/Ganondorf.
FFVII on the other hand is all about Cloud/Sephiroth. I'm not sure it's possible to like FFVII without liking the rivalry, while it seems possible to like OoT wtihout caring about Link/Ganondorf.

Basically, I feel Cloud/Seph are much more representative of their game than Link/Ganondorf is of their game/series.
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#158 | foxhead84 | Posted 11/7/2011 12:00:33 PM | message detail
Battle stats now seems ok... at least they make way more sense.

5892 peoples have 4500 potential points (perfect)

But than again nobody have banked a single point. So not quite fix yet but still a good thing
#159 | scotted4 | Posted 11/7/2011 12:40:15 PM | message detail
Lightning Strikes posted...
Cecil/Golbez isn't even a proper rivalry. I'll be honest I think it isn't so much rivalry factor they're getting as anti-rivalry factor... against Luigi/Waluigi. That's why I voted for them, at least.

Now, Cecil/Kain, there was a rivalry.


^this, I chose Luigi-Waluigi as I consider it more of a rivalry then Golbez-Cecil
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#160 | Zylo the wolf | Posted 11/7/2011 12:43:11 PM | message detail
SmartvotersFAQs, Rivalry matter e.t.c.

So what about Siegfried/Nightmare VS Ramza/Delita?

I went with the FFT pair because even if Ramza never looked good I can't get it out of my mind that FFT went 50/50 with MGS back in 2004 so I guess many have played FFT and I don't think it's possible to not love their rivalry if you have played it. Siegfried on the other hand is not in even in the most popular Soul game, and people don't give Soul Blade the credit it deserves nowadays.
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#161 | PartOfYourWorld | Posted 11/7/2011 12:46:27 PM | message detail

From: foxhead84 | #158
Battle stats now seems ok... at least they make way more sense.

5892 peoples have 4500 potential points (perfect)

But than again nobody have banked a single point. So not quite fix yet but still a good thing


It's still off by thousands (the most possible perfects we can have is 3789), but the fix at least shows SB is aware and working on it.
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#162 | Greyfeld | Posted 11/7/2011 1:05:59 PM | message detail
Zylo the wolf posted...
SmartvotersFAQs, Rivalry matter e.t.c.

So what about Siegfried/Nightmare VS Ramza/Delita?

I went with the FFT pair because even if Ramza never looked good I can't get it out of my mind that FFT went 50/50 with MGS back in 2004 so I guess many have played FFT and I don't think it's possible to not love their rivalry if you have played it. Siegfried on the other hand is not in even in the most popular Soul game, and people don't give Soul Blade the credit it deserves nowadays.


Ramza is turbofodder. He ranks just below Laharl.

Last year, Ramza got 37.69% against Riku. In 2007, Nightmare pulled just over 39% on Riku (If my calculations are correct, that is. I had to extrapolate from a 4-way poll).

Ramza's had no reason to improve since last year, but there have been rumblings about SCV (especially since they leaked the inclusion of Ezio in their character roster).

The only unknown factor in this match is how much of a boost the two pairings are going to get from their rivalry factor.
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#163 | Greyfeld | Posted 11/7/2011 1:15:52 PM | message detail
Greyfeld posted...
In 2007, Nightmare pulled just over 39% on Riku (If my calculations are correct, that is. I had to extrapolate from a 4-way poll).

Excuse me, just under 44%. I did screw up my calculations lol.
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#164 | AppreciateTrees | Posted 11/7/2011 1:31:19 PM | message detail
people don't give Soul Blade the credit it deserves nowadays.

So true. Played that game so much, and it definitely had my favorite soundtrack out of the whole Soul series.
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#165 | MarioSuperstar | Posted 11/7/2011 1:51:33 PM | message detail
Yeah, I'm not sure why people think Waluigi is all of the sudden comparable to Ganondorf other than the fact that people are just repeating the mantra "rivalry matters" and expect it to mean something self-explanatory.

Just wait until we actually see Link; not a completely unrelated character and rivalry.
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#166 | PartOfYourWorld | Posted 11/7/2011 1:53:49 PM | message detail
Why would I WAIT for Link when I can ascertain without a shadow of doubt who will win the contest right now? That's what EVERYONE'S DOING.
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#167 | HaRRicH | Posted 11/7/2011 1:56:11 PM | message detail
I never really feared the Luigi's, even when I wasn't giving much credit to the trainers...but I still thought they'd break 60% on Cecil/Golbez. There's gonna be a Poke-beatdown next round.
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#168 | GranzonEx | Posted 11/7/2011 2:03:45 PM | message detail
Link wins without a shadow of doubt.
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#169 | AlecTrevelyan006 | Posted 11/7/2011 2:30:38 PM | message detail
I think people are underrating Ganondorf.

Now Cloud/Seph have a chance, but that's not because "Ganondorf/Link rivalry sucks", it is because "this is a good rivalry between two of the strongest characters ever"
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#170 | KamikazePotato | Posted 11/7/2011 2:35:23 PM | message detail
Also, Link/Ganondorf rivalry sucks.
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#171 | FateStayAlbion | Posted 11/7/2011 2:38:54 PM | message detail
I went with the FFT Duo due to the fact its one of the best rivalries in gaming, and I'd kick myself later if they won and I picked against them. Delita is a character that has missed too many contests and needs to win a match.
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#172 | vcharon | Posted 11/7/2011 2:51:58 PM | message detail
Well, apparently I did change my bracket to Cecil/Golbez so that'll end it for me. At least I lost my bracket to something that looks a bit more legitimate than what others have lost it too.
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#173 | HaRRicH | Posted 11/7/2011 3:03:14 PM | message detail
When comparing the field of sixty-four rivalries, Link/Ganon's still going to be one of the teams to best benefit from it. Doubt's just raising because Link/Ganon aren't considered likely to benefit as much as their only real competition...

...but it's worth mentioning the rivalry with the most games have won eight of the past ten matches. We'll get to see how much recurring feuds matter against one-game rivalries later in higher-profile matches like Samus/Ridley facing BB/Boss and Trainers facing Ryu/Ken, but right now it's a good stat to have. Nintendo's also gone 6-1 thus far; its only loss was when Captain Falcon/Black Shadow dropped it to MMX/Zero.

Between those numbers and LoZ:SS on the horizon, Link/Ganon's not in a bad position right now.
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#174 | Justin_Crossing | Posted 11/7/2011 3:04:34 PM | message detail
i am now part of ONE LESS BRACKET
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#175 | BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 11/7/2011 3:12:00 PM | message detail
lol luigi

I had no idea so many people had him beating the Pokedorks. Can't wait to see Ryu/Ken tear **** up tomorrow, just to shut up the Trainer supporters.
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#176 | junk_funk | Posted 11/7/2011 3:18:02 PM | message detail | (edited)
The comeback begins!

First cut of the day.

lol, nvm.
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#177 | KamikazePotato | Posted 11/7/2011 3:22:21 PM | message detail
This has been an abysmal ASV for the igis.

After some thought, I think Raynor/Kerrigan beat Ratchet/Nefarious. Raynor/Kerrigan is a more beloved rivalry, and Nefarious is the weakest of the four by far. Having a weak/unknown second character seems like it's going to hurt a lot in this contest.

Feels like Dead Space vs. Up Your Arsenal last year!
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#178 | Safer Sephiroth 777 | Posted 11/7/2011 3:22:48 PM | message detail
So when a match is considered close?If the winner ends up with less than 53%?
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#179 | PartOfYourWorld | Posted 11/7/2011 3:27:54 PM | message detail
Without researching it, I'd also take Kerrigan/Raynor over Ratchet. Starcraft just seems to have more prestige about it.
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#180 | charmander6000 | Posted 11/7/2011 3:40:25 PM | message detail
Ratchet > Kerrigan/Raynor > Dr. Nefarious.
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#181 | BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 11/7/2011 3:44:10 PM | message detail
Anyone saying Kerrigan > Ratchet clearly hasn't seen the last 6 years of contests. If anything it'd be a close match, but I wouldn't be comfortable picking one over the other.
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#182 | ExThaNemesis | Posted 11/7/2011 3:45:51 PM | message detail

From: PartOfYourWorld | #129
I'm still calling him a big favorite. He's just not the guarantee he usually is.


You're trying to drag Link out of the "sure favorite" category just so you can pretend he pulled off this astounding victory when he wins. It's obnoxious!
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#183 | PartOfYourWorld | Posted 11/7/2011 3:48:53 PM | message detail
All of Link's victories are astounding as long as you keep in mind where he comes from. Link's is pretty much the video game equivalent of the Jesus story.

From the humblest beginnings, to king of kings.
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#184 | ExThaNemesis | Posted 11/7/2011 3:57:13 PM | message detail
I can't wait to get on the show and yell at you about this.
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#185 | creativename | Posted 11/7/2011 3:59:36 PM | message detail
I fully expect Link to thrash Arthas and people will foolishly go "LOL@the people who thought Link could lose".

But Zelda should beat the living crap out of that team. Once again people are forgetting two things:

1) Two stronger characters vs. two weaker ones will exaggerate blowouts. This will be a worse blowout than Link vs. Arthas would be 1v1.

2) As I've said a few times, I think people are acting like this is a tag-team contest and it's not. People are voting based on the *rivalry itself*. Not "this character independently added to that character". That's why Crono could probably 60/40 Crono vs. Lavos - Crono as a character has more prestige than Crono vs. Lavos the rivalry. Link vs. Ganon, while not an elite rivalry, does have some prestige. Arthas vs. who? That's plain junk.

Link might well get the highest blowout of the first round. Wouldn't be surprised to see 85% there. But make no mistake - even if he does he could still very much lose this contest. Because while Link/Ganon is a solid rivalry, it definitely isn't Mario/Bowser or Cloud/Sephiroth.

Link/Ganon as a rivalry does not have the cachet of Link as a character either. People loooooove Link - but do they love Link/Ganon the rivalry? Now I'm not going to go so far as to say Link/Ganon will be weaker than Link, because Ganon isn't Lavos, and most Link fans probably still vote for him (Zeldrones and all that). However it is within the realm of possibility that Link/Ganon is, in fact, weaker than Link. There is no way in hell Cloud/Sephiroth is weaker than the individual characters, and I expect Mario/Bowser to be stronger than Mario as well.

From: KamikazePotato | #177and Nefarious is the weakest of the four by far. Having a weak/unknown second character seems like it's going to hurt a lot in this contest.


I'd take the Ratchet team I think. Also is Nefarious really the weakest? Kerrigan is damn weak and Raynor should be much weaker than her. I mean that's pretty damn weak we're talking already. All three of the non-Ratchet characters are turbofodder. Ratchet is no longer turbofodder since those PS3 commercials, I think his team would beat the Starcraft team comfortably.

And we've already seen the Starcraft team bomb so you can't really say they'd get rivalry synergy just because PC fans like the rivalry. PC fan tastes don't really matter here.

Wouldn't be shocked if Ryu/Ken underperform the currently super-lofty expectations, but I still wouldn't have much concern that they will lose to the Trainers. IMO they will win that match comfortably. It's Ryu/Ken.

Samus should be shakin' in her power suit though because whatever Metroid fans think, there is nothing iconic about the Samus vs. Ridley rivalry.
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#186 | ZFS | Posted 11/7/2011 4:00:00 PM | message detail
Haha. I don't even think you have to wait that long. When Link crushes his first round opponent, Yoblazer will be hypin'!
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#187 | creativename | Posted 11/7/2011 4:02:47 PM | message detail

From: PartOfYourWorld | #183
All of Link's victories are astounding as long as you keep in mind where he comes from. Link's is pretty much the video game equivalent of the Jesus story.

From the humblest beginnings, to king of kings.


Wait - does Link ever actually get any fame or glory? I mean in OoT obviously no one remembers, but I can't recall him becoming famous in any other Zelda either.

And is it ever said that any version of him and Zelda marry?

Link actually seems to have something in common with Ramza here, in terms of lack of credit.
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#188 | ZFS | Posted 11/7/2011 4:03:58 PM | message detail
Wouldn't be shocked if Ryu/Ken underperform the currently super-lofty expectations, but I still wouldn't have much concern that they will lose to the Trainers. IMO they will win that match comfortably. It's Ryu/Ken.

These are my thoughts as well. I can already see people, especially those in favor of the trainers, calling it a done deal when Ryu/Ken fail to produce the same results. I would get worried if they're significantly below par, but as long as they do well, it'll be fine. The more important match for me is how Samus/Ridley do along the way.
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#189 | KamikazePotato | Posted 11/7/2011 4:04:02 PM | message detail
It's Ryu/Ken.

Ryu/Ken is heavily overrated around here. Mostly by SF fans, but yeah. They shouldn't be given the benefit of the doubt against actual competition under any circumstances.
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#190 | IngmarBirdman | Posted 11/7/2011 4:04:27 PM | message detail
Link is pretty much ... Jesus

Fixed. Vote Link.

Or LAW ... But Ganondorf NEVER wins. So vote Link.
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#191 | KamikazePotato | Posted 11/7/2011 4:05:02 PM | message detail
Heh. That's an interesting post. "Whatever the result, I still think they win."
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#192 | creativename | Posted 11/7/2011 4:07:58 PM | message detail

From: KamikazePotato | #189
It's Ryu/Ken.

Ryu/Ken is heavily overrated around here. Mostly by SF fans, but yeah. They shouldn't be given the benefit of the doubt against actual competition under any circumstances.


Yeah. Color me super skeptical that you will be anything approaching accurate on this :)

Ryu/Ken will be beasts, rank amongst the highest teams in the x-stats, and it will be wholly unsurprising.
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#193 | ZFS | Posted 11/7/2011 4:08:02 PM | message detail
But I didn't say "whatever the result," I said as long as they do well I'm not too bothered. I'm not looking for a matching percent or higher here, like the Pokemon fans are. I fully expect Ryu/Ken to come under Pokemon's percentage by a couple of points. That'll be enough for people here to go "POKEMON DOMINATION," but it wouldn't bother me. If they end up in the mid-60s or something like that, then yeah, that's major cause for concern. I'm not going to argue about 2-3 points, though, and no "rivalry matters" argument is more in Pokemon's favor than it is Ryu and Ken.
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#194 | transience | Posted 11/7/2011 4:08:15 PM | message detail
you know, everyone's been focusing on Ryu/Ken vs. Samus/Ridley. I'm more curious about Big Boss/Boss vs. Samus/Ridley. it's about the same thing - same strength, great rivalry, Samus's rivalry being questionable (though better than the Mario or the Link one)
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#195 | ZFS | Posted 11/7/2011 4:08:35 PM | message detail
creative knows what's up. We're on the same wavelength here!
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#196 | ZFS | Posted 11/7/2011 4:10:47 PM | message detail
I love the idea of Big Boss over Samus, but I wonder how well-respected the Boss rivalry is on GameFAQs. I don't think it has the same "classic" aura to it that something like, say, Solid / Liquid does -- even if it's a worse rivalry in comparison. I think that match will be close, though, much moreso than the attention it's being given.
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#197 | KamikazePotato | Posted 11/7/2011 4:11:58 PM | message detail | (edited)
And there's your problem. You're basically using fanboy logic. You don't sound any different from MWC trumpeting Red/Blue storming through the bracket based on really nothing. In your mind, Ryu/Ken has already beaten Red/Blue. It doesn't matter how well either of them do in their respective matches - because it's Ryu/Ken, guys.

Now, I think Ryu/Ken is the favorite at this point, but that's extremely poor logic/arguing in just about every way. There have been plenty of arguments about why Ryu/Ken might not be as strong as expected, and while they might not be true in the end, I'd rather listen to them than someone who puts a rivalry in italics and calls it a day.
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#198 | jacko_vdz | Posted 11/7/2011 4:11:45 PM | message detail
Pokemon Trainer Red vs. Pokemon Trainer Blue 76.92% 26432
Mario vs. Bowser 85.36% 27148

Might of already been mentioned, but Mario only got 716 more votes than the trainers. It'll be interesting to see how Ryu compares.
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#199 | transcience | Posted 11/7/2011 4:14:51 PM | message detail
this is a fanboy fight on both sides. weird how this match has gotten by far the most scrutiny so far. X/Sub is just as good and worth the same amount.
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#200 | ZFS | Posted 11/7/2011 4:16:05 PM | message detail
That's fine. I'm not trying to convince you that Ryu/Ken are going to win that match -- and I suspect no amount of arguing will sway you from believing, and wanting to believe, that Red/Blue are gonna go into that match with an advantage and pull off a win. All I'm saying is that, right now, Ryu/Ken rank among my expected top tier for this contest. That's always been my position, even before the contest. I'm not saying that regardless of what happens that will remain true, but I'm not going to start busting out the math to figure out what needs to happen, and there's just no way that people here won't be giving it to Red/Blue if Ryu/Ken don't have the same percentage or better. That's totally what we're revving up for. Maybe it proves right in the end, but I don't think it will.
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