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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1013

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#1 | UltimaterializerX | Posted 11/7/2011 4:25:16 AM | message detail
I picked Luigi to beat the trainers.

LAUGH WITH ME. God I'm stupid.



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A = Strongest Character
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To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
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SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote. This is the best example of SFF we've ever seen. However take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make perfect sense.

Extrapolated Standings - The mathematical "strength" of a contestant that's determined based on their performance relative to the rest of the field. This number is typically based on the contest entrant's loss, but adjustments are sometimes made. See above for a watered down explanation for how the stats are calculated.
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#2 | WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 11/7/2011 4:26:20 AM | message detail
I can't believe someone actually took Mario Sports over Red/Blue/Yellow XFD.
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#3 | redrocket | Posted 11/7/2011 4:35:17 AM | message detail
If Cecil/Golbez actually pull off the upset... man.
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#4 | Oxbridge | Posted 11/7/2011 4:48:17 AM | message detail | (edited)
Could just be the fodder the Pokemon trainers are facing being weak.

We'll find out tonight just how strong Luigi/Waluigi is.
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#5 | UltimaterializerX | Posted 11/7/2011 4:53:01 AM | message detail

From: WarThaNemesis2 | #002
I can't believe someone actually took Mario Sports over Red/Blue/Yellow XFD.


XFD
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#6 | SHINE GET 64 | Posted 11/7/2011 4:53:50 AM | message detail
#7 | GranzonEx | Posted 11/7/2011 4:54:02 AM | message detail
People were telling me the Trainers were fodder after watching the ninjas stomp RE4.
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#8 | ShatteredElysium | Posted 11/7/2011 5:00:48 AM | message detail
I have the trainers to the semi's but my bracket is a shambles anyway. I basically just did it quickly and never bothered looking back so didn't bother entering it in the guru.

I have gems in there such as Yuna > Fox.
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Crucifying my Oracle average one match at a time
#9 | pjbasis | Posted 11/7/2011 5:13:25 AM | message detail
Sakurai: *laughs*
#10 | WhiteLens | Posted 11/7/2011 7:18:20 AM | message detail
Now I'm starting to wish that kept with my initial pick of having the Trainers win the division.
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#11 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 11/7/2011 7:49:43 AM | message detail
UltimaterializerX | Posted 11/7/2011 7:25:16 AM | message detail | quote
I picked Luigi to beat the trainers.


I did that too, although I did have Luigi losing to Ryu/Ken in round 3.
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#12 | Greyfeld | Posted 11/7/2011 8:51:53 AM | message detail
Oxbridge posted...
Could just be the fodder the Pokemon trainers are facing being weak.

We'll find out tonight just how strong Luigi/Waluigi is.


Well, Raynor/Kerrigan IS weak. Even if the rivalry is decent, it's a PC game, and PC games are less popular than the Wii here. Hell, last year Deus Ex (claimed by many to be one of the greatest PC games of all time) only barely edged out Rock Band in round 1 of GOTD.

Of course, Red/Blue still has strength. But I think the second round will be more enlightening as to just how much they have.
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#13 | Articuno2001 | Posted 11/7/2011 8:59:09 AM | message detail

From: UltimaterializerX | #001
I picked Luigi to beat the trainers.

LAUGH WITH ME. God I'm stupid.


I did too, don't worry too much.

=|
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2011 Rivalry Rumble Contest - 6/6 points, Today: Ezio/Rodrigo, Sub-Zero/Scorpion
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#14 | WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 11/7/2011 9:00:40 AM | message detail
#15 | Kotetsu534 | Posted 11/7/2011 9:02:00 AM | message detail
Woah Cecil.
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Praise the Black Turtle, Game of the Decade Guru Champ.
(Well, I never promised creativity, did I?!)
#16 | pjbasis | Posted 11/7/2011 9:02:25 AM | message detail
Sheath your blade!
#17 | ZFS | Posted 11/7/2011 9:02:30 AM | message detail
There's the low percentage I was talking about earlier! Good show, though Luigi probably has this considering it's a day match.
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#18 | PartOfYourWorld | Posted 11/7/2011 9:02:36 AM | message detail
This is the worst match for Link so far.
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#19 | WhiteLens | Posted 11/7/2011 9:02:43 AM | message detail
Finally, our first close match!
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#20 | ctesjbuvf | Posted 11/7/2011 9:02:52 AM | message detail
Whoa. Lol people picking Luigi/Waluigi over Red/Blue.
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#21 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 11/7/2011 9:02:55 AM | message detail
Good thing I approached this match with caution when making my Oracle prediction. My 55.26% prediction could look good if Luigi/Waluigi holds on. I don't think Cecil/Golbez will survive the ASV though if he gets a lead in this match.
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#22 | KamikazePotato | Posted 11/7/2011 9:02:57 AM | message detail
I REALLY wish this was a night match. As it stands, Cecil gets crushed by the ASV in a repeat of Knuckles.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#23 | charmander6000 | Posted 11/7/2011 9:03:10 AM | message detail
Didn't Cecil almost lead against Knuckles at the beginning?
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/Rivalry%20BOP.xls
Rivalry Rumble: 6/6 Today: Donkey Kong/King K. Rool & Sub-Zero/Scorpion
#24 | XIII_rocks | Posted 11/7/2011 9:03:11 AM | message detail
lmfao @ this

HEY SOUL

YEAH YOUR GUYS AIN'T LOOKING SO HOT

SORRY
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#25 | FateStayAlbion | Posted 11/7/2011 9:03:15 AM | message detail
Heh, seems I was right to worry about this match. Cecil might just win this!
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#26 | GrapefruitKing | Posted 11/7/2011 9:03:22 AM | message detail
Luigi slightly pulling away
lucky it's a day match
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Today's Prediction: Red/Blue - 72.95%
#27 | Master Moltar | Posted 11/7/2011 9:03:41 AM | message detail
ff4 board vote over
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#28 | charmander6000 | Posted 11/7/2011 9:03:51 AM | message detail
Looks like the anti-Waluigi votes are over.
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/Rivalry%20BOP.xls
Rivalry Rumble: 6/6 Today: Donkey Kong/King K. Rool & Sub-Zero/Scorpion
#29 | KingBartz | Posted 11/7/2011 9:04:07 AM | message detail
Luigi is pulling away.

I'm almost certain that he will end up above 60%
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Bracket is 7/8 with today's pick being Red/Blue
#30 | TheCodeisBosco | Posted 11/7/2011 9:04:12 AM | message detail
Cloud and Seph have officially won.
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#31 | XIII_rocks | Posted 11/7/2011 9:04:24 AM | message detail
Luigi will win this, and will likely have a 70/80 vote lead @ the freeze

still terrible though
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#32 | Kotetsu534 | Posted 11/7/2011 9:04:31 AM | message detail
Cecil screwed by time two contests in a row. Unlucky.
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#33 | KamikazePotato | Posted 11/7/2011 9:04:55 AM | message detail
Man. Why isn't Kain here? Cecil/Kain would be winning this.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#34 | XIII_rocks | Posted 11/7/2011 9:05:19 AM | message detail
I stand corrected - lead of 58.

still, lol.
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#35 | WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 11/7/2011 9:05:23 AM | message detail
Cecil could have had a match where he finished well above 70% against Guybrush. Instead, he gets to lose to Waluigi. :(
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#36 | Greyfeld | Posted 11/7/2011 9:05:29 AM | message detail
The people that are using this match to convince themselves that Link will lose are making me LOL
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#37 | ZFS | Posted 11/7/2011 9:06:29 AM | message detail
Sub-Zero/Scorpion was a good indication that rivalries matter, I think the close match here about confirms it. I think everyone was leaning that way anyway, but it's nice to see a second match where it's in play. Cecil/Kain would have been something here.
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#38 | Mr3790 | Posted 11/7/2011 9:06:34 AM | message detail
55/45 FAQs.
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#39 | pjbasis | Posted 11/7/2011 9:06:35 AM | message detail

From: KamikazePotato | #033
Man. Why isn't Kain here? Cecil/Kain would be winning this.


I feel your pain.

Cecil/Kain during the night would have the complete opposite scores right now.

AT LEAST
#40 | GranzonEx | Posted 11/7/2011 9:06:40 AM | message detail
Link/Ganon isn't going to lose to anyone other than Link/Dark Link
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#41 | charmander6000 | Posted 11/7/2011 9:06:41 AM | message detail
Cecil screwed by time two contests in a row. Unlucky.

If Luigi stays at this percent he would win in the night. Also Knuckles has the European vote at night so he may have won then as well.
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/Rivalry%20BOP.xls
Rivalry Rumble: 6/6 Today: Donkey Kong/King K. Rool & Sub-Zero/Scorpion
#42 | abdou | Posted 11/7/2011 9:06:45 AM | message detail
Link WILL lose and if you disagree you are LOL
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#43 | FateStayAlbion | Posted 11/7/2011 9:06:56 AM | message detail
KamikazePotato posted...
Man. Why isn't Kain here? Cecil/Kain would be winning this.

Cecil/Kain plus a night match would have secured their victory here.
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#44 | Whiskey_Nick | Posted 11/7/2011 9:07:05 AM | message detail
Thank you Yoblazer for convincing me Waluigi was the right pick here.
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#45 | Gooper Blooper | Posted 11/7/2011 9:07:07 AM | message detail
WALUIGI IS HERE, NOW THE CONTEST IS FUNNY AGAIN.
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#46 | SabrielAbhorsen | Posted 11/7/2011 9:07:21 AM | message detail
Is there a reason the poll doesn't update in real-time for the whole poll?
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#47 | Ultimaphazon | Posted 11/7/2011 9:07:49 AM | message detail

From: KamikazePotato | #033
Man. Why isn't Kain here? Cecil/Kain would be winning this.


This. Well, I'm not sure about winning, but the match would certainly be a lot closer
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#48 | Mr3790 | Posted 11/7/2011 9:08:06 AM | message detail
^Server crashes of the past.
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#49 | charmander6000 | Posted 11/7/2011 9:08:19 AM | message detail
Is there a reason the poll doesn't update in real-time for the whole poll?

It gives the illusion to cheater that they aren't doing anything to change the results
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/Rivalry%20BOP.xls
Rivalry Rumble: 6/6 Today: Donkey Kong/King K. Rool & Sub-Zero/Scorpion
#50 | KingBartz | Posted 11/7/2011 9:08:29 AM | message detail
to discourage cheating
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Bracket is 7/8 with today's pick being Red/Blue