GameFAQs Contests

Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1010

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#201 | foxhead84 | Posted 11/4/2011 4:30:23 PM | message detail
Is Mario/Bowser prediction percentage of 98.96% sets a new record.

I've looked at some other match but can seems to find one that beat that
#202 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 11/4/2011 4:42:39 PM | message detail
foxhead84 | Posted 11/4/2011 7:30:23 PM | message detail | quote
Is Mario/Bowser prediction percentage of 98.96% sets a new record.


Nope. There are 2 other matches that managed to beat it. The Legend of Zelda/Adventure had 99.02% back in 2004 and Link/AiAi had 99.12% back in 2003.
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#203 | PartOfYourWorld | Posted 11/4/2011 5:11:18 PM | message detail

From: BlAcK TuRtLe | #195
X/Zero for best match pic so far!


Thank you. I tried to do em justice and just loved the idea of BRO FISTS.
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#204 | creativename | Posted 11/4/2011 6:18:51 PM | message detail

From: AlecTrevelyan006 | #181
An RTS came out already that was apparently terrible, the same company is making an RPG that is apparently going to be pretty terrible.


Interesting. An RTS isn't a bad idea - though with the series not yet done it would be problematic. Something about the Blackfyre Rebellion where you get to choose between Bloodraven and Daemon Blackfyre/Bittersteel could be cool though, since that's the past.

Ice and Fire book SPOILERS

From: smitelf | #182
I don't see how an incestuous child-attempted-murdering villain (anti-hero at best) would win a popularity contest against the smartest, funniest and most likable character in his own series.

...On the other hand, to people who are not familiar with A Song of Ice and Fire (or Game of Thrones), who would be stuck voting purely on appearance...


Well if you look at various polls on the Westeros.org message boards, Jaime is always up near the top in terms of most popular characters, usually about even with Tyrion. Jon, Tyrion, Jaime and Arya are usually the top four in some order from what I've seen. Sandor and Dany are popular too, albeit many like Dany much less after the last book. And Sandor is a cruel murderous jerk - just an honest cruel murderous jerk with a pedophilic crush on Sansa that people apparently find cute :) Tyrion isn't the most noble guy either, he's done some very nasty stuff. Arya is a 12 year old serial killer. Pretty much every major character other than Ned has some shady things.

Thing about Jaime is that he's just so charismatic, and he has some of the best lines in the series. Telling the mother of the 7 year old he paralyzed "I seldom fling children from towers to improve their health", while she has him locked in a dunegon crapping in a bucket - that's some serious lulz :) And of course, "There are no men like me. There's only me." Plus he really does try to redeem himself, even if he knows he won't get credit for it. And bonus points for being called "Kingthlayer" :P

END SPOILERS

From: smitelf | #182George Washington and Abraham Lincoln would do very well in the US vote. And maybe John Lennon?


I don't think any of these would do that well. Lincoln, Elvis, JFK and Martin Luther King were the ones I thought of off the top of my head, but I think it's optimistic to expect them to be even midcarders. I don't see Lennon doing well at all, think he'd be fodder. Someone like Bo Jackson would do a lot better than Lennon.
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#205 | KamikazePotato | Posted 11/4/2011 6:24:36 PM | message detail
Tyrion is by far the best character in the series. Not even close.
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#206 | KamikazePotato | Posted 11/4/2011 6:25:21 PM | message detail
And there's lots of great characters. But Tyrion is the man.
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#207 | HaRRicH | Posted 11/4/2011 6:26:27 PM | message detail
People were expecting too much of Sonic/Robotnik here, and I think comparing it to Mario/Bowser's match was the real problem. Mario > Sonic, Bowser >> Dr. Robotnik, Mario/Bowser have more to gain than Sonic/Robotnik as a team, and the 'atherine-rivalry did several percent/places better in a vote-in BB/Boss won than EWJ's rivalry did in a poll Raiden/Vamp won.

This is still nearly a tripling, so Sonic/Robotnik did what they needed to do.
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#208 | Greyfeld | Posted 11/4/2011 6:27:32 PM | message detail
creativename posted...
I don't think any of these would do that well. Lincoln, Elvis, JFK and Martin Luther King were the ones I thought of off the top of my head, but I think it's optimistic to expect them to be even midcarders. I don't see Lennon doing well at all, think he'd be fodder. Someone like Bo Jackson would do a lot better than Lennon.

When I read the question, the first name that popped into my head was Bill Clinton :P
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#209 | TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 11/4/2011 6:27:52 PM | message detail
X/Zero IS the best match pic. Love the MMX stage one background
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#210 | creativename | Posted 11/4/2011 6:32:32 PM | message detail

From: LOLContests | #185
Which is why I mentioned people overall. I can't see Batman being as popular amongst women as Harry Potter is amongst men.


You'd be mistaken then, Batman movies do well among women, plus as I said that's only talking franchises, not characters. Take a Batman vs. Harry Potter poll at any mainstream site, like Yahoo.com homepage or something, and I can guarantee it would be a total slaughter in Batman's favor. Even if half the voters were women, the men would favor Batman to such a staggering degree that the women couldn't make it up - and I'm skeptical even women would favor Harry Potter the character over Batman. Harry Potter is more of an ensemble cast thing.

From: LOLContests | #185
The first Superman movie from the 70's was just as popular as the most popular Batman movies have been, and Superman Returns grossed just as much as Batman Begins, and the two were only a year apart. Batman might have a shot overall because of TDK, but it would be really close.


This is not true. Both Dark Knight and the 1989 Batman movie adjust to more than the original Superman (much higher in the case of TDK), also only the first two Superman movies have made decent money (Superman Returns was considered a flop, despite equal domestic grosses Batman Begins was considered a success due to much lower budget and much higher DVD sales). Every Batman movie but Batman&Robin has been a financial success. The total adjusted grosses of the Batman franchise blows the Superman franchise totally out of the water. Batman is also levels above Superman in licensed merchandise as well.

Spider-Man is also more popular commercially than Superman, and I'd pick him over Superman on this site too, although that's more arguable.
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#211 | TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 11/4/2011 6:35:24 PM | message detail
Batman > Spider-Man > Wolverine > Superman > other superheroes, I think, in popularity. Wolverine/Superman is debatable.
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#212 | pjbasis | Posted 11/4/2011 6:35:24 PM | message detail
Spider > Super without hesitation.
#213 | ZenOfThunder | Posted 11/4/2011 6:39:36 PM | message detail
I'd take Spider-Man over Superman

I suppose one could argue that "oh man superman is a perfect hero archetype like Link, voters eat that up," but then there's the whole "HE'S FLAWLESS THAT'S BORING" crap you get from casuals, so I dunno if things would like go in some weird direction
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#214 | creativename | Posted 11/4/2011 6:39:40 PM | message detail
Whoa now...I just saw the pic for the Trainers match. Major nostalgia power.

If they get a pic like that with the Pokemon sprites, then I'll regain confidence in them vs. Luigi. Pokemon Gameboy sprites probably have amongst the highest pic influence out there, in terms of performance boosting. Many characters have pictures that would de-boost them from 'normal', but I don't think there are too many who have pictures that would boost them very much beyond normal, like Pokemon sprites probably can.

I'm not sure what their round 1 performance will tell us about them though - with Starcraft II Kerrigan might not be total fodder anymore. Starcraft II did very well right?

From: Greyfeld | #208When I read the question, the first name that popped into my head was Bill Clinton :P


On thinking about it, I think maybe Marilyn Monroe has more potential than those we've mentioned so far.
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#215 | KingButz | Posted 11/4/2011 6:42:17 PM | message detail
Hey guys!

Based on these polls:

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2919
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3836

and extrapolating through Cloud...

Mega Man beats Captain Falcon with about 50.13%!

Since Mega Man > Mega Man X, better go change your battle challenge picks!
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#216 | junk_funk | Posted 11/4/2011 6:47:22 PM | message detail
KingButz posted...
Mega Man beats Captain Falcon with about 50.13%!

Since Mega Man > Mega Man X, better go change your battle challenge picks!


Phew. Thanks for the warning! Done.
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#217 | ZenOfThunder | Posted 11/4/2011 6:49:43 PM | message detail
So Ulti, are you gonna continue doing match pics? If not then I gotta pick up the slack I guess
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#218 | Neosadus | Posted 11/4/2011 6:49:57 PM | message detail
smitelf posted...
...On the other hand, to people who are not familiar with A Song of Ice and Fire (or Game of Thrones), who would be stuck voting purely on appearance...

You underestimate the popularity of dwarves and their appearances. For some reason dr.evil's minime comes to mind. A character that practically doesn't even talk becomes the most talked about. But I digress, book 1-3 it's been Tyrion for sure. Book 4+ it's been Jaime and overall I have to give the slight edge to Jaime at the moment.
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#219 | BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 11/4/2011 6:50:10 PM | message detail
Whoa, how did I totally forget about that Cloud match.

Maybe 70% for X/Zero is a tad high <_<
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#220 | AlecTrevelyan006 | Posted 11/4/2011 6:53:45 PM | message detail
Tyrion may be the most popular.

Definitely not my favorite. Go Jaime SWAGister.
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#221 | AlecTrevelyan006 | Posted 11/4/2011 6:53:57 PM | message detail
#222 | ZenOfThunder | Posted 11/4/2011 6:54:54 PM | message detail
would Tyrion even have the rallying power to get into a contest?

also, we're gonna run into the problem of finding good images. What if Bacon decides that the only art could be from their games?

Does Tyrion even have any art from Game of Thrones: Genesis?
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#223 | creativename | Posted 11/4/2011 6:58:28 PM | message detail

From: Neosadus | #218But I digress, book 1-3 it's been Tyrion for sure. Book 4+ it's been Jaime and overall I have to give the slight edge to Jaime at the moment.


Book 3 is when Jaime steals the show actually.

From: ZenOfThunder | #222
would Tyrion even have the rallying power to get into a contest?

also, we're gonna run into the problem of finding good images. What if Bacon decides that the only art could be from their games?

Does Tyrion even have any art from Game of Thrones: Genesis?


I don't think we're seriously talking about in gamefaqs contest terms. Both characters would be complete fodder and not worthy of making the contest in terms of strength. There's gotta be dozens of Star Wars and X-Men characters stronger than both the Lannister siblings.
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#224 | ZenOfThunder | Posted 11/4/2011 7:00:03 PM | message detail
yeah, I guess you're right

I wouldn't be surprised if we got him in anyway. remember how much fodder was in 2K2? f***ing Serious Sam, Mr. Driller and Ulala
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#225 | Neosadus | Posted 11/4/2011 7:02:44 PM | message detail
creativename posted...
Book 3 is when Jaime steals the show actually.

Meh. I didn't start enjoying Jaime until book 4. But it might be because book 3 had so much other awesomeness going for it that I just overlooked the starting of his character arc.
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#226 | smitelf | Posted 11/4/2011 7:08:35 PM | message detail | (edited)

From: creativename | #204
I don't think any of these would do that well. Lincoln, Elvis, JFK and Martin Luther King were the ones I thought of off the top of my head, but I think it's optimistic to expect them to be even midcarders. I don't see Lennon doing well at all, think he'd be fodder. Someone like Bo Jackson would do a lot better than Lennon.


I don't think Bo Jackson would beat Lennon. Lennon has worldwide recognition and appeal; Bo Jackson is known only by people who care at least slightly about American sports, which excludes all of Europe. And the 99% brand penetration and general admiration for some of America's old time political figures would bump them above mid-card status.

A SONG OF ICE AND FIRE SPOILERS!!




From: creativename | #204
Well if you look at various polls on the Westeros.org message boards, Jaime is always up near the top in terms of most popular characters, usually about even with Tyrion. Jon, Tyrion, Jaime and Arya are usually the top four in some order from what I've seen.


Tyrion is more univerally liked than Jaime. If they were the only two options in a poll, I'm confident that Tyrion would come out on top comfortably, like 60/40 minimum.

From: creativename | #204
Thing about Jaime is that he's just so charismatic, and he has some of the best lines in the series. Telling the mother of the 7 year old he paralyzed "I seldom fling children from towers to improve their health", while she has him locked in a dunegon crapping in a bucket - that's some serious lulz :) And of course, "There are no men like me. There's only me."


Tyrion has many lines that are at least as good as these. I don't even find the one about flinging children to be clever. It's Exhibit A for why Tyrion would beat Jaime. A character who flings a kid off a building (because the kid caught him in flagrante delicto with his own sister) and basically flips the bird to the kid's mom can't expect to win a popularity contest. Especially when that is his first impression.

Meanwhile, the first impression Tyrion makes in the Game of Thrones show is sex with busty women and smacking Joffrey. As you said, they are very different characters, and I think it's hard to argue against Tyrion being designed as more likable.
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#227 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 11/4/2011 7:08:34 PM | message detail
creativename | Posted 11/4/2011 9:39:40 PM | message detail | quote
I'm not sure what their round 1 performance will tell us about them though - with Starcraft II Kerrigan might not be total fodder anymore. Starcraft II did very well right?


http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=4217

It came in 4th place in that poll and nearly beat out God of War 3 to make it to the 3-way GotY final. And then there's this poll:

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=4218

God of War 3 performed decently back in third place. Starcraft II would have put up similar numbers in the 3-way poll if it managed to get by God of War 3.
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#228 | ZenOfThunder | Posted 11/4/2011 7:15:05 PM | message detail
people seem to know who kerrigan is more than before. a lot of the geeks/nerds on my campus (not that I'm not one of them) have been on starcraft II binges since it came out, and they all talk about how much they like the campaign and jim raynor and kerrigan

so the backing is definitely there somewhere, it's all a question of whether or not these people come to this site still
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#229 | smitelf | Posted 11/4/2011 7:18:53 PM | message detail

From: creativename | #210
You'd be mistaken then, Batman movies do well among women, plus as I said that's only talking franchises, not characters. Take a Batman vs. Harry Potter poll at any mainstream site, like Yahoo.com homepage or something, and I can guarantee it would be a total slaughter in Batman's favor. Even if half the voters were women, the men would favor Batman to such a staggering degree that the women couldn't make it up - and I'm skeptical even women would favor Harry Potter the character over Batman. Harry Potter is more of an ensemble cast thing.


I'm inclined to agree when you put it like that. Purely anecdotally, none of my girlfriends would vote for Harry Potter over Batman. And I've been a rabid Batman fan since the age of six, so he got his claws into me much earlier than Harry did.
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#230 | charmander6000 | Posted 11/4/2011 7:24:30 PM | message detail
Match V: (1) Mega Man X/Zero vs. (8) Captain Falcon/Black Shadow

Previous Contest

Mega Man X – 2010
65.72% against Captain John Price
61.16% against Pokemon Trainer Red
32.72% against Link

Zero – 2010
67.17% against Marcus Fenix
43.31% against Auron

Captain Falcon – 2010
71.17% against Wander
52.48% against Riku
30.07% against Cloud Strike

Black Shadow – N/A
N/A

Analysis

It’s a shame that Mega Man X and Zero got such a predictable path this contest. Based on individual strength they are one of the strongest pairs in the contest and they have a great rivalry going on. The pair could have been in some unpredictable matches, but they pretty much have three easy wins before having no chance in the quarterfinals.

As impressive as Captain Falcon was last contest he would still have had no chance against Mega Man X or Zero alone and with Black Shadow not bringing much to the table combining Mega Man X and Zero could lead to quite the crushing. Captain Falcon and Black Shadow had a terrible performance in the vote-ins where they had one of the lowest percent of the pairs that made the contest.

This match is the first that will give us an indication of rivalry factor in this contest. Everything is lining up well for people to take the name of the contest more literally. We have a well-known decent rivalry going up against a character that is known, but more liked in another series where his partner is nowhere to be seen except in trophy form. It isn’t exactly hard to see Smash Captain Falcon fans switching to Mega Man X and Zero due to the wording of the contest. We could see the pair put up Cloud like numbers on Falcon and Shadow.

charmander6000’s Bracket: Mega Man X/Zero > Captain Falcon/Black Shadow

charmander6000’s Prediction: Mega Man X/Zero wins, 68.74% - 31.26%
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#231 | KingButz | Posted 11/4/2011 7:24:44 PM | message detail

From: BlAcK TuRtLe | #219
Whoa, how did I totally forget about that Cloud match.

Maybe 70% for X/Zero is a tad high <_<


I have 68% because of RIVALRY FACTOR pretty much, but I still think that's on the high end.

Most people have mid 70's picks though. I don't understand why.
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#232 | XIII_rocks | Posted 11/4/2011 7:29:50 PM | message detail
#233 | FateStayAlbion | Posted 11/4/2011 7:40:30 PM | message detail
70-72% is about the range I'm expecting, though I think more highly of this X duo than most do. I think they could challenge for 4th strongest duo in the contest.
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#234 | junk_funk | Posted 11/4/2011 7:45:35 PM | message detail
FateStayAlbion posted...
70-72% is about the range I'm expecting, though I think more highly of this X duo than most do. I think they could challenge for 4th strongest duo in the contest.

Agreed. Zero and X make a great team. Each would probably 63-65% Falcon individually.

I wasn't aware that Falcon even had a rival. Have no clue who he is. Counting on the "rivalry factor" and the "two greats against one mediocre" to push this to 70-72.
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#235 | charmander6000 | Posted 11/4/2011 8:03:12 PM | message detail
Yeah MMX and Zero would have a decent chance at breaking 60% on Falcon, add that most of Falcon fans don't even know of Shadow let alone like him and MMX/Zero being a good rival should add up to a blowout win.
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#236 | BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 11/4/2011 8:08:24 PM | message detail
Then again, Crono also got 75% on Falcon in 2006.
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#237 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 11/4/2011 8:09:59 PM | message detail
Falcon was probably weaker in 2006 than he is right now (thanks to Brawl).
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#238 | LeonhartFour | Posted 11/4/2011 8:14:52 PM | message detail
Man, if Bartz/Gilgamesh weren't facing Guybrush/LeChuck, I'd be worried after seeing their picture.
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#239 | PartOfYourWorld | Posted 11/4/2011 8:22:09 PM | message detail
Falcon's partner is pretty invisible in Smash Bros., and Falcon himself is waaaaay weaker than Kirby and comes from an even weaker series. Also, Smash won't even mean as much for him since X and Zero are









NINTENDO CHARACTERS. I SAID IT, IT FEELS SO GOOD TO SAY IT
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#240 | Greyfeld | Posted 11/4/2011 8:24:57 PM | message detail
I don't think X/Zero is going to break 70%. As great of a rivalry as they are (I'm just assuming based on hearsay, I haven't played a megaman game since I was like 8), I just feel like it's one of those rivalries where "the people that will vote for them are the same people that would already vote for X or Zero individually."

I could be wrong, but that's just how I feel about it.
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#241 | PartOfYourWorld | Posted 11/4/2011 8:29:53 PM | message detail
If they can't break 70% here, I'll probably blow a gasket. Falcon isn't even getting a day vote.
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#242 | pjbasis | Posted 11/4/2011 8:30:50 PM | message detail
If they don't break 70, then rivalries doesn't matter.
#243 | Greyfeld | Posted 11/4/2011 8:32:00 PM | message detail
pjbasis posted...
If they don't break 70, then rivalries doesn't matter.

I wouldn't say that.
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#244 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 11/4/2011 8:34:21 PM | message detail
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 11/4/2011 11:29:53 PM | message detail | quote
If they can't break 70% here, I'll probably blow a gasket. Falcon isn't even getting a day vote.


This is a weekend match, so they'll get a day vote in the morning.
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#245 | BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 11/4/2011 8:38:28 PM | message detail
Over/Under: X and Zero at 75% after the first hour
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#246 | LeonhartFour | Posted 11/4/2011 8:40:46 PM | message detail

From: pjbasis | #242
If they don't break 70, then rivalries doesn't matter.


This is dumb reasoning.

Captain Falcon is stronger than he used to be. He broke 30% on Cloud, mind you.

X/Zero could certainly break 70% on Captain Falcon/Black Shadow since Black Shadow is basically dead weight, but it's not the end of the world if they don't. Neither entity is very strong in Europe, so don't expect X/Zero to go crazy because it's a night match.
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#247 | PartOfYourWorld | Posted 11/4/2011 8:45:10 PM | message detail
I think my Oracle is 75%. I'm hoping that Zero gives X a much more appealing edge than whatever Robotnik brings to his team (I can't imagine Sonic/Knux not doing better here). Also, even apart from Black Shadow's worthlessness and the lack of any F-Zero strength, Falcon's team doesn't even contrast with X/Zero that much. It's not like RPG characters against Nintendo or K/Catherine against Sonic.
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#248 | charmander6000 | Posted 11/4/2011 8:45:49 PM | message detail
If anything Falcon should get the European vote because Europe (UK) hates the series.
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#249 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 11/4/2011 8:49:18 PM | message detail
It's only the UK that hates the series.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3733&region=EUR

Despite Mega Man X doing poorly in Europe, he still wins a huge majority of the European countries.
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#250 | charmander6000 | Posted 11/4/2011 8:51:05 PM | message detail
But when the UK supplies almost 50% of the votes it pretty much becomes Europe.
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