GameFAQs Contests

Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1010

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#101 | abdou | Posted 11/4/2011 9:10:24 AM | message detail
lol sonic
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....
#102 | GrapefruitKing | Posted 11/4/2011 9:10:32 AM | message detail
well
that doesn't make much sense
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Today's Prediction: Sonic/Robotnik with 79.1%
#103 | FateStayAlbion | Posted 11/4/2011 9:10:37 AM | message detail
#104 | KamikazePotato | Posted 11/4/2011 9:10:46 AM | message detail
Did Katherine really lose the board vote. You guys suck.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#105 | transcience | Posted 11/4/2011 9:10:50 AM | message detail
Sonic wins everything but the early vote. Kirby's just got crazy joke trends that causes him to collapse after the beginning. he's like Mega Man.
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add the c and back away
iphonesience
#106 | Greyfeld | Posted 11/4/2011 9:11:23 AM | message detail
I think the real question is:

Why are there 90 people that managed to get the last two rounds correctly in the Battle contest, yet somehow managed to convince themselves that Earthworm Jim was going to beat Mario?
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#107 | __Smurf__ | Posted 11/4/2011 9:12:38 AM | message detail
Kirby was down to 46% on the 5 minute mark 1v1 last year, unless you think Meta-Knight is going to have some sort of weird significance and appeal to people outside Kirbys usual mainly Smash based audience I don't see how he'd do any better.
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#108 | TRE Public Account | Posted 11/4/2011 9:12:43 AM | message detail
Score-Brackets-% Right
2--------9799------72.70
1--------5649------64.61
0--------104--------23.08

The perfects do a fair bit better than the non-perfects but the 0s do best assuming they are aiming for 0. There are only 80 zero bracket attempts left, though.

6 people fell off the Top 50 this time. OllyOllyOxnFree, Delseban, Pokefear, XIII_socks, CHRIIIIIIIIIIIS and khaq_fu didn't have Kirby vs. Meta Knight winning.
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#109 | UltimaterializerX | Posted 11/4/2011 9:13:13 AM | message detail
Yeah Sonic is fine next round.
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#110 | red sox 777 | Posted 11/4/2011 9:13:27 AM | message detail
Kirby, Megaman, and Crono all have similar trends over the first 12 hours, with the collapse from greatest to least going Kirby > Megaman > Crono, but in the second 12 hours, Kirby goes back up fast with the ASV, Megaman rises very slowly, and Crono continues to fall (fast).
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90s games > 00s games
#111 | Ultimaphazon | Posted 11/4/2011 9:15:38 AM | message detail
6 people fell off the Top 50 this time. OllyOllyOxnFree, Delseban, Pokefear, XIII_socks, CHRIIIIIIIIIIIS and khaq_fu didn't have Kirby vs. Meta Knight winning.

Damn, that sucks. Those were brilliant accounts.
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#112 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 11/4/2011 9:18:10 AM | message detail
69.43% prediction percentage for Kirby/Meta Knight.
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#113 | Safer Sephiroth 777 | Posted 11/4/2011 9:19:22 AM | message detail
Tre Public could you do another topic that has the participants from B8 and also mention who goes up and down in the leaderboard?Also around 15.000 brackets...Is this the lowest ever?
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#114 | WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 11/4/2011 9:21:07 AM | message detail
Sonic flying up now. We're gonna be 2-for-2 for vote-in teams looking bad before too long.
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#115 | TRE Public Account | Posted 11/4/2011 9:21:39 AM | message detail
Tre Public could you do another topic that has the participants from B8 and also mention who goes up and down in the leaderboard?Also around 15.000 brackets...Is this the lowest ever?

Menji76 already does something pretty similar to that:
http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/60875254
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#116 | FateStayAlbion | Posted 11/4/2011 9:23:10 AM | message detail
Maybe some Persona fansite linked the match or something which caused that weird 2nd update.
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#117 | Oxbridge | Posted 11/4/2011 9:24:47 AM | message detail
wait, new poll already?

it's only 4 PM, don't they start at 5 (UK Time)?
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#118 | ShatteredElysium | Posted 11/4/2011 9:26:31 AM | message detail
UK changes DST a week earlier than the states
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#119 | TheOneAboveAll | Posted 11/4/2011 9:27:03 AM | message detail
They will starting Sunday. We haven't changed the clocks for daylight savings time yet.

Which reminds me, Donkey Kong/Ezio will only be an 11-hour poll. That helps DK more, no?
#120 | TRE Public Account | Posted 11/4/2011 9:27:43 AM | message detail
Maybe some Persona fansite linked the match or something which caused that weird 2nd update.

It looks like it was more Sonic having a bad update that time rather than Katherine having a particularly good one. Sonic got a lot more votes in the 0:10-0:15 update than the 0:05-0:10 update.
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#121 | ctesjbuvf | Posted 11/4/2011 9:33:39 AM | message detail
Damn annoying that I had somehow forgot to make the Battle Entry, so had no pick the first three matches, but I definetely remember filling it out. Forget to save, I guess. I care much more about the Bracket Challenge anyways.
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#122 | transcience | Posted 11/4/2011 9:38:57 AM | message detail
the :10 update has always been more board vote.
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add the c and back away
iphonesience
#123 | Safer Sephiroth 777 | Posted 11/4/2011 9:41:43 AM | message detail
I saw the other topic.Nice.
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#124 | BK_Sheikah00 | Posted 11/4/2011 9:46:12 AM | message detail | (edited)
I don't get why Sonic/Kirby is even debated. Just compare the hype there was for Sonic Generations hype with Return to Dream Land hype. Even if Sonic got weaker and his games dropped in quality, people have still not given up on him. Pretty much nobody cares for Kirby's games and his strength is mostly from Smash, which know also features Sonic.
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#125 | HaRRicH | Posted 11/4/2011 9:47:23 AM | message detail
Jill recovered quite well...good for her and Nemesis, I guess.

Sonic/Robotnik look well enough next round once they get outside of the opening minutes. Any advantage Meta Knight has over Dr. Robotnik individually, I think Sonic/Robotnik can make back up with the storied history of their rivalry...and we've already seen Sonic 55/45 Kirby. Throw in Sonic Generations just coming out (and looks to be bigger for Sonic than Kirby's Epic Yarn was for Kirby last year), and they look alright to survive before considering the poll-results from today.

Kirby/MK impressed against Jill/Nemesis, but a valid point's been brought up: if RE1/RE2 are so weak here, why would a rivalry distinctly from RE3 -- which never made a contest here -- help make Jill/Nemesis's dynamic get much recognition here? I want to see more from Nintendo-teams before I give Kirby/MK more credit. Meanwhile, this is a pretty expected performance from Sonic/Robotnik.
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#126 | Greyfeld | Posted 11/4/2011 9:47:24 AM | message detail
BK_Sheikah00 posted...
I don't get why Sonic/Kirby is even debated. Just compare the hype there was for Sonic Generations with Return to Dream Land. Even if Sonic got weaker and his games dropped in quality, people have still not given up on him. Pretty much nobody cares for Kirby's games and his strength is mostly from Smash, which know also features Sonic.

Kirby's been in SSB games a lot longer than sonic has, and MK is also in Brawl.

In the end, it's just a matter of whether or not you think the difference between what MK brings to the table, and what Robotnik brings to the table makes up that 5% gap that showed up in 2010's Kirby/Sonic matchup.
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#127 | FateStayAlbion | Posted 11/4/2011 9:51:55 AM | message detail
BK_Sheikah00 posted...
I don't get why Sonic/Kirby is even debated. Just compare the hype there was for Sonic Generations hype with Return to Dream Land hype. Even if Sonic got weaker and his games dropped in quality, people have still not given up on him. Pretty much nobody cares for Kirby's games and his strength is mostly from Smash, which know also features Sonic.

The Sonic Generations hype was mainly just B8. Not many people cared outside of here. If anything, if you look at the percentage both got on Battlefield 3 and Modern Warfare 3, Kirby might have been more anticipated:

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=4454

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=4476
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=4507

Assuming BF3 and MW3 are about equal strength. Kinda weird way to look at it, but basically I don't think Generations was much more hyped if at all.
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#128 | KingButz | Posted 11/4/2011 10:24:39 AM | message detail | (edited)

From: FateStayAlbion | #127
BK_Sheikah00 posted...
I don't get why Sonic/Kirby is even debated. Just compare the hype there was for Sonic Generations hype with Return to Dream Land hype. Even if Sonic got weaker and his games dropped in quality, people have still not given up on him. Pretty much nobody cares for Kirby's games and his strength is mostly from Smash, which know also features Sonic.

The Sonic Generations hype was mainly just B8. Not many people cared outside of here. If anything, if you look at the percentage both got on Battlefield 3 and Modern Warfare 3, Kirby might have been more anticipated:

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=4454

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=4476
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=4507

Assuming BF3 and MW3 are about equal strength. Kinda weird way to look at it, but basically I don't think Generations was much more hyped if at all.


Don't know how fair it is to compare those polls. Sonic had much much stronger contenders in his poll.

Also, dammit Sonic you piece of s***. There is certainly egg(man) on my face right now.
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#129 | TheCodeisBosco | Posted 11/4/2011 10:59:23 AM | message detail
(looks at Sonic tripling C/Katherine)

(looks at how much ground Kirby lost last night)

Yeah, the upset hype was 100% for naught. Sonic should win by a fair margin.
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#130 | Kotetsu534 | Posted 11/4/2011 11:04:15 AM | message detail
So about that 80%...!
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#131 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 11/4/2011 11:11:05 AM | message detail
80% just wasn't happening. I didn't fall for all of those Oracle predictions going for high 70s and low 80s. I knew the Oracle guys were off on that match, so I stayed below 75%. Sonic is no Mario when it comes to doing blowouts. Sonic's only 80% blowouts were against Pitfall Harry, Terry Bogard, and CATS. And I've always considered Katherine/Catherine to be stronger than Earthworm Jim, so that played a role in going under 75% on this page and Katherine/Catherine could also overperform because the game has been out for about 3 months in the US.
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#132 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 11/4/2011 11:29:09 AM | message detail
An early sign of the ASV to come? Kind of weird that it's kicking in before 2:30 PM. Sonic's gained 0.23% in the past 10 minutes.
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#133 | KingButz | Posted 11/4/2011 11:48:29 AM | message detail

From: -LusterSoldier- | #132
An early sign of the ASV to come? Kind of weird that it's kicking in before 2:30 PM. Sonic's gained 0.23% in the past 10 minutes.


He's been bouncing between 74.2 and 72.5% for the last hour.
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#134 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 11/4/2011 11:51:15 AM | message detail
Maybe that was an early hiccup for Sonic, because now he's going down with the ASV, although it's not in full force just yet.
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Popular at school, but not as cool as BlAcK TuRtLe, Guru Champ!
#135 | IngmarBirdman | Posted 11/4/2011 11:54:54 AM | message detail
How was Sonic supposed to score 80% on chicks from a recent and well-received game when he doesn't come close on a nobody from Tekken?

Maybe if it was Earthworm Jim...
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#136 | Greyfeld | Posted 11/4/2011 11:56:59 AM | message detail
IngmarBirdman posted...
How was Sonic supposed to score 80% on chicks from a recent and well-received game when he doesn't come close on a nobody from Tekken?

Maybe if it was Earthworm Jim...


Define "well-received."

Even for an Atlus game, Catherine has a pretty low playrate.
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#137 | KamikazePotato | Posted 11/4/2011 12:03:00 PM | message detail
Catherine is one of Atlus' bestselling games, if not it's bestselling, and is the only game so far to get a rep in a character contest. I have no idea what you're talking about.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#138 | FateStayAlbion | Posted 11/4/2011 12:08:23 PM | message detail | (edited)
KamikazePotato posted...
Catherine is one of Atlus' bestselling games, if not it's bestselling, and is the only game so far to get a rep in a character contest. I have no idea what you're talking about.

It sold less than Persona 4, and do you really think any Persona 4 character wouldn't be total junk here? This is mainly Sonic anti-votes, since he's immune to major blowouts.

Also, it seems like Sonic is losing the ASV to a cult anime game. Wonderful.
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#139 | KamikazePotato | Posted 11/4/2011 12:10:41 PM | message detail
http://ps3.ign.com/articles/118/1185654p1.html

A week after its release, Catherine has already become Atlus' biggest launch title ever. The game has shipped the most units at launch of any Atlus game in the company's history.

I can't find it, but there was an article semi-recently that stated that it had actually sold that much since then instead of just shipped. Not as much as P4's lifetime sales, but much faster in the same timeframe, and Catherine got significantly more press coverage than any Persona game ever did. Still fodder, yeah, but saying it's 'niche even for Atlus' is flat out wrong.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#140 | TRE Public Account | Posted 11/4/2011 12:13:19 PM | message detail
http://www.destructoid.com/how-persona-4-fared-when-it-comes-to-sales-151145.phtml

I'm not sure how accurate that is but that says only 110,000 for Persona 4 in North America as of late 2009. Did something happen since then for P4 to suddenly break 200,000?
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#141 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 11/4/2011 12:13:53 PM | message detail
From what we saw in last year's contest, the newer game in a series always has the better ASV. KHII dominated KH with the ASV, and the same happened with Halo 3/Halo 1 and also Melee/Brawl. This theory could be extended to characters that rely heavily on old school games for most of their strength, and Sonic could be one of those characters. The newer Sonic games would be expected to have a better ASV than the Genesis games, but because the newer games suck, Sonic has to draw his strength from the Genesis games.
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#142 | Greyfeld | Posted 11/4/2011 12:13:59 PM | message detail
lol i don't take anything from IGN seriously.
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#143 | TRE Public Account | Posted 11/4/2011 12:16:35 PM | message detail
https://twitter.com/#!/AtlusUSA/status/99153805672845312

That's also shows 200,000 solid in the first week if you don't want to trust IGN.
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#144 | KamikazePotato | Posted 11/4/2011 12:19:00 PM | message detail
http://andriasang.com/comyog/

As of October 19th, 230k outside of Japan.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#145 | FateStayAlbion | Posted 11/4/2011 12:24:05 PM | message detail | (edited)
TRE Public Account posted...
http://www.destructoid.com/how-persona-4-fared-when-it-comes-to-sales-151145.phtml

I'm not sure how accurate that is but that says only 110,000 for Persona 4 in North America as of late 2009. Did something happen since then for P4 to suddenly break 200,000?


http://gamrreview.vgchartz.com/sales-data/24780/shin-megami-tensei-persona-4/

I was going by this, which puts NA sales at 350k. It sold 110k in NA in 2 weeks.

Combining the two versions of Catherine on the same site, it gives 250k in NA.
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#146 | Kotetsu534 | Posted 11/4/2011 12:22:20 PM | message detail
http://www.thegamerspulse.com/wordpress/?p=5263

Catherine sales:
230k NA + Europe
260k Japan

Can't find any source as to how much P4 sold in Europe, but I doubt the figure would be more than a few tens of thousands. Quite clear that Catherine is bigger than P4 outside Japan.
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#147 | Greyfeld | Posted 11/4/2011 12:22:26 PM | message detail
Well, I stand corrected.

Maybe I just heard how boring the puzzle elements were and extrapolated from there.
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#148 | TRE Public Account | Posted 11/4/2011 12:25:55 PM | message detail
http://gamrreview.vgchartz.com/sales-data/24780/shin-megami-tensei-persona-4/

I was going by this, which puts NA sales at 350k. It sold 110k in NA in 2 weeks.


That has to be way off. The 110,000 in 8 months number comes from an Atlas financial report and should be accurate.
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#149 | LeonhartFour | Posted 11/4/2011 12:27:35 PM | message detail
Are we really debating about whether 75% is good for Sonic/Robotnik?

It's fine. Sonic/Robotnik isn't on Mario/Bowser's tier and probably isn't that close, and Katherine/Catherine would probably beat Jim/Queen.

There's nothing wrong with this performance.
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#150 | Greyfeld | Posted 11/4/2011 12:29:22 PM | message detail
LeonhartFour posted...
Are we really debating about whether 75% is good for Sonic/Robotnik?

It's fine. Sonic/Robotnik isn't on Mario/Bowser's tier and probably isn't that close, and Katherine/Catherine would probably beat Jim/Queen.

There's nothing wrong with this performance.


I think we're trying to figure out whether he should have be getting 80%, and why he's not winning the ASV against a niche Atlus title.
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