GameFAQs Contests

Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1010

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#451 | charmander6000 | Posted 11/5/2011 7:00:35 AM | message detail
Match VI: (4) Guybrush Threepwood/LeChuck vs. (5) Bartz Klauser/Gilgamesh

Previous Contest

Guybrush Threepwood – 2010
22.56% against Vincent Valentine

LeChuck – N/A
N/A

Bartz Klauser – N/A
N/A

Gilgamesh – N/A
N/A

Analysis

You thought Laharl/Neku was bad last contest this sets a whole new level of weak in a contest setting. I guess this would be Guybrush’s best chance at winning a match since 2002, but most people aren’t biting the upset. While Bartz is a Final Fantasy character Final Fantasy V is often considered one of the least played games of the series, so much that it may not be a factor.

The whole reason the pair is in the contest is for Gilgamesh. I never understood why the board thought Gilgamesh has much strength. Sure the guy has made multiple appearances over the series, but none of them have been huge ones, mostly boss fights. Even the boss fights itself aren’t that memorable. I feel that most recurring characters or creatures from the Final Fantasy series will be stronger than Gilgamesh.

Bartz being in Dissidia is probably the main factor that he wins this match. We saw what Dissidia did to Cecil, Terra, Kefka and possibly Zidane and given the type of characters he’s against just being more recognizable in the poll will be enough to get support. With that said, however Guybrush does get the advantage of being a contest vet and to anyone following the contest the last couple of years may also recognize him thus leading to some apathy votes his way.

Given the lower vote totals in this contest this match should easily set a new record low for a day match and honestly it could be in danger of losing to a couple of night matches once this round is over. This will likely be one of those normal easy wins types of match, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Bartz and Gilgamesh flew over 60% with ease give the opponents.

charmander6000’s Bracket: Bartz Klauser/Gilgamesh > Guybrush Threepwood/LeChuck

charmander6000’s Prediction: Bartz/Klauser wins, 58.95% - 41.05%
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/Rivalry%20BOP.xls
Rival Rumble: 4/4 Today: MMX/Zero & Bartz/Gilgamesh
#452 | TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 11/5/2011 7:53:01 AM | message detail

From: charmander6000 | #451
Bartz/Klauser


lol
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#453 | Ultimaphazon | Posted 11/5/2011 8:20:42 AM | message detail
Stats topic is gonna be get very ugly in 40 minutes.

Prepare for 12 hours of:
Users A:Guybrush sucks.
User B: Why do people still nominate their favorite characters even though they are weak?
User C: It's fun just seeing your favorite characters in a match
User D: No, it isn't. You're dumb

etc.

Seriously, the stats topic was painful during Vincent/Guybrush last year.
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Support Bahamut if we ever get another real contest.
#454 | Kotetsu534 | Posted 11/5/2011 8:23:41 AM | message detail
The first debated match of the contest is coming straight afterward so discussion should turn to it pretty quickly, at least.
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#455 | AlecTrevelyan006 | Posted 11/5/2011 8:28:38 AM | message detail

From: Ultimaphazon | #453
Stats topic is gonna be get very ugly in 40 minutes.

Prepare for 12 hours of:
Users A:Guybrush sucks.
User B: Why do people still nominate their favorite characters even though they are weak?
User C: It's fun just seeing your favorite characters in a match
User D: No, it isn't. You're dumb

etc.

Seriously, the stats topic was painful during Vincent/Guybrush last year.


They troll like dairy farmers.
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#456 | ZenOfThunder | Posted 11/5/2011 8:29:46 AM | message detail
i love guybrush day

it just happens to fall on guy fawkes day, too

I dunno what that has to do with anything. maybe guybrush will pull an upset and destroy parliment?
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~Zen
#457 | ffmasterjose | Posted 11/5/2011 8:36:50 AM | message detail
C'mon Butz!
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4/4 pts - GameFAQs' Rivalry Rumble
NP: Mega Man X/Zero > Captain Falcon/Shadow | Bartz/Gilgamesh > Guybrush/LeChuck
#458 | ZenOfThunder | Posted 11/5/2011 8:38:00 AM | message detail
BUTZ BUTZ BUTZ BUTZ

GIRUGAMESH!
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~Zen
#459 | AlecTrevelyan006 | Posted 11/5/2011 8:51:57 AM | message detail
#460 | junk_funk | Posted 11/5/2011 8:54:44 AM | message detail
First match under 30,000 folks.
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Pobody's nerfect.
#461 | abdou | Posted 11/5/2011 8:55:50 AM | message detail
The votals for this next match will be hilarious. I wonder if we will even get 25k
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....
#462 | GrapefruitKing | Posted 11/5/2011 8:56:48 AM | message detail
first match under 10000
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~ Rivalry Rumble Oracle Challenge ~ Rank - 55th
Today's Prediction: X/Zero - 70.54%
#463 | TheCodeisBosco | Posted 11/5/2011 8:57:32 AM | message detail
MMX/ZERO ARE STILL ABOVE 80

WHAT
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THESE PEOPLE ARE AWESOME: yellow, Enoch, GTM,
MI, Frisby, Mycro, speed, monster, Ermine, Wizards, j_f, bigwig, SomeC
#464 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 11/5/2011 8:59:18 AM | message detail
Guybrush avoided the tripling on Vincent last time. Legit powerhouse now.

Bartz is so screwed.
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Current Let's Play: Final Fantasy IV (FF2US)
http://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3445328
#465 | SuperAngelo128 | Posted 11/5/2011 8:59:24 AM | message detail
SFF I tell you
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#466 | charmander6000 | Posted 11/5/2011 8:59:51 AM | message detail
Guybrush was tripled last year.
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/Rivalry%20BOP.xls
Rival Rumble: 4/4 Today: MMX/Zero & Bartz/Gilgamesh
#467 | Master Moltar | Posted 11/5/2011 9:00:09 AM | message detail
Guybrush Threepwood vs. LeChuck 0%

0
Bartz Klauser vs. Gilgamesh 100%

6
TOTAL VOTES 6
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Moltar Status: Bracket: X/Zero (4/4)
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/
#468 | MeteorExF | Posted 11/5/2011 9:00:24 AM | message detail
Guybrush Threepwood vs. LeChuck 0% 0
Bartz Klauser vs. Gilgamesh 100% 9
TOTAL VOTES 9
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If we hit that bullseye, the rest of the dominos will fall like a house of cards. Checkmate. - Zapp Brannigan
#469 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 11/5/2011 9:00:25 AM | message detail
That board vote.
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Current Let's Play: Final Fantasy IV (FF2US)
http://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3445328
#470 | FateStayAlbion | Posted 11/5/2011 9:00:45 AM | message detail
#471 | charmander6000 | Posted 11/5/2011 9:00:51 AM | message detail
XD Barts/Gilgamesh over 80% when I voted.

Bracket voting anyone?
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/Rivalry%20BOP.xls
Rival Rumble: 4/4 Today: MMX/Zero & Bartz/Gilgamesh
#472 | abdou | Posted 11/5/2011 9:01:30 AM | message detail
XD Guybrush Getting owned by..BUTZ
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....
#473 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 11/5/2011 9:01:34 AM | message detail
Bartz... isn't building a lead...

...Oh God.
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Current Let's Play: Final Fantasy IV (FF2US)
http://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3445328
#474 | TheCodeisBosco | Posted 11/5/2011 9:02:03 AM | message detail
The board votes this year have been the absolute worst. Seriously.
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THESE PEOPLE ARE AWESOME: yellow, Enoch, GTM,
MI, Frisby, Mycro, speed, monster, Ermine, Wizards, j_f, bigwig, SomeC
#475 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 11/5/2011 9:03:06 AM | message detail
Probably going to settle to 60/40 territory. At any rate, this match has lost its novelty, other than Bartz winning more matches than a dozen FF characters.
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Current Let's Play: Final Fantasy IV (FF2US)
http://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3445328
#476 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 11/5/2011 9:04:04 AM | message detail
This match seems to be stabilizing around 66%.
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#477 | charmander6000 | Posted 11/5/2011 9:04:13 AM | message detail
Better continue the tradition...

So why do people keep nominating Guybrush?
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/Rivalry%20BOP.xls
Rival Rumble: 4/4 Today: MMX/Zero & Bartz/Gilgamesh
#478 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 11/5/2011 9:04:33 AM | message detail
...Or maybe Bartz will go for the doubling. Sure.

LeChuck is clearly a powerhouse. If he weren't there, Bartz/Gilgamesh would be tripling Guybrush, since they're clearly at Vincent's level.
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Current Let's Play: Final Fantasy IV (FF2US)
http://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3445328
#479 | BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 11/5/2011 9:04:48 AM | message detail
Hmmm, so if X/Zero got 80% on Falcon/Shadow, will they break 80% next round too? That much should help determine how legit last night was.
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#480 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 11/5/2011 9:05:03 AM | message detail
Blame the Europeans for nominating Guybrush, because he's always done well in Europe in every contest match he's had.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as BlAcK TuRtLe, Guru Champ!
#481 | FateStayAlbion | Posted 11/5/2011 9:05:56 AM | message detail
#482 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 11/5/2011 9:06:04 AM | message detail

From: BlAcK TuRtLe | #479
Hmmm, so if X/Zero got 80% on Falcon/Shadow, will they break 80% next round too? That much should help determine how legit last night was.


I wouldn't be surprised if X/Zero actually did better on Bartz/Gilgamesh than Falcon/Whoever.
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Current Let's Play: Final Fantasy IV (FF2US)
http://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3445328
#483 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 11/5/2011 9:07:59 AM | message detail
Only 428 votes at the freeze despite this being a weekend match. That's even worse than the Conker match which had 468 votes at the freeze.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as BlAcK TuRtLe, Guru Champ!
#484 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 11/5/2011 9:10:32 AM | message detail | (edited)
Also, are there really only 62 people who are perfect in the battle contest? That has to be wrong, right?

Edit: Looking at the banking stats and how many won each match, there's no way there's only 62 people perfect.
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Current Let's Play: Final Fantasy IV (FF2US)
http://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3445328
#485 | ffmasterjose | Posted 11/5/2011 9:10:59 AM | message detail
Aww yeah looks like I'll be hitting the Battle Challenge leaderboard after this match is over

Too bad its not the Leaderboard that counts >_>
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5/5 pts - GameFAQs' Rivalry Rumble
NP: Mega Man X/Zero > Captain Falcon/Shadow | Bartz/Gilgamesh > Guybrush/LeChuck
#486 | Team Rocket Elite (Moderator) | Posted 11/5/2011 9:11:11 AM | message detail
Score-Brackets-% Right
4--------6859------84.39
3--------6228------83.62
2--------2207------81.01
1--------205--------66.83
0--------53----------15.09

The perfects do slightly better than the -1s who do slightly better than the -2s. We still end up losing a fair number of 0 brackets with only 85% getting it "right". If they keep dropping on easy matches, there aren't going to be many 0 bracket left in only a few matches.

No one fell off the Top 50 this time. It was an easy match but usually it takes a few more matches before this happens.
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Pokemon VGC2011 NW Regional - Top 8
Pokemon VGC2011 US Nationals - 54th place
#487 | charmander6000 | Posted 11/5/2011 9:11:11 AM | message detail
Guybrush recovers nicely as voters randomly pick an option.
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/Rivalry%20BOP.xls
Rival Rumble: 4/4 Today: MMX/Zero & Bartz/Gilgamesh
#488 | Kotetsu534 | Posted 11/5/2011 9:11:34 AM | message detail
I'm pretty sure there's thousands of people who're perfect in the bracket challenge even though it says 62.
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Praise the Black Turtle, Game of the Decade Guru Champ.
(Well, I never promised creativity, did I?!)
#489 | Articuno2001 | Posted 11/5/2011 9:11:48 AM | message detail

From: Not_Wylvane | #484
Also, are there really only 62 people who are perfect in the battle contest? That has to be wrong, right?

Edit: Looking at the banking stats and how many won each match, there's no way there's only 62 people perfect.


Better for me, then, since I am one of those 62 people (but not on the leaderboard)
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2011 Rivalry Rumble Contest - 4/4 points, Today: Mega Man X/Zero, Bartz Klauser/Gilgamesh
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#490 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 11/5/2011 9:12:05 AM | message detail

From: ffmasterjose | #485
Aww yeah looks like I'll be hitting the Battle Challenge leaderboard after this match is over

Too bad its not the Leaderboard that counts >_>


Hell, I might end up on both leaderboards, which would be awesome.

Granted, it'd only be for half a day as I'm banking for DK/Ezio.
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Current Let's Play: Final Fantasy IV (FF2US)
http://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3445328
#491 | charmander6000 | Posted 11/5/2011 9:13:07 AM | message detail
The perfects do slightly better than the -1s who do slightly better than the -2s. We still end up losing a fair number of 0 brackets with only 85% getting it "right". If they keep dropping on easy matches, there aren't going to be many 0 bracket left in only a few matches.

You gotta also remember that some of those 0 brackets could be favourites. I'm guessing not too many 0 brackets were made.
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/Rivalry%20BOP.xls
Rival Rumble: 4/4 Today: MMX/Zero & Bartz/Gilgamesh
#492 | PartOfYourWorld | Posted 11/5/2011 9:14:35 AM | message detail

From: charmander6000 | #487
Guybrush recovers nicely as voters randomly pick an option.


lol so true
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#493 | ffmasterjose | Posted 11/5/2011 9:14:36 AM | message detail
I really don't want to Bank on DK v. Ezio in the off chance that my Ezio upset is actually right, but I also don't want to lose all mah points. Decisions decisions.
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5/5 pts - GameFAQs' Rivalry Rumble
NP: Mega Man X/Zero > Captain Falcon/Shadow | Bartz/Gilgamesh > Guybrush/LeChuck
#494 | Oxbridge | Posted 11/5/2011 9:15:14 AM | message detail
I calculate 1800 perfects as a MINIMUM. (mario/bowser picks minus all the other banks and losers numbers)

Sorry, the stats are glitched.
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#495 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 11/5/2011 9:15:30 AM | message detail
Bartz is really bleeding percentage.
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Current Let's Play: Final Fantasy IV (FF2US)
http://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3445328
#496 | FateStayAlbion | Posted 11/5/2011 9:16:49 AM | message detail | (edited)
How bad of a board vote do you have if you get back 5% in 2 updates from a FF dude
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#497 | Team Rocket Elite (Moderator) | Posted 11/5/2011 9:16:43 AM | message detail
You gotta also remember that some of those 0 brackets could be favourites. I'm guessing not too many 0 brackets were made.

That's true. It must kinda suck to have the pairing you like lose 5 matches in a row.
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Pokemon VGC2011 NW Regional - Top 8
Pokemon VGC2011 US Nationals - 54th place
#498 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 11/5/2011 9:18:29 AM | message detail
Since everyone's not posting due to them readying themselves for the 500 post, I'll bite the 498 bullet.
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http://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3445328
#499 | charmander6000 | Posted 11/5/2011 9:19:07 AM | message detail
That's true. It must kinda suck to have the pairing you like lose 5 matches in a row.

The best example I can remember is the one in 2005 where something like almost 50% of the 0s called Samus/Yuri correct.
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/Rivalry%20BOP.xls
Rival Rumble: 4/4 Today: MMX/Zero & Bartz/Gilgamesh
#500 | ffmasterjose | Posted 11/5/2011 9:19:26 AM | message detail
Yoink
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5/5 pts - GameFAQs' Rivalry Rumble
NP: Mega Man X/Zero > Captain Falcon/Shadow | Bartz/Gilgamesh > Guybrush/LeChuck