GameFAQs Contests
Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1010
"My name is Dainty." F*** my life. ~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~ www.gamefaqscontests.com ~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~ http://board8.wikia.com/ ~*List of All Polls (a search bar is at the bottom)*~ http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html ~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~ http://www.thengamer.com/ http://thengamer.com/xstats ~*GameFAQs Contests Hall of Fame*~ http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Hall_of_Fame http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Match_Hall_of_Fame ~*Character Contest Histories*~ http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories ~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~ A = Strongest Character B = Character Weaker than A C = Character Weaker than B To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA ~*All the Match Pics*~ http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/index.php ~*Leonhart4's Trend Charts*~ https://spreadsheets.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?hl=en&key=tOGmynfNIiNy5VukpEF-PdA&hl=en#gid=0 ~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~ http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages ~*Say What? Common Stats Topic Lingo Defined*~ SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote. This is the best example of SFF we've ever seen. However take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make perfect sense. Extrapolated Standings - The mathematical "strength" of a contestant that's determined based on their performance relative to the rest of the field. This number is typically based on the contest entrant's loss, but adjustments are sometimes made. See above for a watered down explanation for how the stats are calculated. --- ·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.~*ST*~.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.· http://www.gifbin.com/bin/052009/1242032359_haters-gonna-hate.gif |
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ya go my kirby meta knights --- "So cold. I am always by your side." "There ain't no gettin' off of this train we on!" |
Crono: ..... Magus: ....... Squall: ... Link: ...!!! --- 90s games > 00s games |
There will be more posts in the stats topics this contest than votes in the contest itself. --- ##Alec |
I
like how it's easy for me to twist this result into good things for
some of later predictions. All pointless, however, if I'm already
eliminated from the Guru. Hope this one blip isn't enough. --- Yoblazer: http://i43.tinypic.com/25z1non.jpg Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world! |
bahaha for some reason i accidentally had conker/poo for my battle picks --- ~Acting on Impulse~ Black Turtle still didn't MAJORA'S MASK |
Who did everyone choose for Bartz vs. Guybrush? --- peace comes from within |
America
offering a staunch defense for Kirby, when much of the rest of the
world is pulling for Jill. Taking no chances after Brawl slipped through
last year! --- "Getting lucky 100% of the time... it's called PRO SKILL." -BlAcK TuRtLe |
I
like how it's easy for me to twist this result into good things for
some of later predictions. All pointless, however, if I'm already
eliminated from the Guru. Hope this one blip isn't enough. Bad news there: http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/60840857/677791277 It looks like Tofa7 will eliminate you. --- Pokemon VGC2011 NW Regional - Top 8 Pokemon VGC2011 US Nationals - 54th place |
Glad Zelda is two weeks away. --- Yoblazer: http://oi53.tinypic.com/2hd0dh1.jpg Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world! |
ZFS posted... Who did everyone choose for Bartz vs. Guybrush? Not Guybrush. --- Black Turtle did a pretty good job. |
Also went with the Bartz! --- peace comes from within |
From: PartOfYourWorld | #011 This will hopefully help me forget how bad this contest will be. --- ##Alec |
Look at Kirby dropping all that %. --- Black Turtle did a pretty good job. |
ZFS posted... Also went with the Bartz! who wouldn't seriously that's like thinking earthworm jim had a chance --- ~Acting on Impulse~ Black Turtle still didn't MAJORA'S MASK |
Looks like he'll end up ~61%, maybe even 60 and change. --- "Getting lucky 100% of the time... it's called PRO SKILL." -BlAcK TuRtLe |
ZFS posted... Also went with the Bartz! Every time I see that name, it makes me think of Barqs Root Beer. --- PSN - Aevio BlackMageJawa - "I'm on a Goomba." |
Makes me think of the Simpsons. --- All characters should be allowed in the next contest, fictional or not. |
From: PartOfYourWorld | #006 How the hell? Already? --- ¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.~*ST*~.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸ Truly, if there is a god of destiny, he is fond of plot twists. |
Wow that sucks. The percentage is finally looking like it's well on its way to my oracle predix. |
the vote totals seriously make me feel kind of depressed wow --- -_-...-_- ...-_-... Bera:12x Ice/Lit Mage |
Kirby's been dropping % in the states since the board vote, but he's actually gained a bit in Europe. --- "Getting lucky 100% of the time... it's called PRO SKILL." -BlAcK TuRtLe |
And Jill finally gets her first cut. They should happen more often once we reach 5:00 AM. --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as BlAcK TuRtLe, Guru Champ! |
Mannequin Depressive posted... the vote totals seriously make me feel kind of depressed wow Holy crap, my old board hunting buddy. Still depressed about nothing, I see >_> --- Get the X out. Vinateri was using his god powers on the Pats and then was like "Wait I'm a Colt now lol" and now you have it. |
Wow this contest...only 15552 people made their bracket This is half from last contest... (If im not wrong,301 people were 0.96% of the totals which means around 31354,no?) |
I blame the bad contest idea for these lackluster votals. --- GT: TriggerTRE PSN: SolidTRE Dilated -ChemisTRE- |
I
don't agree that the contest idea is resulting in poor vote totals.
It's all because GameFAQs is receiving a lot less traffic than it used
to have and that has the biggest effect on vote totals. This has been
very obvious as the last 3 months of non-contest polls have had some of
the worst vote totals ever seen since early 2003. Last 3 months of
non-contest polls have slightly better vote totals than the polls from
the last 3 months of 2002. Smurf already pointed out in the previous topic that the poor vote totals can't be blamed on the contest idea and I have to agree with him on that one. --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as BlAcK TuRtLe, Guru Champ! |
I'm
still in shock our best and most consistent user at making brackets is
out of the guru after 3 matches, in what might be the most predictable
contest since 2004. --- "Ulti is kinda like the sun. Just like how the Earth revolves around the sun, Board 8 seems to revolve around Ulti." -Zylo |
That's what you get for picking some resident evil character over Kirby on NintendoFAQS. --- Congratulations to BlAcK TuRtLe, the Guru champion for the 2010 GotD. |
Ezio > Donkey Kong really needs to happen. And I'm pretty sure it will, fortunately. --- Love was invented by guys like me, to sell nylons. |
Now I'm not so sure about Ezio>DK or Chell>Ness. I was expecting this to be much closer. --- *huggles* |
FIRST BLOOD! Sorry Yoblazer. Don't worry though, i'll end up winning this thing and you can take second place. It really is ridiculous how similar everyone's brackets seem to be. If it wasn't for the SouthWest Division this would a very predictable contest. --- Tofa7 - LoZ-LoD | Hardcore "Thank you, thank you, no applause necessary, just send money..." |
Well,
Jill managed to drag it down to a more reasonable number to fall in
line with Kirby > Jill with the difference extended a bit by
Meta-Knight being likely well above Nemesis, Villains' Contest X-stats
be damned. Although these votals are making me feel really really awful about Gordon/Breen over Phoenix/Edgeworth. --- http://i259.photobucket.com/albums/hh293/zukiraphaera/war-sig-1.png http://i.imgur.com/FII1z.gif |
Jeesh North America certainly likes their Kirby. --- Smurf, the cream of Sonic fanboyism |
60k votals per day isn't so bad. --- caps |
quite the drop Kirby had at night --- BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/Rivalry%20BOP.xls Rival Rumble: 2/2 Today: Kirby/Meta Knight & Sonic/Robotnik |
Wow, Kirby bled a good bit overnight. --- Sack Up Or Shut Up™ |
Jill/Nemesis are winning Europe, Asia and South America. If only North America wasn't so obsessed with Nintendo, this match could have been really good. --- http://images.wikia.com/finalfantasy/images/0/0e/Ffx-bahamut.jpg Support Bahamut if we ever get another real contest. |
Come on Jill, burn off 1 more percentage point... Get Kirby under 58 for my spread bet. --- http://img.imgcake.com/drakeryn/tiroalecjpgap.jpg http://img.imgcake.com/drakeryn/alecjpgyt.jpg |
Haha wow. This result ended up looking pretty normal after all. --- Black Turtle did a pretty good job. |
Match IV: (2) Sonic the Hedgehog/Dr. Robotnik vs. (7) Katherine/Catherine Previous Contest Sonic the Hedgehog – 2010 63.86% against Lightning 67.61% against Knuckles the Echidna 57.18% against Ganondorf 54.61% against Kirby 29.77% against Link Dr. Robotnik – Villains 2005 51.32% against Sin 59.50% against Master Hand 23.36% against Ganondorf Katherine – N/A N/A Catherine – N/A N/A Analysis After trying for a few contests the board and Atlus fans in general have finally got one of their own in a contest setting. Sonic may not be the same from the early days, but he’s still one of the strongest characters in the bracket and the only thing stopping him from his long awaited match against Mario is round 2 and even then most people see that as being unlikely. The only information that we have on Katherine and Catherine is their performance from the vote-in where they were able to defeat Lloyd/Kratos and Arthas/Illidan, not the strongest opponents, but far from turbo fodder. Of course Atlus fans seem to be very loyal, though small so looking good in a 12-way match is probably easier than looking good in a one on one setting. On the other hand the girls will have the advantage of having pictures this time around which could attract some voters should they not care much towards Sonic. I’ve seen some predictions hitting almost 80%, though I don’t think those predictors are giving the cult fanbase enough credit plus the few that may be swayed from the picture. There is also some resentment towards Sonic and while his image is getting better from the last few games there are still some old fans that feel that they have been betrayed. Either way I don’t feel that the duo can pull off the tripling, but anything under 70% and the board may be hyping the upset next round. charmander6000’s Bracket: Sonic the Hedgehog/Dr. Robotnik > Katherine/Catherine charmander6000’s Prediction: Sonic the Hedgehog/Dr. Robotnik wins, 72.74% - 27.26% --- BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/Rivalry%20BOP.xls Rival Rumble: 2/2 Today: Kirby/Meta Knight & Sonic/Robotnik |
yo man it's TEN TEN --- You beat yourself up with your past. Don't blame yourself, blame the world. Blame God. Blame me. |
anything under 75% and the board may be hyping the upset next round. Fixed. --- Official Queen ***** of the Universe! |
75-25
is pretty much the expected result. I'd imagine Sonic would need to dip
deep into the 60's for him to be in Kirby territory. Which was always
going to be a pretty illogical upset pick to begin with. --- Smurf, the cream of Sonic fanboyism |
00:05:05 | 67.49% 10:14:05 | 58.77% Woo Kirby --- Black Turtle did a pretty good job. |
Well, hopefully Kirby can at least beat Sonic at the freeze. --- [NO BARKLEY NO PEACE] |
00:05:05 | 67.49% 10:14:05 | 58.77% joke character --- I wish I could wear skirts and dresses :( -GMUN |
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=4512®ion=EUR http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=4512®ion=NAM hmm --- Smurf, the cream of Sonic fanboyism |
I'm
still in shock our best and most consistent user at making brackets is
out of the guru after 3 matches, in what might be the most predictable
contest since 2004. Actually, the contest being predictable makes it easier for users to be eliminated early, because we don't have debatable high-stakes matches near the end of the contest to allow the possibility of significant point swings which keep people alive. Also, having a bracket very close to the cookie and having your upsets miss is the #1 way to get eliminated early. All yo has in the way of risks is Jill/Nemesis and Red/Blue twice, and picking Red/Blue barely constitutes an upset pick. Going -1 with no significant way to make up points on the field is what doomed him. Does this mean that cookie cutters are more likely to be eliminated? No, they're just more likely to be eliminated early. That guy with Hitler winning the whole thing? He'll be alive for the entire first round for sure, and the entire second round if Hitler pulls it off. He has an extremely high chance to be eliminated later on though. One more thing about yo's bracket: if Jill/Nemesis had pulled it off, he's be in position to get lots of eliminations. When I led the guru in eliminations as ToadYoshi in CBVIII, it's because I mostly followed the cookie in later rounds and hit all my key first round upsets. I remember being up for elimination three of four times in just the first round, because picking near the cookie makes it hard for anyone to make up points on you and equally hard for you to make up points on anyone. It's initially seems odd that yo's gone already, but remember that under slightly different circumstances he'd be the frontrunner. --- Bracket: Cookie with Tidus/Jecht x2, Luigi > Trainers, Dante > Sora and AlucarddraculA over the greatest rivalry of all time |
