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GameFAQs Contests

Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1009

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#351 | PartOfYourWorld | Posted 11/3/2011 9:12:59 PM | message detail

From: LeonhartFour | #341
NOT SO FAST

Let's not jump to the conclusion that Red/Blue's going to "out-rival" Ryu/Ken here!


They certainly out-game them, though. Judging by this match, Kirby and MK are clearly overperforming based on what we expected from 1v1 matches. This is way, way north of what Kirby had on Rikku, and I wouldn't take Jill to lose against her. What accounts for such an overperformance? I'd say it's gotta be the biggest games for each rep, which in this case is Melee/Brawl.

All just speculation at this point, but this match certainly isn't making me feel worse about Red/Blue. Or any Nintendo team.
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#352 | Team Rocket Elite (Moderator) | Posted 11/3/2011 9:13:10 PM | message detail
Score-Brackets-% Right
1--------15391----63.67
0--------161--------35.40

Nothing really special here. It'll take a few more matches for the different scoring tiers to spread out a bit.

12 people fell off the Top 50 today. Former first place Viviff, former second place HeroicTombolo, gitanil2, bassdeluxe27, JKGibson2, Perfect_Bracket, Asrun_Dream, Happynoodleboy4, TomNook7, feartheducky, Apollo_Phoenix and MrSmartGuy sided with Conker vs Poo over Ike vs Black Knight.
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#353 | UltimaterializerX | Posted 11/3/2011 9:16:25 PM | message detail | (edited)

From: FFDragon | #347
UltimaterializerX posted...
RE3 is a bad game.

You shut your whorish mouth.


I might be a whore, but bad is bad.

4 > REmake > 2 > CVX > 5 > 3 > 0
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#354 | red sox 777 | Posted 11/3/2011 9:14:03 PM | message detail
It could be that Nemesis sucks. He has decent numbers from 2005, but that was 6 years ago after all.
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#355 | LeonhartFour | Posted 11/3/2011 9:14:09 PM | message detail
The fact that Ryu can be as darn popular as he is despite the fact that fighting games aren't very popular here probably speaks to how large SF2's playrate is.

Probably means a lot of the voters "respect" Ryu, too, if they're willing to vote him so highly but not his games.
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#356 | KamikazePotato | Posted 11/3/2011 9:14:24 PM | message detail
Wait why would a significant amount of people that have played RBY but not Street Fighter vote Ryu > Red then see this is as a rivalry contest and switch to Red/Blue > Ryu/Ken?

Bad comparison anyway because Red isn't going to be nearly as strong as Red/Blue regardless, but essentially, yes. People equate rivalries with games more easily. The pics will help with that, too.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#357 | LeonhartFour | Posted 11/3/2011 9:14:31 PM | message detail

From: KamikazePotato | #350
Playrate + popularity = more rivalry power. It's pretty simple!


Oh good

Ryu/Ken should be fine then
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#358 | UltimaterializerX | Posted 11/3/2011 9:15:09 PM | message detail
I think the overperformance comes from people not giving a crap about the rivalry and just voting for their favorite character. This poll is Jill Valentine against 2 people because no one gives a crap about Nemesis.

ie, my Luigi > Pokemon upset is a really dumb pick now.
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#359 | FFDragon | Posted 11/3/2011 9:15:24 PM | message detail
When did you turn around on RE5? I thought you were staunchly opposed?
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#360 | LeonhartFour | Posted 11/3/2011 9:15:32 PM | message detail
And there's the big drop for Kirby/Meta Knight.
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#361 | red sox 777 | Posted 11/3/2011 9:15:54 PM | message detail
Well, the shoe finally dropped and Kirby lost a percent.
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#362 | UltimaterializerX | Posted 11/3/2011 9:16:36 PM | message detail
CVX ahead of 5, my bad.
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#363 | FateStayAlbion | Posted 11/3/2011 9:16:41 PM | message detail
Jill is winning in both Europe and Asia. Could see a lot of bleeding over night from the percentage its at now.
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#364 | KamikazePotato | Posted 11/3/2011 9:16:45 PM | message detail
Ryu does well because he's a fighting game symbol. No other fighting game character comes anywhere near to him. He's similar to Dante in that regard - and guess what, after this result, Dante/Vergil are in a boatload of trouble as well.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#365 | TheCodeisBosco | Posted 11/3/2011 9:16:53 PM | message detail
UltimaterializerX posted...
ie, my Luigi > Pokemon upset is a really dumb pick now.

Keep the faith, man. GoodTasteFAQs will prevail!

(...hopefully?)
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#366 | charmander6000 | Posted 11/3/2011 9:16:58 PM | message detail
Bad comparison anyway because Red isn't going to be nearly as strong as Red/Blue regardless, but essentially, yes. People equate rivalries with games more easily. The pics will help with that, too.

That still doesn't make sense because you're assuming that people would vote against a character from a game that they have played against a character from a game they haven't played yet switch it up in a rivalry format.

If you aren't willing to vote for a character you've played over a character you've never played then you probably didn't like the character in the first place.
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/Rivalry%20BOP.xls
Rival Rumble: 2/2 Today: Kirby/Meta Knight & Sonic/Robotnik
#367 | pjbasis | Posted 11/3/2011 9:17:17 PM | message detail

From: UltimaterializerX | #358
I think the overperformance comes from people not giving a crap about the rivalry and just voting for their favorite character. This poll is Jill Valentine against 2 people because no one gives a crap about Nemesis.

ie, my Luigi > Pokemon upset is a really dumb pick now.


Eh? Wouldn't that benefit Luigi, seeing as he's way stronger than the other two.
#368 | KamikazePotato | Posted 11/3/2011 9:17:22 PM | message detail
GoodTasteFAQs would have Luigi/Waluigi going out in Round 1.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#369 | FFDragon | Posted 11/3/2011 9:17:25 PM | message detail
(2 > REMake > CVX > 4 > 5 > 0 > 3 > UC > DC > Survivor

With everything above Survivor being 'good' and everything above UC being 'great' tbqh)
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#370 | XIII_rocks | Posted 11/3/2011 9:18:05 PM | message detail
#371 | Greyfeld | Posted 11/3/2011 9:18:32 PM | message detail
KamikazePotato posted...
Wait why would a significant amount of people that have played RBY but not Street Fighter vote Ryu > Red then see this is as a rivalry contest and switch to Red/Blue > Ryu/Ken?

Bad comparison anyway because Red isn't going to be nearly as strong as Red/Blue regardless, but essentially, yes. People equate rivalries with games more easily. The pics will help with that, too.


Your assumption is that people give a crap about the trainers to begin with. Ryu/Ken has zilch to worry about, unless they go up against a pic with Charizard/Blastoise in the background.

RBY is popular. Charizard is popular. Red is fodder. Nobody cares about the trainers, they care about the pokemon.
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#372 | PartOfYourWorld | Posted 11/3/2011 9:18:58 PM | message detail | (edited)
By the way, there's a great chance that this will be our first ever match to finish with under 30k votes.

EDIT: CERTAINLY NOT THE LAST.
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#373 | KamikazePotato | Posted 11/3/2011 9:18:44 PM | message detail
That still doesn't make sense because you're assuming that people would vote against a character from a game that they have played against a character from a game they haven't played yet switch it up in a rivalry format.

This is the basis of the contest. You're basically arguing that the contest format won't affect anything at all. In which case, go ahead.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#374 | charmander6000 | Posted 11/3/2011 9:18:53 PM | message detail
ie, my Luigi > Pokemon upset is a really dumb pick now.

I would take Luigi to get 50% in a three-way poll.
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/Rivalry%20BOP.xls
Rival Rumble: 2/2 Today: Kirby/Meta Knight & Sonic/Robotnik
#375 | LeonhartFour | Posted 11/3/2011 9:18:54 PM | message detail

From: KamikazePotato | #364
Ryu does well because he's a fighting game symbol.


Which means he's respected as such. And he doesn't get to do well as a fighting game symbol unless SF2 has a high play rate. I'd be shocked if more than 20% of GameFAQs had never played ANY kind of Street Fighter at least once.

Which means people would probably respect his rivalry with Ken as well.
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#376 | KamikazePotato | Posted 11/3/2011 9:19:14 PM | message detail
Red/Blue will have Pokemon in the pictures every round, most likely.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#377 | KamikazePotato | Posted 11/3/2011 9:19:51 PM | message detail
LeonhartFour posted...
From: KamikazePotato | #364
I'd be shocked if more than 20% of GameFAQs had never played ANY kind of Street Fighter at least once..


http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3398
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#378 | LeonhartFour | Posted 11/3/2011 9:19:51 PM | message detail
Either way, this result means we may be in for some interesting results somewhere down the line, so there may be some hope for this contest yet.
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#379 | LeonhartFour | Posted 11/3/2011 9:20:21 PM | message detail
#380 | TheCodeisBosco | Posted 11/3/2011 9:21:13 PM | message detail
KamikazePotato posted...
GoodTasteFAQs would have Luigi/Waluigi going out in Round 1.

Is this because you prefer Cecil/Golbez, or because you hate Waluigi?

If it's because you prefer the FF guys, that's cool. But if you hate Waluigi, you wouldn't even be allowed to make an account on GoodTasteFAQs. :P
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#381 | UltimaterializerX | Posted 11/3/2011 9:21:32 PM | message detail

From: KamikazePotato | #364
Ryu does well because he's a fighting game symbol. No other fighting game character comes anywhere near to him. He's similar to Dante in that regard - and guess what, after this result, Dante/Vergil are in a boatload of trouble as well.


I wouldn't go that far. I know the Kingdom Hearts series better than almost anyone on this board, and Riku seriously hasn't had a relevant appearance in it since Chain of Memories. FYI, people HATED Chain of Memories. Almost all his strength comes from the original game. He's barely even in 2 or any game after 2.

The same almost goes for Sora. He's done nothing since 2 and we're a full year from the whole series sans Roxas looking like garbage last year. Probably because Roxas is actually playable in Fraction Days, but still. Dante probably gets 54% on Sora straight up.
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#382 | LordOfDabu | Posted 11/3/2011 9:21:59 PM | message detail
Isn't Kirby "overperforming" because his new game just came out
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#383 | charmander6000 | Posted 11/3/2011 9:22:09 PM | message detail
This is the basis of the contest. You're basically arguing that the contest format won't affect anything at all. In which case, go ahead.

Rivalry factor will be in effect, but only in matches where the voter has played both games. You aren't going to vote for a rivalry of a game you haven't played over your favourite character likewise, if you've never played Street Fighter and would take Ryu > Red then it's likely you don't care much about pokemon and won't vote for the rivalry unless you are a Blue fan.

To voters that have played both games Ryu/Ken is just as strong as Red/Blue.
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/Rivalry%20BOP.xls
Rival Rumble: 2/2 Today: Kirby/Meta Knight & Sonic/Robotnik
#384 | KamikazePotato | Posted 11/3/2011 9:22:17 PM | message detail
I like Waluigi. Luigi/Waluigi is the worst rivalry in the bracket by a fairly good margin. It's almost completely nonexistent in the games themselves. Cecil/Golbez is much, much better.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#385 | LeonhartFour | Posted 11/3/2011 9:22:28 PM | message detail

From: UltimaterializerX | #381
I wouldn't go that far. I know the Kingdom Hearts series better than almost anyone on this board, and Riku seriously hasn't had a relevant appearance in it since Chain of Memories. FYI, people HATED Chain of Memories. Almost all his strength comes from the original game. He's barely even in 2 or any game after 2.

The same almost goes for Sora. He's done nothing since 2 and we're a full year from the whole series sans Roxas looking like garbage last year. Probably because Roxas is actually playable in Fraction Days, but still. Dante probably gets 54% on Sora straight up.


I think the issue is that KH kills DMC3 in playrate.

Either of the main games.
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#386 | LeonhartFour | Posted 11/3/2011 9:23:09 PM | message detail

From: LordOfDabu | #382
Isn't Kirby "overperforming" because his new game just came out


It's possible that there's SOME overperformance.

But it wouldn't push 60/40 to 66/34.
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#387 | JaKyL25 | Posted 11/3/2011 9:23:32 PM | message detail
Nemesis: "S.T.A.R.S....."

Kirby: *Uses Warp Star*
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#388 | Team Rocket Elite (Moderator) | Posted 11/3/2011 9:24:00 PM | message detail
Isn't Kirby "overperforming" because his new game just came out

Kirby games aren't really all that popular here, right? I can't see it giving such a large boost to Kirby.
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#389 | LOLContests | Posted 11/3/2011 9:24:14 PM | message detail
People are underestimating Meta Knight. He might actually keep things close against Jill or beat her 1v1. So that's basically two characters better than the RE duo's best character. And Nemesis is probably no better than high end fodder himself. I don't think he's that bad (he looked good in 2005 and both of the RE character polls we've had since then), but he's not helping any when there's two midcarders to contend with.
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#390 | KamikazePotato | Posted 11/3/2011 9:24:18 PM | message detail
LeonhartFour posted...
From: KamikazePotato | #377
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3398
"Never liked" =/= "Never played"


Come on.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#391 | pjbasis | Posted 11/3/2011 9:24:55 PM | message detail
Yeah but the overlap between DMC and KH obviously prefers DMC.
#392 | LordOfDabu | Posted 11/3/2011 9:25:30 PM | message detail
Why not? Lower vote totals will cause any factor to have an exaggerated effect.
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#393 | LeonhartFour | Posted 11/3/2011 9:25:34 PM | message detail

From: KamikazePotato | #390
Come on.


Not really sure what the issue is here. I'm sure there are plenty of people who've played SF and didn't like it, and never played another game in the series.
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#394 | TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 11/3/2011 9:25:40 PM | message detail
Wow, Nemesis suckssssss and MetaKnight is surprisingly decent
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#395 | TheCodeisBosco | Posted 11/3/2011 9:26:47 PM | message detail
KamikazePotato posted...
I like Waluigi. Luigi/Waluigi is the worst rivalry in the bracket by a fairly good margin. It's almost completely nonexistent in the games themselves. Cecil/Golbez is much, much better.

We're cool, in that case! This is definitely understandable. I'm hoping Luigi/Waluigi do well, simply because I want the trainers to flop; but indeed, the rivalry itself was kind of a weird choice for the bracket. They're two great characters that barely have any sort of rivalry.
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#396 | LeonhartFour | Posted 11/3/2011 9:26:54 PM | message detail

From: LordOfDabu | #392
Why not? Lower vote totals will cause any factor to have an exaggerated effect.


Not necessarily.

Percentages don't usually change much between 30,000 votes and 50,000 votes. Once they settle in, they don't shift too much.

I mean, unless we're saying that a large chunk of the voters who stayed are Kirby fans or the ones who left are RE fans.
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#397 | BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 11/3/2011 9:27:19 PM | message detail

From: tgs2 | #335
Apparently a contest is happening. Guess I can take this old sig off now.

didn't think I was that fast at submitting a bracket as I'm in top 50 somehow.


You realize the Guru is only like a 2 week sig bet right? At least that was always my assumption. I just figured everyone was lazy.
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#398 | LeonhartFour | Posted 11/3/2011 9:27:42 PM | message detail

From: BlAcK TuRtLe | #397
I just figured everyone was lazy.


Bingo.
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#399 | UltimaterializerX | Posted 11/3/2011 9:28:25 PM | message detail

From: KamikazePotato | #384
I like Waluigi. Luigi/Waluigi is the worst rivalry in the bracket by a fairly good margin. It's almost completely nonexistent in the games themselves. Cecil/Golbez is much, much better.


Rivalries worse than Wa/Luigi:

Bartz/Gilgamesh (joke boss does not a rivalry make, not to mention Gilgamesh liking the guy but I won't go into spoilers)
Leon/Ada (not a rivalry in any sense in any game)
Yuna/Seymour (pretty much every party member EXCEPT Yuna has good reason for wanting Seymour dead)
Gordon/Breen (never played HL2, just going by what people say, you can ignore this if I'm wrong)
Ness/Giygas (not a rivalry in EarthBound, this should have been Ness vs Porky)
Crono/Lavos (not a rivalry, Crono doesn't really have one except MAYBE Queen Zeal)
BJ/Hitler (one boss fight is not a rivalry)
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#400 | KamikazePotato | Posted 11/3/2011 9:28:27 PM | message detail
Anyway, I'm not sure what the argument here is anyway. No one's saying Ryu/Ken don't get a rivalry boost. It's Ryu/Ken. But it could end up being a lot less than what some expected, and Red/Blue's might be a lot bigger than expected, based on arguments made pre-contest and somewhat supported by this poll. Of course, it's only been one match and this contest would very well end up being boring, but what's the point of having these discussions if you're going to ignore our first piece of evidence?
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.