GameFAQs Contests
Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1009
Why not begin this contest by participating in The GameFAQs Contests Hall of Fame http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/60791725 It only takes a couple minutes, and YOU get to help make B8 history! ~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~ www.gamefaqscontests.com ~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~ http://board8.wikia.com/ ~*List of All Polls (a search bar is at the bottom)*~ http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html ~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~ http://www.thengamer.com/ http://thengamer.com/xstats ~*GameFAQs Contests Hall of Fame*~ http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Hall_of_Fame http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Match_Hall_of_Fame ~*Character Contest Histories*~ http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories ~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~ A = Strongest Character B = Character Weaker than A C = Character Weaker than B To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA ~*All the Match Pics*~ http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/index.php ~*Leonhart4's Trend Charts*~ https://spreadsheets.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?hl=en&key=tOGmynfNIiNy5VukpEF-PdA&hl=en#gid=0 ~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~ http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages ~*Say What? Common Stats Topic Lingo Defined*~ SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote. This is the best example of SFF we've ever seen. However take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make perfect sense. Extrapolated Standings - The mathematical "strength" of a contestant that's determined based on their performance relative to the rest of the field. This number is typically based on the contest entrant's loss, but adjustments are sometimes made. See above for a watered down explanation for how the stats are calculated. --- Yoblazer: http://i33.tinypic.com/ml36gl_th.gif Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world! |
 
 |
These topics are still around? lol --- sig |
taggin dis --- ~Zen |
Explosion in t - 5 minutes... |
its over 9000 if it was backwards --- We may have years, we may have hours, but sooner or later we push up flowers. |
Looking good there Mario. --- Pokemon VGC2011 NW Regional - Top 8 Pokemon VGC2011 US Nationals - 54th place |
Mario layin' down the gauntlet. --- Vote for this guy in every contest: War |
It has begun --- GameFAQs isn't going to be merged in with GameSpot or any other site. We're not going to strip out the soul of the site. -CJayC |
Mario
looking good, but the night vote will drag him down based on initial
results. DST being over in Europe will delay the night vote though --- BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/Rivalry%20BOP.xls BOP Topic: http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/60566352 |
Nice the first stats topic of the contest season. |
Random
question: in my bracket, it doesn't seem to show my pick for the
actually winner of the contest, it just shows the "Final" matchup. IIRC, it wasn't like this in other contests. Is everyone's like this, or did I screw up and forget to pick a winner? >_> --- Q. If your canoe is in a tree with its headlights on, how many pancakes does it take to get to the moon? A. None. Snakes don't have armpits. |
Any idea how well liked Earthworm Jim is in Europe compared to North America? --- Pokemon VGC2011 NW Regional - Top 8 Pokemon VGC2011 US Nationals - 54th place |
This match. --- peace comes from within |
Everyone's bracket is like that. No worries. --- "Why must we always choose between certain death and probable death?" "I'm in an epic battle to the death, FIGURE IT OUT YOURSELF!" |
DST being in Europe only will delay the night vote though Yeah, this match started at 4:00 AM in the UK instead of 5:00 AM. And a 5:00 AM start time for most of Western Europe. Looking at the trends for the vote-in poll, Earthworm Jim is a night/morning vote guy. --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as BlAcK TuRtLe, Guru Champ! |
From: Team Rocket Elite | #014 http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=4480®ion=EUR Did about 2% better in Europe --- http://img600.imageshack.us/img600/8718/leonflowchart.png |
I really should have pulled the trigger on that Mario > Cloud final. |
From: ZFS | #015 Imagine how great 24 HOURS OF "THIS MATCH" will be! Only two more weeks, and we'll get it! --- Yoblazer: http://i43.tinypic.com/25z1non.jpg Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world! |
I really should have pulled the trigger on that Mario > Cloud final. If you had a Mario/Cloud final you should have gone Mario. Mario/Link I think still had to go to Link though. |
24 hours of Ryu hadokening Samus bring it on --- peace comes from within |
LeonhartFour posted... Everyone's bracket is like that. No worries. Thanks, that's reassuring. :P --- Q. If your canoe is in a tree with its headlights on, how many pancakes does it take to get to the moon? A. None. Snakes don't have armpits. |
I wonder what rate we'll fill these things up during this contest. Feels like stat topic posts will go down with the vote totals. --- http://img38.imageshack.us/img38/7760/222bj.jpg |
Unless some get really good, the 24-hour matches will be like a board-wide sleeping pill. --- Yoblazer: http://oi53.tinypic.com/2hd0dh1.jpg Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world! |
Imagine how great 24 HOURS OF "THIS MATCH" will be! Only two more weeks, and we'll get it! I wouldn't mind that. I'm very busy over the next 24 hours, and I'd honestly prefer the next match start tomorrow night instead of tomorrow morning. --- 90s games > 00s games |
This
probably isn't a contest that will be worth following too much beyond
the first 15 minutes of the poll, minus those rare matches that might
end up being close. --- peace comes from within |
When do we get the final tally on entrants this year? --- http://27.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_liy1n4pVL71qfyz1jo1_500.gif |
same
I'll be missing the beginning of the match every tues and thurs and
will only see the first 10 min on the rest of the weekday. --- BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/Rivalry%20BOP.xls BOP Topic: http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/60566352 |
Here's hoping Cloud gets 90% on Lloyd. |
From: junk_funk | #028 After the first match if Bacon is on top of updating the leaderboard. --- http://i.minus.com/iH9vIGOBoyTQ2.gif |
Silverflash-x (Moderator) | Posted 11/3/2011 12:17:20 AM | message detail | quote Random question: in my bracket, it doesn't seem to show my pick for the actually winner of the contest, it just shows the "Final" matchup. IIRC, it wasn't like this in other contests. Is everyone's like this, or did I screw up and forget to pick a winner? >_> It just got fixed recently, as I noticed that my bracket now shows up correctly. --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as BlAcK TuRtLe, Guru Champ! |
Isn't
that what all contests are like? Decent debate for upcoming matches,
minimal debate during expected matches, and the board explodes during
close matches? I don't expect this contest to be different from any
other in that regard. |
The
votals being so low is probably really bad, but hopefully Crono will at
least benefit from it. And you know, Snake's worst years were the ones
with the lowest votals. So HOPE AND CHANGE I say. --- 90s games > 00s games |
Vote totals seem to be heading towards about 35k meaning we could see a match below 30k. --- BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/Rivalry%20BOP.xls BOP Topic: http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/60566352 |
That might be another reason for more 24-hour matches- these night match votals are just too low. --- 90s games > 00s games |
Isn't it supposed to be hard to have your percentage increase when you're already at like 85%? |
Hey, Earthworm Jim is winning in Russia, which gives quick impression that he's dominating Europe lol --- Yoblazer: http://8board.webs.com/ariel.jpg Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world! |
Russia actually makes that Europe map look amazing. |
That's
probably a myth. It's just as easy to move up or down at 85%, just as
it is at 50%. Though it may be hard to move up very much, but then, a
tiny increase at 85% will improve your x-stat by a lot. --- 90s games > 00s games |
Fallout 3/inFamous had 7500 votes at the end of the first hour. Looks like this match will get notably less. --- http://i.imgur.com/CbfFb.jpg |
Right now, the vote totals in this match are most similar to this match from last year: http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=4107&num=2 By the end of this hour, this match should have slightly over 6000 votes. --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as BlAcK TuRtLe, Guru Champ! |
So,
I see that creativename got the updater working. Here the vote totals
for the first 50 minutes of the match so they can be added to the
updater: Time | Mario | Jim 12:01 AM | 232 | 35 12:02 AM | 360 | 69 12:03 AM | 505 | 91 12:04 AM | 642 | 107 12:05 AM | 769 | 129 12:10 AM | 1307 | 211 12:15 AM | 1840 | 292 12:20 AM | 2278 | 357 12:25 AM | 2711 | 423 12:30 AM | 3056 | 478 12:35 AM | 3451 | 557 12:40 AM | 3817 | 606 12:45 AM | 4196 | 658 12:50 AM | 4567 | 714 --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as BlAcK TuRtLe, Guru Champ! |
Had a hiccup with theupdater and forgot to be around earlier. Should be OK now. I predicted 85% for this match because I think the anti-blowoutfaqs nature of the last contest is history. Too much fodder in this contest. And it's like a double-whallop - powerful characters will tend to have powerful rivals, thus you have two strong characters vs. two weak ones. Does not bode well for weaker characters. I foresee lots of epic blowouts to come. --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
http://image.com.com/gamefaqs/images/rivals/rivals-02.jpg This image has me feeling a little nervous... --- "I am riding the Poke-wave, using the metaphorical Surf and hopping on my Blastoise, all the way to Mario vs Bowser." - RPGLord |
From: red sox 777 | #040 Nah it's true. 050/100 = 50.00 051/101 = 50.50 099/100 = 99.00 100/101 = 99.01 |
Ike/BK v Conker/Poo is Ike v No Mercy 2.0 --- on 4ways: right now they have inherent flaws, but could be easily fixed by implementing approval voting! ~ToadYoshi 1. SoAL 2. MKW/64 3. FE7 4. TF2 5. FFCC |
I
mean, the probability that you will move up or down next is the same.
There's just less room to move up when you're at a higher percentage,
but this is counterbalanced by each increment having a greater impact on
your x-stat value. --- 90s games > 00s games |
As the amount of votes needed to move up increases, the probability should decrease right? |
Nope,
it stays the same. If Link has 99% of the vote against Tanner, that
means that 99% of the pool of voters prefer Link. So, there's a 99%
chance the next voter votes for Link, in which case Link moves up to,
say, 99.01%. There's a 1% chance the next voter votes Tanner, in which
case Link falls to say, 98%. --- 90s games > 00s games |
